Who will be better in 2024? Hawthorn or Essendon?

[Dewyyyyy]

When his deficiency was an area that was of most concern, you can’t please everyone.

He looks to have taken the move well and put his head in places not previously acquainted with. Kudos to Sitch for getting this into Massimo’s game


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His area of deficiency is now a strength. Shows that Sam is a damn good coach who gets the most out of his players, and maybe Brad isn’t.

Defensive running and as a half back defensively being accountable, and even toughness were ??

He is now a super hard working two way winger who is strong defensively and offensively, still using his outside class and skills but his toughness has been outstanding.

He’d easily get into Essendon now, and would be a lock on any sides wing.

 

[Vindicater]

His area of deficiency is now a strength. Shows that Sam is a damn good coach who gets the most out of his players, and maybe Brad isn’t.

Defensive running and as a half back defensively being accountable, and even toughness were ??

He is now a super hard working two way winger who is strong defensively and offensively, still using his outside class and skills but his toughness has been outstanding.

He’d easily get into Essendon now, and would be a lock on any sides wing.

Just a note on his defensive issues. It was never about his tank and running capacity. It was that he too easily lost his man in transition.

He does not have to do that at Hawthorn from what I have seen. He plays as a defensive winger who let's his opponent wing push up the ground and then he acts as a plus one on the defensive side. It is the perfect way to hide his defensive issue which is great coaching by Sam.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Just a note on his defensive issues. It was never about his tank and running capacity. It was that he too easily lost his man in transition.

He does not have to do that at Hawthorn from what I have seen. He plays as a defensive winger who let's his opponent wing push up the ground and then he acts as a plus one on the defensive side. It is the perfect way to hide his defensive issue which is great coaching by Sam.

I get that, but it’s a strength now. His ability to locate now is brilliant and often stops the dangerous short 45s and can work to the last line to rebound and work in waves. It’s textbook winger.

I would agree but that’s the wing role, as a HB he is able to locate well, so it would probably come down to a structural understanding rather than an actual deficiency, locating your man and transition defense is mainly structure.

 

[nickrebellious]

One of the things that Hawthorn have done well, especially during their premiership era is focus on specific needs and recruiting players and developing them to fill a role. One of the phrases they used was, "Master your craft" and I love that idea, because it doesn't imply being the best at everything. It means taking the thing that is your specialty, and mastering it, and being the best in the AFL at that thing. "Master your craft." It's a thing of beauty.

Now take Essendon. With the Bombers, you often hear things like, "we want to improve across the board"...."we just want to be more professional at all aspects of the game" Sounds good right? It's not really. Whilst there is nothing wrong inherently with trying to improve everything, you end up being jack of all trades, and master of none. All the major statistical indicators of success, the Bombers end up ranking 7-12, which is where we always finish.

Let's look at a specific example. There is a stat from Champion data measuring "post clearance." In this particular stat, the number one team of all time as Essendon of 2000 - Perhaps not surprising. Other exceptional teams from the last 25 years occupy other spots in the top-10 like Collingwood of 2011, Geelong 2008 etc etc. You know who ranks second of all time in that stat? Hawthorn of THIS year. Post Clearance Hawthorn of 2024 are the best team in the history of the game with the exception of Essendon 2000 at that stat

And this shows you how the Hawks approach the game. Instead of trying to improve across the board and be okay at everything but exceptional at nothing, they have decided to put MORE focus on specific stats that are relevant to premiership success. Master your craft. Their philosophy seems to be that if we can't be the best at everything at least be exceptional at something. At least that gives you an identity - it gives you a particular strength. It doesn't matter if they rank lower in other statistical categories because once they have mastered the ones that are important and become exceptional at those, they can then work at the other stuff.

It's one of the reasons they recruited Massimo D'Ambrosio. He's not that great a player but one thing he can do is kick. So they play to his strengths. One of the key indicators of premiership success is scores from defensive 50. All premiership teams in the last 10 years rank first or second in that stat. So, they recruit players who can transition the ball from back to forward who can kick. Who do Essendon play across half back? Andrew McGrath, who is a better player than Massimo D'Ambrosio, but McGrath tends to spray the ball when kicking from half back. Nick Martin, also a much better player than Massimo, but across half back he tends to turn the ball over. Essendon is so focused on trying to improve across the board that they don't excel at specific needs. Hawthorn focus on specific needs and master those things. Martin for example ALWAYS kicks goals when he is moved forward. So play him there. Maybe Zac Merrett who is the best kick in the team could be used across half back? Sounds like a wild suggestion, but play to his strengths. Hawthorn play to their strengths and are always exceptional at "some" part of the game.

