Banter Who will be Better in 2025, Collingwood or Carlton? Part 4

[doppleganger]

My only agenda when it comes to fixturing is that it's highly compromised for all teams. Not once have I judged a season because of a fixture a team got.

Simply put, there are things in the fixture that help Carlton and things that hurt them just like Collingwood and any other team. So I don't see it as a significant factor over a season.

So you are aware of how compromised the Fixture is, and how it aint equal.

But it is a bit too hard for you to establish who had an easy or hard fixture...so you decide to ignore it.

 

[carlton_99]

So you are aware of how compromised the Fixture is, and how it aint equal.

But it is a bit too hard for you to establish who had an easy or hard fixture...so you decide to ignore it.

Teams will have a slightly easier or harder fixture based on opposition each year - in fact that has to happen for the purposes of equalisation. However, my point is there are so many other factors other than opposition that should be considered when evaluating a fixture that are often missed. For instance, more games at the G' is a massive plus, home-ground advantage is another, byes now a bigger factor with Opening Round being incorporated, extra home/away games because of Gather Round, clubs playing home games interstate (i.e., North in 25'), travelling a heap in a short period of time etc. When you take into account all of these factors I think overall the fixture becomes less significant in my eyes in terms of its impact on a season's results.

And then even when you look at opposition people often don't take into account when you play a team which can matter massively. If you played St Kilda for instance in 24' in the first half of the year it was an "easier" game than in the 2nd half. Similar with Brisbane. The opposite was true for a team like Carlton or Essendon.

 

[doppleganger]

Teams will have a slightly easier or harder fixture based on opposition each year - in fact that has to happen for the purposes of equalisation.

??
It only has to happen because the AFL wants to play more than 22 games and is not interested in changing the league structure.

However, my point is there are so many other factors other than opposition that should be considered when evaluating a fixture that are often missed.

Missed by who?

For instance, more games at the G' is a massive plus,

It can be a massive plus come finals (as that is where finals are played) but what help does playing 10 games at the G have compared to 10 at Marvel or 10 at Cat Park during H&A?

home-ground advantage is another

Of course, Port got an extra home game, Essendon were shafted in 2024.

Why would you ignore it as not being a factor?

byes now a bigger factor with Opening Round being incorporated

What is the advantage?
Brisbane playing in OR but then having a bye in Rd2...is this an advantage over Geelong who didnt play in OR but played in Rd 2?

extra home/away games because of Gather Round, clubs playing home games interstate (i.e., North in 25'),

Again these are pretty obvious things...getting an extra home game is an obvious advantage

A team giving up a home game, obviously are at a disadvantage.

Why pretend that Port didnt get an extra home game?

When you take into account all of these factors I think overall the fixture becomes less significant in my eyes in terms of its impact on a season's results.

Less significant?

If teams get extra home games compared to others, and they didnt get double up games against any strong opposition...pretty obvious that their soft fixture will have an impact on H&A ladder.

But keep your head in the sand and pretend that the fixtures are equal and dont impact the ladder.

 

[carlton_99]

It only has to happen because the AFL wants to play more than 22 games and is not interested in changing the league structure.

That's not something worth debating - you play everyone twice if you want a perfectly fair system but doesn't look a chance of happening.

Missed by who?

The people that only bring up games against bottom 4 and ignore all other things I have mentioned that influence the fixture.

It can be a massive plus come finals (as that is where finals are played) but what help does playing 10 games at the G have compared to 10 at Marvel or 10 at Cat Park during H&A?

Because the H+A is all about putting yourself in the best position to succeed in finals. Interstate teams for instance would benefit greatly with more games at the G' because that is where they need to win when it comes to finals.

Of course, Port got an extra home game, Essendon were shafted in 2024.

Why would you ignore it as not being a factor?

I never ignored it - it is why I am listing it as a factor. But home ground advantage isn't just referring to getting more home games. MCG tenants for instance get more home ground advantage than Marvel tenants when it comes to playing other Vic teams (i.e., Pies will play home games against Dogs/Saints/North at the G' whereas Blues play home games against these teams at a neutral venue).

What is the advantage?
Brisbane playing in OR but then having a bye in Rd2...is this an advantage over Geelong who didnt play in OR but played in Rd 2?

Some teams had a bye in Round 6 and then again in just after mid-season because of Opening Round. I would say that is an advantage over a team that had a bye in OR and then mid-season.

