Oppo Camp Non Geelong football (AFL) discussion 2022, part II

[Pure_Ownage]

Any team in the 8 is a threat if they can get their best together. Freo and Carlton are still capable of finding IT.

I really only think us (favourites) melbourne (if they get their act together) sydney or the dogs (if they make it and go on a run)could win it everyone else is making up the numbers.

 

[Cataholic]

Sydney are a threat particularly if they get top 2 and home finals. Richmond will still be relying on other results specifically the dogs and carlton to fall over, to get in.

Totally agree.

Whilst I think Richmond have some belief, they need a lot of luck as you said, and even then I don't think they can go all the way.

 

[Cataholic]

I really only think us (favourites) melbourne (if they get their act together) sydney or the dogs (if they make it and go on a run)could win it everyone else is making up the numbers.

How I see it too.

Will take a complete choke by one of these teams for anyone else to make it I reckon.

 

[Mr Meow]

I know what you're saying, but I see it as like the weight divisions in boxing.

The 8 contenders can all box, but some are heavyweights and the others are lightweights.

The most boring discussion killer in sports is "team A can beat anyone on their day" or "whoever finds form and avoids injuries will take it home". Such redundant statements. We come here to rank, compare, speculate and analyse. Then see how that evolves week to week. Or else it's pointless talking until 29 mins in the last quarter of the grand final.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Totally agree.

Whilst I think Richmond have some belief, they need a lot of luck as you said, and even then I don't think they can go all the way.

Richmond can win a final and knock a good 5th team (say collingwood or brisbane)out but i dont think they have the consistency to go all the way especially with dusty an injury ?

 

[Cataholic]

Richmond can win a final and knock a good 5th team (say collingwood or brisbane)out but i dont think they have the consistency to go all the way especially with dusty an injury ?

Grimes hurts too.

Their consistency, and game style, isn't good enough now to knock the Top 4 off anymore imo, and the energy just to get there would break them I reckon.

 

[Cataholic]

The most boring discussion killer in sports is "team A can beat anyone on their day" or "whoever finds form and avoids injuries will take it home". Such redundant statements. We come here to rank, compare, speculate and analyse. Then see how that evolves week to week. Or else it's pointless talking until 29 mins in the last quarter of the grand final.

Hypotheticals allow you to dare the virtually impossible, but considering the balance of probabilities narrows the field considerably.

 

[feelinfeline]

What a crock of s**t.

the storm were the most blatant salary cap abusers Australian sport has ever seen. They were literally running 2 sets of books for 5 years and paying players significant sums outside of the cap. They cheated at least 2 teams out of deserved premierships. no other salary cap scandal even comes close to the magnitude of their cheating.

and to make it worse, the key players involved have showed no remorse, no contrition for what they did. They still believe they did nothing wrong and try and claim the premierships taken away as being legit. Cameron smith is at the head of the queue in this regard.

petty Syd vs Melb rivalries have nothing to do with this. the storm are fantastic cheats, pure and simple.

The Storm WERE cheats and they were punished for it. The key player was Brian Waldron, who HAS shown remorse and contrition - too late, but he did it.

Brian Waldron apologises for Melbourne Storm scandal

Brian Waldron has apologised to fans for the scandal that led to Melbourne Storm being stripped of two premierships

www.theguardian.com

Others such as Smith weren't directly involved, but if they haven't shown contrition, that's damning.

But talking about Storm as cheats in the present tense is a bit much. It happened 13 years ago. It was terrible and shameful, but the club hasn't been accused of any cheating since then, unless you have any evidence.

 

[Mr Meow]

Hypotheticals allow you to dare the virtually impossible, but considering the balance of probabilities narrows the field considerably.

Bingo. Whoever finishes top 4 will be legitimate contenders. Melbourne and Collingwood are blessed as even in 3rd or 4th they'd be looking at a QF at the G. Sydney seem the only team with the mettle of the interstate teams to win multiple games at the G. And Geelong are currently the best.

If Brisbane replace one of Sydney or Collingwood in the top 4, that would effectively knock that teams flag chances over I think. Yet there would be question marks remaining over the Lions. Thus that's probably the outcome I hope for.

 

[Gunf]

Fell asleep early last night and what i thought would happen happened.

Melb left the door open and Coll ran straight through it.

Melb really remind me of us a few years ago when we started the year in awesome form but at some point started going w-l-w-l-w-l-w etc all the way up to finals. They also seem to have the same problems we used to have in which our defence is good and our midfield get tons of inside 50s but cannot convert those into goals.

