Analysis Where to from here?

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Definitely one factor, but I think just as crucial are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders we didn't have because of players we brought in. And some were justified of course - Dangerfield the obvious one. But going back to McIntosh costing us a 2nd round pick, Higgins insanely costing us pick 30 and so on. It eventually adds up, and it has.
And it's not just the cost of the picks; it's that you trade in a ready-to-go senior player like Higgins or Smith or Steven, and you have to play him. That's games you're not putting into younger players. Opportunity cost.
 
And it's not just the cost of the picks; it's that you trade in a ready-to-go senior player like Higgins or Smith or Steven, and you have to play him. That's games you're not putting into younger players. Opportunity cost.
This is the thing though, trading in Smith makes sense. Left footer, has pace, has a tank, adds to a position we don't have someone for. If he teaches Clark how to be a great winger, that pays for itself not including the fact he had a lot of really good matches for us this season.

Steven and Higgins were poor decisions. If you are taking guys from another club, you take Premiership winners from a successful culture who can still perform at above an 8/10.

Steven was never successful and was never going to be an 8/10 or better and same for Higgins.

You want to poach from other clubs this preseason? Simple rules have to be get mids who are between 23 and 25 because thats the age bracket that kills us. Don't bother with anyone over 28 at all, and only take a player who is 26-28 if they come from a club who have had recent success and they are being forced out/not having gametime.

Looking at the out of contract list on Footywire, I wouldn't be touching anyone from Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne.

Looking at some notable OOC (not that all are gettable) why is everyone keen on Brander? Or why are we linked to him?
Would definitely be asking the Saints about Dunstan and maybe Billings, would be asking Richmond (doubt they would) about Chol, asking Hawthorn about Worpel.
Clubs might want overs, but that said if they are genuinely out of contract ask the question.

Really hope our scouts watched the SANFL and WAFL. Find a small forward with serious pace, they are out there. Maybe see what rucks are there.

There is talent to be had, just depends on what Scott wants. But this finals series has been dominated by rucks and small/medium goal scorers. We have Cameron who plays like a medium forward, and Rohan who went missing. And we have an average ruck in Stanley, and a poor ruck/forward in Esava.
 

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This is the thing though, trading in Smith makes sense. Left footer, has pace, has a tank, adds to a position we don't have someone for. If he teaches Clark how to be a great winger, that pays for itself not including the fact he had a lot of really good matches for us this season.

Steven and Higgins were poor decisions. If you are taking guys from another club, you take Premiership winners from a successful culture who can still perform at above an 8/10.

Steven was never successful and was never going to be an 8/10 or better and same for Higgins.

You want to poach from other clubs this preseason? Simple rules have to be get mids who are between 23 and 25 because thats the age bracket that kills us. Don't bother with anyone over 28 at all, and only take a player who is 26-28 if they come from a club who have had recent success and they are being forced out/not having gametime.

Looking at the out of contract list on Footywire, I wouldn't be touching anyone from Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne.

Looking at some notable OOC (not that all are gettable) why is everyone keen on Brander? Or why are we linked to him?
Would definitely be asking the Saints about Dunstan and maybe Billings, would be asking Richmond (doubt they would) about Chol, asking Hawthorn about Worpel.
Clubs might want overs, but that said if they are genuinely out of contract ask the question.

Really hope our scouts watched the SANFL and WAFL. Find a small forward with serious pace, they are out there. Maybe see what rucks are there.

There is talent to be had, just depends on what Scott wants. But this finals series has been dominated by rucks and small/medium goal scorers. We have Cameron who plays like a medium forward, and Rohan who went missing. And we have an average ruck in Stanley, and a poor ruck/forward in Esava.
Not sure but I think Brander is from around Geelong way.
 
This article spot on

Lachie Young opinion: Geelong’s time for reset has arrived
You have to admire the determination that Geelong has shown in fighting the AFL system for the past two decades, but off the back of what we have seen in the past six weeks, it should not be topping up again at the expense of going to the draft.

