Will Carlton be the 'bolter' in 2023?

[Monco Matt]

Carlton has all the pieces of the premiership puzzle...........on paper. Therein lies the problem, it is on paper only.

Until Carlton stops their reliance on the few and starts spreading the workload, they will always be a thereabouts team.

So, there is that but also, they need to learn how to win games when under pressure. They give up leads often and tend to go conservative with their ball movement when teams get a run on. They need to develop confidence and trust in themselves and teammates around them to work through situations like that as a collective.

If they can spread workload and improve trust among their playing group, then they can seriously contend. If not, it might be another 9-12 or maybe a sneaky 7th to 8th. They can potentially be big improvers though. It's in their hands.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

When does that insane McGovern contract end? Should be able to get someone better with that money if there’s not long left

2023Contract was front ended IIRC. Might re-sign for something similar to what he will get in 2023.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Could possibly be two role players off from winning a premiership so where’s the money coming from for that if McGovern was front ended?

Made a ladder prediction on another thread and think you’ll finish top 4. Think making the 8 is the pass mark.

Most of the improvement will come from within as we are still relatively young with some maturing to do.

No reason why McGovern can't play an important role for us. Looked comfortable down back this year. But I do think it's 18+ games or out the door for both he and Marchbank, probably Cuningham too.

 

[Yoda_]

Our 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players aren't strong enough?

Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Fadge]

Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Got to love how they fob off suggestions that 'their second, third and fourth tier players aren't strong enough', but if your team misses the finals in a year where you have the Brownlow Medallist AND Coleman Medallist, wouldn't that suggest your problem is exactly that?

 

[Arr0w]

Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure of your point, or are you talking about your club again over the last 2 years?

This is a 2023 thread, and you of all people should know better than using past events as an indication of the future

 

[Arr0w]

Got to love how they fob off suggestions that 'their second, third and fourth tier players aren't strong enough', but if your team misses the finals in a year where you have the Brownlow Medallist AND Coleman Medallist, wouldn't that suggest your problem is exactly that?

You missed the point again, strange though as you were prolific in the Essendon v Carlton thread last preseason where Yoda claimed the Bombers were a top 4 chance and would finish higher than us, due to having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players

 

[Fadge]

You missed the point again, strange though as you were prolific in the Essendon v Carlton thread last preseason where Yoda claimed the Bombers were a top 4 chance and would finish higher than us, due to having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players

Yeah, keep dining out on finishing above Collingwood in 2021 (a year where they finished 17th) and Essendon in 2022 (a year where they finished 15th).

Awesome.

 

[Arr0w]

Yeah, keep dining out on finishing above Collingwood in 2021 (a year where they finished 17th) and Essendon in 2022 (a year where they finished 15th).

Awesome.

Who was talking about the Pies? But 2021 was another failed prediction by you

 

[Fadge]

Who was talking about the Pies? But 2021 was another failed prediction by you

Yes, you've mentioned that about 40 times, hence my reference to 'dining out'...

 

[Arr0w]

Yes, you've mentioned that about 40 times, hence my reference to 'dining out'...

Those facts hey

 

[Fadge]

Facts?

Yes, this specific fact that in the past two seasons, Carlton has finished above Collingwood once (when they finished 17th) and Essendon once (when they finished 15th).

You should be very proud of your club, they are awesome.

Maybe Yoda and I shouldn't have gone out on a limb and predicted one club to finish above another. That way maybe we wouldn't be constantly trolled for making an incorrect prediction (whilst any correct predictions, of which there have been a majority, are not mentioned...)

 

[Arr0w]

Facts?

Yes, this specific fact that in the past two seasons, Carlton has finished above Collingwood once (when they finished 17th) and Essendon once (when they finished 15th).

You should be very proud of your club, they are awesome.

Maybe Yoda and I shouldn't have gone out on a limb and predicted one club to finish above another. That way maybe we wouldn't be constantly trolled for making an incorrect prediction (whilst any correct predictions, of which there have been a majority, are not mentioned...)

You, talking about being trolled?

Why would anyone think your predictions carry any weight

 

[La Dispute]

Old Fudgey though the Dees would miss the finals in 2021.

He’s not the most reliable forecaster.

 

[Rich01]

2023Contract was front ended IIRC. Might re-sign for something similar to what he will get in 2023.

Needs to get fitter. Taken the piss the last few years with the way he’s presented.

 

[La Dispute]

Needs to get fitter. Taken the piss the last few years with the way he’s presented.

He was fit last season. Really trimmed down and was covering the ground beautifully.

Biggest issue with McGovern is how injury prone he is. Looked like he’d found his niche as an intercepting 3rd tall but then predictably got injured and we saw very little of him.

Need one of he or Marchbank to play out a season, but both just haven’t been able to stay on the park and as a result we looked really vulnerable when Weitering went down.

