Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2013 - A Phantom Draft

[Chris25]

Just wondering why your opinion of Harvey seems to have changed so much from this write up, which I realise was done earlier in the year, to the write up you have given him in the Big Footy Phantom, where you seem to be a lot less excited about him and his prospects.

Not a lot has changed really.

I'm still a big fan, I've seen a lot of him this year and he hasn't done anything to turn me away. It's just that with my more recent write up I was looking to give a bit more perspective about his weaknesses and dispel the myth that he is a ready made prospect. All the strengths in that profile you quoted still hold true, I've just become a bit more realistic in terms of his draft range - from second/third round, to third/fourth round.

So I do still rate Mitch Harvey, it's just that he has a long way to go in terms of bridging the gap between the footballer that he is and the athlete that he needs to become.

 

[_RT_]

Not a lot has changed really.

I'm still a big fan, I've seen a lot of him this year and he hasn't done anything to turn me away. It's just that with my more recent write up I was looking to give a bit more perspective about his weaknesses and dispel the myth that he is a ready made prospect. All the strengths in that profile you quoted still hold true, I've just become a bit more realistic in terms of his draft range - from second/third round, to third/fourth round.

So I do still rate Mitch Harvey, it's just that he has a long way to go in terms of bridging the gap between the footballer that he is and the athlete that he needs to become.

Cheers, wish I had of seen the second write up earlier as I selected Harvey at pick 50 on the Tigers board draft and was surprised to see the criticism of the pick, thinking I had got a steal.

Still I would be happy to have the Tigers pick him though as I think that with development he could be a replacement for the likes of Griffiths or Elton or Astbury should they be moved on at the end of next year.

 

[Chris25]

Cheers, wish I had of seen the second write up earlier as I selected Harvey at pick 50 on the Tigers board draft and was surprised to see the criticism of the pick, thinking I had got a steal.

Maybe not a steal, but I would argue a solid pick. Having a look at the reaction to your pick, it seems as though people have done a complete 180 on Harvey - they're now questioning everything, as opposed to blindly believing the hype. He's a good footballer though, I don't have many questions on his actual ability.

No offence to Richmond, but I'd be taking a chance on Harvey above some of the KPPs you already have.

 

[sven_inc]

Mate if you were so inclined, id love your thoughts on Cavarra and Kane Lambert?

 

[_RT_]

Maybe not a steal, but I would argue a solid pick. Having a look at the reaction to your pick, it seems as though people have done a complete 180 on Harvey - they're now questioning everything, as opposed to blindly believing the hype. He's a good footballer though, I don't have many questions on his actual ability.

No offence to Richmond, but I'd be taking a chance on Harvey above some of the KPPs you already have.

Thanks, as I said I see him being a ready to go replacement for the likes of Griffiths Astbury & Elton. Still needs some work before he is AFL ready but given the lack of impact those 3 have had for various reasons I'm preparing for at least 1 perhaps 2 of them to be moved on at the end of 2014 given they are all coming out of contract.

 

[It Just Is]

Hey Chris25, on the back of Port having Sam Baulderstone down for some testing last week, I'd greatly appreciate a bit of a write up on him if you have the time. Also, do you know if he wasn't invited to the state screening or just unable to attend? Thanks mate

 

[eth-dog]

Great work, but I would be pissed if Essendon didn't pick up a ruckman or KPF with their only 2 "live" picks. Especially if we passed on somebody like Harvey at 26. We lack depth in that area

 

[Chris25]

Great work, but I would be pissed if Essendon didn't pick up a ruckman or KPF with their only 2 "live" picks. Especially if we passed on somebody like Harvey at 26. We lack depth in that area

As I always say, I'm no expert when it comes to opposition team lists. But I would have speed, particularly in the forward line as a more pressing need. Plenty of run off half back, but not in the forward half. Plus, I think #26 would be overpaying for someone like a Harvey or Apeness. Maybe one of them, or a Nankervis/Brown, is available at #55.

But otherwise, I'd be more inclined to rookie list a ruckman and KPF (maybe take that chance on Baulderstone this year). And with your two picks in the ND, look at some bolstering the midfield/forward line with some speed and goal scoring ability. Just think there is more value that way.

