Analysis Why are we s**t?

[ant555]

We always play it safe and the McDonagh selection is another example. Why not take the risk on a kid who could fill a position of need (maybe, hm, inside mid?!).

From last years draft who were overlooked I liked the look of; Joel Trudgeon (inside mid), Josh Browne (midfielder), Josh Cripps (ruck/fwd), Kade Ditmar (midfielder) that would have helped the list.

No defender ? and none picked up by anyone else. Not really a convincing argument. More of a did not pick the bloke I liked argument. I could have gone with Trudgeon as a rookie pick mainly as he is a leader.
I would say we have not always played it safe. If we played it safe we pick Luke Parker. Ross over Mosquito. Would not have picked Ham. anyone rather than Houlihan. etc
We have more of a history of left field maybe picks than taking the obvious safe option.
How many bloody flankers have we taken to turn into midfielders ? That is not the safe option.

 

[TheGrizz]

Seriously ?
What no club ever takes a risk at pick 50 ? What is the difference between taking him and hoping he can be a decent player from 2023 for 4 years or hoping you find a kid ? there where only 15 players taken after him. Only two have played. One was Constable who was a mature age pick and you do not want mature age. The other is a Freo academy pick.
Its is a total over reaction. We picked a player who we hope can be a defender for us. Yes he is 25. Yes he will need a season of VFL. Why is it a 25 year old with his background a bad pick if he takes a year in the VFL ? why is it any worse than Lord who will take 2 years in the VFL minimum ? History says you never get a draft 100% correct. In fact it says if you get 60 to 70 percent of your picks right over a period of time you will be in the top 4 window.
Have to say McDonagh has had some issues so far but he has not been a total dud. he does actually find the footy and he has shown he can actually defend. He is a far more advanced selection than a Houlihan or Morgan type and the reason he is that is not just the fact he is 25 but the fact we wanted to take a defender who had the scope to defend and had decent skills.

I was on the record at the time that I wanted Ned Long at that pick (195cm midfielder who is showing a bit for the Hawks VFL side).

I get your point and agree to an extent. But we are in a phase of a list build where we need to be taking shots at younge relates with upside, and McDonagh hasn't looked close to the level yet.

 

[windyhill]

Because we have developed a losing culture.

Failure breeds failure, it seeps into the ears and walls.
It works the same as onfield momentum, but on a bigger scale.

Also we left a building that had success in its sanctum, to a new place that has none. That stuff matters.

Totally agree. That drug thing as well. They can get rid of everyone involved, the stench remains.

 

[ant555]

I was on the record at the time that I wanted Ned Long at that pick (195cm midfielder who is showing a bit for the Hawks VFL side).

I get your point and agree to an extent. But we are in a phase of a list build where we need to be taking shots at younge relates with upside, and McDonagh hasn't looked close to the level yet.

Once again it is age. Who says being 25 gives you no upside ? No one is really saying it is about picking one player over another. It has all been he is 25 he should deliver now. He has no upside. He may not have jumped of the page so far he has been solid as a defender and had found a bit of the footy playing deeper back. The disappointment for me has been he has been a bit patchy with his disposal . He has a cannon but the sights have been a bit off in periods.
I have watched him live a 3 times this year including the first half yesterday. I have seen a lot worse defenders playing for us. He is a bit of long shot for sure. We do not have much depth in the smaller defender department.

 

[FlyingV]

Have to remember we are playing 4-5 20 year old kids every week.
Martin, Cox, Perk, Durham, Hobbs. They are effectively replacing Stringer, Langford, Snelling and Merrett.

That’s a massive impact on our ability to run out games, and compete against the bigger stronger teams.

 

[CBombers17]

Once again it is age. Who says being 25 gives you no upside ? No one is really saying it is about picking one player over another. It has all been he is 25 he should deliver now. He has no upside. He may not have jumped of the page so far he has been solid as a defender and had found a bit of the footy playing deeper back. The disappointment for me has been he has been a bit patchy with his disposal . He has a cannon but the sights have been a bit off in periods.
I have watched him live a 3 times this year including the first half yesterday. I have seen a lot worse defenders playing for us. He is a bit of long shot for sure. We do not have much depth in the smaller defender department.

