Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Yeah we've got like 6 guys who can play wing on a regular basis.

We need inside mids, that's why they've gone after Baz hard.
Wells/Mack are the best in the League, people gotta have faith.

If we get Baz we could set Holmes & Dempsey up as one of the best wing duos in the game for 10 years.

They'll still get chances inside, but having that speed, class, & creativity on the outside while being fed by a half decent midfield could be pretty special.

Baz, Bruhn, & Clark being the main ones for the future, with Danger & Stewart in there next year too.

 

[CHAWKTS]

If we get Baz we could set Holmes & Dempsey up as one of the best wing duos in the game for 10 years.

They'll still get chances inside, but having that speed, class, & creativity on the outside while being fed by a half decent midfield could be pretty special.

Baz, Bruhn, & Clark being the main ones for the future, with Danger & Stewart in there next year too.

And Guthrie could be a great recruit next year (I think I might have said that same time last year!!)

 

[Cataholic]

And Guthrie could be a great recruit next year (I think I might have said that same time last year!!)

He'd be coming from a fair way back.

Will be 32, and coming off 2 years of troublesome injuries.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Still stuns me, yet many of us are very aware. . .

 

[Lana]

If anyone ever wants to reflect on the genius of our recruiting and list management department, today is the day. Consider this:

- today we are witnessing the imminent retirement of an all time great key forward, an irreplaceable player who has led our forward line masterfully for over a decade. Inevitably this announcement would be a seismic shift for any club and would leave a hole in the team that would take years to overcome.

Except, at Geelong it has been managed brilliantly. There is no doubt who is the replacement, we have been developing him for 3+ years to step into the role, we have introduced him gently and he looks ready to have a real impact almost straight away.

It is pretty amazing really. Far out we are fortunate to follow such a well run club.

Well we left it to latest point possible and spent less than most. And it remains to be seen if he'll be sufficient. But for now he just need to be what he is.

 

[Hinkley29]

Well we left it to latest point possible and spent less than most. And it remains to be seen if he'll be sufficient. But for now he just need to be what he is.

No we didn’t. We spent big on Cameron to support Hawk and then be the guy. And we started a succession plan for the next key forward 4 years before Hawk retired, which is now starting to pay off.

It is a Masterclass in list management.

 

[Angak]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

?

 

[foxdog50]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith?

Me... Personal... if he didn't do his knee I would of said a top 10 pick... But cos he done his knee, I'd say our 1st round pick ( approx 12-16 ) should do the job...

What's your thoughts he is worth?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No we didn’t. We spent big on Cameron to support Hawk and then be the guy. And we started a succession plan for the next key forward 4 years before Hawk retired, which is now starting to pay off.

It is a Masterclass in list management.

I think its way too early to call it.

 

[Angak]

Me... Personal... if he didn't do his knee I would of said a top 10 pick... But cos he done his knee, I'd say our 1st round pick ( approx 12-16 ) should do the job...

What's your thoughts he is worth?

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

 

[Gunf]

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

You will probably end up getting our first and probably a future second with maybe some other pick swaps

Which would be about right

 

[Commando]

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

The knee injury, the fact he doesn't want to be there and cap issues all against the Dogs here
Late first probably does it with pick exchange later on

 

[Interdimensional Bigfoot]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith?

Bout three fiddy.

 

[Angak]

You will probably end up getting our first and probably a future second with maybe some other pick swaps

Which would be about right

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

Those guys both have multiple years to run on contracts though bailey is ooc.
Given that id say a pick 10-15 plus say a 3rd rounder somewhere is fair.

 

[Gunf]

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

No chance
We are obviously going through a list build/shift and won't risk trading a future first

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

We didnt want to trade our fr1 in the henry deal. I cant imagine we do it now with an ageing list.
Current r1 plus r2s or r3s would be what we offer.

 

[FootyLad0]

We didnt want to trade our fr1 in the henry deal. I cant imagine we do it now with an ageing list.
Current r1 plus r2s or r3s would be what we offer.

And the key here is he's OOC.
Dogs and Sam Power aren't stupid.

Bailey doesn't want to be there, that ship has clearly sailed.
He's Out of Contract, the whole "walk them to the draft" is a silly tired old trope that basically hasn't been used since what? Luke Ball and Nick Stevens like a decade and two decades ago.
Ball ended up where he wanted to go and Stevens ended up at Blues instead of Pies which meant Port got nothing anyway.

