2011 Ladder Predictions - Part 2

[BuffDog]

1. Collingwood Not the most talented bunch but gee they work well together as a team. the pies are still very young and have a steady stream of great prospects coming through, top 4 is certain and a flag will mean pies, blues bombers 16 each. Interesting.

2. Western Bulldogs Some old deadwood has left and this may be the last chance for the Doggies. Need to gel as a team and prove their worth in finals - will be desperate.

3. Hawthorn This team has outstanding talent though not much depth. Renouf and schoenmakers would not get a game at Collingwood, their weakness is definatley a leaky defense though their great midfield and forwards should ensure a top 4 or 8 finish.

4. St Kilda Will be sad if the Saints don't win a flag with their current list and will be desperate to do so. Depth is questionable and their gameplan is vulnerable, however their is still much talent and the Saints should finish comfortably in the top 8.

5. Sydney I am not sure why Sydney are always underrated. The Swans have a good mix of experienced players and youngsters including hannebery, jetta, jack and others. The Swans will make the SCG a fortress and can push for top 4 however the flag is still out of reach.

6. Melbourne The list is talent galore and an easy draw should ensure a positive finish for the Dees. The question is consistency as young sides do struggle which may halt Melbourne from pushing deep into September. Jack Watts needs to prove he is a no.1 draft pick.

7. Geelong All good things come to an end and i'm afraid it may be time for Geelong, look at Brisbane 2005+. The players have all experienced great success and im not sure the passion will still be there. Quality players should keep Geelong around for a few years.

8. Carlton There is definatley talent at Carlton though the team is too inconsistent. Mids are great however defence and forwards are questionable, need to recruit well soon to fill the gaps before they are a real contender.

9. Fremantle I feel bad placing the Dockers here as I want them to be successful, however i don't think 2011 will be as good a year as its predecessor. Injurys have already struck and the team is still very young, im hoping they can make the eight but if they don't they will bounce back and contend in 2012.

10. North Melbourne The team is beginning to look more solid and have some outstanding young talent in the midfield. Forwards are suspect and the team needs to be more competitive against top sides.

11. Adelaide There is quality in the list but it will be difficult to adjust with many experienced players departed. Was inconsistent last year and also needs to improve their goalkicking.

12. Port Adelaide Very middle of the road, list is not that bad yet not that good. Have good prospects such as Hartlett, Gray and Boak and also have a pretty solid defence. Other players such as Westhoff and Motlop have to step up.

13. Richmond Yes they will improve, yes they have talent but they won't be as good as others are predicting. Many people on BF (besides tiger fans) are acting like Richmond will be the second coming! Midfield is great however defence is crappy and forwards will struggle if Rielwoldt goes down. Still a few years before they are contenders.

14. Gold Coast There is enough experience and talent in the team to win some games. Will be good at home and poor away, young players will drop off as the season progresses.

15. Essendon Have good KPP stocks and a promising defence, gameplan will be changed and the Bombers need to adjust before improvement occurs. Need a few early draft picks devoted to good midfielders then they should contend in a few years.

16. West Coast I don't see much promise in the list and they won't contend for a while yet. Worsfold needs to go and a rebuild needs to occur, hopefully their young players can improve and become great.

17. Brisbane Drafting blunders by Crazy Vossy has meant the end of the tunnel is nowhere in sight for Brissy. Brown and Fev need to play well, however with many players departing much of the work is on the youngsters shoulders, hopefully players like Rockliff, Cornelius, Polec and Rich improve and lead Brisbane to the promised land.

 

[The Donners]

Just a bit. .. unless there is wood-rot in the club and they need a clean start they would be best off extending Worsfold for another 2years. .. The guy has shown at both Wet Toast and the Blues that he can develop youth (Cousins/Kerr/Gardiner drug issues aside). .. They should use him to develop their next list and then clean slate it, move him on, when on the rise again. ..

Sorry which Blues and West Coast youth did he help develop? Chris Judd???

 

[Claypigeon]

Sorry which Blues and West Coast youth did he help develop? Chris Judd???

He was the development coach at Carlton and we had some good youth coming out of the reserves before he went back to the West. .. not the only reason but Carlton went backward after he left. ..

