Politics Young people won't embrace progressive politics when they see its failures

[Mofra]

I didn't walk into a 100k job.

My first semi-professional employment was as an intern earning $25k or thereabouts. My wife was pregnant in our graduation pics. My dad advised us against buying property in 2001 because it was overvalued.

We earned this the hard way.

How would I go walking into today's market? The same way.

2001s look like it is far easier than current prices vs incomes.

And earlier, showing the boomers had it much easier in terms of market entry:

Buying a house in the 80s versus today

The average Australian in 1984 could buy a home that cost 3.3 times their annual income. In 2022, it's 10 times the average income.

www.finder.com.au

 

[Mofra]

Australian House Prices: Last 50-Year Retrospective

If you talk to anyone under the age of, say, 50, I don’t think you’d get much of an argument that Australian house prices are completely out of control.

www.savings.com.au

 

[Episode IV]

The main reason home ownership has become more difficult because our economy is a Ponzi that depends on population growth.

That one sentence, in my view, is one of the primary keys to isolating what is "going wrong" and understanding much of the resulting social and economic conflict.

 

[peetoo]

2001s look like it is far easier than current prices vs incomes.

And earlier, showing the boomers had it much easier in terms of market entry:

Buying a house in the 80s versus today

The average Australian in 1984 could buy a home that cost 3.3 times their annual income. In 2022, it's 10 times the average income.

www.finder.com.au

inflation in the seventies was a scourge we needed reaganomics ant Thatcherism to save us from apparently

 

[Leeda]

And why do they need more than they have....bunch of walking..."me and myself"
getting in First...

 

[Leeda]

And what are these "Young uns " protecting themselves against the sins of their parents?

 

[peetoo]

It’s a pity the alternative, the Murdoch political wing, is full of lazy useless drones who find it easier to wedge and run culture wars

 

[Leeda]

Australian House Prices: Last 50-Year Retrospective

If you talk to anyone under the age of, say, 50, I don’t think you’d get much of an argument that Australian house prices are completely out of control.

www.savings.com.au

Your template is stealing my calibration.....stop laughing into your own leather league

 

[kranky al]

Generally, globally, you’re not seeing that change at anything like historical numbers (probably the fact that wealth is so locked in with older generations). The oldest millennials are now in their 40s and there’s more renters among them than at any point in decades.

The whole turning conservative trope has to be mingled with people perceiving that their lives have done well under conservatism.

Lot of people hitting that “sweet spot” feeling violently rogered by it.

Theres a reason they keep kicking on about election fraud and changing voting ages etc. they are becoming unelectable even with the media head start.

 

[Engimal v3]

Young people won't embrace conservative politics once their IQ passes double digits

 

[MC Bad Genius]

I didn't walk into a 100k job.

My first semi-professional employment was as an intern earning $25k or thereabouts. My wife was pregnant in our graduation pics. My dad advised us against buying property in 2001 because it was overvalued.

We earned this the hard way.

How would I go walking into today's market? The same way.

Out if interest, how did you afford to get into the housing market as a 21yo when your first real salary was $25k? Either you had a lot of help from somewhere, or your anecdote has more than a little mayo smeared on top.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Take a look at what's happening in Canada.

Conservatives maintain months-long lead over Liberals, as Canadians' economic anxiety rises: Nanos

"The data shows the Liberals in a distant third place for 18-29 year olds with 15.97 per cent, compared to the Conservatives and the NDP with 39.21 per cent and 30.92 per cent respectively."

See on one level I think you have a point because this is occurring in Europe too. Even here in Australia, the data suggests that young straight men are a lot more conservative than young straight women or young LGBT+ people. I largely blame Andrew Tate and the manosphere for this. But I can find a couple of counterarguments to this too.

1. Canada has turned against the Liberals (a centrist party, not a leftist one, as that honour belongs to the NDP). But the UK has turned heavily against the Conservatives. What do these parties have in common? They're both presiding over a cost of living crisis, and instead of providing any sort of financial relief to average people, they're more interested in neoliberal economic measures like austerity, cutting taxes and expecting the market to self-correct without intervention. That's what I believe people are unhappy with, a real problem where the incumbent is providing an ineffective solution.

The right in both Canada and the UK haven't provided any real alternative economic solution. They just want to double down on neoliberalism. In Canada this is good enough, since the Liberals are unpopular incumbents and the NDP aren't big enough to win government, so the Conservatives are the only real alternative to the status quo. People will embrace that almost by default. The UK Conservatives aren't so lucky because they're the incumbents, so they're getting destroyed in the polls by Starmer, even though he's a centrist himself who hasn't outlined much in the way of concrete change in economic approach.

So I don't believe this is a wide appreciation of the political right because of their ideology, but because people are fed up with the status quo, and people believe there's only one realistic alternative.

2. In Europe, where far-right parties are doing well even in countries that aren't locked into a two-party system, the reasons are a little more complex. Anti-immigrant sentiment is certainly a big factor, but is that the predominant factor for the young, or just the middle-aged and elderly? Well, this article would suggest not:

Why are younger voters flocking to the far right in parts of Europe?

