Which teams stand between us and back-to-back flags?

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

Nice thread, I've read through the last few pages. Some great posts and even though I'm an outsider, I figured I would contribute.

At this stage, I have Geelong as the best side going around. Pretty even across the field like Collingwood, but the main difference for mine are the match winners. I'm speaking about Ablett, Chapman and Johnson. Gary is of course the best midfielder going around and is impossible to quell, Chapman is a proven big game player and is deadly fully fit, Johnson is the best forward and when fully fit is a creative, goal kicking genius. Scarlett and Taylor are the best FB/CHB combo in the game so it's rare Geelong will be belted around too much.

Collingwood are probably the form side of the comp, but I can't rate them above Geelong yet. Jolly and Davis have been pretty ordinary IMO and players like Reid haven't really been tested. They're very even over the field though and improvement from Wellingham, Beams, Sidebottom and co. has seen them become a genuine threat. Really well drilled team and have always been pretty consistent - they've stepped that up this season. Still - I am not sure they can a) Keep it up and b) Topple a side like Geelong in Finals without having a genuine match winner. Didak and Davis certainly shape as two that could possibly fill that void but they haven't in the past and until they prove otherwise, it's too difficult to guess. Should finish Top 2 either way.

Carlton are a serious dark horse this season. Setanta has been giving them a lot up forward whilst the trio of Betts/Yarran/Garlett have caused problems for basically every side. No sides has 3 quick defenders that can match it with them. At the same time, they're going to be up and down ... and finals is an entirely different kettle of fish. No doubt the Blues are at their peak - probably unlikely they can sustain it, but again - if they make the Finals, they'll trouble sides with their pace and solid midfield. Backline is still a bit of a problem.

As for my team, the Dogs? I think we'll come good. We haven't had much luck with injuries so far this season. Ward, Reid, Picken and Johnson are four key players for us that have missed all or most of the season so far. Hargrave has been strangely out of form whilst Murphy has had knee problems and is now out for 3 weeks. The upside for us is that despite all this and our ordinary form, we're sitting fourth. If we can get our whole side healthy coming into the second half of the year, we should be a threat again.

Much like others, I don't think Riewoldt will come back early enough to save St. Kilda. having said that, they should still win enough games to make the finals and so if Roo is up and running by then, they're still a chance even from 5th-8th. Lot of things need to go right though. A slip up for Riewoldt and they're gone.

As I see it;

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Western Bulldogs

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Freo vs Collingwood in the GF.

You heard it here first kids.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Hmmm, so the Saints are in trouble now...how are Carlton playing so well?

Pies are the real deal, I know we hear that every year but I expect it be true this year.

 

[vinum coupe]

Also, if Thompson does play Lonergan on a good key forward instead of Scarlett, it will cost us games. Don't say you weren't warned. He may have improved, but he's not that good. And he's there as a third tall defender (Harley's role), not the first.

He has definitely turned the corner though mate.

At a pinch he may be able to hold up a key forward occasionally.
My big issue with Lonners is that he looks reactive.

But in the past few weeks he seems to be anticipating and running off his opponent. To keep doing that he can't be on the #1 forward.

 

[Partridge]

He has definitely turned the corner though mate.

At a pinch he may be able to hold up a key forward occasionally.
My big issue with Lonners is that he looks reactive.

But in the past few weeks he seems to be anticipating and running off his opponent. To keep doing that he can't be on the #1 forward.

Yep, no doubt. A vastly improved player. My gripe is Thompson seems to want to prove that "improved player = play him on their best forward as a first option", when it should be as a last resort.

On the whole, with the form he's displayed this year he stays in the side. No question. But don't tear apart what's working perfectly for us - Scarlett at FB, Taylor at CHB, and work out the rest from that.

 

[vinum coupe]

Well we know where he gets that from. The same place he gets his stubborn 'team selection of favourites' from.

They are both Sheedy traits.

Can't be too upset with that.


It still irks me and always will that before the 08 GF it was obvious that the only guy who could tear us apart was Hodge. And he was too stubborn to fix it.

Oh well.

On the other hand, in 07 the only way we were going be torn apart was by Blake getting smashed in the ruck. At least he had the balls to do something about it.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Well we know where he gets that from. The same place he gets his stubborn 'team selection of favourites' from.

They are both Sheedy traits.

Can't be too upset with that.


It still irks me and always will that before the 08 GF it was obvious that the only guy who could tear us apart was Hodge. And he was too stubborn to fix it.

Oh well.

On the other hand, in 07 the only way we were going be torn apart was by Blake getting smashed in the ruck. At least he had the balls to do something about it.

Stokes is one of Bomber's favourites but I dont think he's played a good game in two years. How was Lonergan's dropped mark in the goal square on the weekend?? Could we honestly play that guy in a final? He's improved but by God when he makes a howler its one for the highlight reel.

 

[birdmanptr]

Pies are the real deal, I know we hear that every year but I expect it be true this year.

They will however find a way to self destruct before seasons end.

Cats with few injuries the team to beat and just like 2008 no one else can win the flag but the Cats can lose it

 

[year of the cat]

Yep, no doubt. A vastly improved player. My gripe is Thompson seems to want to prove that "improved player = play him on their best forward as a first option", when it should be as a last resort.

On the whole, with the form he's displayed this year he stays in the side. No question. But don't tear apart what's working perfectly for us - Scarlett at FB, Taylor at CHB, and work out the rest from that.

Assuming that Medhurst comes in for Anthony, can you tell me who Lonergan matches up on against Collingwood? I reckon we will be too top heavy down back with him, Scarlett, Taylor and Milburn (even Mackie as well) against a team with the 2 tall forwards in Cloke and Dawes and a raft of smaller, nippy types in Davis, Didak, Thomas, Medhurst etc.