I know it's a different argument but personally I would have been happy to pick up another mid and keep the option open to send McGrath back there. There's no shame in it and Essendon has a strong history in defensive leaders.

He has been pretty ordinary in the middle so far and it's not going to go on forever.

 

[ant555]

I know it's a different argument but personally I would have been happy to pick up another mid and keep the option open to send McGrath back there. There's no shame in it and Essendon has a strong history in defensive leaders.

He has been pretty ordinary in the middle so far and it's not going to go on forever.

That is a fair enough comment. It is based more on selecting a position that does need covering rather than the outrage of picking a 25 year old player who needs some level of development. If we do get outraged at getting a couple of picks wrong in every draft then we are going to be outraged a lot. Melbourne had a lot of ordinary picks in the Mahoney / Taylor period when they where building what they have now and it still had to be finished of with some good FA / trades.

 

[Yoda_]

No defender ? and none picked up by anyone else. Not really a convincing argument. More of a did not pick the bloke I liked argument. I could have gone with Trudgeon as a rookie pick mainly as he is a leader.
I would say we have not always played it safe. If we played it safe we pick Luke Parker. Ross over Mosquito. Would not have picked Ham. anyone rather than Houlihan. etc
We have more of a history of left field maybe picks than taking the obvious safe option.
How many bloody flankers have we taken to turn into midfielders ? That is not the safe option.

I'll keep this simple.

We picked up a bloke who could have upside, he's 25. He should be showing more than he has already. Even more since he's probably available as a rookie selection.

I want us to start taking punts on kids with huge upside, not on 25 year olds with some upside.


Fun fact, we've had two (midfield) kids selected on the rookie list in the past decade TWO (midfielders). Having seen both, through Trent Mynott and Will Hams deserved at least one more year on our rookie list but were subsequently delisted which in hindsight was ok.

Here is an alarming stat for you;

mature aged (21+) kids (18 - 20)

Mature aged (16 selected)
(21) 2
(20) 2
(19) 2
(18) 2
(17) 1
(16) 1
(14) 4
(13) 2

Kids (13)
(21) 1
(20) 1
(19) 2
(18) 2
(17) 2
(16) 3
(14) 0
(13) 2

[note. I'm willing to pass of 2015 as we obviously did what we did to offset the pending suspensions]


Now, it's neat giving these mature aged guys a crack and all but surely we know what we've got with Guelfi as an example. Why is he still on the list rather than seeking a replacement? Because we don't.

 

[CBombers17]

That is a fair enough comment. It is based more on selecting a position that does need covering rather than the outrage of picking a 25 year old player who needs some level of development. If we do get outraged at getting a couple of picks wrong in every draft then we are going to be outraged a lot. Melbourne had a lot of ordinary picks in the Mahoney / Taylor period when they where building what they have now and it still had to be finished of with some good FA / trades.

On the whole, do you think we are getting as good a return on the later picks as we used to?

It seems like we used to nail the second rounders (and beyond) and stuff up the earlier picks. Now not so much (thinking Cahill and Johnson types (around where we tool Clunk and Fatasia) but doing well with our first rounders and going great at the midsection thing - which overall seems fairly solid.

 

[ant555]

I'll keep this simple.

We picked up a bloke who could have upside, he's 25. He should be showing more than he has already. Even more since he's probably available as a rookie selection.

I want us to start taking punts on kids with huge upside, not on 25 year olds with some upside.


Fun fact, we've had two kids selected on the rookie list in the past decade TWO. Having seen both, through Trent Mynott and Will Hams deserved at least one more year on our rookie list but were subsequently delisted which in hindsight was ok.