Many young people are not xenophobic but their lives are precarious, say experts, amid crises in housing and healthcare

www.theguardian.com

It says that young people are disgusted with the current government because, of, guess what? Financial insecurity, unaffordable housing and deteriorating education and healthcare thanks to the incumbents practising austerity. Essentially, they are rebelling against neoliberalism, which Geert Wilders has done a good job at separating himself from compared to less successful far-right politicians.

Why aren't they turning left, when proper leftist parties have been against neoliberalism for a while now? (and I don't mean this "centre-left" nonsense practised by Australian Labor, the US Democrats, Canadian Liberals and UK Labour among others, because they're all just neoliberals who are willing to tone down their rhetoric a little on issues like LGBT+ rights.)

Some of the blame certainly lies with the leftist parties themselves, for not being able to market themselves well enough. But that's far from the sole reason. Some of the blame lies with media companies owned by billionaires like Murdoch, who are almost always kinder to the far-right than to the left, because they know that economic policy is usually less important to the far-right than social policy, especially immigration. If push comes to shove, they'll sacrifice LGBT+ people and immigrants to protect their low taxes and regulations, because keeping their fortunes growing is priority #1.

Some of the reason is also in the complexity of the message they're selling. "The status quo is horrible, and current politicians and undeserving hate-filled brown people are to blame" is a more powerful and digestible message than "The status quo is horrible, and current politicians and our unfair, rigged economic system are to blame", because 45 years of neoliberal propaganda throughout the West, encouraged by both the right and the so-called "centre-left", has given people a fear that they'll lose their jobs and what little financial security they do have if there's any fundamental change to the system. Gen Z have grown up in that environment just as much as generations before them have, so they're affected by that mentality too.

It's not easy to fight an election with a complex idea that has connotations of financial uncertainty to the public, compared to a simple idea that taps into some very base, tribal human emotions: people who are not like me are getting a benefit that I'm not getting. That makes people unhappy regardless of how old they are.

 

[peetoo]

Many conservative govts have fully embraced climate action.

 

[evolved2]

Out if interest, how did you afford to get into the housing market as a 21yo when your first real salary was $25k? Either you had a lot of help from somewhere, or your anecdote has more than a little mayo smeared on top.

My gf (now wife) was also an intern on a similar salary, and we bought together.

 

[kranky al]

My gf (now wife) was also an intern on a similar salary, and we bought together.

What year was this?

 

[evolved2]

What year was this?

2001

 

[kranky al]

2001

So before it kicked off.

We were lucky like that too.

 

[faible]

Young people won't embrace conservative politics once their IQ passes double digits

Unless they already own a home and/or are inheriting wealth. Then the status quo is pretty good.

 

[evolved2]

So before it kicked off.

We were lucky like that too.

In hindsight, sure. It didn't feel like that at the time, at least for me. I had a property investor and CEO dad telling me to be cautious.

 

[kranky al]

As the PM does an about-face on the impacts of negative gearing, it’s revealed that one per cent of taxpayers own nearly a quarter of all Aussie investment properties.
Despite being used by less than 1.06 million Australians (or 4.1 per cent of the population) in the latest available data, negative gearing is a hotly debated issue and seen by many as political Kryptonite for governments and oppositions alike.

One of the key battlegrounds of the negative gearing debate over the past seven years has been the mind of now Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. In an appearance on Channel 9’s Today Show in November 2016, the then-Opposition Leader had this to say about the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount:

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“We’re in danger of developing a society where some people are able to buy their sixth, seventh, eighth home, but people trying to get into the market to buy their first home simply aren’t able to.”

Anthony Albanese on Today in 2016. Picture: YouTube

Looking at the data from the ATO, 1 per cent of taxpayers own nearly a quarter of all investment properties across the nation. ATO figures, which cover up until the end of June 2021, revealed that there are almost 20,000 individual property investors who own six or more investment properties. It’s worth noting that this figure does not include investment properties held through various trust and corporate structures.

If we assume very conservatively that each of those individuals owns just six properties, not significantly more, that would mean that this cohort that represents 0.07 per cent of the population owns the equivalent of just under five per cent of total rental stock. For the snapshot taken in June 2021, 41.4 per cent of property investors in this group were negatively geared in aggregate.

In June 2021, the average payable rate on outstanding investor mortgages was 3.22 per cent. As of the latest data from the Reserve Bank, the figure for that metric is now 5.82 per cent, an interest burden 80.7 per cent larger than it was a little under two-and-a-half years ago. For this reason, the number of property investors who are negatively geared is likely to increase significantly in the data for the current financial year.

As of the latest data from the Reserve Bank, the figure for that metric is now 5.82 per cent. Source: RBA
Back to the future

In the present, the Prime Minister now has a very different perspective on negative gearing.