LACHIE YOUNGChief football writer

4 min read
September 12, 2021 - 4:57PM
Geelong Advertiser



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AFL: Geelong coach Chris Scott has revealed a virus almost forced the Cats to make wholesale changes to their team before their Preliminary Final against the Demons.


AT the start of the 2021 season, Cats’ president Craig Drummond sat down for an interview with the Geelong Advertiser.
Among a wide range of issues that was discussed was how the club measured success.
Drummond, a highly regarded businessman and administrator, pointed out quite plainly that while the board and executive’s role was to provide as much opportunity for the Cats to be in with a shot at the end of the year, the ultimate measure of success was winning the grand final.

“To be very clear, the objective of the club is to win premierships,” Drummond said.
“That is in our business plan … so that is what we are aiming for, that is what the ultimate success is, and Chris Scott and his team are very clear on what success looks like.
“What we have got to do as an organisation is give ourselves the best opportunity to be there at the pointy end of the season and I would say we have been successful as a club in giving our football program the best opportunity with the resourcing to be there each year, year in, year out, but ultimately let’s make no mistake, we want to win premierships.”
It is impossible not to admire the determination that Geelong has shown in fighting the AFL system for the better part of the past two decades.
While every club has had its turn towards the bottom part of the ladder, the lowest the Cats have finished since 2004 is 10th.
In that time they have made the finals 16 out of 18 years, played off in 12 preliminary finals, reached five grand finals and have won three premierships.
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It is an amazing feat, and Geelong has used the necessary tools available to it to stay in contention for as long as it could without ever ‘bottoming out’, but if the plan through all of this has been to win a premiership, rather than simply be a chance to win one, then for the past ten years it has not worked.
As harsh as it sounds, in the past decade the Cats have little to show for their aforementioned record, and part of the problem they have faced is that while they have rebuilt on the run by topping up with experienced players from rival clubs in order to stay in contention, opposition sides, for fleeting periods or otherwise, have gone past them.
Since 2011, Sydney, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast have all won flags, and in two weeks Melbourne could join the list – that is a third of the competition in ten years.
Remarkably, all of those sides have missed the finals since their premierships, but they took their opportunities when presented with them, which the Cats have not been able to do.
The other issue Geelong has created by topping up is that it has meant younger players on its list have been deprived of opportunities they might otherwise have had.
There is no question the Cats had every right to chase Jeremy Cameron at the end of last year because a fully fit Cameron could have been the final touch on a side that just missed a premiership in 2020.
So too Isaac Smith, and, while it doesn’t appear to have worked the way they would have liked, Shaun Higgins.
But 12 months on this team looks very different.
Geelong has always done list management differently but perhaps the time has come to concede that it has now run its race in terms of winning a flag because when taking a quick glance at the list of players from the preliminary final side who will be either 30 or older at the start of next season it is difficult to see where the improvement will come from.
Higgins, Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Smith, Zach Tuohy, Lachie Henderson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Gary Rohan, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola made up half of the side on Friday night, and while some of that group will stay at the level they were at this year, others will invariably slip away, which was evident late in the season.
Yes, Jack Henry will get even better in 2022, as will Esava Ratugolea, and Brad Close impressed for most of the year, but in the meantime, players such as Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Nathan Kreuger and Jordan Clark have not had enough opportunities for exposure at the top level and are now all potential candidates to walk out the door.
Since 2004 the highest draft pick Geelong has had is seven, during which time every other club has had at least one top five selection, and the two grand finalists this year will be led by top picks Marcus Bontempelli (four), Jackson Macrae (six), Bailey Smith (seven) and Aaron Naughton (nine) for the Bulldogs, and Christian Petracca (two), Clayton Oliver (four), Angus Brayshaw (three), Christian Salem (nine) and Luke Jackson (three) for the Demons.
Having tried and tried again to beat the system, now must surely be time to – at the very least – reconsider the approach that has seen Geelong come so close only to fall short each time.
Bringing in outside talent when you are a genuine contender is the right thing to do – just like Melbourne (Ben Brown) and the Bulldogs (Adam Treloar) did – but the Cats need to accept that they have taken their best shot with their core group of experienced senior players for six years now and missed.
Off the back of what we have seen in the last six weeks, they should not be topping up again at the expense of going to the draft.
Instead, it is time for Geelong to do what it did prior to 2004 and develop and select players who will form the nucleus of its next premiership team.
It worked then and, as has been proven by other clubs since, it can work now.