 

[eth-dog]

As I always say, I'm no expert when it comes to opposition team lists. But I would have speed, particularly in the forward line as a more pressing need. Plenty of run off half back, but not in the forward half. Plus, I think #26 would be overpaying for someone like a Harvey or Apeness. Maybe one of them, or a Nankervis/Brown, is available at #55.

But otherwise, I'd be more inclined to rookie list a ruckman and KPF (maybe take that chance on Baulderstone this year). And with your two picks in the ND, look at some bolstering the midfield/forward line with some speed and goal scoring ability. Just think there is more value that way.

We have pretty good depth in most areas, other than KPF or ruck. Ideally we pick up Marsh if he slips to 26, like a few others have. Essendon have 2 ruckmen on the list, and I guess Daniher or Hooker could be used part time in there

 

[Chris25]

Well the three I have are Dom Sheed, Isaiah Miller and Sam Heavyside. If you have time would appreciate it.
Thank you

Isaiah Miller
187cm, 82kg defender
Bendigo Pioneers​

​

First time I saw Isaiah Miller live was against the Knights right at the start of last season. The Pioneers got destroyed by over 90 points, and Jake Stringer had about 16 shots on goal. Not only was the ball coming in constantly, but there were strong winds and quite heavy rain. It wasn't the best game to be a defender, but Miller still managed to be a standout. He just looked like an AFL footballer in everything that he did.

To be honest, I have no idea why Miller isn't more highly rated than he is. He has performed consistently at TAC Cup level for the last two years, put in some strong showings for Vic Country at the U18 Championships and even played a couple of games in the VFL this year. He finished second in the TAC Cup for rebound 50s despite playing only half the games, and top 5 for the same stat at the Championships. He's done everything asked of him. Miller plays as more of a rebounding tall defender, as opposed to a more defensive role. He is in that Grant Birchall/Andrew Mackie type mould. And in that role, he is just as good as both Scharenberg and Kolodjashnij in my opinion. The biggest difference between the three is that Miller doesn't quite have the same versatility in regards to a midfield and forward game - although he has spent some time up on a wing this year. But he does everything you'd want from that medium defender role though.

Miller is excellent in terms of reading the play. Early on as an underaged player, he would get caught out a bit in his positioning - he would get dragged up the ground, following the ball and forgetting his job. But his teammates kept him in check, and he has made real improvements to that area of his game this season. Now, he is keeping his position and knows when to zone off his man plus taking on leadership roles himself. And when he has the ball in hand, he makes good decisions. Isaiah isn't afraid to take the oppostion on with his run, and despite not being the fastest he manages to keep himself out of trouble. His speed has improved this year, and his agility is quite good - has a nice little sidestep and generally moves well. And with a strong body, he is able to break tackles and fend off when needed. He also keeps running, often getting the one-two and being used as a linkup player through the flanks and wing.

So why is such an impressive rebounder not getting talked up? Especially one with a strong body, with VFL experience. I still don't know, but there are some areas for improvement still. The AIS Academy has certainly helped Miller this year, but I think there is still an extra yard of pace to be had with some more training. His kicking could also be tightened up a bit, makes good decisions but doesn't have the most penetrative kick going around. He does put that bit of touch on his kicks though. Probably the one area that is still to come, is his contested game. You can see it's an area he has been working on, having largely been a loose man in the past. It's not a lack of toughness, just a common theme in the U18s - talented players play largely outside to maximise their impact, whereas the less talented and generally smaller kids are thrown to the wolves and forced to take hits to keep their spot.

I would be taking Isaiah Miller anywhere from around #20 onwards. Think he has the talent and performances on the board to be taken that high. And in terms of an AFL career, I'd be looking at Grant Birchall - they have similar attributes, are of a similar size and athletically they compare quite well.

 

[Footyking123]

Isaiah Miller​

187cm, 82kg defender​

Bendigo Pioneers​

​

First time I saw Isaiah Miller live was against the Knights right at the start of last season. The Pioneers got destroyed by over 90 points, and Jake Stringer had about 16 shots on goal. Not only was the ball coming in constantly, but there were strong winds and quite heavy rain. It wasn't the best game to be a defender, but Miller still managed to be a standout. He just looked like an AFL footballer in everything that he did.