Here is an alarming stat for you;

mature aged (21+) kids (18 - 20)

Mature aged (16 selected)
(21) 2
(20) 2
(19) 2
(18) 2
(17) 1
(16) 1
(14) 4
(13) 2

Kids (13)
(21) 1
(20) 1
(19) 2
(18) 2
(17) 2
(16) 3
(14) 0
(13) 2

[note. I'm willing to pass of 2015 as we obviously did what we did to offset the pending suspensions]


Now, it's neat giving these mature aged guys a crack and all but surely we know what we've got with Guelfi as an example. Why is he still on the list rather than seeking a replacement? Because we don't.

I will keep it simple. Stop crossing over two different drafting strategies !
What is the ratio for the last two years. It is not that ****ing hard. Not even sure what your table is showing. You have not counted the 5 taken in the ND in 2020 as kids or the 3 out of four we took in last years ND.
The stats that matter now. In the last two draft / trade periods we have taken 10 players aged 18. One player aged 19. 3 players aged 20. One 24, one 25 and two 27. Both the 27 are in the senior side. The 24 has played some senior footy. The one 25 is 4 games in playing VFL and is a bit of a long shot now.
That is what we have done.
What we have done previously to get to this point is a different argument. It is exactly why we are where we are now and why we have to turn the list over. That is simple. No one is saying our previous 10 to 15 years before 202 was a flop.

Mynott was a victim of reduced list sizes.

Wanganeen is seen as a Geulfi replacement. They know they will have access to Alwyn jnr who given a year or two is a Geulfi replacement. Nick Martin is a smart half forward already in the role. Snelling has a lot of years left playing the defensive forward role. Right now Geulfi is the back up because Walla and Snelling are not on the park. It does not get any more simple. They have also looked to try and fill the role but they did not get the trade done and they kept Ferjo jnr in the system to work on his development via VFL.

Everyone knows our drafting has been average. How many times have I mentioned it in the last 10 years ?
Trouble is you are flat out refusing to look at the last two periods in isolation and one decision they mad on a 25 year old defender has your pants in a knot.

Take a look at Melbourne's drafting between 20 from 2011 and 2019 and see how many misses they had yet it was much improved under Mahoney and Taylor with Viney as list manager for a fair period of it.
People seem to forget it is Rob Forster - Knight who is our head of recruiting now.

 

[ant555]

On the whole, do you think we are getting as good a return on the later picks as we used to?

It seems like we used to nail the second rounders (and beyond) and stuff up the earlier picks. Now not so much (thinking Cahill and Johnson types (around where we tool Clunk and Fatasia) but doing well with our first rounders and going great at the midsection thing - which overall seems fairly solid.

I am not sure we can judge 2020-2021 yet. We did not have any picks in the 20-40 range so it has been 4 in the 6 to 10 range then everything else third round and back. Previously we have had some good second and third round picks but also had some total wipe outs. One thing we have never done on a regular basis is land good early picks as well as a late gem. It has always bee a fail at one end or the other.

 

[Lore]

I will keep it simple. Stop crossing over two different drafting strategies !
What is the ratio for the last two years. It is not that ******* hard. Not even sure what your table is showing. You have not counted the 5 taken in the ND in 2020 as kids or the 3 out of four we took in last years ND.
The stats that matter now. In the last two draft / trade periods we have taken 10 players aged 18. One player aged 19. 3 players aged 20. One 24, one 25 and two 27. Both the 27 are in the senior side. The 24 has played some senior footy. The one 25 is 4 games in playing VFL and is a bit of a long shot now.
That is what we have done.
What we have done previously to get to this point is a different argument. It is exactly why we are where we are now and why we have to turn the list over. That is simple. No one is saying our previous 10 to 15 years before 202 was a flop.

Mynott was a victim of reduced list sizes.

Wanganeen is seen as a Geulfi replacement. They know they will have access to Alwyn jnr who given a year or two is a Geulfi replacement. Nick Martin is a smart half forward already in the role. Snelling has a lot of years left playing the defensive forward role. Right now Geulfi is the back up because Walla and Snelling are not on the park. It does not get any more simple. They have also looked to try and fill the role but they did not get the trade done and they kept Ferjo jnr in the system to work on his development via VFL.

