2011 Ladder Predictions - Part 2

[year of the cat]

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Adelaide
4. St Kilda
5. Fremantle
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Hawthorn
8. Sydney
------------------------
9. Carlton
10. Melbourne
11. North Melbourne
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. Port Adelaide
15. West Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast Suns

Premiers: Geelong
Norm Smith: Jimmy Bartel
Brownlow: Joel Selwood
Coleman: Lance Franklin
Rising Star: David Swallow

 

[Suma Magic]

Yet you place them 5th?

Don't play be the rules.

But you're right, I did contradict myself. I rate them, but still find it funny how insecure they are about outside perception.

 

[Prodigious]

North fans on these threads are painful, desperately seeking someone to tell them they think they have a talented list.

As the old saying goes, if you have to tell people you're important, then you're not.

 

[SpaceCow]

1. Collingwood
2. St Kilda
3. Geelong
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Fremantle
6. Carlton
7. Hawthorn
8. Sydney
------------------------
9. Adelaide
10. Melbourne
11. North Melbourne
12. Port Adelaide
13. Essendon
14. Richmond
15. Gold Coast Suns
16. Brisbane
17. West Coast

 

[Leg End]

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Sydney Swans
4. Western Bulldogs
5. St Kilda
6. Fremantle
7. Hawthorn
8. Carlton
------------------------
9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. Richmond
12. Port Adelaide
13. Melbourne
14. North Melbourne
15. Gold Coast Suns
16. Brisbane
17. West Coast

Watch the Swans. Terrible injuries in 2010 meant numerous youngsters were blooded - and got some finals experience. Bradshaw, Jesse White, Dennis-lane being fed by Goodes, Jack, O'keeffe - great prospects for 2011.

as for the "youth potential" of other clubs - Richmond and Melbourne seem to have been building up for 6 years. It's time to perform - not just build.

 

[HeHateMe]

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Sydney Swans
4. Western Bulldogs
5. St Kilda
6. Fremantle
7. Hawthorn
8. Carlton
------------------------
9. Adelaide


Watch the Swans. Terrible injuries in 2010 meant numerous youngsters were blooded

The same can be said for Adelaide, Fremantle, St Kilda and Carlton.
swans can make top 4 but there in the same boat as the above teams.

 

[Eth]

Melbourne seems to have been building up for 3 years.

efa.

6efas

 

[Defacto]

1 St Kilda
2 Collingwood
3 Adelaide
4 Geelong
5 North Melbourne
6 Melbourne
7 Western Bulldogs
8 Sydney
------------------------
9 Hawthorn
10 Fremantle
11 Carlton
12 Richmond
13 Port Adelide
14 Essendon
15 Gold Coast
16 Brisbane
17 West Coast

 

[mehow2g]

Each to their own but lol at Essendon on most ladders, hird aint playing boys.

 

[Jade]

Time for a 2011 prediction me thinks. My 2011 ladder had some misses - Had Collingwood seventh, Freo 15th , and Adelaide for the flag

But had some fairly accurate hits as well - Had Hawthorn in eighth, Carlton in tenth (neither were far off) and predicted Geelong would begin a slide.

1. Collingwood
Seems like a cop out to predict the reigning premier at number one, but to be honest who else is there?

Strengths: Midfield is exceptional, and ruck division is very bloody good. Team is incredibly even, and probably more importantly game plan is very, very good. Run down pressure style done as a team is incredibly effective, and disposal skills are very good. Young list that is already performing, best players are all at an age that would suggest they won't make a dramatic fall next year.

Weaknesses: I still see holes in the side - number one target in Cloke is far exceeded by others such as Reiwoldt and Franklin, defensive posts are poorer than a few sides. Despite the apparent depth, an injury to Swan, Jolly, Cloke or Maxwell would severely test the side in those areas.

Verdict: Whilst I strongly disagree with the assertion by some that Collingwood are amongst the best teams of the last 15-20 years, it’s hard to fault the list and game plan, and even harder to find a suitable challenger. Premiers again for me - God help us if they get to sixteen...

2. Fremantle
*ducks* Come on, is it really that hard to see Freo improve enough to overtake the Cats, Dogs and Saints?

Strengths: Sandilands is nigh on unbeatable in the ruck, Pavlich is an absolute superstar. Midfield is very effective and Fremantle have gotten more out of recent draftees then most clubs, indicating significant improvement is still possible.