 

[The Donners]

He was the development coach at Carlton and we had some good youth coming out of the reserves before he went back to the West. .. not the only reason but Carlton went backward after he left. ..

Wouldn't good youth turn into good players if well developed?

 

[Blue and Silver]

Wouldn't good youth turn into good players if well developed?

Left just before the Pagan recycled player phase when all the youth was stripped away.

I think that is right anyway, fellow bluebaggers are probably better acquainted with the scenario

 

[indieswan96]

Just on this assumption that a bottom 4 team from last year will make the finals next year as has happened in the past I think this year it's will be too tough for them to come close.

If you look at the Top 8 this year in terms of where they are in terms to their peak you would have it something like this:

Collingwood - Are a young team and all of their main players will be on the improve other than maybe Swan and Maxewell. They have not peaked yet.

St Kilda - They have been the ever present force in the AFL for the last 4 years and despite being on the old side you would think they have 1 year left of challenging for the flag. If they win, will decide whether they have peaked.

Geelong - Looking pretty vulnerable with their best player and coach of 10 years gone but still have a plethora of stars in the backline and midfield. Injuries will play a key role in whether they can stay top 4. They have Peaked.

Western Bulldogs - It will be an interesting year for the Dogs with many stating their premiership window has passed them but aggressive recruiting means they should be Top 4. They have peaked.

Sydney - This should be a consolodating year for the Swans and their goal for the year should be to make the finals. With their midfield on the rise and solid forward line and defence they should achieve this. They have not peaked.

Fremantle - A very young side who were the team to make the jump from Bottom 4 to finals last year and the only concern being support for Super Pav we can comfortably say they have not peaked.

Hawthorn - An interesting issue on their peak performance with some arguing they may have peaked back in 2008 and got their premiership. I think they on a day are the most dangerous team in the comp and should make finals. They have not peaked... I think.

Carlton - The team is young everywhere and only problem is that they are very reliant on one Chris Judd. If he were to go down, there would be big problems for Carlton but once again a team on the rise. They have not peaked.

As I have said here the problem for teams outside the 8 is that only Geelong and maybe the Bulldogs have peaked and will probably decline. Sydney, Fremantle, Carlton and Hawthorn are all teams with their best ahead of them.

When you see the bottom four in terms of their relevance to their gap to the top 8 there is huge difference.

West Coast - I would not discount them from escaping the bottom 4 but a team lacking in so many areas is just not going to be able to challenge the top teams.

Richmond - If a bottom 4 team was going to make the finals I would say the Tigers are the best chance and I am expecting them to make big improvements.

Essendon - My wooden spoon tip ATM, this side is in seirous trouble in the midfield. They have excellent ruckman and a promising spine but that's useless if your midfield is getting smashed week in week out. They have next to 0 chance of making the finals.

Brisbane - See above. But they do have J Brown and Black who are class and will win them a few games.

As for the Adelaide, Port, Melbourne and North Melbourne. All of them could lay a claim to making the Top 8 and in terms of likelihood to make the 8 I would have it like this:

1. Adelaide
2. Melbourne
3. North
4. Port

Having said of all of this my ladder prediction is this:

1. Collingwood
2. St Kilda
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Fremantle
-----------------------------------
5. Hawthorn
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Carlton
-----------------------------------
9. Adelaide
10. Melbourne
11. North Melbourne
12. Port Adelaide
----------------------------------

13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. West Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Essendon

 

[Parallel Andy]

From memory i think it is once since 1990.

That might not definitively prove anything but it does show my scenario is far more likely than yours.

The top 4 hasn't been stable at all as i have already pointed out. One team virtually every year misses making it again.

Nowhere did i say that Essendon will make the top 4 and they won't but they are a chance to fall into the eight but will most likely win around 10 games and miss.

It won't happen.
The gap between the top and bottom has widened of the last few years.
Which of the bottom 8 teams do you think are a chance for top 4?

10 games for Essendon? Id they win more than 6 I'll be surprised.
Essendon will not fall into the eight, fall into last position maybe.

 

[Parallel Andy]

But didn't bigfooty say Freo were destined for the bottom 4 in 2010, and if you put them in the top 8, let alone top 4, you were deluded?