Everyone knows our drafting has been average. How many times have I mentioned it in the last 10 years ?
Trouble is you are flat out refusing to look at the last two periods in isolation and one decision they mad on a 25 year old defender has your pants in a knot.

Take a look at Melbourne's drafting between 20 from 2011 and 2019 and see how many misses they had yet it was much improved under Mahoney and Taylor with Viney as list manager for a fair period of it.
People seem to forget it is Rob Forster - Knight who is our head of recruiting now.

Adrian Dodoro could be the water boy and he'd still be the one people talk about on BigFooty

 

[Yoda_]

I will keep it simple. Stop crossing over two different drafting strategies !
What is the ratio for the last two years. It is not that ******* hard. Not even sure what your table is showing. You have not counted the 5 taken in the ND in 2020 as kids or the 3 out of four we took in last years ND.
The stats that matter now. In the last two draft / trade periods we have taken 10 players aged 18. One player aged 19. 3 players aged 20. One 24, one 25 and two 27. Both the 27 are in the senior side. The 24 has played some senior footy. The one 25 is 4 games in playing VFL and is a bit of a long shot now.
That is what we have done.
What we have done previously to get to this point is a different argument. It is exactly why we are where we are now and why we have to turn the list over. That is simple. No one is saying our previous 10 to 15 years before 202 was a flop.

Mynott was a victim of reduced list sizes.

Wanganeen is seen as a Geulfi replacement. They know they will have access to Alwyn jnr who given a year or two is a Geulfi replacement. Nick Martin is a smart half forward already in the role. Snelling has a lot of years left playing the defensive forward role. Right now Geulfi is the back up because Walla and Snelling are not on the park. It does not get any more simple. They have also looked to try and fill the role but they did not get the trade done and they kept Ferjo jnr in the system to work on his development via VFL.

Everyone knows our drafting has been average. How many times have I mentioned it in the last 10 years ?
Trouble is you are flat out refusing to look at the last two periods in isolation and one decision they mad on a 25 year old defender has your pants in a knot.

Take a look at Melbourne's drafting between 20 from 2011 and 2019 and see how many misses they had yet it was much improved under Mahoney and Taylor with Viney as list manager for a fair period of it.
People seem to forget it is Rob Forster - Knight who is our head of recruiting now.

Banging on about the balance is shifting, it's not Dodoro, it's someone else is cool and all but when it looks like a lemon, it is usually a lemon and these last two periods as you want us to focus on have Adrian written all over it.

I feel we are agreeing on what needs to happen but the reasons behind it are very different and I'm happy to agree to disagree on this one.


Fwiw, we have taken 3 mature aged guys and 3 kids outside the top 50 in the last two draft periods same shit. different year.

 

[Lore]

I am not sure we can judge 2020-2021 yet. We did not have any picks in the 20-40 range so it has been 4 in the 6 to 10 range then everything else third round and back. Previously we have had some good second and third round picks but also had some total wipe outs. One thing we have never done on a regular basis is land good early picks as well as a late gem. It has always bee a fail at one end or the other.

2020-2021 has the covid factor as well, lots of kids with very little exposed form and no VFL for a couple of years either so very little available knowledge about mature prospects. Scouts unable to travel to get to games unless they were already based in a state that wasn't locked down at the time.

The first round is unlikely to be an issue but it does affect the depth of the draft and what is known about the available players, the later you go the worse it is. We've made good use of the SSP to check out a few options and then make the decisions at the end of pre-season though.

What you can say about McDonagh is he put in the work, hired a personal trainer, put all of his resources into getting himself onto a list. You certainly couldn't say he's just there to collect a pay check, and if there's a guy who will get the best out of himself and maximise the opportunities he has, that would be him. One might even dare to say 'blue collar'. The question remains of whether he has the talent to make it, but when you're plumbing the depths of the draft there are stupider things you could take a punt on. He was our final pick, we already had Hobbs and Lord, and only 15 players were taken after him. Pick 50 last year might as well have been pick 65 in a normal year.