 
This article spot on

Lachie Young opinion: Geelong’s time for reset has arrived
You have to admire the determination that Geelong has shown in fighting the AFL system for the past two decades, but off the back of what we have seen in the past six weeks, it should not be topping up again at the expense of going to the draft.

LACHIE YOUNGChief football writer

4 min read
September 12, 2021 - 4:57PM
Geelong Advertiser



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AFL: Geelong coach Chris Scott has revealed a virus almost forced the Cats to make wholesale changes to their team before their Preliminary Final against the Demons.


AT the start of the 2021 season, Cats’ president Craig Drummond sat down for an interview with the Geelong Advertiser.
Among a wide range of issues that was discussed was how the club measured success.
Drummond, a highly regarded businessman and administrator, pointed out quite plainly that while the board and executive’s role was to provide as much opportunity for the Cats to be in with a shot at the end of the year, the ultimate measure of success was winning the grand final.

“To be very clear, the objective of the club is to win premierships,” Drummond said.
“That is in our business plan … so that is what we are aiming for, that is what the ultimate success is, and Chris Scott and his team are very clear on what success looks like.
“What we have got to do as an organisation is give ourselves the best opportunity to be there at the pointy end of the season and I would say we have been successful as a club in giving our football program the best opportunity with the resourcing to be there each year, year in, year out, but ultimately let’s make no mistake, we want to win premierships.”
It is impossible not to admire the determination that Geelong has shown in fighting the AFL system for the better part of the past two decades.
While every club has had its turn towards the bottom part of the ladder, the lowest the Cats have finished since 2004 is 10th.
In that time they have made the finals 16 out of 18 years, played off in 12 preliminary finals, reached five grand finals and have won three premierships.
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It is an amazing feat, and Geelong has used the necessary tools available to it to stay in contention for as long as it could without ever ‘bottoming out’, but if the plan through all of this has been to win a premiership, rather than simply be a chance to win one, then for the past ten years it has not worked.
As harsh as it sounds, in the past decade the Cats have little to show for their aforementioned record, and part of the problem they have faced is that while they have rebuilt on the run by topping up with experienced players from rival clubs in order to stay in contention, opposition sides, for fleeting periods or otherwise, have gone past them.
Since 2011, Sydney, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast have all won flags, and in two weeks Melbourne could join the list – that is a third of the competition in ten years.
Remarkably, all of those sides have missed the finals since their premierships, but they took their opportunities when presented with them, which the Cats have not been able to do.
The other issue Geelong has created by topping up is that it has meant younger players on its list have been deprived of opportunities they might otherwise have had.
There is no question the Cats had every right to chase Jeremy Cameron at the end of last year because a fully fit Cameron could have been the final touch on a side that just missed a premiership in 2020.
So too Isaac Smith, and, while it doesn’t appear to have worked the way they would have liked, Shaun Higgins.
But 12 months on this team looks very different.
Geelong has always done list management differently but perhaps the time has come to concede that it has now run its race in terms of winning a flag because when taking a quick glance at the list of players from the preliminary final side who will be either 30 or older at the start of next season it is difficult to see where the improvement will come from.
Higgins, Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Smith, Zach Tuohy, Lachie Henderson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Gary Rohan, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola made up half of the side on Friday night, and while some of that group will stay at the level they were at this year, others will invariably slip away, which was evident late in the season.
Yes, Jack Henry will get even better in 2022, as will Esava Ratugolea, and Brad Close impressed for most of the year, but in the meantime, players such as Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Nathan Kreuger and Jordan Clark have not had enough opportunities for exposure at the top level and are now all potential candidates to walk out the door.
Since 2004 the highest draft pick Geelong has had is seven, during which time every other club has had at least one top five selection, and the two grand finalists this year will be led by top picks Marcus Bontempelli (four), Jackson Macrae (six), Bailey Smith (seven) and Aaron Naughton (nine) for the Bulldogs, and Christian Petracca (two), Clayton Oliver (four), Angus Brayshaw (three), Christian Salem (nine) and Luke Jackson (three) for the Demons.
Having tried and tried again to beat the system, now must surely be time to – at the very least – reconsider the approach that has seen Geelong come so close only to fall short each time.
Bringing in outside talent when you are a genuine contender is the right thing to do – just like Melbourne (Ben Brown) and the Bulldogs (Adam Treloar) did – but the Cats need to accept that they have taken their best shot with their core group of experienced senior players for six years now and missed.
Off the back of what we have seen in the last six weeks, they should not be topping up again at the expense of going to the draft.
Instead, it is time for Geelong to do what it did prior to 2004 and develop and select players who will form the nucleus of its next premiership team.
It worked then and, as has been proven by other clubs since, it can work now.