I am not bigfooty.

 

[SirJimi05]

It won't happen.
The gap between the top and bottom has widened of the last few years.
Which of the bottom 8 teams do you think are a chance for top 4?

10 games for Essendon? Id they win more than 6 I'll be surprised.
Essendon will not fall into the eight, fall into last position maybe.

Adelaide. Carlton might and they only just snuck into the 8 this year.

I am not bigfooty.

But are you part of the groupthink mentality that is rife on this site? I'm thinking you are.

 

[SirJimi05]

Having said of all of this my ladder prediction is this:

1. Collingwood
2. St Kilda
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Fremantle
-----------------------------------
5. Hawthorn
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Carlton
----------------------------------
16. Brisbane
17. Essendon

You've really gone out on a limb with your ladder. You should be commended for showing such foresight and originality.

 

[Parallel Andy]

Adelaide. Carlton might and they only just snuck into the 8 this year.



But are you part of the groupthink mentality that is rife on this site? I'm thinking you are.

Adelaide is very unlikely. Anything is possible, but most unlikely. Probably sneak into the eight.

You will find that people either form their own opinions on here, or lack the intelligence to do so and move with the crowd. I have no need to move with the crowd.

 

[Wernumberone]

It won't happen.
The gap between the top and bottom has widened of the last few years.
Which of the bottom 8 teams do you think are a chance for top 4?

10 games for Essendon? Id they win more than 6 I'll be surprised.
Essendon will not fall into the eight, fall into last position maybe.

I go back to my original post.

You say this is if you are the all knowing God of who does what.

It's all very well for you and everyone else to have opinions but you say it as if it is fact yet history shows us that it happens over 90% of the time.

So you are saying that you know better than history?

If that gap between top and bottom has widened as you say, lets say top four to bottom four, then why do teams keep jumping in and and falling out?

I will answer it for you.

It's because of variables. The unknowns, the things out of the hands of the clubs and in the hands of the footy Gods, of which you are not one, albeit that will be a shock to you.

Essendon won 7 games last year.

Could we win less, certainly. Is it likely, nope.

I have no idea who will make the top 4 from the bottom 8 i only know that it is over 90% more likely that one team will.

I will bump this thread at the appropriate time.

 

[Knight Ryders]

Adelaide is very unlikely. Anything is possible, but most unlikely. Probably sneak into the eight.

You will find that people either form their own opinions on here, or lack the intelligence to do to and move with the crowd. I have no need to move with the crowd.

You might want to take a quick look at Adelaide's fixture and how they finished off last year. Dead cert for the 8 this year if injuries aren't ridiculous (of which they were last year for the Crows).

Collingwood and the Saints are the only 2 teams (imo) who would seriously worry most teams. All other teams would think they are a serious chance to beat all others, even the shitful, ordinary, E-grade Essendon midfield.

 

[Supishnessism]

Predictions for 2011 (excuse misspelt player names)

(1-2: Pies and Saints)

Collingwood - Assuming they don't have a premiership hangover ala Hawks 08, natural improvement should see them retain a firm grip on top spot. That being said a lot depends on whether other sides can work out their tactics (again like the Hawks of 08). If this happens, their list will have to improve to remain top.

Saints - In terms of an even list the Saints still rank pretty highly for mine, need to sure up their KPD's to challenge for a flag, although Dawson should improve. Also need to play Kosi deep to be a real threat in the front half. Midfield pace may be an issue against real fast sides, but i think sheer grit and determination will see them near the peak again.

(3-6: Freo, Carlton, Geelong, Western Bulldogs)

Freo - If their kids stand up the sky is the limit for them. With this in mind, if injuries cruel their top end talent (Pav, Sandi, McPharlin) then they will be up against it. A real wildcard team.

Carlton - Will need the likes of Gibbs, Murphy, McLean to make some big strides, but if they do they could be very dangerous. Unlike previous years the deficiencies in the squad are harder to find and depth is starting to develop. Questions remain on KP's both forward and back, but if Henderson, Austin and Bower can remain injury free and continue to develop, the blues should be strong enough to push for top 4.