To be honest, I have no idea why Miller isn't more highly rated than he is. He has performed consistently at TAC Cup level for the last two years, put in some strong showings for Vic Country at the U18 Championships and even played a couple of games in the VFL this year. He finished second in the TAC Cup for rebound 50s despite playing only half the games, and top 5 for the same stat at the Championships. He's done everything asked of him. Miller plays as more of a rebounding tall defender, as opposed to a more defensive role. He is in that Grant Birchall/Andrew Mackie type mould. And in that role, he is just as good as both Scharenberg and Kolodjashnij in my opinion. The biggest difference between the three is that Miller doesn't quite have the same versatility in regards to a midfield and forward game - although he has spent some time up on a wing this year. But he does everything you'd want from that medium defender role though.

Miller is excellent in terms of reading the play. Early on as an underaged player, he would get caught out a bit in his positioning - he would get dragged up the ground, following the ball and forgetting his job. But his teammates kept him in check, and he has made real improvements to that area of his game this season. Now, he is keeping his position and knows when to zone off his man plus taking on leadership roles himself. And when he has the ball in hand, he makes good decisions. Isaiah isn't afraid to take the oppostion on with his run, and despite not being the fastest he manages to keep himself out of trouble. His speed has improved this year, and his agility is quite good - has a nice little sidestep and generally moves well. And with a strong body, he is able to break tackles and fend off when needed. He also keeps running, often getting the one-two and being used as a linkup player through the flanks and wing.

So why is such an impressive rebounder not getting talked up? Especially one with a strong body, with VFL experience. I still don't know, but there are some areas for improvement still. The AIS Academy has certainly helped Miller this year, but I think there is still an extra yard of pace to be had with some more training. His kicking could also be tightened up a bit, makes good decisions but doesn't have the most penetrative kick going around. He does put that bit of touch on his kicks though. Probably the one area that is still to come, is his contested game. You can see it's an area he has been working on, having largely been a loose man in the past. It's not a lack of toughness, just a common theme in the U18s - talented players play largely outside to maximise their impact, whereas the less talented and generally smaller kids are thrown to the wolves and forced to take hits to keep their spot.

I would be taking Isaiah Miller anywhere from around #20 onwards. Think he has the talent and performances on the board to be taken that high. And in terms of an AFL career, I'd be looking at Grant Birchall - they have similar attributes, are of a similar size and athletically they compare quite well.

Thanks for that good read

 

[BracedMantis05]

just having a look on the bit about the 2014 prospects, is there any insight you can give on Billy Stretch or angus brayshaw

 

[Richo83]

Maybe not a steal, but I would argue a solid pick. Having a look at the reaction to your pick, it seems as though people have done a complete 180 on Harvey - they're now questioning everything, as opposed to blindly believing the hype. He's a good footballer though, I don't have many questions on his actual ability.

No offence to Richmond, but I'd be taking a chance on Harvey above some of the KPPs you already have.

Pretty much all of Richmond's KPPs have either made it or haven't played yet. That said, I see Harvey as mainly a KPF prospect, and I like McBean a lot more than Harvey.

 

[hawker39]

Chris25,

Looking ahead to the Hawks Pick 24 - Perhaps details on Dumont or Jones or Dunstan

 

[Tex200]

Chris25, thanks for your efforts, great reading.

Any info/thoughts you have on Karpany from the Eagles in SA?

Thanks

 

[Super Hans]

I can't see any reason at all that we are probably going to pass on Aish for Bontempelli, can you make sense of it for me? I just cannot understand why we're leaning that way.

Is it just recruiters trying to be fancy instead of taking the obvious pick?

 

[Chris25]

I'm hoping to have some free time in the three days leading up to the draft, so hopefully can get out a few more player profiles then.

I can't see any reason at all that we are probably going to pass on Aish for Bontempelli, can you make sense of it for me? I just cannot understand why we're leaning that way.

