Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[119others]

And from The Age

And then there were 12: Field of contenders shrinks as AFL finals race heats up

The last fortnight of an intriguing AFL season will decide the composition of the top eight, with half of the spots still up for grabs.

www.theage.com.au

And then there were 12: Field of contenders shrinks as AFL finals race heats up​

And then there were 12.

The last fortnight of an intriguing AFL season will decide the composition of the top eight, with half of the spots still up for grabs, although Carlton would find it hard to drop out from here.

Some key round 23 match-ups will not only help figure out who makes the finals, but will go a long way to deciding which team finishes in the top two alongside Collingwood.

 

[rabidcrow]

I have done the ladder predictor quite a few times, and if we beat Sydney we should make it. I tried multiple different scenarios and each one we still finished inside the top 8.

Seems like one of the NSW teams need to lose in the last round? If both win we are done. Is that right?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[PoholkMe10]

Seems like one of the NSW teams need to lose in the last round? If both win we are done. Is that right?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

true only if GWS beat Essendon this week. This is all the scenarios assuming no draws and bulldogs beat Westcoast

 

[119others]

I don't like it. Both Melbourne and Carlton are capable of losing to Half reasonable teams.

Blues on hot streak though.

Ideally Horks pull off another upset vs Dees at The G this Sunday (clearly not faves at 4-1 but have beaten 2 top 8 sides last 2 weeks). That would mean Dees MUST win final minor round game to make top 4 as otherwise unfortunately they may almost have incentive to lose vs Swans at SCG in round 24 to ensure they finish 4th and play Pies at The G in week one of the finals which I imagine is their preference compared to playing Power or Lions away . Thats the real worry here. Dees beat Hawks and then lie down to Swans

 

[119others]

I have done the ladder predictor quite a few times, and if we beat Sydney we should make it. I tried multiple different scenarios and each one we still finished inside the top 8.

I am worried about Swans beating Dees at SCG last round to overtake us. Dees would rather finish 4th than 3rd as will play at home ground week one of finals vs Pies who they beat a few weeks ago

 

[119others]

Interesting bookies dont have us making it - SPORTBET

The betting on Fox Footy has us at $2.25 to make the 8

 

[Geoffa32]

I am worried about Swans beating Dees at SCG last round to overtake us. Dees would rather finish 4th than 3rd as will play at home ground week one of finals vs Pies who they beat a few weeks ago

I am sure the AFL will keep an eye on this to ensure no club will manipulate results on the Final Day.


Of course they will ignore the fact that Melbourne finishing 4th with Collingwood finishing top sets up a blockbuster Final at the G.









On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[119others]

TAB



BLUEBET




BET365

 

[LoBu]

We are a 62% chanceof making the 8 according to this (if we win both games), explaining the betting odds



On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[pjcrows]

A potential snag is St Kilda beating Geelong this week, leaving the Cats with nothing to play for vs Dogs in R24.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Most likely scenario is it coming down to the last round Swans v Melbourne and Carlton v GWS. If both go against we miss, if just 1 of the favourites win, we should be in.

There are other scenarios (ie Essendon and Saints winning out with other results going against) but much less likely.

Just beat the Swans and we can worry about what’s next…

 

[Geoffa32]

A potential snag is St Kilda beating Geelong this week, leaving the Cats with nothing to play for vs Dogs in R24.

St kilda lose their next two, Geelong and Brisbane, and we win our two, we are in.

With no chance of being tipped out on the last day.

This is our best route.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[davos44]

I am worried about Swans beating Dees at SCG last round to overtake us. Dees would rather finish 4th than 3rd as will play at home ground week one of finals vs Pies who they beat a few weeks ago

If they lose week 1 of finals against Collingwood, then they are travelling to the Gabba or AO for a prelim. I would rather play a QF interstate then have 2 weeks at "home".

Plenty of incentive.

It might come down to Essendon vs Collingwood if the pies have top spot sewn up and essendon beat GWS this weekend

 

[Rank]

St kilda lose their next two, Geelong and Brisbane, and we win our two, we are in.

With no chance of being tipped out on the last day.

This is our best route.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Are you sure of that?

 

[footy4ever]

I feel sad already for the team that has to play fairytail Carlton in the first week. It will be umpired like there's only one team on the ground...unless it's Bulldogs, then the umpires will be torn.

 

[BRL121]

I feel sad already for the team that has to play fairy tail Carlton in the first week. It will be umpired like there's only one team on the ground...unless it's Bulldogs, then the umpires will be torn.

I'm trying to picture Carlton with a fairy tail!

 

[Crow-eater]

Win both and make finals.

I'm 90% convinced we will lose to Sydney. Would love to have played them in the first 10 rounds. We have had the toughest draw possible this year.

And yet, if we do make the 8 on %, you bet your bottom dollar there will be select journos having a cry that we played WC twice. Completely discounting the fact we played 1, 2 and 3 twice as well.

 

[119others]

If they lose week 1 of finals against Collingwood, then they are travelling to the Gabba or AO for a prelim. I would rather play a QF interstate then have 2 weeks at "home".

Plenty of incentive.

It might come down to Essendon vs Collingwood if the pies have top spot sewn up and essendon beat GWS this weekend

Yeah it’s a double edged sword isn’t it.

Ultimately though I imagine Dee’s would be better odds winning week one at The G (playing Pies) compared to playing away at Gabba or AO

Also not 100% guaranteed Pies (now looking a little vulnerable) win week one against Power/Lions either so perhaps no home prelim even on offer under thet scenario..

Anyway, let’s just focus on US winning haha

 

[Crow till I die]

And yet, if we do make the 8 on %, you bet your bottom dollar there will be select journos having a cry that we played WC twice. Completely discounting the fact we played 1, 2 and 3 twice as well.

We finished in the bottom 6 last year - we SHOULD be playing WCE etc who were also down the bottom twice..

 

[WetCrow1991]

Brisbane game was must win too

If a lifetime of watching footy has taught me two things:
1. Having to rely on other results never ends well
2. The Crows in ‘must-win’ games are capable of the intolerable. Let alone two ‘must-win’ games in a row

 

[WetCrow1991]

I asked what the phone scammers thought too. Crows to just miss.

TAB

View attachment 1773789

BLUEBET

View attachment 1773791


BET365

View attachment 1773793

 

[WetCrow1991]

Good thing what gambling grifters think has as much impact on the result as anyone here

 

[AmericanCrow]

So our record against teams +/- 1.5 wins on us:

Bulldogs 0-1
GWS 0-2
Essendon 0-1
Geelong 0-1
Richmond 0-1
Fremantle 1-0
Gold Coast 1-1

Overall 2-7

Disgraceful

 

[davos44]

I have the Giants and Saints winning.
St Kilda were very good yesterday and its at Marvel against Geelong
Essendon are just going and the Giants will smash them.
Bulldogs will beat West Coast


Lions to beat the Saints at the Gabba
Geelong will beat the bulldogs at GMHBA
Sydney to beat Melbourne
Carlton to beat GWS

Yeah it’s a double edged sword isn’t it.

Ultimately though I imagine Dee’s would be better odds winning week one at The G (playing Pies) compared to playing away at Gabba or AO

Also not 100% guaranteed Pies (now looking a little vulnerable) win week one against Power/Lions either so perhaps no home prelim even on offer under thet scenario..

Anyway, let’s just focus on US winning haha

Yep, we win and it’s all up to 57 different possible scenarios

 

[Southerntakeover]

If we're seventh to Geelong's sixth, they'll send us to the oblong shit heap won't they?