Opinion Who wins the Premiership? (Updated poll - Updated for Prelims))

[Duckenthusiast]

I don't think we match up at all well against Brisbane. Would need a team like WC to knock them out in a prelim.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

I don't think we match up at all well against Brisbane. Would need a team like WC to knock them out in a prelim.

Cant say I'd be mad if we won a flag with a goal after the siren against your mob again

 

[Freomaniac]

2 years 2 flags. pretty much the only decent scalp away

95% of their wins @ MCG

But they have an Ace in their sleeve: Dustin Martins fat fathers face. It worked well vs the crows stance lol

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Not so sure about that, read a comment from a swans supporter today on BF somewhere that was something like, "I'll be going for GWS because the NSW teams have to stick together".
Terrible attitude IMO!

We do things differently up north. We all despise the Vics far more than our neighbours.

 

[queensberryrules]

Gee wizz the Port pressure was awesome in the 2nd have. Reminded me of rfc back in 2017 when they just crushed teams. If port can maintain it, huge chance.

Like me a bit of big charlie too, playing angry, great stuff.

 

[theyellowsash]

Except last week.

I don't believe you

 

[theyellowsash]

True you don’t ..

tigers rely on their home ground more than any team in the competition

What can I say. When we have a crucial must win home game to make top 4, whether that be against top 4 teams fighting for the double chance or bottom 10 teams with nothing to play for, we take full advantage.

 

[Tiger Battler]

I'd agree if we weren't coming off a 4 day break and them 6.

Honestly in my eyes there is no excuse for either team going into this game. IF it were at the GABBA, I'd say we'd have the advantage.

You are one of a very few salty Brisbane fans. Stop complaining. It isn’t your home so the game could be played anywhere and it does not give us an advantage. Brisbane get a massive advantage this year so you have no reason to complain.
Also, to your 4 day complaint, at least your players got to play in 45 minutes from their home last game. We go into the Port game with 4 days break after this one and we have to travel to another state. Teams are going to face adversity through this season. Just is what it is. A win under these circumstances could really lift a team.

 

[Toffee Lion]

You are one of a very few salty Brisbane fans. Stop complaining. It isn’t your home so the game could be played anywhere and it does not give us an advantage. Brisbane get a massive advantage this year so you have no reason to complain.
Also, to your 4 day complaint, at least your players got to play in 45 minutes from their home last game. We go into the Port game with 4 days break after this one and we have to travel to another state. Teams are going to face adversity through this season. Just is what it is. A win under these circumstances could really lift a team.

Salty? Where am I salty. I am literally saying in my post that there is no excuse? Not even going to bother reading the rest because you're obviously delusional.

 

[Duckenthusiast]

That will be hard when Port finish 9th.

We've beaten 3 of the top 8 sides and are on top of the ladder. Alot of the top 10 play off over the next 2 weeks so even if we drop some games, not everyone behind us can catch up. Of our run home, we play 2 top 8 sides (5th-8th std), 9th, 10th and 3 bottom 4 sides. We were on top of the ladder when we didn't get a home game for 6 weeks. We won games getting on a plane at 5am. We have won our first 2 games in the packed schedule. We have beaten 'good' sides as we were challenged to do. Where we are in the overall premiership favoritism is up for debate, but anyone who is genuinely saying we have no chance is some combination of stupid, a ****wit, doesn't know anything about football, or a troll. It is frustrating to hear this nonsense from successful sides. It is just laughable hearing it from the least successful team in the competition. If you think we haven't earned the right to puff our chests out yet, you sure as hell haven't.

 

[Duckenthusiast]

Cant say I'd be mad if we won a flag with a goal after the siren against your mob again

If it came from another bullshit free kick, the recipient and the umpire who paid it would have to go into witness protection.

 

[Dazzler9]

Tough guy

 

[Duckenthusiast]

I am not sure I understand the overrating of Richmond. Okay, they have a couple of flags and that gets you at least in the conversation, but anyone putting them up as a presumptive favorite is crazy. Their only good win for the year is against the bulldogs. They are still yet to play Port, Brisbane, WC, Geelong, and Essendon (who I consider a top 8 side sitting in 9th but having played 2 less games than 8th). Even a good side only wins a couple of those games which could put them out of the 8 with a few games to go. Every other team in the 8 they have played, they have lost to. Their next best effort was a draw against 10th. Their wins on current position are against 17th, 15th, 14th, 12th, a draw against 10th, and a win against 8th (who are probably really 9th with Essendon having 2 games in hand).