Sure if Anthony plays Lonergan can take him, but otherwise I reckon he is superfluous to our needs on Friday night.

 

[barmy44]

Stokes is one of Bomber's favourites but I dont think he's played a good game in two years. How was Lonergan's dropped mark in the goal square on the weekend?? Could we honestly play that guy in a final? He's improved but by God when he makes a howler its one for the highlight reel.

i posted a response to something similar in another thread. SJ last year rd 18 v crows, rd 12 v dockers, two dropped chest marks, just as simple as lonergans. lonergan then took some great marks in defence soon after. everybody drops a simple one at times.

the guy is a solid performer so far this year. sometimes i think a lot of cats fans on here believe every player in our 22 has to be the leagues best in that position or theyre letting all of us supporters down.

 

[Partridge]

Assuming that Medhurst comes in for Anthony, can you tell me who Lonergan matches up on against Collingwood? I reckon we will be too top heavy down back with him, Scarlett, Taylor and Milburn (even Mackie as well) against a team with the 2 tall forwards in Cloke and Dawes and a raft of smaller, nippy types in Davis, Didak, Thomas, Medhurst etc.

Sure if Anthony plays Lonergan can take him, but otherwise I reckon he is superfluous to our needs on Friday night.

No argument from me. I reckon our backline has been too tall for a few weeks actually.

 

[SJ]

No argument from me. I reckon our backline has been too tall for a few weeks actually.

Agree entirely.

 

[year of the cat]

Agree entirely.

Would like to see Kelly and Pods in for Duncan and Lonergan. Looks a far more balanced, quicker team than one with Pods coming in for a smaller type such as Hogan (who I imagine would be next in line to be dropped).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Assuming that Medhurst comes in for Anthony, can you tell me who Lonergan matches up on against Collingwood? I reckon we will be too top heavy down back with him, Scarlett, Taylor and Milburn (even Mackie as well) against a team with the 2 tall forwards in Cloke and Dawes and a raft of smaller, nippy types in Davis, Didak, Thomas, Medhurst etc.

Sure if Anthony plays Lonergan can take him, but otherwise I reckon he is superfluous to our needs on Friday night.

I would agree, unless Fraser plays and plays as a forward (in the ruck, Hawk can run with him around the ground). He could be dropped tomorrow, and then he could be a late replacement for <name insert here general soreness>. I just don't want to see him playing on Leon Davis because Bomber insists that we take in 3 talls if we don't need them.

 

[year of the cat]

I would agree, unless Fraser plays and plays as a forward (in the ruck, Hawk can run with him around the ground). He could be dropped tomorrow, and then he could be a late replacement for <name insert here general soreness>. I just don't want to see him playing on Leon Davis because Bomber insists that we take in 3 talls if we don't need them.

Becomes a bit of ducks and drakes at the selection table doesn't it?!! Even up till the final teams are announced an hour or two before the match. I would still though err on leaving Lonergan out as I reckon we have enough coverage with Mackie and Milburn for their talls. As you say, perhaps name him in the 22 and leave him out depending on how Malthouse names his team on Thursday night.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Becomes a bit of ducks and drakes at the selection table doesn't it?!! Even up till the final teams are announced an hour or two before the match. I would still though err on leaving Lonergan out as I reckon we have enough coverage with Mackie and Milburn for their talls. As you say, perhaps name him in the 22 and leave him out depending on how Malthouse names his team on Thursday night.

Yes, especially because you would think that Anthony might be dropped but then he might still play-late changes and all.

 

[Hinkley29]

Yep, no doubt. A vastly improved player. My gripe is Thompson seems to want to prove that "improved player = play him on their best forward as a first option", when it should be as a last resort.

I don't have a gripe with this at all.

I think Thompson is trying to figure out what we have got in Lonergan. Is he good enough to hold down a spot in our backline as a key defender? Is he a hack? Is he a "tweener" in the Harley mold?

I think it is a very sound strategy to find this out at this point in the season. And the only way we are going to find this out is if we give him an extended run in some high-leverage roles. To date, he has coped quite nicely thanks very much, but it is precisely games like Friday that will give us a decent insight into what we have with him.

Put him on Cloke and see what happens. If he gets burned and it costs us the game, well that sucks and all but it won't be terminal, and we will have learnt something. If he succeeds, then all the better.

For what it is worth, I reckon our match-ups on Friday will be:

Lonergan vs Cloke
Taylor vs Dawes
Scarlett vs Anthony

If Lonergan can't handle Cloke, Scarlo takes over and Lonergan takes the 3rd forward.

If Lonergan can handle Cloke, then I would back Scarlo to give Anthony a bath and be a key driver for us. If Anthony is out and Medhurst in, then I reckon I would still play Scarlo on Medhurst and see what happens. If Medhurst runs him up the ground, give the job to Enright or Kelly, and let Scarlo play on Dawes. Then Taylor can either play the 3rd man up role to help out Lonergan, or take the big guys (fraser or Jolly) when they are in the forward line.

Should be a fascinating match.

 

[pinion]

^ that. if lonergan can do the job on the oposition's best forward then it frees up two very good ball-users in Scarlett and Taylor

and particularly with an ageing scarlett, it's nice to know the future of the backline is relatively sound

 

[Vdubs]

The Pies are nothing like we were in 07.

If they were, you could put your glasses down and give em the cup right now.

Rd 8 or 9 2007, we were not as impressive as Pies are now, 5-3 in fact.

The thing here is replying to the thread at rd 9 is way too early, specially this year.