Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands


After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.








Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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Wonder what the plan for Blakey is? His straight-line speed can’t really be countered but I wonder if a high-IQ footballer like Martin can expose him?

We’re clearly going in with a plan to win the footy at the contest and considering how scrappy lasts night’s game was (aside from the odd score from turnover), it’s hard to argue against the strategy.

Motlop is the one I’m disappointed didn’t get a run - this time next year I think he’ll be a permanent fixture of the forward line.

Hollands is unlucky, but Doc was phenomenal on the wing whilst he was injured and it coincided with our hot run of mid-season form.
The only argument is that it is likely to be low scoring, so wont be many centre bounces for Pitto to compete in..
 

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Down in Melb for the big one tonight - can't wait.

A full colosseum , primed with 80k Blues fans - can't wait to feel that heat. God knows we need some!

The last game I went to was v Suns in GC.

Thinking this one might feel a little different.

Crack in Baggers!

I'm sure that's the plan - they wont die wondering.
 
Saw bobby hill running around dominating last night and my mind immediately went to Motts.

Criminal if he misses. And he’s not a good sub choice so has to be in the 22 imo.

Those 2 players are not really similar at the moment. I hope mots gets to that level but he’s not there yet. I would say cottrell plays more like hill, but cotters is more combative.

Selection is difficult and good players have missed out today.

The saying ‘don’t get beaten by what you know’ is ringing in my ears.

We know the strength of swans is the transition from back to front and with the marking players of Heeney, Hayward and the 3 taller forwards we needed aerial coverage.

I look at it like it’s Marchy for Fish and Pitto for Mots.

We have Martin, owies, cunners and fog for tackling/defensive forward half pressure so I can see why we dropped Mots.

Voss wants ‘finals’ on ball brutality, with TDK to be fresher for longer so Pitt has come in.

I don’t know if it’s the right strategy but I do know Voss has all the finals experience you could want and in the end it’s a simple game - win the ball, get it forward and kick some goals.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
off the dees board (8pm)

"Game over at 1/4 time and we are looking at Brayshaw and JVR out next week. Going to be back to back straight sets but hey we extended the coach again great stuff".

Melbourne looked like the next big dynasty after 2021. What has happened to them?
 
Those 2 players are not really similar at the moment. I hope mots gets to that level but he’s not there yet. I would say cottrell plays more like hill, but cotters is more combative.

Selection is difficult and good players have missed out today.

The saying ‘don’t get beaten by what you know’ is ringing in my ears.

We know the strength of swans is the transition from back to front and with the marking players of Heeney, Hayward and the 3 taller forwards we needed aerial coverage.

I look at it like it’s Marchy for Fish and Pitto for Mots.

We have Martin, owies, cunners and fog for tackling/defensive forward half pressure so I can see why we dropped Mots.

Voss wants ‘finals’ on ball brutality, with TDK to be fresher for longer so Pitt has come in.

I don’t know if it’s the right strategy but I do know Voss has all the finals experience you could want and in the end it’s a simple game - win the ball, get it forward and kick some goals.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Good post although I think our selection is the arrogance, in a good way, of the combative Voss knowing we are the better side and backing us in to beat them with our weapons and less concerned with what Sydney are doing.
 
I really don't see us dropping either. Maybe a Darcy Cameron style sub at 3qt?
If it's greasy footy with a lot of stoppages, neither of our rucks have the tank to go a full hard 4qts against Hickey - in fact it's a big advantage for us to go 2 vs 1 with a late sub for a quick mid.

As many have said, control the stoppage, control the game.

Go you ****ing baggers!
Wouldn't mind to see either Pitto or TDK left out for Motts.

I agree, we don't need to see 2 big guys lumbering around in the wet.
 
clangers not a great measure, isn't purely disposal related: "Clanger: An error made by a player resulting in a negative result for his side. Disposal clangers are any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over to the opposition. Frees and 50-metre penalties against, No Pressure Errors, Dropped Marks and Debits are all included in clangers."

If you look at disposals per turnover, it's Cripps 8.6 (our best mid) vs Dow 4.7 (behind Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, Walsh, Kennedy & Docherty).

So Dow's getting our best metres per disposal of our mids with 21.8 vs Crippa's 10.5, but he's turning it over almost twice as often, which is probably why Dow's scoring chain involvement is about 35-40% lower than Cripps, and lower than all of our other mids bar Hewett (0.5% lower than Dow).

Walsh, Cerra & Cripps are the standout 'podium' for our score involvement % mids.
Disposal per clanger is a flawed stat - Cripps & Hew should be very high given they handball more than they kick, all the stats have to be viewed in context & with an eye towards what skews them.
We would be in deep shit if Crippa wasnt the highest- it would mean he misses a heap of HB.
 

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By golly, we are ludicrously short on the tote, should I feel the urge to partake of a gambling thingy…..which I shall pass on.

Shoulder roast is thawing, beers already in the fridge, only need to give the Billy a rinse & I am well ahead of schedule.

Very, very, very excited, humans.😎👍
 
They beat us by 26 pts in Sydney and these are our outs v ins since that game:

Kennedy - Cincotta
Durdin - Fogarty
Hollands - Cuningham
Boyd- Marchbank
Motlop - Martin

Arguably a shade stronger this time around, especially with Martin, Fog and Cuners up forward. Kennedy played off hbf too! Much rather Cinc for that role.

We were ran over in last qtr when Hewett, Durdin, Cripps, Hollands and Newman were injured in-game leaving us with few rotations, not helpful coming off a 5 day break.

Playing at the G and with the team in far better form, especially Walsh and Crippa, I predict a 2-3 goal win. No gimme. This crew made the GF and have great finals experience, we underestimate them at our peril.
 
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By golly, we are ludicrously short on the tote, should I feel the urge to partake of a gambling thingy…..which I shall pass on.

Shoulder roast is thawing, beers already in the fridge, only need to give the Billy a rinse & I am well ahead of schedule.

Very, very, very excited, humans.😎👍
Magnificent, go baggers 👍
 
The only difference to my best team for this week was that I had Mots in and Pitto out (although I knew Pitto would be selected and I was torn on that one myself (I don’t rate him but we do seem to play better as a team)). Thought Fog would/should be replaced by Mots though. Worry we’re going a bit slow now.

Like I’ve said previously, any line-up is a gamble bc we don’t know what our best 22 is. Annoying but nothing we can do about it.

Desperately want to see a good performance from H. He has the potential to make or break the line-up we’re choosing to run with.
 
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Those 2 players are not really similar at the moment. I hope mots gets to that level but he’s not there yet. I would say cottrell plays more like hill, but cotters is more combative.

Selection is difficult and good players have missed out today.

The saying ‘don’t get beaten by what you know’ is ringing in my ears.

We know the strength of swans is the transition from back to front and with the marking players of Heeney, Hayward and the 3 taller forwards we needed aerial coverage.

I look at it like it’s Marchy for Fish and Pitto for Mots.

We have Martin, owies, cunners and fog for tackling/defensive forward half pressure so I can see why we dropped Mots.

Voss wants ‘finals’ on ball brutality, with TDK to be fresher for longer so Pitt has come in.

I don’t know if it’s the right strategy but I do know Voss has all the finals experience you could want and in the end it’s a simple game - win the ball, get it forward and kick some goals.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Not sure we'll see too much of Heeney up forward - followed Cripps around last time and did a good job of it, should happen again.
 
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