Waiting for the numpties to tell us that drummond is wrong, and making top 4 and being flogged in finals is the real measurement of success 🙄
 
Not sure but I think Brander is from around Geelong way.

He's not from the Geelong region - he went to Geelong Grammar but he's from Mildura and was originally part of the GWS academy until that was rezoned
 
Waiting for the numpties to tell us that drummond is wrong, and making top 4 and being flogged in finals is the real measurement of success 🙄

Yep. From the words of the President no less. Can't wait to see the spin imparted on this one.

If anything the journalist didn't give Geelong enough credit with the "not bottoming out" line. It isn't since 2004 or the 'AFL' era, it goes way back before then. We have not finished bottom four since 1986. So there is no reason at all to think even by simply using existing picks that we need to plummet down the ladder. Never understood that argument nor agree with it.
 

all well and good... and of course ... I believe in this part of the article ....

Since 2004 the highest draft pick Geelong has had is seven, during which time every other club has had at least one top five selection, and the two grand finalists this year will be led by top picks Marcus Bontempelli (four), Jackson Macrae (six), Bailey Smith (seven) and Aaron Naughton (nine) for the Bulldogs, and Christian Petracca (two), Clayton Oliver (four), Angus Brayshaw (three), Christian Salem (nine) and Luke Jackson (three) for the Demons.

Having tried and tried again to beat the system, now must surely be time to – at the very least – reconsider the approach that has seen Geelong come so close only to fall short each time.

Bringing in outside talent when you are a genuine contender is the right thing to do – just like Melbourne (Ben Brown) and the Bulldogs (Adam Treloar) did – but the Cats need to accept that they have taken their best shot with their core group of experienced senior players for six years now and missed.

Off the back of what we have seen in the last six weeks, they should not be topping up again at the expense of going to the draft.

Instead, it is time for Geelong to do what it did prior to 2004 and develop and select players who will form the nucleus of its next premiership team.

It worked then and, as has been proven by other clubs since, it can work now.


However I must ask ..where was this article 12 months ago .... and critically ... it draws attention to the lack of top end single figure picks at the draft compared to the clubs that beat them when it counts ..... but it doesn't say how we solve it this year. Gold Coast has three picks in the draft before we even have to turn on the computer ...

The article needs to go further and say that we need to find a way to get in early to the draft. Prob ably as a consequence of playing kids that occurs.
 
However I must ask ..where was this article 12 months ago .... and critically ... it draws attention to the lack of top end single figure picks at the draft compared to the clubs that beat them when it counts ..... but it doesn't say how we solve it this year. Gold Coast has three picks in the draft before we even have to turn on the computer ...