 

[Cataholic]

Bingo. Whoever finishes top 4 will be legitimate contenders. Melbourne and Collingwood are blessed as even in 3rd or 4th they'd be looking at a QF at the G. Sydney seem the only team with the mettle of the interstate teams to win multiple games at the G. And Geelong are currently the best.

If Brisbane replace one of Sydney or Collingwood in the top 4, that would effectively knock that teams flag chances over I think. Yet there would be question marks remaining over the Lions. Thus that's probably the outcome I hope for.

Agreed. I don't rate Brisbane, but they could provide nuisance value.

 

[Mr Meow]

Fell asleep early last night and what i thought would happen happened.

Melb left the door open and Coll ran straight through it.

Melb really remind me of us a few years ago when we started the year in awesome form but at some point started going w-l-w-l-w-l-w etc all the way up to finals. They also seem to have the same problems we used to have in which our defence is good and our midfield get tons of inside 50s but cannot convert those into goals.

Yep. Last year to their credit, Brown found some form out of nowhere, Gawn was kicking bags and their mediums/lesser lights stepped up. Only Fritsch and Pickett are offering similar output but even that is here and there.

Geelong's current forward line probably nabs us at least two more flags if plugged into some previous sides of the past decade. But Hawkins and some misfits it was.

 

[catempire]

Haven’t seen Vdubs this excited since North was 10-1 in 2016!

 

[Mr Meow]

Haven’t seen Vdubs this excited since North was 10-1 in 2016!

I predicted this a few weeks ago when I saw their fixture list. I believe there's a secondary affiliation to the Pies as well. GeelongCrazy declaring them clear premiership favourites was a surprise though. I think people have been ordering new lids as the Cats accumulate wins.

 

[Gunf]

Yep. Last year to their credit, Brown found some form out of nowhere, Gawn was kicking bags and their mediums/lesser lights stepped up. Only Fritsch and Pickett are offering similar output but even that is here and there.

Geelong's current forward line probably nabs us at least two more flags if plugged into some previous sides of the past decade. But Hawkins and some misfits it was.

Since Melb started losing i have seen 2 performances from them that should have them as favourites or at least in the top couple of favourites.

Against Brisbane and against Freo.
Freo are starting to fall away as a lot of younger sides do. And the week after they beat Bris they started playing crap again.

Right now i would have the favourites something like.

1 Geelong
2 Coll/Sydney


3 Brisbane/Melb

4 Freo


5 We will see who makes it for this tier

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

The media circus will be on in earnest today (on radio) after the pies win last night. They'll be frothing at the mouth to declare them the best team in the competition. It will be somewhat sickening.

 

[Mr Meow]

The media circus will be on in earnest today (on radio) after the pies win last night. They'll be frothing at the mouth to declare them the best team in the competition. It will be somewhat sickening.

Most Pies hype since 2011 (2018 and 2019 they didn't seem to have such in season momentum)?

Attention away from Geelong, the best performed team?

This sounds familiar and I LOVE it.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Collingwoods % will still drop them down in the event of points tie.
Eg if bris win their 2 home games (got carlton at a good time injury wise), syd beat north and coll and melb beat carlton coll will finish 5th according to my predictor.
We get brisbane in week 1 at the G which i would love.
The other thing that works against pies is when they play syd next week top 2 is on the line for sydney and if carlton lose their next 2 they will have to beat coll in round 23 to cling to 8th so they will throw everything at it.

Id love to get collingwood in a QF as i dont rate them but i think bris or melb is more likely the way the ladder is.

I've just done the predictor again. I think Melbourne are in big trouble here. I think they miss the top 4. Brisbane are likey to win all their remaining games (Carlton at the Gabba, Saints at Marvel and Dees at the Gabba).

Dees should beat Carlton next week but likely lose to Lions at the Gabba. Pies should lose to Swans next week but beat Carlton last round.

Swans should win their last three (North, Pies at SCG and Saints).

This being the case, Dees have to win their last two games to make the top 4 (last game is against the Lions at the Gabba).

Regarding Richmond, I think both Tigers and Bulldogs make the 8 and Carlton drop out. Calrton have three tough games and the Tigers have a soft draw. Port in Adelaide is their toughest assignment tonight, but Port have nothing to play for now.

