Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

[Final Siren]

Post-Grand Final update! The best tipsters by club!

Updated 29 March 2012! Now with 357 ladders, and team snapshots for North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, Carlton, GWS, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St. Kilda, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Essendon, and Gold Coast.

Every year, people try to predict the ladder for the following year. Here is the thread for 2012:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=878281 (Part 1)
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=894794 (Part 2)

I have run these ladders through a statistical analysis, so now I can bring you...

THE CONSOLIDATED BIGFOOTY 2012 LADDER

Here's what you get if you combine the 300 ladders from that thread into one:

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Geelong
4. Carlton
5. West Coast
6. Fremantle
7. Sydney
8. North Melbourne
9. Essendon
10. St. Kilda
11. Richmond
12. Melbourne
13. Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. Greater Western Sydney

Surest Bets
These teams exhibit the smallest statistical variation in predictions, which means people agreed most often about where they are likely to finish:

1. Greater Western Sydney (average prediction: 17th - 18th)
2. Hawthorn (1st - 3rd)
3. Port Adelaide (15th - 18th)
4. Collingwood (1st - 4th)
5. Gold Coast (14th - 17th)
6. Carlton (2nd - 5th)
7. West Coast (4th - 7th)
8. Geelong (2nd - 5th)
9. Western Bulldogs (11th - 16th)

Unknown Quantities
These teams exhibit large statistical variations in their predicted finishing position, meaning there is a lot of disagreement about how they will go in 2012:

1. St. Kilda (average prediction: 7th - 14th)
2. Fremantle (4th - 9th)
3. Essendon (7th - 12th)
4. Adelaide (10th - 15th)
5. Melbourne (9th - 14th)
6. Richmond (8th - 13th)
7. Sydney (5th - 10th)
8. Brisbane (11th - 16th)
9. North Melbourne (6th - 11th)

Do Supporters Over-Rate Their Own Team?
Yes! Supporters of all 18 teams on average predict their own team to finish higher than the rest of BigFooty does.

Who Are The Most Optimistic/Delusional?
We don't actually know yet where teams will finish on the ladder in 2012, so a team's supporters may be right when they predict that their team is better than everyone thinks. But not everyone can be right! So someone must be deluding themselves.

Ranked from most disproportionately optimistic supporters to most disproportionately pessimistic (based on number of standard deviations away from the average):

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Gold Coast
3. Port Adelaide
4. North Melbourne
5. St. Kilda
6. Melbourne
7. Sydney
8. Richmond
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Adelaide
11. Fremantle
12. Essendon
13. Hawthorn
14. Collingwood
15. West Coast
16. Geelong
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

Note that even Carlton & Brisbane supporters expect their team to do better than in 2012 than BigFooty does. But Carlton & Brisbane supporters only expect their team to finish about half a rung higher on average than the rest of BigFooty, which is very modest, while Port Adelaide supporters expect to finish two rungs higher, and Greater Western Sydney supporters are tipping three rungs higher than everyone else.

(Stats talk: this rank is actually derived from the difference in average ladder position as measured by standard deviations. For example, St. Kilda's average rank is 10.5 with a very high standard deviation of 3.36, because people have ranked it all over the place. St. Kilda supporters rank themselves 6.4 on average, a whole four rungs higher than BigFooty. Greater Western Sydney supporters rank themselves only three rungs better (average ranking of 14.8 vs 17.8), but because BigFooty is near-unanimous that they're going to finish bottom, that's against a much lower standard deviation of 1.02. GWS are therefore 3.0 standard deviations more optimistic about themselves while St. Kilda are only 1.2 standard deviations more optimistic.)

Edit: Updated 6-Dec-11. Increased data sample from 137 to 300 ladders. Ladder differences: Richmond & St Kilda swap places at 10th & 11th. Brisbane & Western Bulldogs swap places at 14th & 15th.

Edit: 16-Jul-12. Fixed links to team snapshots, which were broken by forum upgrade.

 

[kriso182]

Nice one mate. Can I ask how long this took?

I would really love to see a West Coast vs Fremantle final next year.

 

[mHmmm]

Now this was quite interesting. Kudos for putting it together.

 

[The Goon]

Quality work Final Siren. Good to see an actually new idea.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Top thread.

I do wonder what it is exactly that has all those St Kilda supporters feeling so optimistic.

 

[muttweed]

I think Brisbane will make finals next year. Their players have piles of potential, they will be huge in coming years.

 

[Hipster Doofus]

Quality thread

 

[The Speaker]

I think the biggest story out of this thread is that neither Carlton nor Essendon supporters are delusional.

 

[September_Glory]

Very nice work, mate.

Total number of 'predicted ladders' used?

 

[EBUS]

Interesting to see Carlton 17th in optimism, everyone says how we overrate ourselves.

 

[reg_lower91]

is it just me or does that ladder actually seem pretty spot on?

 

[CrimsonRaven]

When your already close to the top of the ladder your standard diviation would be much less. Considering Carlton finished fith, its not hard to see why Carlton fans wouldnt see their club going to much higher, 4 places at the most 1 at the least.

Clubs lower on the ladder have a whole 17 spots to try ad put their team into haha.

Also with clubs lower on the ladder 'overrating' their list, its probably got a lot to do with supporters of the clubs knowing a lot about their own players but not a lot oabout their opposition.

Most clubs would be in full propaganda mode at the moment, seeing as there are no games to dispute the view that everything is going excellenty.