The article needs to go further and say that we need to find a way to get in early to the draft. Prob ably as a consequence of playing kids that occurs.

It also doesn't mention we traded picks away - a lot of them - to bring mature players to the club. It's why no one should complain about it now. They did it deliberately and it didn't work. Wasn't the AFL system, it was their own fault.
 
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Yep. From the words of the President no less. Can't wait to see the spin imparted on this one.

If anything the journalist didn't give Geelong enough credit with the "not bottoming out" line. It isn't since 2004 or the 'AFL' era, it goes way back before then. We have not finished bottom four since 1986. So there is no reason at all to think even by simply using existing picks that we need to plummet down the ladder. Never understood that argument nor agree with it.

I read all that... and all I see is ..geelong should be given credit for toying with the emotions of its supporters and all the while still managing to improve membership... an amazing feat of triumphant mediocrity, of bloody minded obstinance. A return to their historical norm of being close but not close enough.


All I will say is the pres talks a good song, let hear the music and see how he dances.
 
It also doesn't mention we traded picks away - a lot of them - to bring mature players to the club. It's why they no one should complain about it now. They did it deliberately and it didn't work. Wasn't the AFL system, it was their own fault.

My difference to you is that ..I beleieve our picks have never been early enough. The sustain good to very good has meant never having access to the best kids.. and it put us ina dog chasing its tail spin of never being really good enough unless some sort of freak occurrence happened (imagine the kidney thing happening to Martin in a PF last year).. and also never giving most of the kids we draft the time in the seniors to develop , as they could not get past better senior players. If we lose Kruger it will be possibly the third KPD to go elsewhere why we play mature options. We need 4 successful early picks in the draft ..and the best kids we have done is Guthrie and Parfitt.

Yes it will be interesting from here on.
 

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We won't know the answer until we see the club's moves off-season with list management, recruitment, coaching personnel, and of course, the 2022 gameplan.

To not change now , and admit a change of policy is needed , would be up there in the type deaf leadership that saw successes like Gallipoli and the 08 GFC
 
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My difference to you is that ..I beleieve our picks have never been early enough. The sustain good to very good has meant never having access to the best kids.. and it put us ina dog chasing its tail spin of never being really good enough unless some sort of freak occurrence happened (imagine the kidney thing happening to Martin in a PF last year).. and also never giving most of the kids we draft the time in the seniors to develop , as they could not get past better senior players. If we lose Kruger it will be possibly the third KPD to go elsewhere why we play mature options. We need 4 successful early picks in the draft ..and the best kids we have done is Guthrie and Parfitt.

Yes it will be interesting from here on.

Maybe but I think if you have enough picks you can make up for that. Look at Gawn, he's every bit as important as Petracca or Oliver. Taken at pick 34. We did the same from 2007-2011, we had a ton of stars taken in the 20s and beyond (Johnson, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Milburn off the top of my head).
 
Maybe but I think if you have enough picks you can make up for that. Look at Gawn, he's every bit as important as Petracca or Oliver. Taken at pick 34. We did the same from 2007-2011, we had a ton of stars taken in the 20s and beyond (Johnson, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Milburn off the top of my head).

The irony to some degree is that with 2 years of Covid the likelihood is that a kid taken at pick 40 could end up better than a top 10. Talent ID will be far more difficult and error prone. So I’d still be using the picks but not so much worried about where they lie this year at least.
 
Maybe but I think if you have enough picks you can make up for that. Look at Gawn, he's every bit as important as Petracca or Oliver. Taken at pick 34. We did the same from 2007-2011, we had a ton of stars taken in the 20s and beyond (Johnson, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Milburn off the top of my head).

You can get some late pick champs..we have seen enough but you need the early picks or it fails. We had several and topped up with Father Sons that become better than they were drafted..