Cats - Alot will depend on how much their top end talent lose in terms of pace and touch. The loss of Ablett wont be as massive as many think, but age in the legs of Bartel, Chapman, Ling, Kelly and Corey just might. Whether their defense can continue to stand up to the pace of modern footy may also be a concern. For them to have a tilt at another flag, guys like Hawkins, Blake, Lonergan and Varcoe to really stand up and play consistent footy.

Bulldogs - i cant help but feel the Dogs attitude towards the last couple of years at the trade table might hurt them this year. They've shipped in some real talent through the draft, but Wallis and Libba will need a few years to click with the rigors of AFL. I think that for 2011 they will struggle with drop off's in key areas, particularly up forward. Bazza hits the twilight of his career, and theyve lost alot of experience in goalkicking midfields (Eagleton, Aka, etc.) For them to push further up that ladder they will need massive years from Boyd, Cross, Cooney and Lake. Key injuries to any of those players could spell disaster. Keeping Morris and Griffin in good form (and on the park) will also determine where they finish in 2011. For mine the drop from the top end to the bottom end is just too large for a genuine flag push.

(7-10: Melbourne, Sydney, North, Hawks)

Melbourne - An exciting young side who should defiantly improve on last season. More games into Scully, Trengrove, Grimes, and Morton will see some improvement. I really hope that Green, Jamar and Davey can remain at the top of their games for the Dee's seasons sake. Frawley and co have developed a good standard int he back half, its only up front where there are real issues. That being said, if Watts turns into what was thought of him when drafted, with Jurrah and Wonamirri in the same forward half, they will be dangerous.

North - It may not be 2011, but certainly by 2013 they will have an outstanding side. Well coached and always bringing in absolute quality, for mine they've been the best drafting and trading side the last 2 seasons. Their result in 2011 will depend on how much their younger guys step up, guys like Swallow, Adams, Zeibell, Anthony, Hansen and Greenwood are real unknowns in terms of how much they will improve. Structural issues upfront and injuries to key backs will certainly hurt early season, but by seasons end they will show real improvement. The only thing they lack is real Top End talent, with the likes of harvey and Rawlings getting older. May be the Freo of 2010.

Swans - Always an impressive unit, but may take times coming to terms with a new coach and captain. As odd as this sounds, losing two great leaders in Kirk and Roos will take its toll. The development of Hannebry, Jack, Mumford and White will be good for them, but questions remain over how long the Bolton's and Goodes can remain at the level their currently at. A lot will depend on teams abilities to shut down their run off of HB. At times last year it seemed that if sides could shut out Kenelly, Shaw, Mattner and Malceski they could stop the swans.

Hawks - I always seem to overrate the Hawks around this time of year, so im holding back a little with my prediction for them this season. On paper they still have the weapons to tear sides apart, but realistically a slow midfield and underwhelming backline will hurt them. Improvements to key posts such as Stratton, Gilham and Shoenmakers should help sure this up, but i cant see them matching it consistently with much faster precision football sides.

This is where i feel the league really drops off. Potential any of the teams above could play finals, and all bar perhaps melbourne and north would be confident in winning finals, but i cant see any of the teams below getting remotely close.

(11 - 13: Tigers, Bombers, Adelaide)
Richmond: Improvments to young guys such as Cotchin, Martin, Graham, Post and Vickery will probably determine their finishing position. No doubt an injury free Foley and a firing Newman and Delidio will lead them to winning games, but a full team effort from their younger players will lead to consistency. Grigg and Houli will inject some larger bodies into the middle, but both have questions over their disposal and application. Their front half seems a bit of a puzzle at the moment, with JR the only real target, and the puzzling suggestion to a move to half forward. They should win more games than last year, but again it may be a year of a lack of performance across the board, as many young teams would know all too well.

Essendon: The bombers meteoric rise to the top may be coming, but 2011 isnt it. Their spine is looking great for the future, but it seems more a 2012/3 break out than a 2011 one. And in the middle their are real question marks (as with previous years) as to who will help Jobe Watson. they have their battlers, Stanton is one who i always feel for as he lacks consistency, but all their other great hopes are still very young and raw. I dont doubt guys like Melksham and Hardingham, and certainly Heppell will see their midfield take some strides, but its not an engine room that will break games at this stage. As the past couple of seasons have shown, and i believe the next one will follow suit, too much will be left to too few.

