List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[Mattman93]

I would also absolutely bid on and draft Walter at pick 1 if given the option. Still has a lot of work to do but has that aggression and will to impose that in my mind makes a huge difference particularly with key forwards.

I love Walter and would take him at 1, but being 'given the option' is a purely theoretical fantasy right?

 

[ROO DOGG]

Fitzroy, University and the Guangdong Tigers.

Guangdong Tigers go alright, they have us covered.

 

[TerryFilk]

1	West Coast
2	North Melbourne
3	Hawthorn
4	Carlton
5	Sydney
6	Gold Coast
7	Melbourne
8	GWS
9	GWS
10	Geelong

We love to deal Considering we likely finish 12- 16 in 2024 then that pick will be 3-6.

• North under Clarkson will likely chase KPP
• Hawthorn under Mitchell are delusional and believe they have all the pieces so they could deal
• Carlton are in win now mode all the time, but love their star players and I can see them target #1 this year
• Sydney will scoop up a slider and make out like bandits
• GC probably trade out for a poor deal from a top 4 team

Hawthorns pick would be about equal but then we'd likely have to sweeten the trade a lil bit.
Carlton is the interesting one here IMO. #4, #60, #67. They would have to bring in future picks to get any deals done.

Absolutely hilarious how you have just ruled out us finishing bottom 2 next year. I’d say we’re pretty much a lock for a bottom 2 finish

 

[ROO DOGG]

I love Walter and would take him at 1, but being 'given the option' is a purely theoretical fantasy right?

I will look to see where and who said he can make that call and get back to you. They also said it has never been done before, but that is probably because its too risky for anyone except a pick one contender.

 

[dinnaz]

What 2-6 teams are going to be worse than us next year???

No way we have the same injury curse 3 years running.
The shithouse clubs:
North
Hawthorn
--------
Then a couple of these middle of the road teams will have the wheels come off:
Carlton
Geelong
Richmond
GWS
Freo
WB
Essendon

Then we win 1-2 games at home and finish above where we should

 

[briztoon]

No way we have the same injury curse 3 years running.
The shithouse clubs:
North
Hawthorn
--------
Then a couple of these middle of the road teams will have the wheels come off:
Carlton
Geelong
Richmond
GWS
Freo
WB
Essendon

Then we win 1-2 games at home and finish above where we should

Are you delisting all your older, semi-permanently injured players?

I believe Hawthorn have shown enough to move them out of the sh!thouse clubs list.

I also believe GWS and Essendon are likely to be pushing the top 8, and I believe they are unlikely to see their wheels fall off. I'd add Freo as well, if their coach looks to change his game plan to reflect the modern style. Same for WB. And GC if they find a decent coach and assistants.

Depending what goes on at Carlton, I can see them falling apart.

Richmond and Geelong are prime candidates to slide back, but I believe both teams will have enough youth and experience on their list to not be completely horrible.

 

[Godfather32]

No way we have the same injury curse 3 years running.
The shithouse clubs:
North
Hawthorn
--------
Then a couple of these middle of the road teams will have the wheels come off:
Carlton
Geelong
Richmond
GWS
Freo
WB
Essendon

Then we win 1-2 games at home and finish above where we should

It's not an injury curse, it's having too many old, cooked players on the list who aren't able to play regularly which puts pressure on the rest of the list to perform before they're ready and/or fit enough for AFL football. It's a never ending cycle which started with an initial handful of injuries to senior players exacerbated by the fact that Nic Nat & Yeo were already out and Shuey and Hurn struggle to play more than a couple of games in a row.
I hate to break this to you but WE are the shithouse club, we're seriously lacking talent who are in their actual prime, we're going to be ****ing terrible next year with or without injuries.

 

[TerryFilk]

It's not an injury curse, it's having too many old, cooked players on the list who aren't able to play regularly which puts pressure on the rest of the list to perform before they're ready and/or fit enough for AFL football. It's a never ending cycle which started with an initial handful of injuries to senior players exacerbated by the fact that Nic Nat & Yeo were already out and Shuey and Hurn struggle to play more than a couple of games in a row.
I hate to break this to you but WE are the shithouse club, we're seriously lacking talent who are in their actual prime, we're going to be ******* terrible next year with or without injuries.

Yeah I can’t believe some fans are still falling for the PR that we’re only bad because of injuries, I don’t expect us to be consistently competitive until the 2026 season unfortunately, maybe 2025 if we can lure a couple big free agents in the 2024 off season.

 

[Godfather32]

Yeah I can’t believe some fans are still falling for the PR that we’re only bad because of injuries, I don’t expect us to be consistently competitive until the 2026 season unfortunately, maybe 2025 if we can lure a couple big free agents in the 2024 off season.