Again these are pretty obvious things...getting an extra home game is an obvious advantage

A team giving up a home game, obviously are at a disadvantage.

Why pretend that Port didnt get an extra home game?

I never pretended they didn't - these are literally all factors I've listed that influence fixture difficulty.

Less significant?

If teams get extra home games compared to others, and they didnt get double up games against any strong opposition...pretty obvious that their soft fixture will have an impact on H&A ladder.

But keep your head in the sand and pretend that the fixtures are equal and dont impact the ladder.

Again never said fixtures are equal. There are just a heap of factors that compromise the fixture and opposition itself is not the only important factor - it is also when you play said opposition which can change everything. That I would argue is one of the most important factors when it comes to fixture difficulty.

 

[doppleganger]

.Again never said fixtures are equal. There are just a heap of factors that compromise the fixture and opposition itself is not the only important factor - it is also when you play said opposition which can change everything. That I would argue is one of the most important factors when it comes to fixture difficulty.

Yeah like getting the previous years GF teams in OR off compromised pre-season prior to a bye is obviously easier than getting em in July when they are firing up.

The most obvious thing is strength of opponent - who you play twice can massively shift your ladder position.

A mediocre team that gets a few soft match-ups will see their ladder position rise due to the extra win (s) and % compared to a similar level team who cops harder double ups.

It really is pretty standard and accepted stuff nowadays with the compromised fixture. Watch once the fixture is actually released, and the focus on projected fixture difficulty.

All you have to do is apply the methodology once the season was complete to assess who actually had the easiest fixture.

In 2024, it was Port...their double ups were laughable and they had an extra home advantage game. Their soft fixture was why they finished 2nd on the H&A ladder.

 

[Worm4]

Well, the rumour doing the rounds is that Collingwood will be playing Geelong down at sleepy hollow in 2025.
Quite happy to offer directions to the supporters of the away team if it happens.

 

[Cyclops]

Framing periods, its a fun game. Overall Pies have won more games than Carlton, finished top more. etc etc. We are better at footy.

Carlton has us 5-1 in grand Finals. Leaving aside the fact they did that through rorting and unsportsmanlike conduct, that makes Carlton better in Grand Finals.

Collingwood has Carlton 2-0 in 2024. That makes us better in 2024. Or do Carlton people not think head to head matters?

Carlton benefited from Sir Kenneth Luke's mind boggling rort with the country zones. A shabby rule change meant to limit Collingwood and give the povo clubs a chance was twisted into 7 flags for the undeserving blues. Carlton is better at cheating.

Well, the rumour doing the rounds is that Collingwood will be playing Geelong down at sleepy hollow in 2025.
Quite happy to offer directions to the supporters of the away team if it happens.

Surely Geelong is too smart to send themselves broke? Its their funeral, we play where we are sent. We go the Sydney a lot, you know, because they want the game to succeed up there so they send the best club.

Meanwhile, how about you ask for one game vs Collingwood. Sure one of your small game specialists will leave because you can't afford his hair care anymore but you might sneak another 4 points, and maybe be even lose another prelim. Go for bronze Blues!

 

[South of the Yarra]

Well, the rumour doing the rounds is that Collingwood will be playing Geelong down at sleepy hollow in 2025.
Quite happy to offer directions to the supporters of the away team if it happens.

Fantastic, an easy win. We haven't lost there in 25 years.

 

[Worm4]

Fantastic, an easy win. We haven't lost there in 25 years.

Haven't won there in 25 years either. Reckon the cat supporters should do a "mystery alaska" and all put up their newspapers to pretend read in silence when the pies enter the arena. Would be a classic message to the league

 

[Worm4]

Surely Geelong is too smart to send themselves broke? Its their funeral, we play where we are sent.

The sheer arrogance of what you wrote is mind boggling.
I'm sure the cats as a club will be just fine

 

[JustaBattler]

Framing periods, its a fun game.

Carlton has us 5-1 in grand Finals.

I simplified your post by removing all the self serving nuffie stuff - that has nothing to do with what really matters - against Carlton when it matters - in the big dance - your mob are our bunnies, always have been always will be.

To make you feel betta - both Clubs are on the same flag count atm - this means you have a much betta track record against other Clubs in a GF so I understand why your mob get itchy and scratchy about Carlton being a regular finals Club - it means your mob have only a 1 in six chance of beating Carlton in a GF ( see how stooopid Fudgeymatics is )

As for 'asking' Collingwood for a game- I dont think Carlton needs to ask anything from anyone - buit ollingwood can continue being the AFL's lapdog and pet - it what your dirty birds are good at.

