Autopsy Round 6, 2024: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

[Diehard Saint]

Owens - but why don't they use him

$64 million question.

 

[Mat Mann]

His talent overlaps with what we already have, without addressing what we are lacking.
INSIDE mids.

we lack mids in all depts though

 

[SaintsSeptember]

we lack mids in all depts though

Nah, we've got the Byrenes, Henrey, Ross, etc...
We don't have the jamie Cripps.

 

[Drop Kick]

It’s been the perfect storm of negative s to begin this season when you think about it .

Game style was built to defend without the ball then spread with it .
Yet 2 games at freaky narrow grounds
Injuries to the best thing that’s happened to this list in Henry and another runner Wood .
2 x 5 day breaks and interstate games all over the place .

Bleeding games into Bonner but now realizing he’s not a defender at all , and because Webster had a brain fade and a record suspension.

Suspensions to king ( prob cost us that game ) and others for SFA.

Injuries to midfield extractors in crouch , Clark and Dow . Therefore midfield is still barely functioning.

Mitch owens lacking confidence or the ability to kick for goal . Repeat King ,higgins. No butler.

I’m surprised we ve won a game to be honest . Reverse all of the above or even a few of them and we’d be way better off . If we can get to 5/5 after games to hawks , Roos then freo at Marvel we could turn things around .

And Owens showing he'd struggle to beat Cordy in a 100 meter dash, can't the club work on his running ability, it's a real weakness.

 

[akaifu]

He's not overly contested, and given that Henry tracks ok, do we need another, anti-social version?

Sorry but Tarryn and Henry are nowhere near similar players. Tarryn a lot more inside and hybrid mid, while Henry is a pure outside player atm

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

He's not overly contested, and given that Henry tracks ok, do we need another, anti-social version?

very different players

Are we filled with so much talent we can turn our noses up at a blue chip talent (who has massive personal tissues) that is free to a good home?

no flipping thank you

 

[Saintbloke]

Owens - but why don't they use him

Because Owens is not a natural midfielder- he is tough and takes a good mark, but hasn't got the leg speed, especially over a short burst. He should be tried at CHB or somewhere in the back half.

 

[pebblesofsand]

We aren’t a contender. Which means we need to add to get there. With a huge need for an inside mid. Key back. Ruck/forward.

Our current draft assets for 2024:

Stkilda first round pick
Adelaide second round pick
Melbourne third rounder
A 4th rounder.

So based on your thinking we are 2-6 picks short of replacing the players we exit.

That then means we need to trade players for picks.

Looking at the out of contract list of players who may be desirable at other clubs:

Howard
Butler
Sharman
Membrey ?
Paton
Jones ?


All would then leave a hole for us and none bar Howard at a reach would give us a decent pick.

You could even say Hunter Clark. But still we are talking a second rounder at best. (Assuming after what seems like 4 injury interrupted seasons he wants a fresh start)

The plus for us is that we have mammoth cap space. So, could we buy a pick?

Looking at what’s still available in terms of OOC:

Bailey smith (apparently Collingwood)

Hugh McCluggage (Gun, can’t see him leaving - would be 27 round 1 25’)

Max Holmes (Perfect fit, would he leave a side looking at playing finals again)

Ollie florent (just can’t see what issues he fixes for us)

Tarryn Thomas (ticks all boxes for needs. Personality is a huge cross)

Other names we could try for that wouldn’t move the needle:
Jordan Berry
Liam Duggan
Ned Moyle

If our season looks shot by the bye. A blooding of whatever youth we have left should be the priority with an eye on the best pick possible.

As it then opens up the possibility of pick splitting to acquire more talent.

But what is clearly evident is that we are going to have to cut hard to go to the draft again in a meaningful way. Otherwise we tread water hoping for further internal development.

Doubt that any on that list (other than Howard) would net us a pick.

But lets say we snag a couple of extra late picks for players, that gives us 6 draft picks to be used how ever (4 draft picks and a couple of trades???), then sign a delisted free agent as "depth" then a hold over list spot for an SSP spot and there's your turnover of 8 players.

The issue is then how do find quality from existing players who may be available from other clubs.

Of your list I'd be looking closely at Thomas (simply because his current standing makes him more gettable for a non powerful club like St Kilda - aka De Goey factor)

We've been looking for a young ruckman for about three years so I'd expect they'd have a look at Moyle.

But back to the original point of "rebuilding" - unless we are trading out existing high end talent for high draft picks, the above is pretty much the normal process for most clubs.

Buying a pick is an interesting concept and I wonder how much it would cost. Geelong paid $800K??? for Pick 7 and a player who seems to be starting 22 for them. So without the player maybe $1M+ for a Top 10 pick?

 

[Saintbloke]

A lot of deficiencies in our list, and Lyon has polished the turd as much as he can and seems out of tricks now. We presume Dow will solve midfield issues, but it is not guaranteed and we badly need class in there, and have for quite a few years. Need more height in the back half, and need more speed and goal kicking in the forward half. Need a good athletic ruckman, as Heath looks like he hasn't got the goods. Clearly we miss Henry, and it would be good to get more senior games into Collard, maybe at the expense of Pou or Sharman.