Adelaide: Their an interesting team, i certainly dont see a massive lack of quality, but they will take time develop no doubt. The idea of Otten and Davis in the same backline is imposing, but theyre both still young and will be monstered at times. Up front they seem menacing but it has to be noted that Walker, Tippett and Proplesia all have consistency concerns (although Porp's are more injury related than anything). They just seem like an overly tall and slow side across the park. Its not that theyre not talented but theyre dreaming if they think they can carry Jacobs, Tippett Rutten and Maric in the same side and not be exposed. Thier midfield depth is also a problem. Hopefully Sloan and Douglas and Martin can all continue to build on solid platforms theyve built for themselves, but in terms of 2011 they wont be able to match the big guns.

(14-15: Gold Coast, West Coast)
Gold Coast: Obviously the toughest team to judge. They're finish will depend on how well they gel as a unit. They have some good top end talent, and some real good kids who will make waves from day 1 (not just Swallow, i really like the look of Dixon) but they cant realistically expect Ablett, some solid B grades like Harbrow and Brown, and a bunch of kids to be a major first year threat.

West Coast: Really need some improvement out of the 3-4 year group, it began towards the end of last year and it needs to continue now. They have the prototype players to make an impact, if they can get them all playing good football then the eagles will win games. Key posts down back still look like a struggle, and a lack of polished ball users is what has consistently let them down, but these things can and should improve. The only way is up for the Eagles.

(16-17: Port and Brisbane)
Port Adelaide: I can only look at Port's supposed best 22 and wonder how any port fan can get excited for the season ahead. Their key backs are solid, infact i would think by the time the years out Carlisle and Chaplin will be considered one of the better FB CHB combo's going around, but everywhere else theyre treading wafer thin. They have one ruckman in Borgan who at his best is begining to struggle, due to his age and injuries. All his underlings are recently untried. Their fans will preach that Trangrove will be the saviour but he cant play Ruck, Key Back and Key Forward all at once. Their midfield lacks depth with the Cornes' on the outer due to age, and Boak is their only real star, Cassissi is a good footballer, but he doesnt really break games as they need him to. Their forward line is a true rabble. Grey is a quality player, but will have to move to the middle to cover a lack of depth, leaving no real targets up their. Shultz is coming off of a good year but isn't exaclty a key forward in his own right. Westhoff is a plodder, and Hitchcock and Stewart need to show some consistency before they can carry the their share of the goalkicking. Motlop is an unknown, but i highly doubt he will shoot back to his 08/9 form. It will be a tough year for the power, i pnly hope the fans see it through and they can get their crowds up, an empty AAMI stadium is a depressing sight.

Brisbane: Sometimes im not sure if Voss knows what he's doing at the helm of the Lions. Theyre big names are a year older, their up and comers have all deserted them, and their is a massive gap between their 1st and 22nd picked players, far too big for an AFL side. Im not a nay sayer on some of voss recruiting as others are i think all of Staker, Buchanan and Maguire have been solid performers on their days, but who they've lost is what's really going to hurt them. Crouch under your desk and cover your heads Lions fans, this years going to be a rough one.

 

[The Smaller Warrior]

Any opinion on the likes of Hartlett and Boak Supishnessism? Or even Banner/Broadbent.

 

[Parallel Andy]

It's all very well for you and everyone else to have opinions but you say it as if it is fact yet history shows us that it happens over 90% of the time.

If that gap between top and bottom has widened as you say, lets say top four to bottom four, then why do teams keep jumping in and and falling out?

Essendon won 7 games last year.

Could we win less, certainly. Is it likely, nope.

I will bump this thread at the appropriate time.

History is not proof of anything.

Btw the top 4 has been the same the past two years.
Not saying that I expect this to be the case this year, but I do expect the vacated positions to be taken by teams from the top eight.
For example Hawthorn, Fremantle and Carlton.

It is also very likely that Essendon will win less than 7 games.
From where I sit most of the other teams have gone past them.

You do all the bumping you like, I'm sure you won't find a need to though.

 

[SirJimi05]

You will find that people either form their own opinions on here, or lack the intelligence to do so and move with the crowd. I have no need to move with the crowd.