Its almost unheard of winning a GF with out having at least one , probably more, single figure draft picks that you have drafted and developed. Selwood is our last one and he is well past his best
 
Premierships are the name of the game - and i just look at the past decade as an utter waste
Maybe but I think if you have enough picks you can make up for that. Look at Gawn, he's every bit as important as Petracca or Oliver. Taken at pick 34. We did the same from 2007-2011, we had a ton of stars taken in the 20s and beyond (Johnson, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Milburn off the top of my head).

He has 2 knee reconstructions can you believe it

That 3rd qtr of his - ive never seen anything like it - and he has tidied up his kicking - can put the boot right through it on the run now
 
The irony to some degree is that with 2 years of Covid the likelihood is that a kid taken at pick 40 could end up better than a top 10. Talent ID will be far more difficult and error prone. So I’d still be using the picks but not so much worried about where they lie this year at least.

The codicil I put on the early draft picks ..is that they have to develop into the best players from that draft. Obviously not all do. Look at the difference between McCartin and Petrrica.
Id say all our top picks in our successful era did develop in such a way (bar Tenace). 2001 we had multiples in that top 10.

So yes ... if somehow , someone has been in snooze mode this year , they could develop. We need someone like BSmith, who has somehow done nothing , come in and play every game from day one and be potential champ at 20 (not asking for much) . Id say the odds are if we can get 2 long term players out of 3 R2 picks we will have done very well.
 
The codicil I put on the early draft picks ..is that they have to develop into the best players from that draft. Obviously not all do. Look at the difference between McCartin and Petrrica.
Id say all our top picks in our successful era did develop in such a way (bar Tenace). 2001 we had multiples in that top 10.

So yes ... if somehow , someone has been in snooze mode this year , they could develop. We need someone like BSmith, who has somehow done nothing , come in and play every game from day one and be potential champ at 20 (not asking for much) . Id say the odds are if we can get 2 long term players out of 3 R2 picks we will have done very well.

This years draft really should be seen as the starting point. A couple of players aside (Henry and Holmes), we have a lot of work to do. It will take 5 years from now (if we get it right).
 
This years draft really should be seen as the starting point. A couple of players aside (Henry and Holmes), we have a lot of work to do. It will take 5 years from now (if we get it right).

Agree. 3-5 years just to reset the list then another period aquiring experience and topping up with icing. And if we were serious we may have to be willing to absorb a little pain. Think Mansfield turning into Chapman etc. If we start playing kids and we sift down earlier into the draft, that may be the time to consider not matching FA offers. Its the only way to add multiples now, and I doubt we will be gifted Father Son champs this time
 
Agree. 3-5 years just to reset the list then another period aquiring experience and topping up with icing. And if we were serious we may have to be willing to absorb a little pain. Think Mansfield turning into Chapman etc. If we start playing kids and we sift down earlier into the draft, that may be the time to consider not matching FA offers. Its the only way to add multiples now, and I doubt we will be gifted Father Son champs this time

I wouldn’t be trading at all for 3 drafts. And then after that reassessing where the gaps are. Consider trading then. Maybe not that rigid - if a young gun such as Walsh could be enticed at the right price then you’d have to jump of course. But that’s so unlikely. In essence build a foundation through the draft then plug the gaps. Seems to be the most successful method.
 
I wouldn’t be trading at all for 3 drafts. And then after that reassessing where the gaps are. Consider trading then. Maybe not that rigid - if a young gun such as Walsh could be enticed at the right price then you’d have to jump of course. But that’s so unlikely. In essence build a foundation through the draft then plug the gaps. Seems to be the most successful method.

Trade outs and trade ins are a little different for mine.. I presume you mean trading in with the Walsh ref. Id take what we did as a starting template and then massage it if needed. (depending on a godfather type player, one that you could not refuse). Mostly those do not come while you are building. Id say the timing of adding Ottens as a ref.. so id want us to be well stocked thru draft before we start using R1 picks to bring those icing players... Id like a 3 to 5 drafts to deliver 5 to 8 R1 picks..( foundation) and then for us then to start again looking at filling holes.
 
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