 

[Cairnsman]

Your average AFL fan wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally, fair dinkum! I mean it doesn't surprise me there are fans turning on Ross but still baffling none the less.

Kept referring to RLs magic wand when he returned, which was my way of saying doesn't matter who the coach is or how marvellous he is, coaches can't turn water into wine. Yet ever since his return there has been a Trump-like delusion that Ross has discovered the magic trick that turns every recruit into GF quality player.

Ross had a 33% win ratio in his last 4 years at Freo but the Trump brigade didn't want to go there. Now I'm not knocking Ross, far from it, I'm making the point about talent acquisition and how bloody hard it is, especially at a poor club like ours, also see point about magic wand.

Although Ross seemed like a magican when he had talent ladened lists, but just like Clarko, he doesn't look like much chop without a once in a generation star team.

Just madness to point the bone at Ross at this point. Let's wait until he atleast gets access to his full list and some game continuity and then maybe we have the coach conversation if things look poor.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Seems like we are relying too much on the older brigade to set an example. We miss 30yo's in Wood and Crouch, and probably our best performer against the Dogs was another old campaigner in Hill in his 30s. Somehow we have a big gap in the middle rung age group who can influence games. Windy, Owen, Pou, Caminiti and Garcia are inexperienced and not consistent, though I think Pou is not up to it at the moment- Garcia seems to show the most promise.
I don't think Lyon is any better at developing a team than a lot of other coaches or would-be coaches, and as a long term Saint supporter, I've gone though the same old rebuild, develop, premiership window blah blah that the club has fed us for decades. We need a good dose of luck more than anything.

That gap is Clark, Dow Henry. All injured
Steele had a mare. Looked like he was running in mud the whole night.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Sharman needs space to operate in the F50, which with our current set up he rarely has. Thats not his fault most talls would be the same, but I cant see him improving in the current team. He is being flicked around because his form in the F50 has been non existent, thats a coach trying to get a player into the game.

I think Coops is just being used to fill holes atm and is getting the raw end. We'll see what they do when Wood gets back.

 

[bergholt]

Buying a pick is an interesting concept and I wonder how much it would cost. Geelong paid $800K??? for Pick 7 and a player who seems to be starting 22 for them. So without the player maybe $1M+ for a Top 10 pick?

Maybe but it’s not arbitrary dollars, it’s dollars attached to an actual player. Which player out there is on a big contract but is surplus to needs at his club?

 

[ScrappyDo]

There is other issues in his game as well.

Watching him on Thursday night and his footy smarts when it came to defending Bulldogs rebounds was non-existent. He was just running around in circles and had no idea where to go. Can put it down to two things. Either he can't do it or can't be f***ed.

Now this also comes down to leadership in the forward line, which is non-existent. Players like Butler, Owens aren't too much better at the moment. Strangely, Higgins has improved out of sight in this area. But Sharman and Butler aren't offering anything attacking wise either. Higgins is and Owens has been okay in this area.

All this translates to the ball coming out of the forward line too easily and our mids, defence under pressure.

Also, Sharman is hardly ever going to get space in the forward 50. But you look at similar sized forwards such Bailey Fritsch and Kyle Langford (who we dream Sharman becomes like), and they are constantly leading and presenting to the ball regardless of space available. I can't recall Sharman taking a mark on the lead inside 50 this season. It's probably happened but I can't recall it. All he wants to do is to jump into packs from the side and mark....or try to take a hanger.

With Sharman it's one of two cases, either he just doesn't have what it takes or he isn't working hard enough.

I hope it's the second case but I feel the first is more likely at this stage.

All of Sharman, King and Membrey are very good on the lead, the problem is they're not doing it.
I think half the issue it the RTB high press just isn't allowing space. Our defence is too weak atm which sucks the rest into the defensive half/50. Without any express pace smalls to worry about the oppo defenders have an easy lunch. IMHO we can't have NWM and Bonner playing in the same zone. Probably add Hill and Sharman to that as well. They are all good to excellent when given space poor to terrible in contested situations. We need our contested players back. Can't expect the greyhounds to win us a dog fight each week.

 

[gringo2011]

That gap is Clark, Dow Henry. All injured
Steele had a mare. Looked like he was running in mud the whole night.

Clark is more likely to not make it than make it at this point. Injury hasn't helped but he's 25 and hasn't cemented a best 22 spot.

Dow is untested but looks exactly what's missing, Henry looked good though. Henry is an outside mid/wing or HF, not sure he helps our lack of inside midfielders.

 

[gringo2011]

Will Phillips might be worth a look. He's North's Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

. He's never breaking into their midfield.

 

[stavro#4]

Will Phillips might be worth a look. He's North's Paddy Dow. He's never breaking into their midfield.

