Banter Who will be Better in 2025, Collingwood or Carlton? Part 4

[Fadge]

How much of your predictions are based on the past, or is that all you base them on?

How much forecasting do you do in your predictions and what, if anything, does that forecasting involve?
Natural improvement of individuals and playing groups, a cultural "shift" of clubs, in the way they do things differently to the past, is there a change in leadership, within the club's 4 walls. How much effect, if any does that have? Onset of new/fresh talent?

Just curious really because most of your posts about how we will do in the next year and beyond seem to involve a great deal about the past.

It's pretty simple with Carlton.

1. They've fallen well short of contending for premierships to date;
2. There are other clubs from whom I see better youth, and therefore more expected growth from that youth;
3. Their list objectively went backwards over the trade period.
4. I don't think the impact of injuries were as great as many Carlton supporters have made them out to be, given the continuity they had from their top 6 players (and Carlton rely on their top 6 more than any other team in the competition).

As a result, I see them in worse shape than they were in 2024.

 

[Bale Dup]

It's pretty simple with Carlton.

1. They've fallen well short of contending for premierships to date;
2. There are other clubs from whom I see better youth, and therefore more expected growth from that youth;
3. Their list objectively went backwards over the trade period.
4. I don't think the impact of injuries were as great as many Carlton supporters have made then out to be, given the continuity they had from their top 6 players (and Carlton rely on their top 6 more than any other team in the competition).

As a result, I see them in worse shape than they were in 2024.

Yep. Pretty "simple" really

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Fadge]

Yep. Pretty "simple" really

Glad you agree.

 

[Bale Dup]

Glad you agree.

That your methods are simple, yes I do.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Chronz]

Carlton closing the gap in the poll.

The Cavalry has arrived!

Understandable from their piss easy fixture.

 

[Fadge]

Let's have a look at the premiership credentials of the clubs I think can be contenders:

Brisbane - reigning premiers; return of Coleman, Doedee, Gardiner, McCarthy from knees; injection of LAshcroft and improvement from young guns WAshcroft, Loehmann, Fletcher, etc.; have been regular contenders for past handful of seasons;

GWS - Have contended for the premiership the past two seasons and fallen agonisingly short in their past 3 finals against the 2024 Premiers and Runners-Up and the 2023 Premiers; Well balanced and deep squad with plenty of experience across the park; Fell short of qualifying for a 2024 Prelim Final against Port (and therefore likely Grand Final) courtesy of one of the best finals ever played by an individual (Heeney).

Sydney - Reigning minor Premiers and runners-up in 2 of the past 3 seasons; How is a midfield of Heeney, Warner, Gulden, Rowbottom and Mills going to be any worse in 2025 than they were in 2024?; Young key forwards only going to get better.

Collingwood - 2023 Premiers after falling agonisingly short in the 2022 Prelim; have bolstered their list with Houston and Perryman; finished 2024 as well as any team as evidenced by their late games against the eventual Grand Finalists; Nick Daicos.

Geelong - 2022 Premiers and fell agonisingly short of the 2024 Premiers in a classic Preliminary Final; Hawkins a big loss on paper, but was already out of their side whilst they were contending in the 2024 finals; further improvement from young guns Holmes, Dempsey, Humphrey's, De Koning.

Hawthorn - know what it takes to contend in the modern era; played amazing and sustainable football from round 5 of 2024; bolstered by Barass and Battle (and return of Lewis); significant upside from young guns Watson, Dear, Day, etc.

Whilst one or two of these sides may have a down year in 2025 (as is the trend in modern football), there's no way Carlton will be contending ahead of most of them.

 

[Bale Dup]

Let's have a look at the premiership credentials of the clubs I think can be contenders:

Brisbane - reigning premiers; return of Coleman, Doedee, Gardiner, McCarthy from knees; injection of LAshcroft and improvement from young guns WAshcroft, Loehmann, Fletcher, etc.; have been regular contenders for past handful of seasons;

GWS - Have contended for the premiership the past two seasons and fallen agonisingly short in their past 3 finals against the 2024 Premiers and Runners-Up and the 2023 Premiers; Well balanced and deep squad with plenty of experience across the park; Fell short of qualifying for a 2024 Prelim Final against Port (and therefore likely Grand Final) courtesy of one of the best individual finals ever played by an individual (Heeney).

Sydney - Reigning minor Premiers and runners-up in 2 of the past 3 seasons; How is a midfield of Heeney, Warner, Gulden, Rowbottom and Mills going to be any worse in 2025 than they were in 2024?; Young key forwards only going to get better.

Collingwood - 2023 Premiers after falling agonisingly short in the 2022 Prelim; have bolstered their list with Houston and Perryman; Nick Daicos.

Geelong - 2022 Premiers and fell agonisingly short of the 2024 Premiers in a classic Preliminary Final; Hawkins a big loss on paper, but was already out of their side whilst they were contending in the 2024 finals; further improvement from young guns Holmes, Dempsey, Humphrey's, De Koning.

Hawthorn - know what it takes to contend in the modern era; played amazing and sustainable football from round 5 of 2024; bolstered by Barass and Battle (and return of Lewis); significant upside from young guns Watson, Dear, Day, etc.

Whilst one or two of these sides may have a down year in 2025 (as is the trend in modern football), there's no way Carlton will be contending ahead of most of them.

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Fadge]

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

We had a down year, just like 2021.

Plenty to like from the way we finished 2024 after a slow start. Will update.

 

[Worm4]

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

 

[Bale Dup]

I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

No. If it's Jagga, he's got 300 games and leadership written all over him, but won't have any impact at all in 25.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Fadge]

I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

No. If it's Jagga, he's got 300 games and leadership written all over him, but won't have any impact at all in 25.

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

 

[Bale Dup]

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

I'm not disputing that Brisbane will be contenders next year.

My query is that apparently, according to you, we have no other real talent to be included in our team next year, but other teams do.

That's where the overall issue of your assessments sit with me, is that your assessment of our list is prejudiced and somewhat blinded by your hatred of us imo.

At the end of the day, your assessments of us are wrong imo, and there's no point in me or anyone who supports the blues, listing who we believe might make us better, as you simply do not rate our list, past our "top 6" (or is it 12) players.

We will see soon enough, who is right.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Worm4]

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

I was focussing on how the injection of ashcroft into the side will mean something. Other players or not