Cause for 2024 optimism: (Unsurprising) correlation between injury number and win rate in season 2023

[BIGANT]

A yr older can our aging stars put out a season like they did 2 seasons ago ending in a premiership season no one tipped going into that season.
A full pre season with a standard start bcoz of finishing outside of the finals will help.. Will it be enough ?
We're dangerous...we just need the same rub of the green like two seasons ago too give the likes our game changers and foot soldiers to make the cat's unders come the business end of the season.

 

[gogeelongcats]

A yr older can our aging stars put out a season like they did 2 seasons ago ending in a premiership season no one tipped going into that season.
A full pre season with a standard start bcoz of finishing outside of the finals will help.. Will it be enough ?
We're dangerous...we just need the same rub of the green like two seasons ago too give the likes our game changers and foot soldiers to make the cat's unders come the business end of the season.

Every team would say they have an upside.
Even Collingwood.

Whilst being optimistic the facts are we are 17 to 1.

 

[CoolCat75]

Every team would say they have an upside.
Even Collingwood.

Whilst being optimistic the facts are we are 17 to 1.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I’m not sure where the rejuvenation is going to come from in 24.
Selwood was probably the main driving force at the start of 22.
He’s such an enormous loss as we saw last year.
We have some good young players and older players but we are missing the on field leadership imo.

 

[Vdubs]

I’m not sure where the rejuvenation is going to come from in 24.
Selwood was probably the main driving force at the start of 22.
He’s such an enormous loss as we saw last year.
We have some good young players and older players but we are missing the on field leadership imo.

Danger, Stewart, Blicavs, Duncan, BOTH Guthries, Atkins can all step up but it’s not innate as it was for Selwood- he was truly a born leader. He showed it in 2007 as a Rising Star and new player, right through to his Grand Finale.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Danger, Stewart, Blicavs, Duncan, BOTH Guthries, Atkins can all step up but it’s not innate as it was for Selwood- he was truly a born leader. He showed it in 2007 as a Rising Star and new player, right through to his Grand Finale.

I’d personally have Hawk captain. I think he’s the most respected in the team and the most inspirational. But those you listed can yes, but I don’t think it’s enough unfortunately.
Hopefully I’m proven wrong.

 

[Cataholic]

Danger, Stewart, Blicavs, Duncan, BOTH Guthries, Atkins can all step up but it’s not innate as it was for Selwood- he was truly a born leader. He showed it in 2007 as a Rising Star and new player, right through to his Grand Finale.

I see Stewart and Atkins as being vaguely nearest 'like for like' with Selwood from that list.

 

[cats_09]

I’d personally have Hawk captain. I think he’s the most respected in the team and the most inspirational. But those you listed can yes, but I don’t think it’s enough unfortunately.
Hopefully I’m proven wrong.

Not sure if Hawkins would want the captaincy - we need to remember he stood down / asked not to be considered ahead of the 2018 season, and that follows from the first of his first child in 2017

There's no doubting his leadership abilities & we see that without him needing the C beside his name - he also seems like the type of guy who's happy to switch off from footy duties once he steps outside the club doors & instead he focuses on being a family man

 

[Vdubs]

I’d personally have Hawk captain. I think he’s the most respected in the team and the most inspirational. But those you listed can yes, but I don’t think it’s enough unfortunately.
Hopefully I’m proven wrong.

In the past, yes, but not now. He's more past it than Danger is, if either of them are.

 

[Mr Meow]

I was going to continue to post this in the trade/FA thread to follow up on my week by week tabulation. But it somewhat spams the thread from its central topics.

There is a bit of debate around to what degree accumulation of injuries (including those game-breaking in-game injuries) derailed Geelong's 2023 season, and to what degree form, hunger, talent, age profile etc did the same.

Also: have we simply exaggerated the injury factor as an easy excuse, a defence of the doe-eyed optimist? I argue NO. Here are the raw injury numbers of our best 22 - players that were selected > 80% of the time when available.