It is also very likely that Essendon will win less than 7 games.
From where I sit most of the other teams have gone past them.

Okey Andy.

 

[Parallel Andy]

You might want to take a quick look at Adelaide's fixture and how they finished off last year. Dead cert for the 8 this year if injuries aren't ridiculous (of which they were last year for the Crows).

Collingwood and the Saints are the only 2 teams (imo) who would seriously worry most teams. All other teams would think they are a serious chance to beat all others, even the shitful, ordinary, E-grade Essendon midfield.

Don't disagree with you there, I think they might have a slow start again though. I actually don't really rate Adelaide as in a flag chance. I still think Geelong will cause headaches. Likewise Freo and Hawthorn.

 

[Parallel Andy]

Okey Andy.

Don't you hate it when someone else's opinion is different to yours.

 

[Rioli magic]

1. Bulldogs
2. Collingwood
3. St Kilda
4. Hawthorn
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
9. Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. North Melbourne
12. Port Adelaide
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Brisbane
16. West Coast
17. Essendon

 

[Supishnessism]

Any opinion on the likes of Hartlett and Boak Supishnessism? Or even Banner/Broadbent.

Boak will certainly be a star, (if not already) and from what ive seen will carry that midfield for a few years.

As a carlton fan i know all too well the frustration of having a Hartlett on the list. Hamish is super talented from what ive seen, and one of the smoother movers ive seen playing live. Its all about keeping him on the park, he needs to string a couple of injury free seasons (and full preseasons) to really show his worth. Port fans just need to be patient with him.

Im more a fan of Broadbent than i am of Banner at this stage, and if he develops he could be what port is looking for in terms of helping Dom Cassisi in and under.

I would certainly like to see Primus blood some of these younger guys in the midfield as early as possible, because realistically i dont see port vying for the flag this year, or while either the of the Cornes boys are still playing. (Rodan may just hold on long enough, i can still see some quality footy in him if the knee's hold up.) and the more experience these guys can get the better they will be for it. Certainly you dont want to break them (both i nbody and spirit) but there is a decent enough network of Boak, Cassisi, Rodan, Salopek to make sure their not being relied upon as lynchpin midfielders.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

ABout 95% of neutrals reckon Essendon is a dead certainty for bottom 4 and many of these have them in the bottom 2.

I look forward to all these people praising James Hird's coaching if they finish outside the bottom 4 this season.

But Hird is a terrible coach and Essendon are an awful team. If he manages to take them to say 12th, people will surely have to acknowledge that he did a great job, given how dire the list is.

You've really gone out on a limb with your ladder. You should be commended for showing such foresight and originality.

**** you're a bit of a princess aren't you? I've never seen a poster who bites so fast, you just can't hack the idea that most people don't rate your Bombers.

They finished 14th in 2010 and all things being equal they're a really good chance to finish around that mark again. There's the possibility that they could surprise of course, but if you're so offended by anyone who predicts they'll be in the bottom 4 again then this thread probably isn't for you.

 

[pjcrows]

Collingwood
Geelong
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Sydney
St Kilda
North Melbourne

Adelaide
Carlton
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Essendon

 

[Blues_Man]

That's a weird comment from someone who joined the site two months ago i.e 13 months after me. And has already racked up a yellow card inside that time.

Which part of my post do you object to?

The part where you list your team as Port ...only an bummer troll using an alias could ever place them 7th this year .

 

[Deep Blue]

BigFooty is the only place they aren't over rated. And we all know BigFooty can have a tendancy to overcompensate so yeah, they may be under rated on this site.

I tried to clarify that a few posts later, I think they are massively over rated by the media and punditry. They are a classic example of a side relying too much on too few.

Saying that, I noticed that after whingeing about the over rated comment, you went on to place them 3rd in your ladder..

Noticed you had Hawks top and Blues 10th - big turnaround from last year! I might be optimistic about us coming 3rd behind yourselves (reckon we'll surprise though with our depth - lot of rapidly developing youngsters and a few mature players recently recruited that will add to the mix, relatively injury-free list going into the season, and a coaching staff under the pump), but I certainly don't think we'll drop to 10th!