TAS Will a team go to Tassie

[Rich01]

Theoretically yes, but then when Good Times come back the AFL would have to spend even more expanding again to capitalise.

It won't happen, despite the wet dreams of many (not you) Richmond supporters.

There’s no need to personalise it and bring the club I support into the conversation. Taking the emotion out of these conversations is difficult for some I know, but it’s an interesting thread and the topic deserves proper discussion.

The issue will be that the next broadcast rights deal may not be as lucrative as previously expected. This is the AFLs major source of revenue. If revenue income declines, to make the same amount of profit, or even potentially not make a loss, costs need to come down. This could come in many ways. Removing clubs that cost tens of millions of dollars a year could be one drastic measure. Stripping back football club costs significantly is already on the table and is think this is only the beginning of where the AFL is looking to save $$$ for themselves and clubs to be viable in the future.

On top of this is a new $650m loan that needs to be serviced.

It’s going to be a while before those good times you mentioned return.

 

[Del191229]

The issue will be that the next broadcast rights deal may not be as lucrative as previously expected. This is the AFLs major source of revenue. If revenue income declines, to make the same amount of profit, or even potentially not make a loss, costs need to come down. This could come in many ways. Removing clubs that cost tens of millions of dollars a year could be one drastic measure. Stripping back football club costs significantly is already on the able and is think this is only the beginning of where the AFL is looking to save $$$ for themselves and clubs to be viable in the future.

The only clubs that cost tens of millions a year to support are outside Victoria and I don't see how the AFL can cut them and not hurt the broadcast/media rights more.

I get the theory, but I don't see any practical way clubs can be cut - as in, not playing in the comp he next year - in straight dollar terms.

Let alone factoring in the enormous PR costs the AFL would incur.

The AFL basically murdered Fitzroy as an AFL club in 96 and the backlash was so intense they decided they could never do it again.

A footy generation later they tried to bribe us up to the Gold Cast and that didn't work (and never will for any club)

Another generation later and they'll try another method - infiltration and the softest possible takeover from within.

This is why St Kilda are hugely vulnerable.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Well it’s like this TV revenue is about to go down so the AFL would need to consider the following 17 games per season from next TV rights with finals with maybe state of origin carnival thrown in to keep the masses happy

17 games a season will never happen again seasons will get longer not shortened more games = more money pretty simple really

 

[Tasmanian saint]

There’s no need to personalise it and bring the club I support into the conversation. Taking the emotion out of these conversations is difficult for some I know, but it’s an interesting thread and the topic deserves proper discussion.

The issue will be that the next broadcast rights deal may not be as lucrative as previously expected. This is the AFLs major source of revenue. If revenue income declines, to make the same amount of profit, or even potentially not make a loss, costs need to come down. This could come in many ways. Removing clubs that cost tens of millions of dollars a year could be one drastic measure. Stripping back football club costs significantly is already on the table and is think this is only the beginning of where the AFL is looking to save $$$ for themselves and clubs to be viable in the future.

On top of this is a new $650m loan that needs to be serviced.

It’s going to be a while before those good times you mentioned return.

They have a line of credit for 650 million its highly unlikely they will use any where that amount a number of clubs have stated they will source there own fiancé and a few have sufficient cash reserves

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Since you live there, what are your thoughts on it being a Canberra side instead?

I think Canberra would be a good option what makes it hard is gws are really relying on the support they get there at moment they would be unsustainable if that got taken from them for at least the next 10-15 years

 

[Freomaniac]

I think that you may be close to the mark here. It's quite possible that a club that's not the usual suspects, [Nth, Saints, GC] that end up in Tassie because they see the "dynamics" of moving there benefitting their clubs long term interest. They can choose when and where rather than getting shunted off!

It could be a team that is close to maxing out its supporter base.
Or a club that no longer has a readily defined geographic area of support.
Could it be a Port Adelaide or a Geelong for instance?
Does the club have to come from Victoria?