Dogs and every AFL team for that matter don't want to go down that route.
You play silly buggers you end up pissing off Bailey's agent, an oppo team's list manager and not to mention Bailey himself.

His agent would then steer his players under his management away from the Dogs like Colin Young and Freo. It's a lose/lose

 

[sexyhunk]

is it a slight concern that we had to go back to jed bews

24

Jed Bews

Age

30

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.1

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

178.2

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

205.8

3star

D

8.8

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

to play a lock down small forward role after avoiding it all year. nothing against bews, hope he goes on and win another flag this year but he is closer to the end than the start.

Suprise we havent had a younger replacement that can do that role consistently.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

Yeah, I would be comfortable throwing in our current first and second but that's more than most would be.

The knee is an issue, you're also too stacked to play him in his preferred position. All the names you mentioned are first name on the board for their position at the club they're leaving. At the dogs you'll have to play him as an outright winger. His upside is big too but he hasn't hit that potential, the players you mention in trades all performed to a higher level consistently for years whereas bailey has gone backwards at times. You can't be paying on potential.

You also get less when a player is pushed and pretty clear his time with bevo is done. Big Luke may have learned a lesson about player trades after stringer but the tea leaves are clear.

So, while you won't find a bigger proponent of this trade here, I also wouldn't advise any more than our first and a second. Most here would think I'm over selling the upside

 

[cats_09]

How about we start the Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

trade negotiations by offering pick 94...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

I think if we didn't give up a future first for Ollie Henry coming off a premiership we're not going to give one up coming off a mediocre season underwritten by an easy draw and staring down the barrel of more games experience retiring end of year than North 2016.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

is it a slight concern that we had to go back to jed bews to play a lock down small forward role after avoiding it all year. nothing against bews, hope he goes on and win another flag this year but he is closer to the end than the start.

Suprise we havent had a younger replacement that can do that role consistently.

Anther preseason from Mullin and I'd like to give him another roll through there

 

[dangerwood]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith?

Less than you want and more than we want to give....but I will try and give a legitimate considered answer that might be chastised here.

If we start from his high point/potential, he was pick 7 and in his first few years I would argue he increased his value (2021 finals Baz and 2022) so at that point at least a top 5 pick. With his roll change and perceived disgruntlement, that reduces his value back on par (so say pick 7). The perception is that he isn't valued as highly by Bevo so then you can't come to the trade table saying he is a highly valued player etc. Whilst contracts don't mean as much these days, out of contract also puts some leveraging to Geelong.

On the flip side he is perceived to fill a gap that we need and we want him. There is also competition to get him (contrasting the contract status) so id equal out at original value of pick 7.

If we then add in the uncertainty of his knee and some risk that comes with that (we're a bit gun shy from Woolnough and Menzel). We also know he can't kick. I think that's pushing value back to early teens.....but..again on the flipside, I think we tend to overate the value of picks and many first rounders top 10 picks never make it. Whilst Baz has deficiencies, he has performed well in big games, so we shouldn't assume whoever we would take with our prospective early pick will do the same, it's closer to 50/50 (there's also talk this draft mightn't be that good).

I'd like to look into our draft options more, and consider who we might be passing on in the first round to get Baz. For a guide, last year we traded back to pick 11 and took O'Sullivan. We're all hopeful he will make it (I wasn't that excited by him at the time, I think he will be solid) but I don't think the dogs would accept a straight swap of O'sullivan for Baz, and if Baz was available for pick 11 last year to us.....I think I'd take him. I'd be hard pressed arguing he isn't worth more than pick 11. So it should at least be our first pick. Unfortunately for the dogs they may just have to cop with wherever that lands.

 

[Gunf]

The main factors regarding a deal with Smith are

1. Form decline in 2023 if it had stayed at the 2021/22 level his price would be higher
2. ACL reduces price more due to risk
3 OOC gives the Dogs no leverage

Now some people are comparing him to Rioli but the big differences are

1 Rioli's form has been on the up or at least even and great at that
2 No ACL for rioli
3 Rioli is under contract

3 points for both players meaning 1 players worth has gone up and the others has gone down.