Prediction Where will we finish in 2024

[Giant YoYo]

Six-week September sprint looms in AFL’s closest finals race for 27 years — The Run Home after Round 18

Six-week September sprint looms in AFL’s closest finals race for 27 years — Run Home

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A look at the run home for us this year.

Not playing a finals game at home or in Sydney is really not ideal from a growth perspective. I guess it's better than not playing finals at all.

Hope we manage to land on the ladder with a home or Sydney game. Although I'd still be happy with playing finals, will just cost more to travel interstate.

 

[GWS Goose]

Not playing a finals game at home or in Sydney is really not ideal from a growth perspective. I guess it's better than not playing finals at all.

Hope we manage to land on the ladder with a home or Sydney game. Although I'd still be happy with playing finals, will just cost more to travel interstate.

we'll win the last 7, finish 2nd, win the Qualifying final, get a home pre-lim, as will Sydney, so the Vics will lose their minds and try and find a way for future prelims to be played at the MCG. Its going to be great

 

[dlanod]

find a way for future prelims to be played at the MCG

Please put trigger warnings on comments like that.

 

[Orange crush]

 

[MelbourneGWS]

So pumped and excited after that thrilling win against Melbourne! We are now just half a win away from 2nd spot, and with a 12 win - 7 loss record so far, look almost certain to exceed the 13-10 record we got in Kingsley’s inaugural season last year. With the coveted double chance, who knows what could happen - last year we lost by just 1 point to the eventual premiers in the Preliminary Final.

We have 4 games left, and other than the Brisbane game at Gabba, we will start as favourites against Hawthorn at our Manuka home next week, and Fremantle at Giants Stadium. The last game against the Bulldogs at Mars could be critical in determining whether we get a top 4 spot - hopefully by then the Bulldogs will be out of finals contention.

 

[Battlepants]

That win was massive for us.

1 more win likely gets us an away elimination final.

2 more wins gets us a home elimination final.

3 wins could see us finishing in the top 4, and 4 wins would cement it.

 

[Colonial]

We desperately need the it factors of Cogs and Chook back.
Fingers crossed Briggs is ok. HH too.

 

[PaythePerryman]

We desperately need the it factors of Cogs and Chook back.
Fingers crossed Briggs is ok. HH too.

Agree 100%
I need Kelly back asap. Our clearance game is still brutal. When we win clearance we are brutal. In that third term we won three clearances and kicked 3 straight.
Our forward line is so potent....we just need to give them a chance.

 

[ClockworkOrange]

Would absolutely love to sneak into 4th and reprise 2016 by eating South’s lunch in week 1 of the finals.

That said, as the Poodles run rampant at then SCG as I write maybe South yet cough up an unlosable minor premiership.


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[Battlepants]

Interesting graphic here. With the strongest teams in the top right of the graph.

Aside from Sydney, we will be playing the 3 toughest teams in Brisbane, Fremantle and Bulldofs.

 

[Giant YoYo]

View attachment 2063733

Interesting graphic here. With the strongest teams in the top right of the graph.

Bit of a variance on the chart with our position, on the TV version, we are closer to / touching the green region.

See here:

 

[MelbourneGWS]

So exhilarated and happy after that AMAZING win against Hawthorn. Just don’t know how our team managed to win that, as we looked gone. Kudos and brilliant effort by the coaching and leadership team to have the self belief to win that crucial game.

We are now 13 wins - 7 losses with 3 more games left to play. Unbelievably despite not playing consistently well this season, we are just ONE win (and %) away from the minor premiership! The Swans, Carlton, Essendon etc are all going downhill, whilst us, Brisbane and the Bulldogs are in great winning form.

We have already equaled the number of wins we have got last year in Kingsley’s inaugural season, and with the team’s resilience and self belief who knows what the boys can achieve this year. Last year we lost by 1 point to the eventual Premiers in the Preliminary Final, and with another year together, and a double final chance if we finish in the top 4, we have every reason to be optimistic.

Our final 3 games will determine if we make the top 4 or even get a top 2 spot - our team has never ever finished the home and away season higher than 4th.

 

[Giant Strides]

A very important win. Give us 2 games and percentage over Hawks and Pies, and if Essendon can't beat Freo today, 2.5 games over them.

Win one more game, and presuming we don't get shellacked in the others (to lose percentage), finals is tantalisingly close.

Of course, winning all 3 and keeping our destiny in our own hands would be best!

We probably want Swans to come out of their funk and beat the Pies next week; not sure who we want to win between Hawks and Blues (Probably Carlton as Hawks last 2 games should be gimmes).

