Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

Will we make finals in 2023?

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Geoffa32 said:
St kilda lose their next two, Geelong and Brisbane, and we win our two, we are in.

With no chance of being tipped out on the last day.

This is our best route.

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Not true at all. If saints lose both we still need one of Sydney or gws/essendon to lose as well. Both sydney and GWS play on the last day, both win we're out.
 

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LoBu said:
We are a 62% chanceof making the 8 according to this (if we win both games), explaining the betting odds

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It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%
 
Drakescoffeecake said:
Don't think we'll make it. Feel like we'll drop one of the last 2 games and can very easily see GWS beating a resting Calrton and Sydney winning at home is quite normal.
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I think we'll make it but wouldn't mind seeing Gold Coast beating Carlton this week, That way Carlton would probably have to beat GWS to ensure a home final.
 
Dirty Bird said:
It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%
Click to expand...
I admire the effort you went to, to go through that for what most of us would have said what a waste of time;)
 

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Dirty Bird said:
It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%
Click to expand...

Are you in isolation and not allowed out?
 
footy4ever said:
I feel sad already for the team that has to play fairytail Carlton in the first week. It will be umpired like there's only one team on the ground...unless it's Bulldogs, then the umpires will be torn.
Click to expand...
That 2016 finals series umpiring ride the Dogs had was ridiculous, especially the GWS Prelim and Swans GF.

Reminiscent of the Crows v Hawks 2012 preliminary levels.
 
Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.
 
Elder van Berlo said:
Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.
Click to expand...
Ok, now I'm dizzy.
 
Elder van Berlo said:
Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.
Click to expand...
Confused Thinking GIF by JK
 
Part 2: the prospects

Well, you’re thinking. That all sounds simple enough. All the favourites win and vavavoom, we are singing the anthem at the G.

Alternatively you’re wringing your hands. ALL WE NEED IS FOR ONE THING TO WRONG AND MY LADDER PREDICTOR IS RUINED.

I have taken the liberty of compiling all the odds per Sportsbet, running the likelihood of all the different combinations of results, and am pleased to report as follows.

We are about a 40% chance to make the 8 as it stands right now.

If we win our two games we are about a 78% chance to make it.

For the more adventurous among us, we are a 0.3% chance of securing a home final - a sequence of results that would include the Eagles rolling the Dogs this weekend.
 
Elder van Berlo said:
Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.
Click to expand...
By Jove, I think you’ve got it.

There is a scenario where we could go into the WC game knowing that if we win, we’re either 7 or 8. The Sunday matches will only matter in which one.
 

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Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

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