Review Winners? Losers?

[HairyO]

Surely you admit you should have got more for Lewis?

It would have been nice, but is pick 38 definitely going to be a better player than pick 60?

And once Lewis decided to leave, what would have been the reaction if we knocked back Melbourne's offer?

Hawthorn paid unders for T Mitchell, paid overs for JOM, got unders for S Mitchell and Lewis, and maybe slight unders for Hill. And we probably paid $50k a year more for 2 years for Vickery to guarantee Richmond got the 2nd round compo pick they really were after.

We have bugger all draft picks but did manage to get a solid player, a gun and a potential super gun.

On the assumption that Hawthorn can get JOM back to full health, then I would say we had a very successful trade period.

 

[Dragz]

Yeah I find it strange that the market value between Deledio and Lewis was so great, they were both top 10's in the same draft, Lids is a slightly better and more versatile player but Lewis is much more durable and has had a far better career.

Agreed. However, we probably worked out that Melbourne were sending their 2nd rounder to Essendon* for Hibberd and there wasn't much point being an Ahole to Melbourne and Lewis.

 

[Suma Magic]

Seems like a poor reason to miss out on an elite talent in an area of the ground you desperately need it. As you said, that depth can be found with late picks, the rookie draft, and delisted free agents. You can also find it by trading in fringe players from other clubs for nothing picks. From Hawthorn, some of our best depth over the last few years has been guys like Cheney, Spangher, and Simpkin, who are far, far easier to get than trying to find elite talent without top 5-10 draft picks.



Which players with similar risk/rewards did you have in mind?

Which players cost more at the trade table?

Who cost more than a first, an early second, a mid/late second, a third and a fourth?

Judd did. There are probably others I can't think of them at the moment.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

F W I W

that is going to rebound like a brick wall and attack off half back with their guilt-edged midfield and their polished forward line has to make them premiership favourites next year.

Hawthorn wasn't half as bad as people here are saying....

Why would they by guilty?

 

[eastfreo75]

It would have been nice, but is pick 38 definitely going to be a better player than pick 60?

And once Lewis decided to leave, what would have been the reaction if we knocked back Melbourne's offer?

Hawthorn paid unders for T Mitchell, paid overs for JOM, got unders for S Mitchell and Lewis, and maybe slight unders for Hill. And we probably paid $50k a year more for 2 years for Vickery to guarantee Richmond got the 2nd round compo pick they really were after.

We have bugger all draft picks but did manage to get a solid player, a gun and a potential super gun.

On the assumption that Hawthorn can get JOM back to full health, then I would say we had a very successful trade period.

I think that you have won this year but I think the damage to the Hawks brand will be long term.

The Hawks just got over the line for O'Meara and that shows other potential recruits that the Hawks may not get the trade done.

Also, Mitchell, Lewis and other players took pay cuts to keep the group together. Other players may think twice about taking pay cuts in the future.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Melbourne penalised for it lol

Actually, Melbourne were penalised $500k for not tanking, and then a couple of years the AFL paid the fine themselves.

The AFL at its absolute best

 

[Prudster]

Which players cost more at the trade table?

Who cost more than a first, an early second, a mid/late second, a third and a fourth?

Judd did. There are probably others I can't think of them at the moment.

So when you say...

I was just comparing it to what other clubs have paid for a player with similar risk/reward via trade.

..you actually mean you just listed out the picks we gave, and then when asked who you were comparing the trade with, you suggest Judd, and probably others.. You don't seem to have done any actual comparison there.

Also, i'm not really sure how comparable the Judd trade is. For one thing, Judd was an established gun, and less of a risk in terms of injury and needing to actually develop to reach his potential. But to counter that, pick 3, Josh Kennedy (pick 4), and pick 20 for Judd and pick 46, is significantly more than what we paid for JOM.

Some other names that went for significant assets in the last few years (although i'm not sure any are particularly great comparisons): Treloar, Burgoyne, Dixon, Dangerfield, Carlisle, Beams, and Boyd. There's a pretty big range in the compensation received for those players though, so make of that what you will.

 

[HairyO]

I think that you have won this year but I think the damage to the Hawks brand will be long term.

The Hawks just got over the line for O'Meara and that shows other potential recruits that the Hawks may not get the trade done.

Also, Mitchell, Lewis and other players took pay cuts to keep the group together. Other players may think twice about taking pay cuts in the future.