Is it just recruiters trying to be fancy instead of taking the obvious pick?

I would imagine a large part is the whole Victorian vs South Australian thing, and perhaps they don't think the gap between Aish and Bontempelli is big enough to warrant the homesickness risk (not that I'm saying there is one with Aish). For example, if you grade an interstate player at an A- and the local player a B+ then who do you take?

Or maybe they actually rate Bontempelli higher? He does offer a lot of things - size, versatility, scope for improvement. I've always rated him very highly, but for the Bulldogs I'd be taking Aish. Especially after drafting both Macrae and Stringer last year, who ideally will play very similar roles to Bontempelli - an inside/outside midfielder and a midfielder/forward. Yes, all three together would be nice and you could rotate them at will. But partnering an elite clearance winner like Liberatore with an elite outside ball user in Aish would be see a bigger improvement than improving rotations.

 

[Chris25]

Chris25, thanks for your efforts, great reading.

Any info/thoughts you have on Karpany from the Eagles in SA?

Thanks

I'll look to do a more detailed write up soon, but I have him anywhere from the second round to the fourth round. Don't think he is a guaranteed top 30 pick as some recent articles are suggesting. Personally, I rate Dwayne Wilson higher and also have Orazio Fantasia at around the same level as Karpany.

I actually have him in the same boat as Kennedy-Harris, excellent skills and he has the performances on the board, but I just don't see him being a full time midfielder at the top level - small frame, more an outside receiver. Karpany does have a good forward game which is a big positive, but he is primarily a midfielder. Someone will fall in love with his skills though.

 

[Super Hans]

I'm hoping to have some free time in the three days leading up to the draft, so hopefully can get out a few more player profiles then.



I would imagine a large part is the whole Victorian vs South Australian thing, and perhaps they don't think the gap between Aish and Bontempelli is big enough to warrant the homesickness risk (not that I'm saying there is one with Aish). For example, if you grade an interstate player at an A- and the local player a B+ then who do you take?

Or maybe they actually rate Bontempelli higher? He does offer a lot of things - size, versatility, scope for improvement. I've always rated him very highly, but for the Bulldogs I'd be taking Aish. Especially after drafting both Macrae and Stringer last year, who ideally will play very similar roles to Bontempelli - an inside/outside midfielder and a midfielder/forward. Yes, all three together would be nice and you could rotate them at will. But partnering an elite clearance winner like Liberatore with an elite outside ball user in Aish would be see a bigger improvement than improving rotations.

Hmmmm, interesting that you mention Bontempelli with Stringer and Macrae as similar players.

Going off their draft years, where would you rank those three amongst each other?

 

[Chris25]

Hmmmm, interesting that you mention Bontempelli with Stringer and Macrae as similar players.

Going off their draft years, where would you rank those three amongst each other?

I think they're similar in a lot of ways. All three are around the 190cm mark, give or take an inch. And they're all multifaceted in their games. The way I see it, Bontempelli is almost a mix of the two. Since you've already got the parts, do you need him?

And just as a side note, I see the HeraldSun did Bontempelli's profile today - comparing him to Scott Pendlebury. Any guesses on who they compared Macrae to last year? It seems any tall midfielder gets the same comparison.

Oh, and I'd rate them Stringer, Bontempelli and then Macrae. I'm an unashamed Stringer fan though.

 

[Footyking123]

I think they're similar in a lot of ways. All three are around the 190cm mark, give or take an inch. And they're all multifaceted in their games. The way I see it, Bontempelli is almost a mix of the two. Since you've already got the parts, do you need him?

And just as a side note, I see the HeraldSun did Bontempelli's profile today - comparing him to Scott Pendlebury. Any guesses on who they compared Macrae to last year? It seems any tall midfielder gets the same comparison.

Oh, and I'd rate them Stringer, Bontempelli and then Macrae. I'm an unashamed Stringer fan though.

Stringer will be the best out of his draft

 

[Tex200]

I'll look to do a more detailed write up soon, but I have him anywhere from the second round to the fourth round. Don't think he is a guaranteed top 30 pick as some recent articles are suggesting. Personally, I rate Dwayne Wilson higher and also have Orazio Fantasia at around the same level as Karpany.

