Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Elmer_Hauser]

Agreed, we're good for at least one more year

Last 2 flags have been won by a team of old bags, maybe it's the new trend

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Definitely foolish for anyone to write off the Pies, but with Ginnivan gone and McStay sadly out for the season, it's essential for Collingwood for the likes of Ash Johnson, De Goey and Jamie Elliott to stay healthy, esp come finals time. But that could also apply to most flag contenders including us and Brisbane etc

Sometimes it feels like flags are won these days partly due to a war of attrition/which teams are healthiest during September.

 

[Bestbird]

Falling of a cliff can come quickly for older list that have been successful for a while so haven't had access to early draft picks and then suffer a bad injury run during a season.

Geelong suffered a bit this year for this reason although the injuries weren't significant.

 

[HairyO]

5th oldest I saw yesterday. Collingwood the oldest I think, are they falling?

They are already good and need to maintain. Richmond are not good and somehow need to get a lot better.

 

[Jeff76]

Cats have had their fall already but will play finals again next year, I think Richmond will fall lower in 24 and Melbourne seem to be a basket case of a club at the moment.


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[fnerd]

In order to fall off a cliff, you need to have been a contender in the previous season, surely? That disqualifies the likes of the Dogs, Swans, and Cats. Dees I think will be a top 4 contender for a while yet.

Which leads me to who I believe the obvious answer is ...

TRIGGER WARNING, it's Collingwood.

First of all, they fit the criteria of being "on" the cliff. Secondly, I think their list fits the bill. And before you main board Pies losers boo and hiss at me, I'm not trying to bait you. Consider my assessment of your list and debate it on its merits if you so desire.

• Pendlebury carried them in the Grand Final.
• Howe is a general down back.
• Crisp gives high level speed, run, ball use, and versatility.
• Sidebottom is perennially underrated and provides a lot of leadership.
• Elliott does Elliott things.
• Hoskin-Elliott is a solid citizen who provides experience and versatility across a number of positions.
• Mihocek straightens them up and kicks goals consistently.
• McStay, their most used forward target, has just done an ACL and will be 30 by his next finals campaign.
• Cox gives them honest ruck minutes and marking around the ground.
• Mitchell gives them the inside grunt work they were crying out for.

That's 10 very important players from their premiership winning side that are all getting toward the end of their careers. I'm not even counting Adams as a loss, the cloud that hangs over Murphy's future, or the guys on the list who will be 29 next year.

While they have a few players that look like being stars in their positions for the next 5+ years, I simply don't see enough quality youth coming through the ranks to replace the above group. Happy for people to debate me on this as I definitely don't watch as much Pies VFL as other posters on here might. I genuinely believe that this core of senior players that will age out soon is so high in quality that it will be too difficult to replace in a short amount of time.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going into my doomsday bunker before Fadge reads this post.

Well if that happens ,they can rest safe in the knowledge they ll have a very good selection to ta take with their first rounder…..

 

[PhatBoy]

A decade in the bottom 4

Regular, humiliating 12 goal drubbings at home in the newly renovated but only half-full Kardinia Park

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To go with the 3 humiliating 12+ goal drubbings we have suffered in our last 418 games.

The fact that you’re salivating so much over this - and that it more than likely won’t eventuate - is hilarious

 

[Freomaniac]

Agreed, we're good for at least one more year

Last 2 flags have been won by a team of old bags, maybe it's the new trend

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you might be right. Hell, Collingwood could 3 peat and win flags in 2024 and 2025 then the wheels fall off in 2026 and McRae builds the list up again. Spend 3 or 4 years in a row of no finals then makes another grand final.

Like that Buckley period where collingwood didnt play finals in 2014-7 but made a grand final in 2018.

Strange that Collingwood didnt play finals from 1995-2001, yet made grand finals in 2002-03.

 

[Freomaniac]

Falling of a cliff can come quickly for older list that have been successful for a while so haven't had access to early draft picks and then suffer a bad injury run during a season.

Geelong suffered a bit this year for this reason although the injuries weren't significant.

you dont have to remind me.

I enjoyed the dockers finals run of 2012-15. Dockers already had an ageing squad in 2014-5. Then 2016 hit and freo went 0-10.

 

[Freomaniac]

Who could forget the Sando "spike"...

Im sure you couldnt forget it.

Crows were bottom 4 in 2011. Gets an easy draw of Port, GWS and Suns twice.

Had Beaten freo twice in the regular season and a 3rd time in that 2012 semi final. All 3 times the dockers always had got injuries before the crows games.

I still remember the loss at Footy park in the regualr season. Fyfe got an injury pre game for rolling his ankle in the hotel.

Sandersons Arrogance at the Best and fairest night wanted me to see him fail. I am glad he did.

 

[Melvin]

Has the OP not been following the preseason news?

All these clubs are smashing it on the track. Fitter, faster, stronger and more motivated than ever before.

The veterans are feeling as good as ever, the players young players have another preseason under their belts and players who were disappointing in 2023 have made big improvements. 2024 looks set to be the best season of all time.

 

[Freomaniac]

Is four years a long time? Seems like your average rebuild time to me. The fact that the Pies immediately returned to the grand final suggests they weren’t gone for long.