They've been drinking the Trev kool-aid.
Yep, agree with your timeline completely.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I love Walter and would take him at 1, but being 'given the option' is a purely theoretical fantasy right?

I'm not sure I'd take Walter at pick 1.
Watching him in the champs he has been consistently good every game without being absolutely dominant.
For instance, on the weekend he was great in the first quarter but hardly sighted from about midway through the 2nd quarter (I think he had one ineffective handball between the 16 minute mark of the 2nd quarter and the end of the game, that's a massive period to have zero impact, yet his ranking in many people's eyes seems to have improved since this game).
Against WA he was beaten by Curtin for positioning in marking contests on most occasions.
Perhaps if he's finishing had been tidier in these games the gap would be less (although Harley's missed his fair share of goal scoring opportunities in the last month) but I'd still have Reid a bit ahead of Walter for the time being.
In any event I think Reid is exactly the type of midfielder we need (albeit that a KPP is also a pressing need) and Walter, as you've pointed out, is not available to us.
We'll see what both produce on Sunday.

 

[dinnaz]

Are you delisting all your older, semi-permanently injured players?

I believe Hawthorn have shown enough to move them out of the sh!thouse clubs list.

I also believe GWS and Essendon are likely to be pushing the top 8, and I believe they are unlikely to see their wheels fall off. I'd add Freo as well, if their coach looks to change his game plan to reflect the modern style. Same for WB. And GC if they find a decent coach and assistants.

Depending what goes on at Carlton, I can see them falling apart.

Richmond and Geelong are prime candidates to slide back, but I believe both teams will have enough youth and experience on their list to not be completely horrible.

Too much kerfuffle about some injured guys. It's not like 6 rookie picks would have propped up the team this year. In fact we are stronger if they play any games so I wouldn't worry about them at all.

Hawthorn have spent up in the midfield but have zero spine & honestly Worpel/Newcombe are state league plodders with Ward pushed to the peripheral. They don't really seem like improving a whole lot.

I have in likelyhood for finals in 2024 Syd, GC, Freo, WB, Ess, GWS, Carl, Rich, Geel but with a few close losses & injuries you can really drop out of the race. Look at Melb in 2019 3rd last either side of Prelim and GF appearances.

 

[Jako Darling]

Sure in theory yes.

But thats only applicable if you have a willing trade partner, and there is no guarantee that will happen, plus the likelihood that we could do so without paying overs is slim.

We need to be very prudent with every bit of draft capital at our disposal in the next three years, trading overs to get back into the first round next year is, IMO, not a smart way to manage your draft capital.

We are a long way away from just needing "one missing piece", our list has holes everywhere so we need every draft pick we can muster to expedite our rise back into contention.

We need:

Inside Mids
Balanced Mids
KPF
KPD
Ruck

At best we have a 50% success rate ( and I would suggest thats optimistic and more like 1 in 3 ), then the more picks we get the better chance we have to find a good player.

We need to be patient, as frustrating as that is, it's also the best way to maximise your draft capital and not rashly spend multiple picks to try and accelerate the rebuild, as it rarely is a successful ploy.

I'd argue that Barnett has covered us for ruck long term

 

[eagles rule]

I also read he can choose to go to goldcoast or not but not shure the if true?

your right I recall Arthur Jones opting out as a WCE NGA ..

 

[maxrm]

Based on my ladder predictor, Sydney will finish somewhere between 15th and 12th (I have them 14th).
Factoring in Walter’s bid, this means their first round selection will be 5-8 (let’s assume 6).

If Barrass is keen to head east, the absolute bare minimum for a trade has to be pick 6ish. We should start by requesting Sheldrick too.
Understandably, they’ll avoid including him but it should still be the starting point on our end.

I believe we should only trade Barrass knowing we’ll draft a young KPD.
Pick 6 definitely gives us a chance of landing Curtin (particularly if tents or vapes come into play) and if he isn’t available, O’Sullivan still shapes as a prime Barrass replacement.
Or of course, if we’ve identified some KPD talent that we’re happy with later in the draft, one of Watson, McKercher or Caddy will be around which would still be a great option.

Ideal scenario:
1. WC - Reid
2. GC - Walter
3. NM - McKercher
4. HAW - Caddy
5. CARL - Watson
6. WC - Curtin

Honestly I believe this is a genuine possibility. And consequently, if Sydney offer pick 6 as they should for Barrass, I say we take it!
Anything less than that, and it’s a definite no go.

 

[Monocle]

I'd argue that Barnett has covered us for ruck long term

Keep arguing.

 

[JackOutback]

Are you delisting all your older, semi-permanently injured players?