 

[allrighty]

The media circus will be on in earnest today (on radio) after the pies win last night. They'll be frothing at the mouth to declare them the best team in the competition. It will be somewhat sickening.

And of course it means jack, and is probably better for us anyway

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Grimes hurts too.

Their consistency, and game style, isn't good enough now to knock the Top 4 off anymore imo, and the energy just to get there would break them I reckon.

I agree...a lot of their key players are near the end and unlike our over 30s their form is dropping off and injuries have hit them hard. They might win 1 final if they even make it but i dont see them getting to a GF.

 

[allrighty]

I've just done the predictor again. I think Melbourne are in big trouble here. I think they miss the top 4. Brisbane are likey to win all their remaining games (Carlton at the Gabba, Saints at Marvel and Dees at the Gabba).

Dees should beat Carlton next week but likely lose to Lions at the Gabba. Pies should lose to Swans next week but beat Carlton last round.

Swans should win their last three (North, Pies at SCG and Saints).

This being the case, Dees have to win their last two games to make the top 4 (last game is against the Lions at the Gabba).

Regarding Richmond, I think both Tigers and Bulldogs make the 8 and Carlton drop out. Calrton have three tough games and the Tigers have a soft draw. Port in Adelaide is their toughest assignment tonight, but Port have nothing to play for now.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

View attachment 1467609

I take it you have Dees beating Lions last round??

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I've just done the predictor again. I think Melbourne are in big trouble here. I think they miss the top 4. Brisbane are likey to win all their remaining games (Carlton at the Gabba, Saints at Marvel and Dees at the Gabba).

Dees should beat Carlton next week but likely lose to Lions at the Gabba. Pies should lose to Swans next week but beat Carlton last round.

Swans should win their last three (North, Pies at SCG and Saints).

This being the case, Dees have to win their last two games to make the top 4 (last game is against the Lions at the Gabba).

Regarding Richmond, I think both Tigers and Bulldogs make the 8 and Carlton drop out. Calrton have three tough games and the Tigers have a soft draw. Port in Adelaide is their toughest assignment tonight, but Port have nothing to play for now.

Melbourne could miss the 4 yes but it would require collingwood to beat carlton and carlton might have everything to play for if they are in 8th/9th and might have their injured guys back so i reckon carlton are 50/50 to win that. If they do melb finish top 4. I also think that brisbane are inconsistent and could drop the melb game.

The race for 8th is most interesting. The dogs should win their last 2 so if they can beat freo today they probably get in. A bit depends on port but their form has been good and they would love to knock richmond out i reckon they win tonight. If that happens one win will get carlton in or st kilda will get in if they can win their 2 marvel games (big ask admittedly). My bet is dogs and blues make it and richmond and st kilda miss.

Interrstingly if carlton lose their next 2 and then beat collingwood and get in they will likely play again the next week in an EF. Would be huge.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Most Pies hype since 2011 (2018 and 2019 they didn't seem to have such in season momentum)?

Attention away from Geelong, the best performed team?

This sounds familiar and I LOVE it.

It won't help the Pies either. Their whole narrative this season has been 'against all odds' and 'doing it the hard way'.

If they finish top 4 or even top 2 that suddenly dissapears. There will be genuine expectation for them to win the premiership, particularly with that massive fan base. They will suddenly carry the burden of expectation which they haven't had all year.

I'd almost see them as more threatening if they finish 5th. It would suit their narrative better.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Melbourne could miss the 4 yes but it would require collingwood to beat carlton and carlton might have everything to play for if they are in 8th/9th and might have their injured guys back so i reckon carlton are 50/50 to win that. If they do melb finish top 4. I also think that brisbane are inconsistent and could drop the melb game.

The race for 8th is most interesting. The dogs should win their last 2 so if they can beat freo today they probably get in. A bit depends on port but their form has been good and they would love to knock richmond out i reckon they win tonight. If that happens one win will get carlton in or st kilda will get in if they can win their 2 marvel games (big ask admittedly). My bet is dogs and blues make it and richmond and st kilda miss.

Interrstingly if carlton lose their next 2 and then beat collingwood and get in they will likely play again the next week in an EF. Would be huge.

It would be huge. Lots of permutations and water to go under the bridge I guess. No doubt there will be upsets and unexpected results to come.

It's so up in the air. I just find the thought of Dees potentially missing the top 4 to be remarkable after they won their first 10-games and looked unbeatable. Personally, I think they'll have to win their last two games to make it. But as you say, depends on other results, they could still scrape in.