Opinion Who breaks their Premiership drought first?

[M Malice]

In the 25 years this century 11 clubs have won Premierships >

Hawks 4
Cats 4
Lions 4
Tigers 3
Swans 2
Eagles 2
Magpies 2
Bombers 1
Port 1
Bulldogs 1
Demons 1

There are 7 clubs without a flag this century and years since their last Premiership >

Saints 58
Dockers 30*
Blues 29
Crows 26
Kangaroos 25
Suns 14*
Giants 13*

* = Never won a Premiership.
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Who of the 7 clubs will be the next to break their drought and win a Premiership?

 

[TheUnicorn]

Tier 1
Giants - Dockers - Blues

Tier 2
Suns

Tier 3
Kangaroos - Crows

Tier 4
Saints

I would say the Giants are the most likely to win, followed by the Dockers. The Suns have plenty of talent, so I believe they should be next, even though they are in a lower tier than Carlton. Carlton's window is currently open, but I don't think they will win one with their current list.

 

[Toump Ass]

Carlton have PEAKED.

All downhill now sorry baggers, enjoy your rebuild!

 

[M Malice]

Tier 1
Giants - Dockers - Blues

Tier 2
Suns

Tier 3
Kangaroos - Crows

Tier 4
Saints

Pretty much agree with that, maybe Crows up to tier 2, I'm tipping the Dockers to do it soon if they get the likes of Shai Bolton and Liam Baker in this off season.

 

[Colonial]

Hopefully the Giants

 

[Freomaniac]

Hopefully the Giants

I don't mind.

But the best way your team will get their 1st flag will be vs a non Vic's side. Similar path like Port in 2004, swans in 2005, eagles in 2006 and Brisbane in 2024.

It can be done. I didn't mind the 2024 grand final

 

[McIvor]

Freo with their list profile with GWS a close second and Crows as a smoky. I like what Adelaide is building and wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a rapid rise.

 

[rye]

carlton is the team that is the furthest away from a premiership

bloated cap committed to a C+ list that has little upside to it. proven that it cant perform in september.

will float around 6-12 for the next couple of years and then crash to a full rebuild.

 

[Fadge]

carlton is the team that is the furthest away from a premiership

bloated cap committed to a C+ list that has little upside to it. proven that it cant perform in september.

will float around 6-12 for the next couple of years and then crash to a full rebuild.

Good to see that many people are now seeing what I've been saying for a long time.

I shake my head when I look at the ladder predictor thread and see posters still predicting them for top 4...

 

[Fadge]

Tier 1 - Can contend immediately and maintain it for next 2 to 4 years - Giants, Fremantle.
Tier 2 - Need some work but are building nicely. Could happen quickly, but could still take another couple of years before they're contending - Adelaide, Suns.
Tier 3 - Going in right direction but still need a few more years into their young guns and have a few pieces of the jigsaw to find - North.
Tier 4 - I honestly don't know what they're doing, and I don't think they do either - Carlton, Saints.

 

[BF Tiger]

I'm in agreeance with some here that it is the Giants and then Fremantle.

Giants have the list now I believe so need to strike.

Fremantle are so close. They were staring top 4 in the face before a late season implosion this year. Makes me wonder why they are quibbling over the price of Bolton, a classy player who can be a match-winner and might have been the difference in those four late season losses by 1, 11, 9 and 20 points (worth noting that Freo led in the last quarter in two of those games and in the other two were within a goal in the last quarter).

The Suns are still rising but not there yet, and may not get there this cycle.

This Carlton group just don't appear to have it in them.

The others are too far back.