 

[augie]

I've been around for both sides competing for a GF 13 times each

One 8 and 5, other 3 and 10

Glorious

Just got my abacus out again and have calculated that half your life has been an abject failure. And it is the half that is closest in memory for you. Heartbreaking.

 

[Fadge]

Just got my abacus out again and have calculated that half your life has been an abject failure. And it is the half that is closest in memory for you. Heartbreaking.

With no signs of abating (if you assess it logically and rationally, without delusion).

 

[Arr0w]

Just got my abacus out again and have calculated that half your life has been an abject failure. And it is the half that is closest in memory for you. Heartbreaking.

I've also just realised I've seen more Pie GF losses than our 8 flags in that period

I guess you have one over us in that regard

 

[Arr0w]

With no signs of abating (if you assess it logically and rationally, without delusion).

So gut feel or statistically? Neither supports your mexican waffle

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Bloosers

 

[Fadge]

Bloosers

Ubershizens

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Ubershizens

Ubershitzen Bloosers

 

[Fadge]

So gut feel or statistically? Neither supports your mexican waffle

Even though I posted 'if you assess it logically and rationally, without delusion', feel free to explain how 'Carlton continuing as an abject failure' isn't supported:
1. By a gut feel, and
2. Statistically.

 

[augie]

I've also just realised I've seen more Pie GF losses than our 8 flags in that period

I guess you have one over us in that regard

That should keep you going as you live out your days. Maybe we'll lose a few more so that you can continue to have something to celebrate in your twilight years.

 

[JustaBattler]

Even though I posted 'if you assess it logically and rationally, without delusion', feel free to explain how 'Carlton continuing as an abject failure' isn't supported:
1. By a gut feel, and
2. Statistically.

oh dear I'm noting a salty ad hominem flavour emerging in ollingwood postages ..must be reality causing itchy and scratchiness - get your flock of fools under control fudgey

A 1 in 6 chance of winning a GF against Carlton - oh boy hows them 'staasteesteex' ( is that how you pronounce fudgeymath in Mehico?)

1 in 6 PROBABILITY according to fudgeymathstats oh boy woweee !!

PS that is 16 divided by 1 according to fudgey probability calcs which is 16.67% but lets round it up to 17% probability that Collingwood can ever beat Carlton in a GF...

woweee!!

 

[Fadge]

oh dear I'm noting a salty ad hominem flavour emerging in ollingwood postages ..must be reality causing itchy and scratchiness - get your flock of fools under control fudgey

A 1 in 6 chance of winning a GF against Carlton - oh boy hows them 'staasteesteex' ( is that how you pronounce fudgeymath in Mehico?)

1 in 6 PROBABILITY according to fudgeymathstats oh boy woweee !!

PS that is 16 divided by 1 according to fudgey probability calcs which is 16.67% but lets round it up to 17% probability that Collingwood can ever beat Carlton in a GF...

I'm happy with those odds, given there is a 0% probability of the Ubershizen Bloosers making a Grand Final in the first place...

 

[Cyclops]

I simplified your post by removing all the self serving nuffie stuff - that has nothing to do with what really matters - against Carlton when it matters - in the big dance - your mob are our bunnies, always have been always will be.

To make you feel betta - both Clubs are on the same flag count atm - this means you have a much betta track record against other Clubs in a GF so I understand why your mob get itchy and scratchy about Carlton being a regular finals Club - it means your mob have only a 1 in six chance of beating Carlton in a GF ( see how stooopid Fudgeymatics is )

As for 'asking' Collingwood for a game- I dont think Carlton needs to ask anything from anyone - buit ollingwood can continue being the AFL's lapdog and pet - it what your dirty birds are good at.

Gone! Got him! Pies better in 2024.

 

[Cyclops]

The sheer arrogance of what you wrote is mind boggling.
I'm sure the cats as a club will be just fine

We were brought into the VFL to make it financially viable, and we have carried the minnows ever since. We were so dominant they had to bring in a host of rule changes just to give the minnows a chance.

You're welcome.

 

[Worm4]

We were brought into the VFL to make it financially viable, and we have carried the minnows ever since. We were so dominant they had to bring in a host of rule changes just to give the minnows a chance.

You're welcome.

The fact that you actually believe what you said in that statement is quite brilliant