I believe Hawthorn have shown enough to move them out of the sh!thouse clubs list.

I also believe GWS and Essendon are likely to be pushing the top 8, and I believe they are unlikely to see their wheels fall off. I'd add Freo as well, if their coach looks to change his game plan to reflect the modern style. Same for WB. And GC if they find a decent coach and assistants.

Depending what goes on at Carlton, I can see them falling apart.

Richmond and Geelong are prime candidates to slide back, but I believe both teams will have enough youth and experience on their list to not be completely horrible.

I mean, the other bottom teams can’t move up, the lower ranked teams push for the eight and the top teams stay contending. Someone has to fill spots 13-18.

 

[Jumpoff Joey]

We could easily find 2-3 maybe 4 teams worse than us next year.

Yea, naaaa

Let’s say we let go Shuey, Hurn, Trew, West and Clark (likely).

Shuey and Hurn although don’t play every game bring at least calmness, experience and EFFORT. I think we’ll be a kangaroo in headlights again and shit the bed.

I’m tipping wooden spoon again. And would not trade F1’st

 

[briztoon]

your right I recall Arthur Jones opting out as a WCE NGA ..

Didn't he not sign the NGA papers, so he never was in your NGA?

 

[briztoon]

I mean, the other bottom teams can’t move up, the lower ranked teams push for the eight and the top teams stay contending. Someone has to fill spots 13-18.

I'm not necessarily seeing teams move up. Just the other bottom teams widen the gap between themselves and West Coast.

At some point, North's kids have to turn up and start making them more competitive as well.

 

[TerryFilk]

your right I recall Arthur Jones opting out as a WCE NGA ..

Didn’t we forget to do his paper work lol?

 

[Jaspar24]

Great move by our recruitment team not taking him apparently, according to wiki the man’s still serving on the beaches of gallipoli.

 

[twce13]

Not sure if this is a stupid question but lets say we're terrible again next year and ask for and receive a priority pick, could we get one after our first pick?
Theres been a few ppl suggesting we trade next years first pick, was thinking we might be jeopardising having the first 2 picks

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Well technically that would still be our pick, so it could still be pick 2.

Actually not having a first round pick and being shit still might make afl pity us and give us Said pick.

But really trading out f1 is a terrible idea. A 1st rnd pick in current year always holds more value then a f1.. so we would be doing ourselves a disservice unless we have a dramatic improvement, and that's unlikely.

 

[ziad]

Too much kerfuffle about some injured guys. It's not like 6 rookie picks would have propped up the team this year. In fact we are stronger if they play any games so I wouldn't worry about them at all.

Hawthorn have spent up in the midfield but have zero spine & honestly Worpel/Newcombe are state league plodders with Ward pushed to the peripheral. They don't really seem like improving a whole lot.

I have in likelyhood for finals in 2024 Syd, GC, Freo, WB, Ess, GWS, Carl, Rich, Geel but with a few close losses & injuries you can really drop out of the race. Look at Melb in 2019 3rd last either side of Prelim and GF appearances.

Interesting to ponder if Long would be getting a game if Cripps and Ryan were fit? Lady luck comes in strange forms.

 

[shooshka]

Yea, naaaa

Let’s say we let go Shuey, Hurn, Trew, West and Clark (likely).

Shuey and Hurn although don’t play every game bring at least calmness, experience and EFFORT. I think we’ll be a kangaroo in headlights again and s**t the bed.

I’m tipping wooden spoon again. And would not trade F1’st

Return of
Cole
JJ
Ryan
Cripps

More out of
Yeo
Gov

Young guys who should improve slowly each season:
Ginbey
Hewett
Long
Culley

Then we have Burgiel, Barnett and 2023 draftees.

It is clearly not a top 8 side, but also our transition from the backline will be completely different with the above and we will likely score more…

Can definitely be better than 3-4 other sides with our share of luck




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[Wooshaaaa]

which puts pressure on the rest of the list to perform before they're ...... fit enough for AFL football. .

Hit. Nail. On. Head.

And this is both a recruitment issue and high performance issue.

1. The likes of Ashcroft, sheezle, phillipoo etc demonstrate that any 18yo being drafted need be AFL fit ready, particularly midfielders. (You can exclude some of the big key position players). It is beholden on the recruitment team to select players that are fit. A classic example of a poor selection is the lions taking Raynor with pick one knowing he didn't have a tank. This is why gaff has been great for us for so long. This is why I was keen on Holland's last year.

2. It's then beholden on the high performance team to ensure fine tuning the athlete to the speed at AFL level. This means walking a fine line between managing load and preventing soft tissue injuries....eg. Burgiel!!

I believe that until the 2022 draft we didn't recruit AFL ready and once in the club were mismanaged.







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