Round	Pre-game	In-game	Total	Win/loss
1​	3​	4​	7​	L
2​	4​	1​	5​	L
3​	5​	1​	6​	L
4​	2​	2​	4​	W
5​	3​	1​	4​	W
6​	4​	0​	4​	W
7​	5​	2​	7​	W
8​	6​	1​	7​	W
9​	8​	0​	8​	L
10​	7​	0​	7​	L
11​	6​	1​	7​	L
12​	7​	0​	7​	W
14​	3​	2​	5​	L
15​	3​	1​	4​	W
16​	3​	0​	3​	D
17​	5​	0​	5​	W
18​	3​	0​	3​	W
19​	2​	0​	2​	L
20​	1​	2​	3​	L
21​	3​	1​	4​	W
22​	4​	2​	6​	L
23​	5​	2​	7​	L
24​	12​	0​	12​	L
Mean	4.5​	1​	5.5​
Median	4​	1​	5​

How many injuries did Geelong have for win/draw results as opposed to losses?

	Win/draw	Loss
		7​
	3​	5​
	4​	6​
	4​	8​
	4​	7​
	7​	7​
	7​	5​
	7​	2​
	4​	3​
	5​	6​
	3​	7​
	4​	12​
Mean	4.7​	6.3​
Median	4​	6.5​

It seems like 5 or more injuries (pre-game + in-game) was something of a tipping point. We had the misfortune of enduring this circumstance 13 out of 23 times - I'd contend well above the league average in 2023, or the GFC average of the past decade.

So what was the win rate in games Geelong had 5 or more injuries, compared to games with 4 or less?

	5 or more	4 or less
Win rate	28.6%​	77.8%​

If I get even more bored I'll run a 2022 comparison. But, it would seem with a good run of injuries in 2024 we would be more than competitive barring an overall decline in form of the squad (possible, and a different debate).

Annoyingly my table formatting won't copy over. Sidenote: anyone know why? I can't bold or italicise anything either, that whole formatting bar is greyed out.

Anyway:

The magical tipping point number last season was 6 injuries to best 23 players (pre-game + in-game combined). 6 or more and we really struggled to get wins.

An easier start this season, although round 2 posed a significant challenge that I suspect we may have failed in 2023. Not having numerous collision injuries in first quarters and early sub activations has been helpful. For transparency purposes I have not included Tuohy as best 23 even though he may be. Duncan replacing him this week was an upgrade more than it hurting us to not have Tuohy. If Duncan or O'Connor miss, Tuohy becomes vital again in my book. People will have their own opinions on that.

Round 1: 3 pre-game, 0 in-game, 3 total.
Round 2: 6 pre-game, 1 in-game, 7 total.
Round 3: 4 pre-game, 0 in-game, 4 total.


Mean 4.3 (pre-game) 0.3 (in-game) 4.7 (total)
Median 4 (pre-game) 0 (in-game) 4 (total)

 

[Mr Meow]

Update: With the way we are managing the squad, some judgement calls have to be made on what I consider best 22 injuries. Stanley and Tuohy being managed here and there (without obvious injury occurring previous week) with like-for-like replacements that give us as much, I'm not including. Kolo and Hawkins the week before I did include, even if it fell under "management".

Rohan I have included until Dempsey's break out in the 1s was cemented. He could still be best 22 but is playing VFL, i.e in previous years he was a bigger miss. So this week I've got him as "available".

2024 so far (updated after round 7, including the 1 in-game injury):

Round	Pre-game	In-game	Total	Win/loss
1​	3​	0​	3​	W
2​	6​	1​	7​	W
3​	4​	0​	4​	W
4​	3​	0​	3​	W
5​	5​	0​	5​	W
6​	2​	1​	3​	W
7​	1​	1​	1​
Mean	3.4​	0.4​	3.8​
Median	3​	0​	3​

Our in-game injuries have slowed up big time, with only one obvious one occurring before the last quarter of a game. Our unfit squad was being punished any time an in-game injury (sometimes multiple) occurred last season.