You really think Port Adelaide or Geelong will be relocated to Tassie? No chance. Dont get me Wrong, Port struggled on field and off field from 2008-2012 but that move to Adelaide oval saved that club. When Port made finals in 2014, that 1st year at Adelaide oval, they were averaging 40,000 a game. Mind you back in 2014, it was $170 for a season ticket for a cheap seat or a spot on the hill. Docklands is a good ground dont get me wrong, but whats unique about it?

You think one of the WA clubs will be forced to Relocate to tassie? Again no chance. Hell during that Subiaco era of 2002-17, Both WA clubs would always get at least 30-35,000 on a 43,500 seat subiaco on a sunday dead slot of a sunday arvo or twilight game.

The AFL wont kill of neither NSW clubs. Sydney gets their 30,000 at the SCG and have around 40,000 members. It took the AFL 30-35 years to make the swans as big as your mid supporter base victorian club. The wont kill off GWS as they had on field success and have 30,000 members.

I dont see the Queenland clubs go either. Brisbane has finally turned the corner and made finals. Gold Coast are struggling, dont get me wrong. The AFL are willing to spend more money because they are doing good in Queensland in a grassroots level.



As I said, If Tassie gets in its because of 1 of 2 options.....

option 1: Tassie gets in and 2 struggling vic clubs merge. So that means its still 18 AFL clubs.

Option 2: No merges. Tassie Comes in as the 19th club then a 20th team comes in.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think Canberra would be a good option what makes it hard is gws are really relying on the support they get there at moment they would be unsustainable if that got taken from them for at least the next 10-15 years

And thats what I think will happen.

Wait you think GWS are relying on Canberras support? I disagree.

Didnt you say that 50% of GWS fans come from Canberra? I disagree. More likely 15-25%. GWS wont die off, in 10-15 years time, I see them as big as a supporter base as the sydney swans.

If Tassie is the 19th team. Canberra can be the 20th.

the population of Canberra is 420,000. They could be another Gold coast averaging 10-15,000 a game.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

And thats what I think will happen.

Wait you think GWS are relying on Canberras support? I disagree.

Didnt you say that 50% of GWS fans come from Canberra? I disagree. More likely 15-25%. GWS wont die off, in 10-15 years time, I see them as big as a supporter base as the sydney swans.

If Tassie is the 19th team. Canberra can be the 20th.

the population of Canberra is 420,000. They could be another Gold coast averaging 10-15,000 a game.

Yeah I was over exaggerating at 50 % and yes I don’t think gws will die off the afl wouldn’t allow it but they get very good support in Canberra they have a decent percentage of there small membership base based there even at 15-25% can they really afford to loose that currently get the largest afl dividend buy 4 million if they lost the act they would need a extra 3-4 million from the afl on top of what they already get I don’t think it’s foolish to say they are relying on Canberra that’s why the afl wouldn’t take it from them for the next decade at least anyway people need to stop being obsessed with population numbers a Canberra or Tasmanian team would have substantially more support in the short to medium term then the suns !

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Yeah I was over exaggerating at 50 % and yes I don’t think gws will die off the afl wouldn’t allow it but they get very good support in Canberra they have a decent percentage of there small membership base based there even at 15-25% can they really afford to loose that currently get the largest afl dividend buy 4 million if they lost the act they would need a extra 3-4 million from the afl on top of what they already get I don’t think it’s foolish to say they are relying on Canberra that’s why the afl wouldn’t take it from them for the next decade at least anyway people need to stop being obsessed with population numbers a Canberra or Tasmanian team would have substantially more support in the short to medium term then the suns !

And yes one day they may have a support base similar to the swans but it’s taken them almost 40 years to get to there position in Sydney something to think about when comparing to gws and another reason the afl wouldn’t take Canberra from them

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah I was over exaggerating at 50 % and yes I don’t think gws will die off the afl wouldn’t allow it but they get very good support in Canberra they have a decent percentage of there small membership base based there even at 15-25% can they really afford to loose that currently get the largest afl dividend buy 4 million if they lost the act they would need a extra 3-4 million from the afl on top of what they already get I don’t think it’s foolish to say they are relying on Canberra that’s why the afl wouldn’t take it from them for the next decade at least anyway people need to stop being obsessed with population numbers a Canberra or Tasmanian team would have substantially more support in the short to medium term then the suns !

