Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

I think if we didn't give up a future first for Ollie Henry coming off a premiership we're not going to give one up coming off a mediocre season underwritten by an easy draw and staring down the barrel of more games experience retiring end of year than North 2016.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

is it a slight concern that we had to go back to jed bews to play a lock down small forward role after avoiding it all year. nothing against bews, hope he goes on and win another flag this year but he is closer to the end than the start.

Suprise we havent had a younger replacement that can do that role consistently.

Anther preseason from Mullin and I'd like to give him another roll through there

 

[dangerwood]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith?

Less than you want and more than we want to give....but I will try and give a legitimate considered answer that might be chastised here.

If we start from his high point/potential, he was pick 7 and in his first few years I would argue he increased his value (2021 finals Baz and 2022) so at that point at least a top 5 pick. With his roll change and perceived disgruntlement, that reduces his value back on par (so say pick 7). The perception is that he isn't valued as highly by Bevo so then you can't come to the trade table saying he is a highly valued player etc. Whilst contracts don't mean as much these days, out of contract also puts some leveraging to Geelong.

On the flip side he is perceived to fill a gap that we need and we want him. There is also competition to get him (contrasting the contract status) so id equal out at original value of pick 7.

If we then add in the uncertainty of his knee and some risk that comes with that (we're a bit gun shy from Woolnough and Menzel). We also know he can't kick. I think that's pushing value back to early teens.....but..again on the flipside, I think we tend to overate the value of picks and many first rounders top 10 picks never make it. Whilst Baz has deficiencies, he has performed well in big games, so we shouldn't assume whoever we would take with our prospective early pick will do the same, it's closer to 50/50 (there's also talk this draft mightn't be that good).

I'd like to look into our draft options more, and consider who we might be passing on in the first round to get Baz. For a guide, last year we traded back to pick 11 and took O'Sullivan. We're all hopeful he will make it (I wasn't that excited by him at the time, I think he will be solid) but I don't think the dogs would accept a straight swap of O'sullivan for Baz, and if Baz was available for pick 11 last year to us.....I think I'd take him. I'd be hard pressed arguing he isn't worth more than pick 11. So it should at least be our first pick. Unfortunately for the dogs they may just have to cop with wherever that lands.

 

[Gunf]

The main factors regarding a deal with Smith are

1. Form decline in 2023 if it had stayed at the 2021/22 level his price would be higher
2. ACL reduces price more due to risk
3 OOC gives the Dogs no leverage

Now some people are comparing him to Rioli but the big differences are

1 Rioli's form has been on the up or at least even and great at that
2 No ACL for rioli
3 Rioli is under contract

3 points for both players meaning 1 players worth has gone up and the others has gone down.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

He'd be coming from a fair way back.

Will be 32, and coming off 2 years of troublesome injuries.

tendon problems generally are because of an overload in training that the tendon cannot adapt to due to insufficient conditioning or strength.

I would take a guess that when he returned to full match day and conditioning that he struggled with the load and his tendons (Achilles) became damaged.

 

[foxdog50]

is it a slight concern that we had to go back to jed bews to play a lock down small forward role after avoiding it all year. nothing against bews, hope he goes on and win another flag this year but he is closer to the end than the start.

Suprise we havent had a younger replacement that can do that role consistently.

Not really his only 30 or 31... so still has footy ahead of him

 

[Strange Cat]

Honestly think we would be getting shafted if we only got a mid-first round pick for Baz.

They're saying pick 6 for Rioli and 2x first for Dan Houston, who are both 4 years older and play in a less prominent position than Baz. Taranto and Hopper went for two firsts. Adam Cerra went for pick 6.

We used pick 7 to draft him, and he has more than lived up to that pick. The modern game really suits Baz with his gut-running + power combination. IMO we should be asking for a high first rounder or two mid-first round picks considering his age and skillset.

Rioli is under contract and Baz isn’t …you don’t have the leavage you think you do

 

[Cataholic]

tendon problems generally are because of an overload in training that the tendon cannot adapt to due to insufficient conditioning or strength.

I would take a guess that when he returned to full match day and conditioning that he struggled with the load and his tendons (Achilles) became damaged.

That seems the most likely explanation.

Then again, my partner had her Achilles rupture, without any prior warning, essentially while just walking and doing some light 'steps'.

She's not a footballer, but played a lot of representative sport and has stayed relatively fit through gym and exercise. Never had tendon trouble until her Achilles suddenly let go.

It was a long recovery, and even now it still troubles her from time to time.

Guthrie would be doing some hard yards, and will be very tentative for a while.

 

[catempire]

I think that's where it will land.

Any chance cats give up this year's and next year's first, or is that off the table?

He’s not Patrick Dangerfield champ. And he’s off an ACL.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Interested to hear from a Geelong perspective, what is a fair trade for Bailey Smith?

