Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[killtaker1993]

West Coast are elite at tanking when they need to. It's why they win flags. There's no way they're giving up Pick 1.

Of course, can't believe I forgot who we are playing.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

West Coast are elite at tanking when they need to. It's why they win flags. There's no way they're giving up Pick 1.

The danger is that Richmond lose to North this week, giving WC a free hit at us

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

Betting odds have after the top 4...

Carlton 1.03
Sydney 1.50
Bulldogs 1.53
St Kilda 1.80
----
Adelaide 2.20
Geelong 2.20
GWS 3.50
Essendon 10

 

[footy4ever]

Don't think we'll make it. Feel like we'll drop one of the last 2 games and can very easily see GWS beating a resting Calrton and Sydney winning at home is quite normal.

Sydney win these sort of games. We're better when we're the hunters, but against Swans we'll be the hunted.

 

[kirky]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

 

[119others]

That 2016 finals series umpiring ride the Dogs had was ridiculous, especially the GWS Prelim and Swans GF.

Reminiscent of the Crows v Hawks 2012 preliminary levels.

Worse even than 2012. Blatant cheating costing Swannies the flag without a shadow of doubt (and I was hoping Swans would lose)

 

[119others]

Sydney win these sort of games. We're better when we're the hunters, but against Swans we'll be the hunted.

Let’s face facts. If we can’t beat Swans in a home game where we are strong faves and have EVERYTHING to play for then…we don’t deserve finals yet

 

[119others]

Part 2: the prospects

Well, you’re thinking. That all sounds simple enough. All the favourites win and vavavoom, we are singing the anthem at the G.

Alternatively you’re wringing your hands. ALL WE NEED IS FOR ONE THING TO WRONG AND MY LADDER PREDICTOR IS RUINED.

I have taken the liberty of compiling all the odds per Sportsbet, running the likelihood of all the different combinations of results, and am pleased to report as follows.

We are about a 40% chance to make the 8 as it stands right now.

If we win our two games we are about a 78% chance to make it.

For the more adventurous among us, we are a 0.3% chance of securing a home final - a sequence of results that would include the Eagles rolling the Dogs this weekend.

Not sure too many were thinking this

 

[Elder van Berlo]

By Jove, I think you’ve got it.

There is a scenario where we could go into the WC game knowing that if we win, we’re either 7 or 8. The Sunday matches will only matter in which one.

Yep I think the only way that happens (assuming the Dogs beat WCE) is if:

Essendon beat GWS
Geelong beat St Kilda
Adelaide beat Sydney
Collingwood beat Essendon
Brisbane beat St Kilda

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

So which of the next 2 eminently winnable games, that we will start clear favourites in, will we lose to miss finals?

This whole season has been stained by inexplicable losses that have undone our progress.

It’s almost giving off a 2015 smell.

Do you mean 2014?

 

[Sanders]

I'm trying to picture Carlton with a fairy tail!

Don’t forget Ninthmond came into finals in 2017 off a 10 game winning streak (or similar) and everyone ignored them until it was too late - just because they were ninthmond

In truth, they were they were the best team in the league for the second half of the season and came rolling into finals

In 2017, which was a very open season without any real stand out teams

Could it happen again? How did it happen then?

If I were Collingwood I wouldn’t be practising any stances

 

[Sanders]

Do you mean 2014?

2016. But 2014 works too

 

[footy4ever]

Let’s face facts. If we can’t beat Swans in a home game where we are strong faves and have EVERYTHING to play for then…we don’t deserve finals yet

Absolutely.

 

[119others]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

I am trying to work out why bookies only have us 10th most fave to make top 8. Clearly biggest issue is we need to beat Swans for starters which is not far off a 50/50 game in all reality. They are coming good and as a GF side last year it wont be a total shock - but will be a massive disappointment - if we dont beat them. But if we cant beat Swans we dont deserve finals anyway as have had enough chances to seal a spot (even with the hardest draw in the comp)

The other issue however that cant be factored accurately into the odds is perhaps the externalities or unintended (or not able to be measured perhaps is better word) consequences of the following:

- If Cats lose this weekend against Saints, they cant possibly make finals based on my ladder predictor. Therefore the final game against Bullies at GMHBA (where Bullies would normally be outsiders) suddenly gets flipped on its head. No real incentive for Cats to win (relative to Bullies who need it to make finals) and in fact with Cats stating the need to rebuild through draft in recent months there is actually a big incentive to lose as you drop a few spots on the ladder (they could end as low as 13/14th even). So ideally I think we want Cats to beat Saints as probably knocks Saints out of finals contention with away game last round vs Lions relatively early in the round (Lions highly incentivised to win for possible top 2)