For some strange reason, I can somehow see the suns turn it around. I mean they are bad, but they have a lot of money from the AFL to keep them up.

Think of the sydney swans from 1992-4, they had no money and little hope but some how made a grand final in 1996.

And yes one day they may have a support base similar to the swans but it’s taken them almost 40 years to get to there position in Sydney something to think about when comparing to gws and another reason the afl wouldn’t take Canberra from them

Again, you look at Sydney now. They average 30-35,000 at the SCG and 40,000 members. you would assume they would be profitable or at least break even with those numbers. Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawks would be bigger than that.

I think Geelong would have similar figures as Kardinia Park holds around 35,000 seats. But they make more profits in a 35,000 seat Kardinia Park than a 50-55,000 seat docklands because they are dirt cheap.

I have suggested for Princes Park to become an AFL venue again and give it a seating capacity of 25-35,000 seats. Considering its in North of Melbourne, North should play there. its Better on tv getting 20,000 people in a 30,000 seat stadium than 20,000 people in a 50-55,000 seat docklands.

Freo has similar numbers back in 2004-5. Averaging 30,000 a game at subi and had 40,000 members and were making 1-1.5 million in profits.

 

[Bjo187]

Yeah GWS seem to have a lot of rusted on support in canberra now, i also noticed in a pre-season game at wagga that the crowd was packed with people wearing gws jumpers, the giants are probably more popular in these regions than in Western Sydney at the moment, the AFL would be stupid to take that away.

 

[St Plugger]

The AFL basically murdered Fitzroy as an AFL club in 96 and the backlash was so intense they decided they could never do it again.

A footy generation later they tried to bribe us up to the Gold Cast and that didn't work (and never will for any club)

Another generation later and they'll try another method - infiltration and the softest possible takeover from within.

This is why St Kilda are hugely vulnerable.

I suspect that Melbourne may currently have more "AFL infitration" than does St Kilda!

 

[Ando727]

Would be interesting to know how many Tasmanian's already committed to supporting a team for years would be willing to ditch that team for a new Tassie one. I know i wouldn't and all my friends and family feel the same, yes footy is super popular down here but finding enough support may not be as easy as some people seem to think.

I don't know if "ditching" is the right word, but I would certainly give my primary support to the Tassie team. I would always keenly follow the Demons, but if we had a local team, that I could go see just down the road 8-10 times a year, it's the logical choice - plus I think the local fanaticism would become infectious. Smallest state taking on the nation - it will gain traction, trust me.

 

[Freomaniac]

I don't know if "ditching" is the right word, but I would certainly give my primary support to the Tassie team. I would always keenly follow the Demons, but if we had a local team, that I could go see just down the road 8-10 times a year, it's the logical choice - plus I think the local fanaticism would become infectious. Smallest state taking on the nation - it will gain traction, trust me.

I dont mind if it gains traction. Will it be sustainable?

 

[Demon bhoy]

Clearly the best option for the AFL in the longer term is to create a relegation system for all the Victorian teams. The year the AFL decides to create a new team in Tasmania, that they so richly deserve, the lowest 3 ranked Victorian teams on the ladder should be relegated to the VFL.

Based on current ladder positions, all of the Dogs, Geelong and Melbourne would be relegated this year for example.

In subsequent years, the lowest 2 teams from Victoria, should again be relegated to the VFL. With the top teams from the VFL promoted to join AFL ranks.

Obviously this is a win win win for everyone. A team in Tassie. A reduction to a 16 team premier competition. A culling of excessive Melbourne based teams, though not a loss of the teams to the system. An opportunity for any of the VFL teams to be promoted to the big league. They’ll all have something to genuinely play for.


* Seriously, this deserves its own thread

It does deserve its own thread and over time we can put all the other really shit ideas in there as well

 

[SaltPeter]

It does deserve its own thread and over time we can put all the other really shit ideas in there as well

Soz friend, which part didn’t you like?

 

[rocker_oz33]

Would the players like to live in Hobart?
Hobart does not seem big enough.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

option 1: Tassie gets in and 2 struggling vic clubs merge. So that means its still 18 AFL clubs.