During the second leaders debate for the 2022 election, Albanese triumphantly declared that negative gearing is good.

This remains the policy stance of the Albanese government to this day, despite growing internal pressure within the federal Labor Party urging negative gearing reform.

But who was right about the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese who fervently called for reform or Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who backs both policies?

In order to gain a quantifiable perspective on this question, we’ll be looking at several metrics comparing the challenge faced by those getting into the market in November 2016 – when Albanese made his assertion many first home buyers simply couldn’t get into the market — and today.

There are almost 20,000 individual property investors who own six or more investment properties. Picture: iStock
The repayment burden

Based on the benchmark three-year fixed mortgage rate, which is generally the lowest of benchmark rates across most long term timelines, the repayments on a median priced capital city dwelling with a 30-year mortgage in November 2016 was $26,876 per year or 35.9 per cent of the national median household income.

Based on these same settings, in 2023 the repayments would be $50,154 per year or 52 per cent of the national median household income.

Time to save a deposit

According to data from the ANZ-CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, in 2016 it took approximately 8.7 years for the median household to save for a 20 per cent deposit on a median priced dwelling at a national level.

For the capitals it’s roughly 9.3 years to do the same, and 7.3 years in the regions.

Fast forward to 2023, it now takes 9.8 years to save for a deposit at a national average level, 9.6 years in the capitals and 9.7 years in the regions.

It is worth noting that these figures are from March, prior to a strong bounce in property values that have occurred in the months since.

However, if we go back to 2001, the start of the ANZ-CoreLogic data set for this metric, it took a significantly shorter amount of time to save for a deposit across all the assessed metrics.

In 2001 it took a significantly shorter amount of time to save for a deposit. Source: ANZ-CoreLogic
A shift in urgency

Amid what some are calling the worst rental crisis in living memory, the urgency with which a prospective first-home buyer household wants to purchase a home has also been profoundly transformed.

At the time of Albanese’s appearance on the Today show in November 2016, the national rental vacancy rate was a very healthy 2.6 per cent, one of the highest readings in SQM Research’s more than 18 years’ worth of records.

Meanwhile, asking rents at a national level had grown by just 1.31 per cent in the 12 months prior, reflecting a robust supply of rental properties in aggregate.

Today, things are almost the polar opposite.

The national rental vacancy rate is one per cent and multiple property providers say this is the lowest sustained vacancy rate in the history of their data sets.

As for asking rents for all dwellings nationally, SQM sees them up by 9.2 per cent in the last 12 months and up by 15.2 per cent in the nation’s capital cities.

Rents for all dwellings nationally are up by 9.2 per cent in the last 12 months and 15.2 per cent in the capital cities. Source: SQM Research
These challenging conditions, which have seen even those with full time jobs miss out on rental accommodation and 1600 Australians become homeless each month, has led to a sense of desperation in some quarters to buy a property simply to escape the extremely challenging rental environment.

According to data from research firm Digital Finance Analytics, 14.7 per cent more rental households are planning to buy compared with this same metric in 2016.

In nominal terms, this means there are more than 58,000 rental households out there planning to buy a property at any given time compared with the proportion of renters planning to buy remaining the same as 2016.

While this doesn’t sound like much, in a housing market that saw less than 480,000 properties sell in the last 12 months, this is a significant increase in aggregate demand.

 

[evolved2]

Wrong thread kranky al ?

 

[bzparkes]

The issue is 'progressive' governments are more interested in ongoing culture wars instead of fixing actual issues that matter, such as housing prices, cost of living, etc.

When a government's major campaign policies are geared towards social issues, then it's pretty obvious they either don't have any real idea how to solve actual problems affecting everyday people, or they are distracting you from something else.

 

[peetoo]

The issue is 'progressive' governments are more interested in ongoing culture wars instead of fixing actual issues that matter, such as housing prices, cost of living, etc.

When a government's major campaign policies are geared towards social issues, then it's pretty obvious they either don't have any real idea how to solve actual problems affecting everyday people, or they are distracting you from something else.

Second paragraph applies to all governments. Scomos religious discrimination ring a bell?

First paragraph should apply to all governments too

But it’s only culture wars when the other side do it it seems

 

[bzparkes]

Second paragraph applies to all governments. Scomos religious discrimination ring a bell?

First paragraph should apply to all governments too

But it’s only culture wars when the other side do it it seems

Sure they apply to both.

It's 'progressive' governments that tend to jump onboard whatever the popular cause is though, far more than any other kinds, simply to drum up support and still do nothing about it.

 

[faible]

Sure they apply to both.

It's 'progressive' governments that tend to jump onboard whatever the popular cause is though, far more than any other kinds, simply to drum up support and still do nothing about it.

Meanwhile conservative governments jump on whatever the latest scare campaign is.

The electorate simply isn't going to vote for policies likely to result in genuine change because it's so easy to run scare campaigns to stop that happening.

People get all up in arms about increasing the welfare payment but the tax bracket changes were a-ok.