- The other match that worries me is Dees last game against Swans. If Swans beat them in Sydney they make finals based on my calcs. Not only is this a reasonable outcome in its own right but Dees I believe would prefer to finish 4th (playing home ground vs Pies week one in finals where they knocked them off earlier in the year when the Pies were flying) so just not sure if they will be as fair dinkum in this game (relative to Swans)

I have a nasty feeling that something is going to bugger us up even if we win the last 2 games...but thats life and we have no choice but to move on to 2024
-

 

[Dangarman]

It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%

In the industry we describe that possibility as 'mathematical'.

 

[Billy_01]

This is the sort of game where their midfield reams us and turns Amarty into the second coming of buddy. If that doesn’t happen we’ll make finals.

 

[119others]

Three teams, two spots, game on: We predict the ladder

AFL.com.au reporters have predicted what the ladder will look like at season's end

www.afl.com.au

 

[skam85]

Win both and it's more likely than not that we sneak in. Simple

Pre-season I envisaged a 10-win (ish) season, that would be par and where we are at as a club currently. Offer 10-11 wins to me at the start of the season and I take it and call it a good season.

But having seen how we have played against the best and lost some very winnable games against teams we should not be losing to, I've gotten greedy and expected more - to the point that if we miss it will be a huge blown opportunity to get some critical finals exposure to the playing list.

 

[119others]

Don’t forget Ninthmond came into finals in 2017 off a 10 game winning streak (or similar) and everyone ignored them until it was too late - just because they were ninthmond

In truth, they were they were the best team in the league for the second half of the season and came rolling into finals

In 2017, which was a very open season without any real stand out teams

Could it happen again? How did it happen then?

If I were Collingwood I wouldn’t be practising any stances

Thats not really my recollection or perception. I thought the Crows were clearly the better team during the regular season, certainly relative to Tiges (smashed them by 70-80 points and they had such a joke of a draw which was noted leading into finals that year). It was finals time when Tigers really came good.

Taking a few mins over my morning coffee I just checked the stats, Tigers went 8-3 in the second half of the year. They beat up mostly crappy cellar dwellers (including thumping Freo by 100 points late in the year, and only beat 2 top 8 teams in those 8 wins which were 2-3 goal victories over Power (5th placed end of minor round) and GWS (4th). Also lost to Saints (11th) by 70 ish points in this period.

They had a ridiculously easy draw also playing the 11th, 14th, 16th and 18th teams twice, with only one finalist (GWS) as a double up game. Just shows how distorted our competition is with the double up games materially impacting teams finals prospects (like Crows this year).

Crows had double up games against Cats (2nd), Power (5th), Dons (7th), Dees (9th but equal on games with 7th) and Hawks (12th). And went 7 wins, 3 losses (including the last round meaningless game against Weagles and a 3 point loss in a 'thriller' at home the week earlier against the surging Swans who had won 7 of 8 games) and drew with Mc Governs screamer and goal after the siren vs Pies. We also beat 3 of the top 8 teams by an average of 8 goals in the last half the year.

It was pretty shattering to be there on the last day of September and perform like that though....

 

[MsTopG]

West Coast are elite at tanking when they need to. It's why they win flags. There's no way they're giving up Pick 1.

West coast don't need to tank. We will beat them by 100 plus.

 

[1990crow]

West coast don't need to tank. We will beat them by 100 plus.

Let's hope Tex can narrow the gap by 1 or 2 this round.

 

[MsTopG]

Let's hope Tex can narrow the gap by 1 or 2 this round.

Simmo will be sacked after our game I predict.

 

[Moe Ron]

I'm nervous about the Swans game...I was even before the Brisbane game. Most commentators have it as an 'ellimination game' but with us wining it because it's our home game. I'm not that confident, the Swans are doing some good things at the moment. I think we can win it, but the lads better come out with a very sharp performance...and better goal kicking accuracy

 

[Cuzz09]

Simmo will be sacked after our game I predict.

Should be a good day for all

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[MsTopG]

I'm nervous about the Swans game...I was even before the Brisbane game. Most commentators have it as an 'ellimination game' but with us wining it because it's our home game. I'm not that confident, the Swans are doing some good things at the moment. I think we can win it, but the lads better come out with a very sharp performance...and better goal kicking accuracy

Should be a close game. Both teams have pretty similar percentages. I expect our home advantage should be the deciding factor.