Tonight is huge for them. Get a win, and that signals they are the real deal. Lose, and that sets them back massively. WC and St Kilda 9.5 times out 10 win their games and Richmond are all of a sudden 1.5 games out of the top 4. Geelong should overtake them. GWS v Ess game becomes important as a GWS win puts them in front of Richmond, but a Essendon win makes it all the more likely they make the top 8 and push out 1 of GWS, WB or Richmond. Lose tonight and Richmond lose touch with the top 4 and run the risk of missing the 8 with Geelong, WC, Essendon and Port to come.

PS - yes I know that now I have posted this Richmond will probably beat Brisbane and then us by 10 goals.

 

[HBF]

Its between West Coast, Brisbane and probably Richmond.
Not sure Port can maintain this all the way through the season if they're constantly having to fly in and fly out for games.

 

[juss]

On Port, I have them as one of the chances, but I'm not as convinced of them come finals as I am some of the other teams. It will depend if they get an AO final, or who their match up is.

 

[Toffee Lion]

I am not sure I understand the overrating of Richmond. Okay, they have a couple of flags and that gets you at least in the conversation, but anyone putting them up as a presumptive favorite is crazy. Their only good win for the year is against the bulldogs. They are still yet to play Port, Brisbane, WC, Geelong, and Essendon (who I consider a top 8 side sitting in 9th but having played 2 less games than 8th). Even a good side only wins a couple of those games which could put them out of the 8 with a few games to go. Every other team in the 8 they have played, they have lost to. Their next best effort was a draw against 10th. Their wins on current position are against 17th, 15th, 14th, 12th, a draw against 10th, and a win against 8th (who are probably really 9th with Essendon having 2 games in hand).

Tonight is huge for them. Get a win, and that signals they are the real deal. Lose, and that sets them back massively. WC and St Kilda 9.5 times out 10 win their games and Richmond are all of a sudden 1.5 games out of the top 4. Geelong should overtake them. GWS v Ess game becomes important as a GWS win puts them in front of Richmond, but a Essendon win makes it all the more likely they make the top 8 and push out 1 of GWS, WB or Richmond. Lose tonight and Richmond lose touch with the top 4 and run the risk of missing the 8 with Geelong, WC, Essendon and Port to come.

PS - yes I know that now I have posted this Richmond will probably beat Brisbane and then us by 10 goals.

It’s a given now that we are going to get pumped, cheers

 

[Duckenthusiast]

On Port, I have them as one of the chances, but I'm not as convinced of them come finals as I am some of the other teams. It will depend if they get an AO final, or who their match up is.

That's pretty fair. Not sure I agree on the venue, we seem to like Metricon and we have won in Perth a bit (and also seem to be playing poorly at AO). Despite the fact that we have one of the best backlines (and have done so for several years) we have always had the problem of containing the largest forwards in the game due to Jonas/Clurey's height. For you to beat us, I think it would have to be through Tom Lynch or Dusty putting on a clinic. We actually match up pretty well against WC which is why we have either had close losses or smashed them in recent years. Doesn't stop Kennedy kicking 6 on us though. To me there are 3-4 teams that you could toss a coin on us against. Brisbane is the one that is a massive worry. It was a huge mistake to not put Westhoff behind the ball last time we played them and pretty much everything that could have went wrong did go wrong. However, we would need a lot to go right to beat them. We probably need Neale to have a poor game, flip a coin on 2 out of their 3 6'5 kpfs having a poor game and then also not allow the other 1 or charlie cameron to have a day out. If any of those things don't happen, Dixon probably has to kick 6 on arguably the best FB/ CHB in the comp. On top of that we have to have a good day (i.e not sub 50% accuracy) in front of goals. That is a lot to go right. I don't see Brisbane as unbeatable, but I don't think it will be us who beat them. I think WC are the best bet to knock Brisbane off.

 

[Duckenthusiast]

It’s a given now that we are going to get pumped, cheers

hehe

 

[The Yak]

Not sure on Port as StKilda touched them up nicely in Adelaide.