I honestly think the two poorest Melbourne clubs would be better off merging so they could be guaranteed financial security and stability in the long term, plus with a bigger fan base they'd get more MCG games. But it won't happen, fans would riot unless their club is at death's door and about to be chucked out of the comp.

Option 2: No merges. Tassie Comes in as the 19th club then a 20th team comes in.

If it happens, it will happen this way.

 

[Sir Skid]

View attachment 867659

Oh, its a couch!

 

[Freomaniac]

I honestly think the two poorest Melbourne clubs would be better off merging so they could be guaranteed financial security and stability in the long term, plus with a bigger fan base they'd get more MCG games. But it won't happen, fans would riot unless their club is at death's door and about to be chucked out of the comp.


If it happens, it will happen this way.

Well it would of made Sense North Melbourne and Fitzroy merged in 1996 and be called the North Melbourne lions. Fitzroy being in the Northern suburbs of Victoria, they would of still kept some of their idenity i their home state. Not that North would of Approve of it.

I am a South Adelaide fan in the SANFL and There was a time Sturt double blues could of merged with South Adelaide and be called the southern blues. Sturt won like 7 wooden spoons in a row from 1989-1995. They went 0-22 in 1995. Sturt played its home games at Unley, and thats a couple of kms south of the Adelaide CBD.

Woodville and West Torrens merged at the end of 1990. West Torrens played its home games at Thebarton oval just a couple of Kms west of the Adelaide CBD. Woodville played its home games at Woodville oval in the western suburbs too.

It was basically 2 struggling western suburb sides merging, but they play at Woodville oval.

Woodville started in the comp in 1964. The didint play too many finals from 1964-1990.

West Torrens had a longer and Better history. Came to the SANFL in 1897 but won flags in 1924, 1933, 1945, 1953.

Once they merged, the became a strong side. Won Flags in 1993, 2006 and 2011. Play in a fair bit of grand finals from 1993-2015.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

I dont mind if it gains traction. Will it be sustainable?

Are the Green Bay packers sustainable? You need to look past population figures and potential numbers that may look great on paper but have been shown with gws and the suns they don’t equal support

 

[Demon bhoy]

Soz friend, which part didn’t you like?

I didn’t like any of it, totally unrealistic and unworkable

 

[Freomaniac]

Are the Green Bay packers sustainable? You need to look past population figures and potential numbers that may look great on paper but have been shown with gws and the suns they don’t equal support

I know its Wikipedia but I just looked it up....

Green bay is in the State of Winconsin which is the states population of 5.8 million.

theres only 104,000 people that live in Green bay. They are 180km north of Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has a population of 2 million people. But they do have a team in the NBA called the bucks.

Saying that I follow the EPL and Bournemouths stadium only holds 12,500. Yet they make 90 million a year in tv rights Money for staying in the EPL.

 

[Ando727]

Would the players like to live in Hobart?
Hobart does not seem big enough.

Is Geelong big enough? They're not that different.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

A good build on this would be to merge with one of the two least financial afl clubs. Both GWS and Brisbane are losing the AFL money so there’s great opportunity there.

Except they're not. Brisbane turned a profit this past year, and it's been proven that GWS are a net benefit to the AFL, since the TV value of the 9th game is about $50-60m and GWS receive less than $25m in distributions from head office. Brisbane are in debt from years of accumulated losses, but they're on the upswing and starting to pay that off (or they were before Covid-19).

If we were looking at a truly financial perspective, merging GWS and Brisbane would be the ideal.

I hope you're not in business or any sort of financial job. The AFL are not about to abandon their only full-time team in the third biggest city in the nation, nor are they about to destroy the inroad into a massive untapped growth area that they have so painstakingly built. Can you tell me how this supposed merged entity is to save costs when they're playing half a season in two different states? A merger of two Melbourne teams at least allows an easy rationalisation of resources and doesn't rob fans of a full-time team, since they are based in the same city and will still play 10-11 home games in Melbourne.

Reckon the Goondawindi Bears has a ring to it

We haven't been the Bears for 25 years. Go troll elsewhere.