Meanwhile we will attempt to "improve across the board" and fail every step of the way.

I thought you were going to say 2014 Hawks then. That's insane were up there with those teams. I tried looking up the post clearance rating from champion data, but couldn't find anything. Can you explain it please?

 

[Dan26]

I thought you were going to say 2014 Hawks then. That's insane were up there with those teams. I tried looking up the post clearance rating from champion data, but couldn't find anything. Can you explain it please?

I heard Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data on SEN explaining that the hawks of 2024 were the second best “post clearance” team of all time behind Essendon 2000. He was also explaining how there were lots of areas that the Hawks rank poorly in. I think you’d need to subscribe (pay) to get that sort of data from them.

What struck me was that this seemed to be deliberate by Hawthorn. A conscious effort to not be “better across the board” but to be exceptional in some very specific areas that are keys to premiership success. This is the opposite to the Bombers, where we are jack of all trades but masters of none.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I heard Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data on SEN explaining that the hawks of 2024 were the second best “post clearance” team of all time behind Essendon 2000. He was also explaining how there were lots of areas that the Hawks rank poorly in. I think you’d need to subscribe (pay) to get that sort of data from them.

What struck me was that this seemed to be deliberate by Hawthorn. A conscious effort to not be “better across the board” but to be exceptional in some very specific areas that are keys to premiership success. This is the opposite to the Bombers, where we are jack of all trades but masters of none.

Before their form turn around, Hoyne said they were 6th all time for ground ball gets in D50 which seemed a weird stat, but the teams ahead of them were Essendon 2000, a few of Geelongs dynasty teams and a few of Hawks dynasty teams. Weird but obviously significant.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I thought you were going to say 2014 Hawks then. That's insane were up there with those teams. I tried looking up the post clearance rating from champion data, but couldn't find anything. Can you explain it please?

It has been showcased by Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data on a few occasions, not aware of the recent finding, but Hawthorn have been top 10 all time at a bunch of points through this year, including the poor start. The only others are all flag winners or contenders who won within a few year gaps.

It is important to note this is not just about hunger and intensity, a good structure to consistently place yourself in the best position to A. Defend and B. Counterattack or C. Win the ball first. I wrote something about it which Hawthorn do, which is a diamond shape around contest, ground balls and stoppages to have all angles covered.

From that a cyclone movement is there used to cover their teammates player and a setup behind the ball in the shape of a triangle which makes it easy to A. Intercept into the triangle, and B. Spread and get counter strike game style going.

All of this shape helps defensively, spread, counterattack and winning the ball first. Spreading is important as it means link up handball chains happen to open the game into more dangerous positions, easier to then use the ball going forward, creating better opportunities.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I thought you were going to say 2014 Hawks then. That's insane were up there with those teams. I tried looking up the post clearance rating from champion data, but couldn't find anything. Can you explain it please?

I heard Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data on SEN explaining that the hawks of 2024 were the second best “post clearance” team of all time behind Essendon 2000. He was also explaining how there were lots of areas that the Hawks rank poorly in. I think you’d need to subscribe (pay) to get that sort of data from them.

What struck me was that this seemed to be deliberate by Hawthorn. A conscious effort to not be “better across the board” but to be exceptional in some very specific areas that are keys to premiership success. This is the opposite to the Bombers, where we are jack of all trades but masters of none.

Before their form turn around, Hoyne said they were 6th all time for ground ball gets in D50 which seemed a weird stat, but the teams ahead of them were Essendon 2000, a few of Geelongs dynasty teams and a few of Hawks dynasty teams. Weird but obviously significant.

As I said, unsure about recent updates but it’d be a similar list. I wouldn’t be surprised if this has changed to have Hawthorn higher, didn’t listen to Hoyne the other day when he was on talking.

 

[Dan26]

The Hawks have always had a pretty good culture when it comes to excelling at a specific thing. Or having a point of difference. Remember when they recruited (deliberately) a string of left footed players? No one else was doing this, or even thinking about it. I think it has been proven, statistically that lefties are more accurate kicks. Something to do with how one side of the brain works.