 

[ant555]

Banging on about the balance is shifting, it's not Dodoro, it's someone else is cool and all but when it looks like a lemon, it is usually a lemon and these last two periods as you want us to focus on have Adrian written all over it.

I feel we are agreeing on what needs to happen but the reasons behind it are very different and I'm happy to agree to disagree on this one.


Fwiw, we have taken 3 mature aged guys and 3 kids outside the top 50 in the last two draft periods same shit. different year.

For what it is worth if you can not see how they have restructured things and want to keep changing your goal posts then it is not my problem.
I doubt we could ever have the same conversations we ever used to have at the VFL as you totally disregard any inside info I have to put on the table.
You just yell at the clouds. You keep telling us how crap what we have been in recruiting but you seem surprised we are still crap and you keep talking about what we do with picks after 50 when it has been the stuff up picks inside 50 and topping up which has ****ed us over. Your opinion fine but my opinion is it a very simplistic view that is looking at only a portion of the facts.
So we take 1 25 year old player at pick 50 and it is a disaster.
We took the best inside midfielder we will have taken in 15 years as well and we did that because he was the best player there and we did not get too cute about the selection and say nah we will not take him because we really want this other bloke.
Your last line is the sort of horse shit dumb ass I expect from you these days . It is nothing like the level we used to discuss at VFL games.
You do not want to have some real facts. Not my problem turbo.

 

[CBombers17]

I am not sure we can judge 2020-2021 yet. We did not have any picks in the 20-40 range so it has been 4 in the 6 to 10 range then everything else third round and back. Previously we have had some good second and third round picks but also had some total wipe outs. One thing we have never done on a regular basis is land good early picks as well as a late gem. It has always bee a fail at one end or the other.

It might be dangerous or wishful thinking but it seems like we've really only needed to weed out some of the deeply stupid shit certain individuals in the recruiting department believed (and acted on) to have a fair chance at building a good list.

Sure we have once again worked out how to prioritise talls over everything else (as is Dodoros self admitted approach) but if they can balance that out and stop trying to invent the next Bont we should be on to something.

 

[Yoda_]

It might be dangerous or wishful thinking but it seems like we've really only needed to weed out some of the deeply stupid shit certain individuals in the recruiting department believed (and acted on) to have a fair chance at building a good list.

Sure we have once again worked out how to prioritise talls over everything else (as is Dodoros self admitted approach) but if they can balance that out and stop trying to invent the next Bont we should be on to something.

Filling position a with a kid who had specialised that in there development years seems to be a big priority. None of this flankers into mids shit we've seen over the years. Perhaps Ant is right that the momentum is changing and the wider view of the recruiting department is having that say.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Right now?

No defensive discipline in the midfield yesterday.

Stringer, Merrett, Jones, Langford, Tippa, Snelling, Stewart out.

 

[ant555]

It might be dangerous or wishful thinking but it seems like we've really only needed to weed out some of the deeply stupid shit certain individuals in the recruiting department believed (and acted on) to have a fair chance at building a good list.

Sure we have once again worked out how to prioritise talls over everything else (as is Dodoros self admitted approach) but if they can balance that out and stop trying to invent the next Bont we should be on to something.

Lot of if but true. I will not put any sugar on it. Adrian and his old style ways have hurt. The only reason I still have hope and keep talking about the new system is Adrian is no longer the whole show. He is a quarter of it and as mad as it sounds they are using his best skills which is talking to people, getting the back ground stories etc to advantage and leaving the actual player watching to RFN and his team and they have moved into this century with the software they are using. Right now our list management is Recruiting team , football manager , coaching staff and Dodoro and they all have equal parts to play unlike 3 years ago when it was Dodoro.
Not going to argue Dodoro should not have to pay a price for previous failures. He should but it is no longer his show. It is Josh Mahoney's show despite Adrian's face popping up in the media in his list management role which by the way is another of his strengths, talking shit in front of a camera while RFK and his team quietly go about what they are doing.

