Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[PoholkMe10]

St kilda lose their next two, Geelong and Brisbane, and we win our two, we are in.

With no chance of being tipped out on the last day.

This is our best route.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not true at all. If saints lose both we still need one of Sydney or gws/essendon to lose as well. Both sydney and GWS play on the last day, both win we're out.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Don't think we'll make it. Feel like we'll drop one of the last 2 games and can very easily see GWS beating a resting Calrton and Sydney winning at home is quite normal.

 

[baldandbroke]

It’s all over people.

As soon as you are needing to manipulate all of the games to get us into the 8 … it’s like trying to hit an 18-leg multi. No hope!!

 

[Samcro24]

It’s all over people.

As soon as you are needing to manipulate all of the games to get us into the 8 … it’s like trying to hit an 18-leg multi. No hope!!

Not true.

 

[Dirty Bird]

We are a 62% chanceof making the 8 according to this (if we win both games), explaining the betting odds

View attachment 1773817

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%

 

[Rank]

Don't think we'll make it. Feel like we'll drop one of the last 2 games and can very easily see GWS beating a resting Calrton and Sydney winning at home is quite normal.

I think we'll make it but wouldn't mind seeing Gold Coast beating Carlton this week, That way Carlton would probably have to beat GWS to ensure a home final.

 

[beartoo]

If we make the 8 and play Cats 1st up you can bet it will be at the shithole. Sooner be 9th.

On SM-A115F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

If we make the 8 and play Cats 1st up you can bet it will be at the shithole. Sooner be 9th.

On SM-A115F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Surely not with 1/3 of the stadium not ready?

 

[1990crow]

If we make the 8 and play Cats 1st up you can bet it will be at the shithole. Sooner be 9th.

On SM-A115F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I live in Geelong so not the worst result.

 

[Crow till I die]

It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%

I admire the effort you went to, to go through that for what most of us would have said what a waste of time

 

[footy4ever]

I live in Geelong so not the worst result.

Were you Crows, and then shifted to Geelong, or did live in Geelong and get punished as a child by being forced to barrack for the Crows?

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

If we're seventh to Geelong's sixth, they'll send us to the oblong s**t heap won't they?

If we make the 8 and play Cats 1st up you can bet it will be at the shithole. Sooner be 9th.

On SM-A115F using BigFooty.com mobile app

No finals are being played at Goomba Stadium this year when half of it is still dirt. Not even against us.

 

[1990crow]

Were you Crows, and then shifted to Geelong, or did live in Geelong and get punished as a child by being forced to barrack for the Crows?

Moved away from Adelaide about 7 years ago. Found my way to Geelong a couple of years ago.

 

[Geoffa32]

Are you sure of that?

There might be another variable I missed.....

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[kirky]

And yet, if we do make the 8 on %, you bet your bottom dollar there will be select journos having a cry that we played WC twice. Completely discounting the fact we played 1, 2 and 3 twice as well.

As do Carlton, Essendon, Richmond, Fremantle and North Melbourne.

 

[kirky]

It's actually not impossible for Richmond.
Though, it is so unlikely it may as well be.

However, it is NOT impossible.

Lets jump onto the squiggle. Richmond win both games (lets go with 10 goal wins)

Lets give all teams that can't overtake them their wins. Bang, West Coast pick up 2 wins, North Melbourne picks up a win, Hawthorn picks up 2 wins, Gold Coast a win, Fremantle a win, and now that West Coast beat Adelaide, give Adelaide another win.

Now lets go to the other end of the table. Collingwood can have 2 wins, Brisbane can have 1, Same as Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda.

This leaves us with 2 games - Essendon vs GWS and Geelong vs Western Bulldogs. a win would have anyone jump Richmond (Geelong would have superior percentage) - So we need to make both of these games draws. This has Richmond missing by percentage to the Bulldogs.

So we need to manipulate percentages a bit. Lets turn Richmond's 10 goal wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide to 15 goal wins, Still 1.3% shy of the Bulldogs. So lets turn West Coast's 10 goal win over the Bulldogs to 15 goals too.

Cha ching. Richmond's in finals by 0.4%

Are you in isolation and not allowed out?

 

[Klug]

I feel sad already for the team that has to play fairytail Carlton in the first week. It will be umpired like there's only one team on the ground...unless it's Bulldogs, then the umpires will be torn.

That 2016 finals series umpiring ride the Dogs had was ridiculous, especially the GWS Prelim and Swans GF.

Reminiscent of the Crows v Hawks 2012 preliminary levels.

 

[Klug]

If we're seventh to Geelong's sixth, they'll send us to the oblong s**t heap won't they?

No chance.

At the cow paddock it would be low 30s tops.

At the G, would be circa 55k (similar to Dogs Crows crowd in 2015 final).

 

[Elder van Berlo]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

 

[footy4ever]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

Ok, now I'm dizzy.

 

[cleanhands]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

Part 2: the prospects

Well, you’re thinking. That all sounds simple enough. All the favourites win and vavavoom, we are singing the anthem at the G.

Alternatively you’re wringing your hands. ALL WE NEED IS FOR ONE THING TO WRONG AND MY LADDER PREDICTOR IS RUINED.

I have taken the liberty of compiling all the odds per Sportsbet, running the likelihood of all the different combinations of results, and am pleased to report as follows.

We are about a 40% chance to make the 8 as it stands right now.

If we win our two games we are about a 78% chance to make it.

For the more adventurous among us, we are a 0.3% chance of securing a home final - a sequence of results that would include the Eagles rolling the Dogs this weekend.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

By Jove, I think you’ve got it.

There is a scenario where we could go into the WC game knowing that if we win, we’re either 7 or 8. The Sunday matches will only matter in which one.

 

[killtaker1993]

Wouldn't surprise me if the Eagles beat us to honour Nic Nat/Shuey/Bunger Hurn

 

[pjcrows]

Wouldn't surprise me if the Eagles beat us to honour Nic Nat/Shuey/Bunger Hurn

West Coast are elite at tanking when they need to. It's why they win flags. There's no way they're giving up Pick 1.