Essendon's big weakness last year was defending opposition transition from one end to the other. I think we were either dead last or in the bottom two. We should have focussed disproportionally at excelling at that, even if it meant failing at some other areas. I know we've worked on it a bit, but have we "really" worked on it? Or is jut part of the overall mantra of "just being better at everything" (which doesn't work)

I don't think we will improve as a club until we excel at one aspect of the game. Something we can call a genuine strength and a point of difference. Then, once you are the best at something you can tick that off and work on something else. Something specific.

 

[Yoda_]

Good to see posters finally getting on board the champion data train.


Have only banged on about it for a decade but glad we’re all catching up


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[Dewyyyyy]

Good to see posters finally getting on board the champion data train.


Have only banged on about it for a decade but glad we’re all catching up


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

People who hate on champion data are just mad it doesn’t fit their narrative. It’s a fact based statistic in all cases. Context to the stats helps which is why Hoyne has been awesome, but it is purely data and it’s hard to argue against.

 

[Yoda_]

People who hate on champion data are just mad it doesn’t fit their narrative. It’s a fact based statistic in all cases. Context to the stats helps which is why Hoyne has been awesome, but it is purely data and it’s hard to argue against.

as a readily available stat line, CD takes into account both positive and negative contributions to a match. This is why I think it is one of the best metrics the public can use to gauge a players worth to a team/list/match

 

[Dewyyyyy]

as a readily available stat line, CD makes into account both positive and negative contributions to a match. This is why I think it is one of the best metrics the public can use to gauge a players worth to a team/list/match

Just sucks that a lot of valuable statistics are unable to be found.

 

[mike ross]

Even though form fluctuates, I have the Hawks playing the better football over the last month or more. So Hawks ahead for me.

 

[HairyO]

It is over an 8 week period….

If they are only 3.5 wins behind us at seasons end the fair enough, but it’s likely to be closer to 10 by then.

And its now 0.5 to Hawthorn.

Oh Dear.

I love early on in the fred when people were lining up to mock those voting Hawthorn...

 

[threesixpio]

Hawthorn remind me of Essendon about 15 years back.
The fallen powerhouse. Supporters with an absolute belief that it is only a matter of time before they rocket back up the ladder. Proclaiming mediocre/good players as the next coming. (Newcombe, Nash, Lewis, Day etc). Favourite son returns as coach full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

Methinks you have eaten on the insane root. That takes the reason prisoner

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn ta

 

[SSSSSS]

Surely Essendon must be a good side to give away players like Massimo on the cheap.

 

[threesixpio]

Newcombe ahead of Parish.

Hawks fans say the cutest things.

If I said straight swap now what would be your answer ?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If I said straight swap now what would be your answer ?

I’d say no before he can answer

 

[hk89]

That must be a fair old reality check for you?

How you handling the reality check of seeing Hawthorn above you on the ladder?

You've got Freo, Lions and Swans from here, so might be hard to get back above us, although Carlton and GWS will not be easy games for us either, but we do balance that with games against the bottom two. Can see us missing out on finals after a loss to the bottom side the final round, but if we get wins against GWS and Carlton, we could do that and still make it. Carlton look vulnerable right now, GWS not so much, but potentially a huge 8 point game for us.

Geelong game clearly shows we are still prone to stinkers, so finals stil a roll of the dice at the moment. A pity it seems unlikely we'll be able to knock Essendon out of the first week of finals, even if we do make it.

 

[boncer34]

If I said straight swap now what would be your answer ?

Still no.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Still no.

I love when my full time mid who is a death by a thousand cuts type and has 13 touches at 70%

He’s also 27.

 

[boncer34]

I love when my full time mid who is a death by a thousand cuts type and has 13 touches at 70%

He’s also 27.

Yes he was poor first up from being off from his injury.

Can't all rack up the huge 10 touches when fully fit against the Suns.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yes he was poor first up from being off from his injury.

Can't all rack up the huge 10 touches when fully fit against the Suns.

He wasn’t alone to be fair

No one is taking Parish in the last two seasons if they’ve watched footy. Newcombe AA squad last year and a lot more damaging. Been better this year too even tho his numbers have been lower.

Will continue to open that gap as he reaches his peak, and Parish approaches 30.