 

[lusheslewis]

THE CONSOLIDATED BIGFOOTY 2012 LADDER

Something here doesn't seem right. If the Bigfooty "consensus" (I use that term loosely) is that Hawthorn will finish 1st, then surely they should be last on the "most optimistic" supporters list.

I can only think of two explanations:

1. Hawthorn supporters are predicting their team to finish above 1st.
2. A disproportionate amount of Hawthorns supporters posted in the thread predicting them to come first, thus skewing the average.

Could you do the analysis again but this time disregarding where a person thinks their own team will finish? Could you also post the stats of how many supporters of each team posted predictions?

 

[Plugger35]

Top thread.

I do wonder what it is exactly that has all those St Kilda supporters feeling so optimistic.

Probably the fact we've made finals in 7 of the past 8 seasons with 5 seasons in the top 4 and we still finished 6th last season despite missing our best midfielder Hayes for most of the season and having a nightmare start.

I'd be very suprised if the likes of Essendon, Richmond and North finished ahead of us next year. We smashed North by 65 points last time we played them so why would they finish 3 spots ahead of us on the ladder?

 

[MadBomberman]

Probably the fact we've made finals in 7 of the past 8 seasons with 5 seasons in the top 4 and we still finished 6th last season despite missing our best midfielder Hayes for most of the season and having a nightmare start.

I'd be very suprised if the likes of Essendon, Richmond and North finished ahead of us next year. We smashed North by 65 points last time we played them so why would they finish 3 spots ahead of us on the ladder?

We smashed you guys by 52 points yet still finished below you guys. In fact, you guys haven't beaten us since early 2009 and we still somehow managed to finish below you guys in each of those years.


7th-10th is where I would expect Essendon. Probably leaning on 8th as our spot again.

 

[Stratton_Gun]

I'd take that

 

[Lord Nicholson]

We smashed North by 65 points last time we played them so why would they finish 3 spots ahead of us on the ladder?

Melbourne beat Freo by around about 100 points.

But Freo finished two spots ahead! What sorcery is this!?

The Bulldogs beat Carlton by 30-odd points.

But Carlton finished 5 spots ahead of them on the ladder! Surely football is broken because of these strange happenings?

Adelaide defeated Hawthorn... but finishes Hawthorn 11 spots above them? Mass confusion!

I have heard tell that Gold Coast actually beat Richmond. How come the Suns got the wooden spoon then? A conundrum, to be sure.

I'll investigate this for you, 'cause it's got me beat.

 

[The Goon]

Melbourne beat Freo by around about 100 points.

But Freo finished two spots ahead! What sorcery is this!?

The Bulldogs beat Carlton by 30-odd points.

But Carlton finished 5 spots ahead of them on the ladder! Surely football is broken because of these strange happenings?

Adelaide defeated Hawthorn... but finishes Hawthorn 11 spots above them? Mass confusion!

I have heard tell that Gold Coast actually beat Richmond. How come the Suns got the wooden spoon then? A conundrum, to be sure.

I'll investigate this for you, 'cause it's got me beat.

I'm pretty sure that's just a myth put forth by scurrilous types.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Fair amount of effort put into that post. Good stuff.

 

[shintemaster]

Interesting thread. Probably needs more commentry on North going to the Gold Coast to play the Anzac Day game though.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

I'm pretty sure that's just a myth put forth by scurrilous types.

Aye, must be.

Could be the reason for all those other aberrations, too.

 

[Richo83]

Great thread. Now I realise the op isn't commenting on the legitimacy of the ladder, just the nature, but IMO that ladder looks way too close to the 2011 ladder, and as well all know, each year is always different to the last. Something will change, a bottom eight team will move into the top four which happens regularly. That ladder assumes that bar say Fremantle and Essendon, the bottom and top eight stay the same.

Secondly, GWS fans, 12th? Seriously? If the suns couldn't get off the bottom with Ablett, then GWS aren't getting off the bottom with Scully.

 

[Plugger35]

Melbourne beat Freo by around about 100 points.

But Freo finished two spots ahead! What sorcery is this!?

The Bulldogs beat Carlton by 30-odd points.

But Carlton finished 5 spots ahead of them on the ladder! Surely football is broken because of these strange happenings?

Adelaide defeated Hawthorn... but finishes Hawthorn 11 spots above them? Mass confusion!

I have heard tell that Gold Coast actually beat Richmond. How come the Suns got the wooden spoon then? A conundrum, to be sure.

I'll investigate this for you, 'cause it's got me beat.

Yes well done, of course there will always be teams beating other teams above them on the ladder but the fact is we have been a much stronger and better performed team than North in recent years so I'm not sure why so many people would think they will finish ahead of us on the ladder next year.

 

[Chism]

Excellent Thread Final Siren.

Stuck.

 

[Reckoner Tiger]

Top thread.

I do wonder what it is exactly that has all those St Kilda supporters feeling so optimistic.

The fact that they've basically lost nothing from their Grand Final sides, player-wise.

The fact that they had an off-season from hell in 2010.

The fact that they were experiencing GF loss misery this year coupled with uninspired, stagnant coaching.

The fact that they had just about all of their stars underperform.

The fact that they were missing arguably their best player for all but two rounds.

The fact that despite all of this, they finished not bottom 4, not even outside the 8, but 6th.


Speaks volumes in my book and anyone writing off the Saints IMO just isn't looking at the facts.