 

[Duckenthusiast]

Not sure on Port as StKilda touched them up nicely in Adelaide.

You do realise that every team has been touched up at least once this year?

 

[Papa G]

On Port, I have them as one of the chances, but I'm not as convinced of them come finals as I am some of the other teams. It will depend if they get an AO final, or who their match up is.

Port's record at AO is quite poor. I have more faith in Port away than I do at home. People say that Port crowds are loud and whinge at the umpiring, but we just don't get the favours the Crows and West Coast get at home.

To illustrate, here's the hometown free kick differential between Port and the Crows

 

[The Yak]

You do realise that every team has been touched up at least once this year?

The way they did it though. Port threw everything at them and StKilda just put them away.

 

[MrWoollie]

Port's record at AO is quite poor. I have more faith in Port away than I do at home. People say that Port crowds are loud and whinge at the umpiring, but we just don't get the favours the Crows and West Coast get at home.

To illustrate, here's the hometown free kick differential between Port and the Crows

View attachment 927317

Free kick count and differential is meaningless. Anyone who believes that the free kick count (in a fair competition) should even itself out over a season/decade is delusional.

It depends how you play the game. Take WC and Freo over the past decade. WC play a precise kicking, uncontested mark style that makes the other team come at them. Freo historically have played the Ross Lyon model (then RoLy adapted). Scrappy in and under, in your face, rugby maul style. One of these styles will usually end up on the positive side of the free kick count, the other on the negative. It's nothing to do with favouritism, everything with how you play the game.

The Crows have similarly been a lot more bruise free in style than Port. Pretty but only effective if you have the skills to pull it off. And who cares if you win the free count but lose every game? I'd rather be in the Port minus camp than the Crows plus camp right now.

Richmond and Sydney have won premierships being more physical than any other team in their year. They correctly lost the free differential as well.
So all is not lost for Port.

 

[Papa G]

Free kick count and differential is meaningless. Anyone who believes that the free kick count (in a fair competition) should even itself out over a season/decade is delusional.

It depends how you play the game. Take WC and Freo over the past decade. WC play a precise kicking, uncontested mark style that makes the other team come at them. Freo historically have played the Ross Lyon model (then RoLy adapted). Scrappy in and under, in your face, rugby maul style. One of these styles will usually end up on the positive side of the free kick count, the other on the negative. It's nothing to do with favouritism, everything with how you play the game.

The Crows have similarly been a lot more bruise free in style than Port. Pretty but only effective if you have the skills to pull it off. And who cares if you win the free count but lose every game? I'd rather be in the Port minus camp than the Crows plus camp right now.

Richmond and Sydney have won premierships being more physical than any other team in their year. They correctly lost the free differential as well.
So all is not lost for Port.

Whilst I agree its not the be all and end all, some clubs get a far better run at home than we do. Playing at AO is not a huge plus for us and favourable umpiring (also known as hometown umpiring) just doesn't seem to go our way like it does for others.

The width of AO seems to be a problem for us also. It has been a major problem since 2015.

Just making the point that Port do not get the best out of home ground advantage compared to many others, particularly West Coast, Geelong and Richmond.

 

[Wallaby]

I don't know why everyone is writing off Geelong so easily. Ok - their finals record is not great, but their H&A form is. A side with Selwood, Danger, Hawkins for a start is pretty solid. Ablett is nowhere near the player he was, but he's still a pretty good small forward. I saw the odds last night on the news, and they've blown out to about $17. That seems very generous to me. As we all know, on their day, they can beat anyone. They are going to make the finals, and once there, they have a shot. They're going to get old - we know that - but it's not this year - yet.

My ratings (favourites to roughies) are:

West Coast - because the finals may be played in Perth, and they are definitely finishing Top 4.
Richmond - because they've been there, done that. Yes, they won't have the MCG. See how the injuries play out.
Brisbane - need to show they can handle finals. They are really only just ahead of the next level.
GWS, Collingwood, Geelong - all equal. It comes down to on the day, injuries etc.
Port - maybe I'm underrating them. They're having a purple patch, but not quite convinced. But if finals are played in Adelaide...................
Saints, Dogs, Essendon - need a lot of things to go right. Best of those teams. - Essendon. But very unlikely. Best chance to get a 'Bulldogs 2016' wave - Saints. Also very unlikely.