Why won't Richmond win the flag in 2021?

[Chinacats]

Some Reasons for the Tigers:
They are the same team - but now with Chol and CCJ proving themselves.
Riewoltd of 2021 looks like the Jack of 2017.
The teams outside the 8, like the Saints and GWS, are stumbling.
If I was Melbourne or WB or the Lions, I would be very scared right now. Why shouldn't they be scared? Tigers are flag favorites for me.

What do you think has changed?

Older, arguably less hungry after 3 cups and likely not top 4 finish.
But yes wouldn’t want to meet them at their best in September.
I still have them at the top of the tree but it will be tough for them.
Others get their chance...if tigers don’t finish top 4. . let’s see if they’re good enough!

 

[AFLXFACTOR]

TBH, credit to Richmond for seizing the small window they had to get the flag in 2019. Can't rule out a flag this year, but it would be a really tough slog.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

Because teams improve, hard to stay at the top when you’re being hunted 24/7.

Not making top 4 will make it very hard but they could still get there.

 

[garbo]

Only losses have been against the current sides above them and they aren’t loosing to sides below them. Only play 2 sides above them the rest of the year. So won’t go any worse than 8-2 for the rest of the year. At minimum that will put them 5th or 6th possibly top 4. Then they just need to turn it on for finals if they still have it.

 

[Stealth69]

If we get our full team come finals time...I fear no one

We've had more injuries (mainly in midfield, couple in defence) than in previous years... In the end I see it as they've "been rested" and young players have had a feel for senior footy

Barring injuries, if we beat WC this week and then have a bye... We know what is needed come second half of season

Experience can ONLY be taught, we have plenty of that

Time to make history!

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I know they've started slow the last couple of seasons but they do look to have dropped a bit. Still a good chance, but there wasn't a team as dominant as Melbourne in those years. Even if they dominate like in 2018 a lot of things can go wrong. Just being off in one game is enough.

Not entirely true. The Cats were 11-1 and 150% in 2019, same as the Dees this year.

 

[schmuttt]

Not entirely true. The Cats were 11-1 and 150% in 2019, same as the Dees this year.

Didn't win two games in a row for the rest of the year I believe after being 11-1, I hope we do better than that!

 

[NetworkNerd]

Still Geelongs flag to lose. 3rd on the ladder with no Dangerfield... Imagine when he is playing

 

[nut]

Still Geelongs flag to lose. 3rd on the ladder with no Dangerfield... Imagine when he is playing

Lol.... Mr Dangerflop.

 

[PCORF]

If they miss the top 4, they won't win the flag. I think they are going to give it their best shot.

 

[Stabby McGee]

I think Melbourne will be similar this year to Essendon of 2000... They are just hungry and full of confidence..

But I do think most teams in the 8 would put Richmond down 1st as the opponent they would be least confident against.

Martin becomes superhuman in the finals... He just drags the whole team along with him... I think he finds the regular season boring... Haha

I’m bookmarking the thread coz I reckon the troll op will look stupid in September

But also on the point of Ess 2000... nah. They were the best team in 99 but blew the prelim. These things don’t happen out of the blue.

Richmond were the same. They were building for a couple of years before it really clicked

 

[telsor]

As has been demonstrated several times over the past few years, the team that was the best through H&A has lost out to a team that hit form and got their full team on the park at the pointy end of the year.

Partly that's good planning, and partly it's just luck.

 

[dean33]

I think top 4 all comes down to this week vs west coast. Win that and we are right on track for it with only only 3 more tough games being giants away and lions and cats at home. Could afford to drop 1 more possibly 2 and still make it depending on percentage. Also just need Melbourne and the dogs to keep on winning and lions, cats and port to drop a couple. If we hit finals fit and in form it’s game on, even from outside top 4.

 

[RichLeMonde]

Why? Because they are not playing as well as several other teams. They have struggled to beat top 4 sides. Teams like Geelong have added a plethora of good-excellent players. Brisbane have added Daniher. One of those teams beat Richmond in a final last year and the other was only stopped by the most influential GF player performance I’ve ever seen (with apologies to GAS).

they could win it all if they have a really good run with injuries in the last quarter of the season, and teams above them have particularly bad luck with injuries just as finals arrive, but you wouldn’t bet on that.