I’m half hoping we bring in another talented key position defender in the upcoming draft because I don’t have a lot of faith in the guys we’ve got on our list remaining injury-free.

 

[Fadge]

My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

My perception of Carlton is as follows:
1. Their top 9 players took to the field in 90% of matches in 2022. This compares favourably will all teams that actually contended in 2022, with the exception of Collingwood (83%).
2. In 2022 they had a Brownlow Medallist and Coleman Medallist; In 2021 they had a Coleman Medallist and a player poll 30 votes in the Brownlow.
3. They have a heap of injury prone players on their list, who have struggled to consistently get in the park in previous seasons. Martin, McGovern, Marchbank, Cuningham for example.
4. They have a number of players on their list who have been given plenty of opportunities at senior level, and it is clear to anyone watching them that they're not good enough to consistently deliver at that level. Dow, O'Brien, Fogarty and I'll throw Silvagni (who busts his gut but we all know he wouldn't be on an AFL list if not for his name) in there.

So are we going to see their top level players barely miss games, and play a greater percentage of games than any other team in the competition?

Are we going to continue to see Carlton produce the Coleman Medallist and regular top 3 placings in the Brownlow Medal?

Are we all of a sudden going the see the injury prone players all get a good run at it and have career best seasons?

Are we going to see the players who have had plenty of opportunities all of a sudden turn it around and become solid contributors at Senior AFL level?

Because this is what we need to see if we are going to see them contend in 2023 and beyond. I am a numbers man, and the numbers aren't in Carlton's favour until they address items #3 and #4 above.

 

[Yoda_]

Not sure of your point, or are you talking about your club again over the last 2 years?

This is a 2023 thread, and you of all people should know better than using past events as an indication of the future

a bolter is someone who surprises, Carlton missing the finals again would be a huge surprise

 

[PumpyChowdown]

a bolter is someone who surprises, Carlton missing the finals again would be a huge surprise

So you're saying we're every chance to be a bolter?

 

[Arr0w]

a bolter is someone who surprises, Carlton missing the finals again would be a huge surprise

Again, has nothing to do with your previous post

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

If you want to use the past as an indicator use all of it, instead of the bits and parts you generally cherry pick.

 

[Arr0w]

My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

Is this the new form of analysis you really want to use as an indication of predictions?

My perception of Carlton is as follows:
1. Their top 9 players took to the field in 90% of matches in 2022. This compares favourably will all teams that actually contended in 2022, with the exception of Collingwood (83%).

Clearly you are using 9 players to cherry pick to try and strengthen your argument, bizarre really

2. In 2022 they had a Brownlow Medallist and Coleman Medallist; In 2021 they had a Coleman Medallist and a player poll 30 votes in the Brownlow.

This is why you receive repetitive replies

3. They have a heap of injury prone players on their list, who have struggled to consistently get in the park in previous seasons. Martin, McGovern, Marchbank, Cuningham for example.

Yes, we do, but Charlie and Doc came back strong from long lay-offs, and again thinking past events will determine whether they stay on the park next year isn't relevant

Nor did it stop the Pies with injury prone Freeman and Scharenberg

4. They have a number of players on their list who have been given plenty of opportunities at senior level, and it is clear to anyone watching them that they're not good enough to consistently deliver at that level. Dow, O'Brien, Fogarty and I'll throw Silvagni (who busts his gut but we all know he wouldn't be on an AFL list if not for his name) in there.

How different is this to any other side, most clubs turnover 8-9 players, but we don't need to push players out and still contribute to their salary

So are we going to see their top level players barely miss games, and play a greater percentage of games than any other team in the competition?

Flawed using 9 players, but everyone knows why

Are we going to continue to see Carlton produce the Coleman Medallist and regular top 3 placings in the Brownlow Medal?

Circular, again. And nothing to do with 2023

Are we all of a sudden going the see the injury prone players all get a good run at it and have career best seasons?

See above

Are we going to see the players who have had plenty of opportunities all of a sudden turn it around and become solid contributors at Senior AFL level?

Kennedy, O'Brien, Cottrell all improved

Because this is what we need to see if we are going to see them contend in 2023 and beyond. I am a numbers man, and the numbers aren't in Carlton's favour until they address items #3 and #4 above.

Numbers? We already know your predictions are poor, along with your maths.

 

[Fadge]

If you want to use the past as an indicator use all of it, instead of the bits and parts you generally cherry pick.

Yeah, unfortunately my crystal ball is broken and my time machine has run out of batteries, so recent past performance is all I have to go on.

 

[Robertio]

Yeah, unfortunately my crystal ball is broken and my time machine has run out of batteries, so recent past performance is all I have to go on.

You're supposed to use you're football knowledge to work out the future mate but yeah can see why you need a crystal ball.

 

[Fadge]

You're supposed to use you're football knowledge to work out the future mate but yeah can see why you need a crystal ball.

Hence my earlier post.

Which is different from many of you Carlton hopefuls - 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance'.