Not contracted coming off a 12 month stint on holidays account a ACL.
Cards are not really stacked in the clubs favour.
A pick in the teens is about where it is IMO.
Next years 1st Round Pick with a 3rd coming back... I reckon.
We need our 1st pick this year for another player.

 

[cats_09]

Not contracted coming off a 12 month stint on holidays account a ACL.
Cards are not really stacked in the clubs favour.
A pick in the teens is about where it is IMO.
Next years 1st Round Pick with a 3rd coming back... I reckon.
We need our 1st pick this year for another player.

Who do you think that would be?

 

[Gunf]

Not contracted coming off a 12 month stint on holidays account a ACL.
Cards are not really stacked in the clubs favour.
A pick in the teens is about where it is IMO.
Next years 1st Round Pick with a 3rd coming back... I reckon.
We need our 1st pick this year for another player.

No way in hell am i trading a future first over our current one

 

[Strange Cat]

I think we will use our first as much as it would be nice to keep it , maybe a FR2 included at the most …dogs will be unhappy and cats will be unhappy but that’s how it goes

 

[Gunf]

I think we will use our first as much as it would be nice to keep it , maybe a FR2 included at the most …dogs will be unhappy and cats will be unhappy but that’s how it goes

Pretty much what i expect with maybe some later pick swaps as well

 

[cats_09]

I think we will use our first as much as it would be nice to keep it , maybe a FR2 included at the most …dogs will be unhappy and cats will be unhappy but that’s how it goes

Isn't that generally when you know it's been a good & "fair" deal - when fans from both teams walk away somewhat disgruntled thinking they've either overpaid or been ripped off that's actually closer to being on the money than they want to accept?

 

[D BRIDGE]

I don't think we will have a low enough pick this year to risk keeping to trade our F1 for Smith.

There's maybe 10 or 12 names I wouldn't mind snagging in the draft and a couple of them are academy/father-son options, so I don't think we'd get a look in at any of them with our R1.

Much rather trade our R1 this year for Smith over our F1.

If there happens to be a kid we really like slide a bit in the draft, maybe we could look to live trade our R1 for him... but you can't be sure you get that option until draft night.

Our R1 for Smith seems a fair deal to me.

 

[Strange Cat]

Isn't that generally when you know it's been a good & "fair" deal - when fans from both teams walk away somewhat disgruntled thinking they've either overpaid or been ripped off that's actually closer to being on the money than they want to accept?

Yeah compromises tend to work like that in negotiations

 

[dangerwood]

Isn't that generally when you know it's been a good & "fair" deal - when fans from both teams walk away somewhat disgruntled thinking they've either overpaid or been ripped off that's actually closer to being on the money than they want to accept?

Yeah. Makes me think maybe pick 10 is closer to the mark. A pick in the teens would make me feel we won. Pick 10 starts to feel like too much.

 

[Gunf]

I don't think we will have a low enough pick this year to risk keeping to trade our F1 for Smith.

There's maybe 10 or 12 names I wouldn't mind snagging in the draft and a couple of them are academy/father-son options, so I don't think we'd get a look in at any of them with our R1.

Much rather trade our R1 this year for Smith over our F1.

If there happens to be a kid we really like slide a bit in the draft, maybe we could look to live trade our R1 for him... but you can't be sure you get that option until draft night.

Our R1 for Smith seems a fair deal to me.

Yeah if we use our future first this year i would rather it be on the night for a Holmes

 

[Gunf]

Yeah. Makes me think maybe pick 10 is closer to the mark. A pick in the teens would make me feel we won. Pick 10 starts to feel like too much.

Hence our first plus a future second is about right

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't think we will have a low enough pick this year to risk keeping to trade our F1 for Smith.

There's maybe 10 or 12 names I wouldn't mind snagging in the draft and a couple of them are academy/father-son options, so I don't think we'd get a look in at any of them with our R1.

Much rather trade our R1 this year for Smith over our F1.

If there happens to be a kid we really like slide a bit in the draft, maybe we could look to live trade our R1 for him... but you can't be sure you get that option until draft night.

Our R1 for Smith seems a fair deal to me.

Reckon our best shots with our first are Langford and Allen but even they are probably not at our pick

 

[Gee Class Loco]

No way in hell am i trading a future first over our current one

Well, if we are picking at 10 this year i be betting we will.
If it's its 16-17 or 18 then u may well be correct.
We shall see what AMack decides.

 

[Larry Donohue]

How about we start the Bailey Smith trade negotiations by offering pick 94...

Steep

 

[Gunf]

Well, if we are picking at 10 this year i be betting we will.
If it's its 16-17 or 18 then u may well be correct.
We shall see what AMack decides.

For us to have pick 10 we will have to fall in a heap and lose all 3 remaining games and even then with compo picks for FA it will still probably be 12ish

I am thinking before FA and other bullshit we will probably have pick 12-16

 

[cats_09]

Steep

There's reason to the madness and I think a couple have picked up on the suggestion