Deserve to be longer odds than Brisbane, Geelong, Melbourne and bulldogs. But no one would be shocked if they won it all

 

[Joao]

They are still very good, I just think other teams are better. They never looked vulnerable at the G before but they have this year.

Looking forward to this week. I think with the relative outs, best chance of beating West Coast in Perth in a while.

 

[telsor]

I remember hearing a quote from a Poker player entering a tournament a few years back.

The gist of it was that he figured he had about a 1% chance of winning, but given it was a huge tournament, that was a lot better than most, so he was feeling good about it.

I'd figure Richmond has around a 20% chance of winning the flag this year, and while that isn't 'great', most clubs would cut off their right leg for a chance like that.

 

[M0557]

Melbourne rightly deserve some recognition and credit in 2021. 2018 may have been a premature rise, but with the maturity and the way they are dismantling sides, they deserve to be flag favourites.
Something special unfolding at the Dees, as long as they keep healthy.
Richmond we have seen to finish strong, though will be a huge challenge outside the Top 4......
As we have seen with the AFL season, win when it matters......

 

[HalloweenJack]

As long as Richmond finish in the 8 they will win the flag. They are still the best team in the comp. I thought Essendon* would win but the Tigers turned it on for 10 minutes and blew them out of the park. It was the best 10 minutes of footy this year.

 

[Final Siren]

People are writing off Top 4, but things can change quickly.



One week after this article, Richmond lost again, sinking to 7-6 and 9th, two games + percentage behind the Top 4.

Five rounds later, they were in the Top 4, because they strung together wins while Collingwood, GWS and West Coast dropped games.

Doesn't take long for things to turn around if you keep winning.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

because S. Hocking got angry at Richmond being too good.

 

[HTT]

I really want Melbourne to hold their form, us to get motoring in the back half of the year and for us to play them in a final. Two teams with a pretty similar approach but at vastly different stages in their story. (fingers crossed) In front of a huge crowd at the MCG. It has the makings of an absolute classic (and I hope we win but even our absolute best vs the way Melbourne have played this year would be a tough ask)

 

[G String]

As with all important football issues I like to refer to the Vol-KANE-Oh - so, no Richmond cannot win - unless the corrupt VFL conspire to make it happen again, umpiring etc.

 

[dean33]

People are writing off Top 4, but things can change quickly.

View attachment 1149011

One week after this article, Richmond lost again, sinking to 7-6 and 9th, two games + percentage behind the Top 4.

Five rounds later, they were in the Top 4, because they strung together wins while Collingwood, GWS and West Coast dropped games.

Doesn't take long for things to turn around if you keep winning.

I actually messaged Dinny the writer of that piece on the Afl website and told him he was being premature. We went back and forth all season until after we won the flag where I told him “I told you so Dinny” he was very good natured about it and actually admitted finally he was wrong. Doubt you’ll see him doing the same thing again this season, not yet anyway.

 

[Baird]

Better teams this year, this is the most competition they've ever had.

Melbourne looking like Geelong of 2008, Footscray being not much worse and Geelong and Brisbane on pace for 16 wins and would be top 2 most years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think in the last 4 seasons, where Richmond played its best footy no team could go with them. I don’t think that is true this season.

If Richmond plays its best in the finals it will be in genuinely in the mix. But Brisbane and Melbourne in particular look like they would at least stand an even chance against Richmond’s best. The Bulldogs and Cats I am not fully convinced at this stage and Port, so far at least, look below the very best teams. Swans to me are not at the level of these type of teams, they are upper mid table level, their early season smashings of Lions and Tigers look outliers. Eagles look way off it, but cannot be properly judged until we see if they get all their injured players back fit and firing.

Melbourne and the Lions though if they have a fair run with injuries, the best the Tigers could get to would be 50-50 in finals against those teams imo. All top 8 teams however, would be at least some chance to beat the Tigers if things fell their way.