Mitchell and Lewis didn't take pay cuts. Gibbo Hodge and Burgoyne did. And the reward for staying at the club and not chasing big offers is 4 flags to go with the millions they still earned.

And here is the thing - Lewis turned down huge money from GCS to go to Melb. So again he made a choice.

If you want to see the outcome of the JOM trade watch his interview. He is over the moon.

Other players will see the lengths we go to to get the job done.

 

[Fryman]

You've listed out all those draft picks, but i'd love to hear your thoughts on what kind of players you think those would actually get us. For example, these are the players that have been taken with pick 23 since 2001:

Charlie Gardiner, Tom Lonergan, Matthew Moody, Sean Rusling, Ryan Cook, Paul Stewart, Tayte Pears, David Zaharakis, Koby Stevens, Cameron Guthrie, Murray Newman, Marco Paparone, Matt Crouch, Pat McKenna, David Cunningham

You cant just list players taken at 23, you have to mention every good player taken after pick 22 in the draft.

 

[Prudster]

You cant just list players taken at 23, you have to mention every good player taken after pick 22 in the draft.

You seem to have missed the point, which is that draft picks are a complete crap shoot. You can look at every pick if you like, you'll certainly find good players, but you'll find significantly more duds. The expected return on draft picks that late is incredibly low.

 

[Suma Magic]

So when you say...


..you actually mean you just listed out the picks we gave, and then when asked who you were comparing the trade with, you suggest Judd, and probably others.. You don't seem to have done any actual comparison there.

Also, i'm not really sure how comparable the Judd trade is. For one thing, Judd was an established gun, and less of a risk in terms of injury and needing to actually develop to reach his potential. But to counter that, pick 3, Josh Kennedy (pick 4), and pick 20 for Judd and pick 46, is significantly more than what we paid for JOM.

Some other names that went for significant assets in the last few years (although i'm not sure any are particularly great comparisons): Treloar, Burgoyne, Dixon, Dangerfield, Carlisle, Beams, and Boyd. There's a pretty big range in the compensation received for those players though, so make of that what you will.

How many of those were more expensive?

Beams, Boyd and Treloar might be? But that will depend on what your first pick next year is.

I guess I'm saying that there is only one trade in the last 10 years that is definitely more expensive than the O'Meara trade (from a quick think) - it provides historical context for the price paid by the Hawks this year.

 

[STK2020]

You seem to have missed the point, which is that draft picks are a complete crap shoot. You can look at every pick if you like, you'll certainly find good players, but you'll find significantly more duds. The expected return on draft picks that late is incredibly low.

I think you guys have the runs on the board to take the gamble with JOM.
For what its worth i think 2017 will be Hawthorns last roll of the dice before a rebuild .

 

[STK2020]

Gold Coast were Big winners this year .
Picks 4, 6, 8, 10 and Handley.....Wow !

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

So you missed Terry Wallace admitting this I take it?

It's more accurate to say Terry Wallace didn't implement a Plan B or a Plan C during the match... which is basically what Damien Hardwick has been doing for 7 years and we don't accuse Hardwick of tanking do we!

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

Lol @ people saying hawthorns trade period was a fail lol... If Mitchell and Lewis did an Enright/ Bartel and retired instead our trade period gets an A++. Yet neutrals knock it down because we got nothing for them. I'm curious to know, did all these tradeweekfailhawthorn folk believe we were a chance for the flag if we kept them next year? Because we weren't.

This is the best trade period in memory for hawthorn and will be our greatest influx of talent since the 04 draft. This will be a beautiful bump.

Totally agree. Hawthorn absolutely nailed the trade period, losing a 34 and a 30 year old is no different to Geelong losing a couple of 30+ year olds. The perception of it is warped.

Although to be completely honest, I do think it's pretty funny you guys are paying Tyrone Vickery half a million dollars a year. He's decent, but that really goes against your culture.

Yeah I find it strange that the market value between Deledio and Lewis was so great, they were both top 10's in the same draft, Lids is a slightly better and more versatile player but Lewis is much more durable and has had a far better career.

At the end of the day, Brett Deledio is exactly the type of player a top 4 team would believe could be the difference between winning a flag and missing out. Lewis is more of a great leader that you build around over many years, not the cherry on top to win the match. Deledio's ability to get 4 goals + 20 possessions against a premiership quality opponent (e.g. Hawthorn last year) is a deluxe Italian cream you'll pay top dollar for when you've just missed out on a flag by 2 kicks.