 

[Yoda_]

Lot of if but true. I will not put any sugar on it. Adrian and his old style ways have hurt. The only reason I still have hope and keep talking about the new system is Adrian is no longer the whole show. He is a quarter of it and as mad as it sounds they are using his best skills which is talking to people, getting the back ground stories etc to advantage and leaving the actual player watching to RFN and his team and they have moved into this century with the software they are using. Right now our list management is Recruiting team , football manager , coaching staff and Dodoro and they all have equal parts to play unlike 3 years ago when it was Dodoro.
Not going to argue Dodoro should not have to pay a price for previous failures. He should but it is no longer his show. It is Josh Mahoney's show despite Adrian's face popping up in the media in his list management role which by the way is another of his strengths, talking shit in front of a camera while RFK and his team quietly go about what they are doing.

Thanks for clarifying my question mate, appreciate this

 

[CBombers17]

Lot of if but true. I will not put any sugar on it. Adrian and his old style ways have hurt. The only reason I still have hope and keep talking about the new system is Adrian is no longer the whole show. He is a quarter of it and as mad as it sounds they are using his best skills which is talking to people, getting the back ground stories etc to advantage and leaving the actual player watching to RFN and his team and they have moved into this century with the software they are using. Right now our list management is Recruiting team , football manager , coaching staff and Dodoro and they all have equal parts to play unlike 3 years ago when it was Dodoro.
Not going to argue Dodoro should not have to pay a price for previous failures. He should but it is no longer his show. It is Josh Mahoney's show despite Adrian's face popping up in the media in his list management role which by the way is another of his strengths, talking shit in front of a camera while RFK and his team quietly go about what they are doing.

It's very refreshing to hear TBH. I know that RFK has been held back in many respects and that we were a long way behind clubs who have invested $ in areas like data science for recruitment- and seen the results (Freo are one - in fact their guy was tracking very well but that's another story).

It will take them time to get up to speed of course but its exciting to hear the guys will actually be able to look at new ideas at the club again. It frustrated the shit out of me to know we were doing nothing in these areas to improve meanwhile being fed absolute rubbish by the club about programs that didn't exist and elite systems blah.

As for Dodoro there's no point getting rid of someone if they can add value (he didn't cross any lines etc). Personally I don't care who the names are as long as they are actually doing a very good job - their job - and not just getting in the way of progress - same goes for X and anyone else who needed 'realignment'. But they need to be on a short leash IMO.

 

[goal kicking wingman]

Why are we shit? Because players have never needed to be hell bent on team success. We've been a team of individuals worrying about themselves (and their own contracts) that they couldn't give a shit about the team. Do you really think Zaka, Heppell, McVeigh, Stanton etc are burning inside that they've never won a final? They are happy that they have had good careers and been great players but that is it.

Yeah mate 100% there is no desperation with any these players all downhill skiers. I've seriously never seen a team of pretenders like i did yesterday absolute witches hats, i was such an embrassment. Some of the nuff nuff supporters got excited in the last when we kicked 3 goals in junk time. Just enough for them to sleep better knowing its all part of Trucks masterplan

 

[Zach Package]

Dialogue around the club at the moment is a bit shit if I’m honest.

Fell into finals last year on the back of Freo kicking themselves out of 6 or 7 games and Richmond shitting the bed, jettisoned plenty of experience and now smashed by injuries and all of a sudden everyone is surprised that we’re worse.

Progress is rarely linear.

 

[bombadeer]

Hard to blame anyone other than the players for lack of defensive efforts. I’d question motivation or fitness (not that there are not lots of issues with the list otherwise).

 

[ant555]

Dialogue around the club at the moment is a bit shit if I’m honest.

Fell into finals last year on the back of Freo kicking themselves out of 6 or 7 games and Richmond shitting the bed, jettisoned plenty of experience and now smashed by injuries and all of a sudden everyone is surprised that we’re worse.

Progress is rarely linear.

Problem with footy clubs is it not. They are always looking for a nice fluffy angle and rarely step into another lane. On the odd time they do the players get offended or they get bashed in the media so they all stay on happy fluffy street. That is why I only ever have a quick glance at the after match presser. Allt he other stuff that hits my inbox generally gets deleted.