You could also almost knock 1 off each of the pre-game injury numbers, simply because our depth players have lifted and can just as easily be argued as best 23 in a few cases. So on average it's been more like 2-3 important players missing each week, compared to 4-5 in 2023 (with 1 more occurring in-game).

 

[Mr Meow]

As reference points, from a couple of seasons we went deep into finals:

Geelong 2022

Injuries

Pre-game

In-game

Total

Mean	3.1​	0.7​	3.8​
Median	3.0​	1.0​	4.0​

Geelong 2019

Round

Pre-game

In-game

Total

Mean	3.0​	0.8​	3.8​
Median	3​	1​	4​

The grand-finalists of 2023 had about 3 per week as well.

Remember, the tipping point I identified as having a critical effect on win/loss % was 6 injuries (pre-game/in-game combined) or more. It's only happened once so far in 2024, against Adelaide, with Duncan and Atkins late withdrawal.

May the better luck continue!

 

[Play it Sam]

Just found this thread, delighted to see someone apply the hard work of scientific method to the 2023 question. Not only that, I seem to remember you were just about the only other poster who drove the injury argument constantly for our ill fortune last year, as a reminder to less level heads. Definite acceptance of your theory here! Congratulations, look forward to checking in during this far more successful period ( and keeping injury at bay).

 

[Mr Meow]

Just found this thread, delighted to see someone apply the hard work of scientific method to the 2023 question. Not only that, I seem to remember you were just about the only other poster who drove the injury argument constantly for our ill fortune last year, as a reminder to less level heads. Definite acceptance of your theory here! Congratulations, look forward to checking in during this far more successful period ( and keeping injury at bay).

Thanks! Optimism should still always be based around facts. And bad luck doesn't tend to last too long.

I think an impressive pre-season across the board has held us in good stead for our improved injury run to start 2024. As is being able to manage players here and there, with a deep squad to utilise.

Here's the round 8 update. Although I want the in-game injury column to remain a clean sheet after the match this time!

Round	Pre-game	In-game	Total	Win/loss
1​	3​	0​	3​	W
2​	6​	1​	7​	W
3​	4​	0​	4​	W
4​	3​	0​	3​	W
5​	5​	0​	5​	W
6​	2​	1​	3​	W
7​	1​	1​	2​	W
8​	1​	0​	1​	-
Mean	3.1​	0.4​	3.5​
Median	3​	0​	3​

 

[Play it Sam]

Rohan back in will be interesting. Holding hope the previously injured don't make your list this year. It would also be interesting the correlation between injury and age, if we have to look at personnel re- injuring themselves.

Clark and Parf would be the outliers there, I'd imagine. But that's a mission for another day, let'd hope we don't have to discuss it!

 

[Mr Meow]

Round	Pre-game	In-game	Total	Win/loss
1​	3​	0​	3​	W
2​	6​	1​	7​	W
3​	4​	0​	4​	W
4​	3​	0​	3​	W
5​	5​	0​	5​	W
6​	2​	1​	3​	W
7​	1​	1​	2​	W
8​	1​	1​	2​	L
9​	4​	0​	4​	L
10​	5​	0​	5​	L
11​	3​	0​	3​	L
12​	4​	1​	5​	W
13​	4​	0​	4​	L
15​	3​	1​	4​	L
16​	3​	0​	3​	W
17​	2​	0​	2​	W
18​	2​	0​	2​	W
Mean	3.2​	0.4​	3.6​
Median	3​	0​	3​

 

[Mr Meow]

So we are still tracking about 2 injuries per game better off than 2023. We have struggled when the injuries have been to midfielders, or when they have been rusty upon returning to the side.

 

[Play it Sam]

So we are still tracking about 2 injuries per game better off than 2023. We have struggled when the injuries have been to midfielders, or when they have been rusty upon returning to the side.

Interesting that the loss, no, actual shellacking v Gold Coast Round 10 was 5 and approaching your tipping point of 6.
And here we were thinking it was just the Darwin humidity!