 

[GWS Goose]

A very important win. Give us 2 games and percentage over Hawks and Pies, and if Essendon can't beat Freo today, 2.5 games over them.

Win one more game, and presuming we don't get shellacked in the others (to lose percentage), finals is tantalisingly close.

Of course, winning all 3 and keeping our destiny in our own hands would be best!

We probably want Swans to come out of their funk and beat the Pies next week; not sure who we want to win between Hawks and Blues (Probably Carlton as Hawks last 2 games should be gimmes).

I think we have enough wins to make finals now.
Just a matter of where we land

 

[ClockworkOrange]

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[MelbourneGWS]

What an amazing unbelievable win against the Premiership favourites in their own home ground. Brisbane were on a 9 consecutive winning streak, and we beat them despite our dismal first quarter. The win could be season defining for our team, and builds on our self belief after coming from well behind vs Carlton and Hawthorn (and holding off a charging Melbourne in the last quarter a fortnight ago).

We have now won 6 consecutive games ourselves (just 1 behind our all time highest streak of 7 games last year), and at 14 wins are almost certain of a final spot.

We should win 1 of the remaining games, and are favourites to beat Fremantle at Giants Stadium next week. The Bulldogs game at Ballarat is much harder, but given what we have achieved over the past month and a half, I think our team will definitely rise to the challenge.

Our highest ever Home and Away position was 4th (in 2016 and 2017), with 16 wins (in 2016) being the most wins we have had in our history.

I see us getting 15 wins, which should give us a top 4 double chance, and are optimistic of even getting to 16 wins. Given the very even nature of the competition, we should expect to finish top 4, although minor premiership seems unlikely.

 

[GWS Goose]

What an amazing unbelievable win against the Premiership favourites in their own home ground. Brisbane were on a 9 consecutive winning streak, and we beat them despite our dismal first quarter. The win could be season defining for our team, and builds on our self belief after coming from well behind vs Carlton and Hawthorn (and holding off a charging Melbourne in the last quarter a fortnight ago).

We have now won 6 consecutive games ourselves (just 1 behind our all time highest streak of 7 games last year), and at 14 wins are almost certain of a final spot.

We should win 1 of the remaining games, and are favourites to beat Fremantle at Giants Stadium next week. The Bulldogs game at Ballarat is much harder, but given what we have achieved over the past month and a half, I think our team will definitely rise to the challenge.

Our highest ever Home and Away position was 4th (in 2016 and 2017), with 16 wins (in 2016) being the most wins we have had in our history.

I see us getting 15 wins, which should give us a top 4 double chance, and are optimistic of even getting to 16 wins. Given the very even nature of the competition, we should expect to finish top 4, although minor premiership seems unlikely.

I think we are mathematically guaranteed a finals spot.
Very likely have a home final now as well

 

[Colonial]

I think we are mathematically guaranteed a finals spot.
Very likely have a home final now as well

I think we can still be knocked out.
Allot depends on the other games this weekend.

Essendon get done by the Suns tomorrow and we are in.

 

[GWS Goose]

I think we can still be knocked out.
Allot depends on the other games this weekend.

Essendon get done by the Suns tomorrow and we are in.

I think with other teams playing each other that it is impossible for 8 teams to get past us from here.

 

[Colonial]

I think with other teams playing each other that it is impossible for 8 teams to get past us from here.

Really?

 

[Battlepants]

I think with other teams playing each other that it is impossible for 8 teams to get past us from here.

It's not impossible yet, but very unlikely from this position.

I think if Essendon loses a single game it becomes impossible.

 

[Colonial]

View attachment 2074461

It's not impossible yet, but very unlikely from this position.

I think if Essendon loses a single game it becomes impossible.

Bombers have the Swans and Lions. Surely not.

 

[Giant Strides]

I'm hoping that Gold Coast can slay them tonight. Would be a monkey off their back for the Suns, and put the Bombers out of reach below us.

 

[GWS Goose]

Bombers have the Swans and Lions. Surely not.

There also has to be a stack of other games go against us.
I'm calling us safe!

 

[MelbourneGWS]

There also has to be a stack of other games go against us.
I'm calling us safe!

I would normally say don’t jinx us, but our team don’t believe in jinxing and are happy to win anywhere, anytime. There has to be so many unlikely permutations for us to miss out - now that we have (almost certainly) made the finals, I think realistically a top 4 finish, or at the very least a home elimination final is probable? 15 wins should enable this?