He is terrible

 

[g_TRAIN]

And Owens showing he'd struggle to beat Cordy in a 100 meter dash, can't the club work on his running ability, it's a real weakness.

No he doesn't, what gives you this idea?

He's plenty quick enough, signifigantly quicker than most his size.

He won't win a 100m sprint but his first 10m are very quick and powerful.

And his speed certainly is NOT the thing holding him back from more midfield time or effectiveness.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Thursday was totally unacceptable. It will be interesting to see the response this week. Consecutive six and five day breaks with two interstate trips maybe contributed.
We've got an eight day break this week, with (surprise surprise) another interstate trip. This week will tell a bit about where this group are at.

Consecutive six and five day breaks with two interstate trips definitely contributed.
Missing our senior mids also contributed.
Umps sucking the life out of us in the 1st quarter also contributed.
A near all time record scoring accuracy from the dogs also contributed. 17.6 at the end of the 3rd, and at least 3 rushed behinds that l remember, so 17.3 in fact.

We aren’t a contender. Which means we need to add to get there. With a huge need for an inside mid. Key back. Ruck/forward.

Our current draft assets for 2024:

Stkilda first round pick
Adelaide second round pick
Melbourne third rounder
A 4th rounder.

So based on your thinking we are 2-6 picks short of replacing the players we exit.

That then means we need to trade players for picks.

Looking at the out of contract list of players who may be desirable at other clubs:

Howard
Butler
Sharman
Membrey ?
Paton
Jones ?


All would then leave a hole for us and none bar Howard at a reach would give us a decent pick.

You could even say Hunter Clark. But still we are talking a second rounder at best. (Assuming after what seems like 4 injury interrupted seasons he wants a fresh start)

The plus for us is that we have mammoth cap space. So, could we buy a pick?

Looking at what’s still available in terms of OOC:

Bailey smith (apparently Collingwood)

Hugh McCluggage (Gun, can’t see him leaving - would be 27 round 1 25’)

Max Holmes (Perfect fit, would he leave a side looking at playing finals again)

Ollie florent (just can’t see what issues he fixes for us)

Tarryn Thomas (ticks all boxes for needs. Personality is a huge cross)

Other names we could try for that wouldn’t move the needle:
Jordan Berry
Liam Duggan
Ned Moyle

If our season looks shot by the bye. A blooding of whatever youth we have left should be the priority with an eye on the best pick possible.

As it then opens up the possibility of pick splitting to acquire more talent.

But what is clearly evident is that we are going to have to cut hard to go to the draft again in a meaningful way. Otherwise we tread water hoping for further internal development.

Cut hard and we're screwed. Cut 6-7 at maximum. Draft 4, trade for 1 or two. And we're committed to drafting a Zebra already.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Because Owens is not a natural midfielder- he is tough and takes a good mark, but hasn't got the leg speed, especially over a short burst. He should be tried at CHB or somewhere in the back half.

Actually Owens does have excellent speed over a short burst. I think it might be more to do with him being somewhat reactive which isn't what we need.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Clark is more likely to not make it than make it at this point. Injury hasn't helped but he's 25 and hasn't cemented a best 22 spot.

Dow is untested but looks exactly what's missing, Henry looked good though. Henry is an outside mid/wing or HF, not sure he helps our lack of inside midfielders.

Henry took some CBA's before injured and gave us a real spark. He'll get used through there more.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Because Owens is not a natural midfielder- he is tough and takes a good mark, but hasn't got the leg speed, especially over a short burst. He should be tried at CHB or somewhere in the back half.

He's got plenty of speed. Especially over a short distance. Way more than someone like Cripps or Fyfe who he is compared to often.

He's just not a natrual accumulator

 

[Saintbloke]

He's got plenty of speed. Especially over a short distance. Way more than someone like Cripps or Fyfe who he is compared to often.

He's just not a natrual accumulator

Cripps and Fyfe are not speedsters, but no way Owens is any faster off the mark.

 

[stavro#4]

Consecutive six and five day breaks with two interstate trips definitely contributed.
Missing our senior mids also contributed.
Umps sucking the life out of us in the 1st quarter also contributed.
A near all time record scoring accuracy from the dogs also contributed. 17.6 at the end of the 3rd, and at least 3 rushed behinds that l remember, so 17.3 in fact.

Cut hard and we're screwed. Cut 6-7 at maximum. Draft 4, trade for 1 or two. And we're committed to drafting a Zebra already.

As my post pointed out.

We can’t cut. We need to trade players out for currency unless we are pick buying. We don’t have enough picks to cut and trade.

But the only absolutely terrible deal I’ve heard whispers of being on the market is Lobb and they won’t be upgrading a pick for us.
It would be something like the Melbourne third rounder for Lobb and a dogs 4th

 

[g_TRAIN]

Cripps and Fyfe are not speedsters, but no way Owens is any faster off the mark.

Yes way he is.

Edit: more to the point, speed is not a factor limiting him as far as being a mid goes as someone suggested. Speed is actually more important for a forward.