 

[Prudster]

I think you guys have the runs on the board to take the gamble with JOM.
For what its worth i think 2017 will be Hawthorns last roll of the dice before a rebuild .

I don't even see it as that risky necessarily. Rather JOM is just a different kind of risk than draft picks. With JOM, we're likely either getting a star, or an absolute bust because of injuries. With those picks, we're pretty unlikely to get a star on the level of JOM, but are more likely to get one or two solid players, with a much smaller chance of having every pick being a bust.

I think 2017 is somewhat of a write off for us. I can see one of Hodge/Burgoyne/Gibson will go on in 2018, with the other two retiring. Roughy will miss most of 2017, and who knows how he'll go in the back half. If he gets back, i'd suggest he'll have a much bigger influence in 2018. JOM, TMitch, and Vickery will have had a year to settle in. Ceglar will be back. Burton will have his first real preseason in like 2 years, and has huge upside. And who knows what moves we'll make in the 2017 trade period. If we're going to contend in the next few years, i'd say it'd be 2018/19, but that's just my optimistic opinion.

How many of those were more expensive?

Beams, Boyd and Treloar might be? But that will depend on what your first pick next year is.

I guess I'm saying that there is only one trade in the last 10 years that is definitely more expensive than the O'Meara trade (from a quick think) - it provides historical context for the price paid by the Hawks this year.

On what basis do you decide which was more expensive? For example, Carlisle and pick 44 essentially went for pick 5 and Craig Bird (with a few other pieces in there between Sydney and St Kilda). Depending on how you value Bird, and top 5 picks over other first rounders, you could easily rate that trade in many different ways.

Or looking at the Treloar trade, in the end it was two pick 7's with pick 28 going to Collingwood. Seems like significantly more than the JOM trade, but that's in hindsight after Collingwood had a pretty bad year with injuries. Also clouding things is that what GC received could potentially be a lot less than what Hawthorn paid.

All up, i think Hawthorn paid within a reasonable range. The two first rounders we gave up for him and TMitch are the big pieces. The other picks are not insignificant, but i don't think they are worth as much as people are making out. It's ultimately a trade that is going to be super polarising. Either JOM is a bust and we way overpaid, or he works out, and we've got a bargain. The fact is that if hadn't missed two years, he'd probably be the most valuable player in the league (or not far off it). There's no way to accurately judge how much his value drops because of the injuries except in hindsight once he's either made it or failed.

 

[54dreamsalive]

We won pick 18-2-50 will get 3 guns

 

[54dreamsalive]

We won pick 18-2-50 will get 3 guns

26

 

[Old navy]

Gold Coast were Big winners this year .
Picks 4, 6, 8, 10 and Handley.....Wow !

Some big outs over the last two years.
Last year Dixon Bennell and Smith
This year JOM and Prestia.
That's 3 of there best 5 midfielders and 2 of there best 5 KPP's
They are right in the sweet spot for this draft though.

 

[Dez!]

It's more accurate to say Terry Wallace didn't implement a Plan B or a Plan C during the match... which is basically what Damien Hardwick has been doing for 7 years and we don't accuse Hardwick of tanking do we!

There's no accusing though, Wallace admitted to it.

 

[Procrastinator35]

There's no accusing though, Wallace admitted to it.

So did Brock McLean.

 

[STK2020]

Some big outs over the last two years.
Last year Dixon Bennell and Smith
This year JOM and Prestia.
That's 3 of there best 5 midfielders and 2 of there best 5 KPP's
They are right in the sweet spot for this draft though.

I dont think the loss of JOM and Prestia will hurt them . Neither played much footy for them last year and the return of Ablett and Swallow will help .
Dixon and Bennell ......meh !
GC pick ups from 2015 include Rosa , Saad , Forini , Ah Chee , Garlett , Miller .
Add Handley , Lyons picks 4, 6, 8 , 10
I suggest Gold Coast baring injuries are travelling very nicely under the radar.

 

[Dez!]

So did Brock McLean.

No he didn't, he suspected.

 

[Dr Whoooooooo]

I suggest Gold Coast baring injuries are travelling very nicely under the radar.

Interesting you say that .... I can see a huge amount of upside on their list moving forward if the nail this draft.

Funny how things turn out sometimes ... OK their hand was forced on JOM & DP but it could well be exactly what they needed, they were going nowhere with those players and lets not forget Bennell the year before.

 

[Procrastinator35]

No he didn't, he suspected.

Selective memory syndrome.

Demons tanked under Bailey & everyone knows it.