Again.... you claimed the Magpies were never ever down for long....

I already showed you that Collingwood didnt play one final between 1995-2001.

 

[mwhop]

Swans will make a prelim, minimum, in 2024
Genuine flag threat

 

[Grrr]

They are already good and need to maintain. Richmond are not good and somehow need to get a lot better.

Fair point. Richmond were also second on the injury list last season so that never helps. We have a fair amount of young talent that is fairly unexposed which neither insiders or outsiders know much about. This year will be the making or breaking of a lot of those.

I thought we were poorly coached last season, Dimma said so himself. New coach, new ideas usually improves sides. We will see.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Honestly throw a blanket over Geelong, Richmond, Melbourne & the Bulldogs. Two of those have absolutely atrocious lists and age-profiles, years of short-sighted greed & mismanagement will undoubtedly result in --

The other two are akin to a fish rotting from the head, the stink of decay & rapid onset of a severe case of the rabble virus clear to see. Those two Clubs can swiftly expect --

Adding a special category, the 'Continued Plummet'. Congrats Hawthorn, inaugural members! You needn't look past the fact they re-traded Breust into their team this off-season to realise the Glenferrie Goose is well & truly cooked --

And, oh boi is it going to be sweet!

If only we could be run like St Kilda

 

[Gavin Excell]

Swans will make a prelim, minimum, in 2024
Genuine flag threat

They have a very impressive young group coming through. Just reckon they are one key player short down back

 

[Gavin Excell]

Has the OP not been following the preseason news?

All these clubs are smashing it on the track. Fitter, faster, stronger and more motivated than ever before.

The veterans are feeling as good as ever, the players young players have another preseason under their belts and players who were disappointing in 2023 have made big improvements. 2024 looks set to be the best season of all time.

With all teams making the top 4

 

[Xtreme]

Collingwood will emulate Geelongs 2023. In 2024 Collingwood will be defending premiers who fail to make finals

 

[seasonedsainter]

If only we could be run like St Kilda

Running is exactly what your coach and most your list gonna be doing when the feral horde from sleepy hollow realise the "football factory" is empty, all gone-ski nothing inside looted by greedy administrators and power hungry football bosses with as much vision as mole rat.

 

[STPer18]

Honestly throw a blanket over Geelong, Richmond, Melbourne & the Bulldogs. Two of those have absolutely atrocious lists and age-profiles, years of short-sighted greed & mismanagement will undoubtedly result in --

Geelong and Richmond's years of short-sighted greed & mismanagement has led them to a combined seven flags since 2007. I assume it's some kind of self-flagellating satire at your club's awe-inspiring lack of success, but if not the mighty Saints could benefit from a similar level of short-sighted and greedy mismanagement every once in a while too.

 

[adammania9]

Again.... you claimed the Magpies were never ever down for long....

I already showed you that Collingwood didnt play one final between 1995-2001.

Only had to go back a quarter of a century

 

[Danw0w]

you dont have to remind me.

I enjoyed the dockers finals run of 2012-15. Dockers already had an ageing squad in 2014-5. Then 2016 hit and freo went 0-10.

Did they fall off the cliff? Or did opposition coaches figure out Ross Lyon (plus Fyfe's injuries)?

 

[bradfisher14]

Only had to go back a quarter of a century

In fairness you did say never, which is a bit longer than a quarter of a century.

 

[Muddiemoose]

All reasonable points. The bit I am fascinated by is the core you named. In that group I see quality for sure, but I'm seeing a lot of flankers/smalls. I feel like you can't include Murphy in this discussion given the uncertainty over his long term future.

Who are the key position forwards/defenders and centre bounce mids that are coming through to complement that core? I like the look of Charlie Dean, but he's had a shocking run with injury. Ed Allan was highly rated in the draft, but I'm not sure what his best position will be at AFL level. Is Fin Macrae actually going to get some games soon?

I take your point about Mitchell, H-E and Cox being replaceable, but I do think you're underestimating how good they are in their specific roles and the intangibles they provide as senior heads. That's the sort of stuff that takes years to develop and there will be some drop off as they transition out.

It’s also a question of depth
The thing that separates the top tier is the ability to cover injury’s with depth that has some afl experience and mature body
They are the plug and play cover who will play the roles assigned to them, keep selectors honest with genuine competition for spots in the 22 and generally have a good handle on the gameplan of the side

As the older guard age out those depth guys start to become best 22 leaving you wanting when injury’s come

 

[Muddiemoose]

Cats have had their fall already but will play finals again next year, I think Richmond will fall lower in 24 and Melbourne seem to be a basket case of a club at the moment.


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Hard to say for the tigs our season is very much injury dependent
If lynch stays on the park we probably perform marginally better but if Lynch goes down we probably slip without some of that leadership in Cotch and Riewoldt along with learning a new gameplan

 

[Gavin Excell]

Geelong and Richmond's years of short-sighted greed & mismanagement has led them to a combined seven flags since 2007. I assume it's some kind of self-flagellating satire at your club's awe-inspiring lack of success, but if not the mighty Saints could benefit from a similar level of short-sighted and greedy mismanagement every once in a while too.

More parody than satire
Whatever its amusing that a Saints fan with their tragic history having a crack at how successful clubs are managed