I actually have him in the same boat as Kennedy-Harris, excellent skills and he has the performances on the board, but I just don't see him being a full time midfielder at the top level - small frame, more an outside receiver. Karpany does have a good forward game which is a big positive, but he is primarily a midfielder. Someone will fall in love with his skills though.

Just on Dwayne Wilson - would you know if he happens to be any relation to Wilbur Wilson - a famous SANFL player for Centrals back in the 70's. body shape and style is very similar

 

[santa claws]

Maybe not a steal, but I would argue a solid pick. Having a look at the reaction to your pick, it seems as though people have done a complete 180 on Harvey - they're now questioning everything, as opposed to blindly believing the hype. He's a good footballer though, I don't have many questions on his actual ability.

No offence to Richmond, but I'd be taking a chance on Harvey above some of the KPPs you already have.

cant help but agree there.
for richmond we may have barely adequate tall numbers but the likelyhood of most of them making it is poor. most tiger supporters disagree with me but the need for genuine kpfs and kpds is severe. the lack of quality in numbers is staggering.we also need a decent succession plan in place right now for a real/genuine front line ruckman.

finally what are the chances scharenberg could slip to us at 12. really really like this player. if hes not there would like us to target acres followed by sheed.

 

[Chris25]

I reckon I have one more update in me before the draft. It will be even more a reflection of my own personal rankings, instead of trying to blend that and predictions into one draft. So expect a few changes. Like what? Well, George Hewett wont be quite as low for one. And Patrick Cripps will be dropping quite a bit.

What I'll do, is also include my predicted first round. Speaking of which, how is my first round looking at the moment...?

1. GWS - Tom Boyd
2. GWS - Josh Kelly
3. St Kilda - Jack Billings
4. Western Bulldogs - James Aish
5. Gold Coast - Kade Kolodjashnij
6. Collingwood - Marcus Bontempelli
7. Brisbane - Dom Sheed
8. North Melbourne - Luke McDonald
9. Melbourne - Nathan Freeman
10. Collingwood - Matthew Scharenberg
11. West Coast - Blake Acres
12. Richmond - Christian Salem
13. Carlton - Luke Dunstan
14. GWS - Ben Lennon
15. Sydney - Rory Lobb
16. Geelong - Zak Jones
17. Fremantle - Cameron McCarthy
18. St Kilda - Billy Hartung
19. St Kilda - Trent Dumont
20. Gold Coast - Lewis Taylor

Just on Dwayne Wilson - would you know if he happens to be any relation to Wilbur Wilson - a famous SANFL player for Centrals back in the 70's. body shape and style is very similar

Not sure, I'd say probably not. He is a cousin of Danyle Pearce, but don't know about any connection to old Wilbur.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I reckon I have one more update in me before the draft. It will be even more a reflection of my own personal rankings, instead of trying to blend that and predictions into one draft. So expect a few changes. Like what? Well, George Hewett wont be quite as low for one. And Patrick Cripps will be dropping quite a bit.

What I'll do, is also include my predicted first round. Speaking of which, how is my first round looking at the moment...?

1. GWS - Tom Boyd
2. GWS - Josh Kelly
3. St Kilda - Jack Billings
4. Western Bulldogs - James Aish
5. Gold Coast - Kade Kolodjashnij
6. Collingwood - Marcus Bontempelli
7. Brisbane - Dom Sheed
8. North Melbourne - Luke McDonald
9. Melbourne - Nathan Freeman
10. Collingwood - Matthew Scharenberg
11. West Coast - Blake Acres
12. Richmond - Christian Salem
13. Carlton - Luke Dunstan
14. GWS - Ben Lennon
15. Sydney - Rory Lobb
16. Geelong - Zak Jones
17. Fremantle - Cameron McCarthy
18. St Kilda - Billy Hartung
19. St Kilda - Trent Dumont
20. Gold Coast - Lewis Taylor

No because you knocked off almost every guy I was looking at for Port at pick 21 .

Just out of curiosity, pick 21 - sticking with Crouch?