Play Nice Will Geelong win the 2016 premiership?

[baldandbroke]

Yet we continually beat teams who theoretically had a tougher draw. I don't understand the logic. Mathematically we would have had to have played 5 more games - so literally ALL of our double ups - against top 8 sides to lose an extra game (based on the fact that we averaged a loss every 5.5 games against top 8 sides). Yes, playing Essendon and Brisbane twice helped. But whenever we played a strong opponent, aside from the first Sydney game we played well. Even losing to the Giants in round two or whenever it was, we still went close.

The rating of the fixture toughness doesn't look at who you beat or who you lost against. That has more to do with the psychology of your playing group than the fixture.

 

[PhatBoy]

Not sure if maths is your strong topic? Based on capacity of 40,000 x 25% increase = 50,000.

Adelaide Oval - capacity 53k, Footy Park - capacity 51.5k.

PS : is there another stand to be redeveloped after this one?

Yeah I'm an idiot - I was working backwards at 40k being 80% of 50k.

Not sure what the next lot of plans entails.

 

[Mercy Seat]

According to Cameron Ling, geelong have been told they will never be allowed to have a home prelim at KP, regardless of what is having with spotless etc, and regardless of increased capacity.

 

[Benny78]

Should have Menzel back next week. Wouldn't rule us out just yet.

 

[brmi]

All the pressure on the Bulldogs tomorrow, clearly the bye effects the team who wins directly through to the prelim.

Judging by how the Cats played tonight GWS will come out flat so it's the doggies game to lose.

Wouldn't want to lose another prelim

 

[Beutbrute]

has anyone been in to say 'no' since last night yet?

No?


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[Heeney2Franklin]

According to Cameron Ling, geelong have been told they will never be allowed to have a home prelim at KP, regardless of what is having with spotless etc, and regardless of increased capacity.

How does that even make sense? they finished top 2 they should have every right to play a home final at their home ground not have this bullshit of playing a Home QF against Hawthorn at Hawthorn home ground.

 

[wcadams88]

The thread title should now be changed to will Geelong win a premiership again with this list, the answer is no.

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Gold Coast still first on the list? When does the psychological assessment come into your ratings would love to know Geelong mindset

 

[Mercy Seat]

How does that even make sense? they finished top 2 they should have every right to play a home final at their home ground not have this bullshit of playing a Home QF against Hawthorn at Hawthorn home ground.

It's been their finals home ground for 50 years. It's not a big issue.

 

[Mercy Seat]

How does that even make sense? they finished top 2 they should have every right to play a home final at their home ground not have this bullshit of playing a Home QF against Hawthorn at Hawthorn home ground.

Seriously though, what in the AFL does make sense? Everything is geared towards more money and more viewers, that's why there are uneven draws, pre-allocated blockbusters, etc etc. The AFL will never allow more than 20k to be locked out of a game if there's a choice.

 

[Roby]

Gold Coast still first on the list? When does the psychological assessment come into your ratings would love to know Geelong mindset

Just looking at a couple of articles for the Geelong v Sydney match and there is a more positive and in control mindset from Sydney, and a more negative one from Geelong camp.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-09-20...minary-final-geelong-v-sydney-swans.mobileapp

Scott is all about limiting the opposition, their outside run to be specific, they're going in thinking they need to curb the opposition more than playing their game. Probably the reason why they get many more inside 50's but do little with it. They're so worried about the opposition they forget to take care of their own game.

Horse' language is more balanced and while they say similar thinks he's thinking mainly about how their going to win or what the key is to winning. He uses the words like key and strength. He also says "make sure we bring our strengths", where as Scott says "we just have to make sure". Horse is implying they will, where as Scott is implying they need to.

Have a look at the below article, see if you think there is any language from Knights where there is lacking a positive mindset. I've cut out the bits that could be useful and in regards to correlating performance from week to week.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-09-22/dangerwood-support-cast-stepping-up-for-geelong.mobileapp

"It's going to be a really big game of a collective versus a collective - they're a very strong unit and we pride ourselves on being pretty deep ourselves in the midfield."

"It quite crucial that we do get a good performance out of all players because the reality is 14 or 15 good players just doesn't cut it in a final."

And if my theory is correct and there is correlation, and I add one or two goals for each differential in performance then my model would've only been a couple of goals off. And with favourable umpiring to the Swans, virtually to the exact margin predicted

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