Weaknesses: Running half backs are very good, but KPP are still a problem. If a team is able to break even in the middle, it can put pressure on the back half. Overly reliant on Sandilands, injury would be devastating. And finally, the GF DOES have to be played on the MCG.

Verdict: Quick, snappy side with a dominant ruckman and a hell of a lot of upside. Better performances on the road in 2010, and were only one win from a top four finish. Only way is up I think.

3. Western Bulldogs
Can you still call third a bridesmaid? The also-rans of the last few years will 'also-run' again...

Strengths: Very quick side that can move the ball just as quickly. Solid midfield stocks including one of the games best in Cooney and a great supporting cast. Barry Hall and Brain Lake are exceptional KPPs. Excellent draft period in 2010, good mix of youth and experience.

Weaknesses: Injury to Hall is devastating to forward line. Injury to Lake is even worse for the backline. Ruck stocks are sketchy, relying on ball winners to take the ball from a contest instead of clear advantage. Tendency to implode when faced with high quality opposition. Vulnerable to quick movement of the ball.

Verdict: Whilst it's hard to fault the side too much, it continues to fall at the last hurdle for a reason - it's best is not good enough for a flag. A lack of ruck strength means that the midfield is required to win the ball, and when faced with an equal or superior midfield they are beaten. Another season oh-so-close but so-bloody-far....

4. St Kilda
Not many teams would have won as many games as these guys over the last two years and not jag a flag. Kind of feel sorry for them.

Strengths: Outstanding ball winning midfield, Lenny Hayes does NOT get the credit he deserves. Best key position forward in the league. Strong ruck division, exceptional team orientated defense. Brendan Goddard might be the best all round player in the league.

Weaknesses: Over reliance on Reiwoldt, Kosi just does not consistently perform. Best players (with the exception of Goddard) are far too close to thirty for comfort. Undeniable ability to implode at the pointy end of the season. Inability to adapt to changes in a game.

Verdict: Where does the improvement in this side come from? Goddard played out of his freakin skin and still couldn't get them over the line (where is the Norm Smith douches?). Its a very good side, but those windows don't stay open for long and I get the feeling the Saints have missed theirs.

5. Geelong
Welcome to the OTHER side of the mountain Cats.

Strengths: Outstanding depth of midfield talent despite the loss of Ablett. Disposal of the ball is elite, has been for years. A well oiled machine that knows how to, and is used to winning games of football.

Weaknesses: No Ablett - losses like that can't be covered, no matter how badly you want to. Relatively weak forward line - a fact glossed over by the utter dominance enjoyed by its midfield. Lack of leg speed, little development of youth. Aging list.

Verdict: It happens to all the great ones. When you are on top, the end seems so far away and then all of a sudden its there. In their heart of hearts I believe most Cats fans realise its over. Quality in the side won’t let them slip too far too quickly, but slip they will.

6. Hawthorn
They can win a final – much as it pains me...

Strengths: Top few players match the best in the league. Franklin, Rioli and Hodge are all stars. Midfield is very strong, plenty of ball winning capacity. Can score heavily. Mature bodies for a reasonably young side. Excellent on-field leadership. Plenty of X-Factor.

Weaknesses: Poor back half, a break even midfield will normally result in a loss to the Hawks. Heavy reliance on Franklin to control the 50m arc. Questionable ruck division. On the spot coaching (ability to adapt to a changing game) is poor.

Verdict: Its best is very good. When the midfield fires and Franklin is up and about they are very hard to beat. But whilst its midfield is strong, it is not the strongest in the league and once beaten, so are the Hawks.

7. Sydney
Has a team ever done so well out of recycled players?
Strengths: Capacity to shut down opposition sides is very good. Even spread of contributors. Dis-proportionate ground is a definite home field advantage. Good personnel flexibility.

Weaknesses: Large grounds such as the MCG are vastly different to the SCG. Best players are aging. Heavy reliance on Adam Goodes. Leg speed through middle is questionable. Poor defensive line (masked by capacity to win the hard ball).

Verdict: Sydney are not a premiership threat, nor are they are terrible side. They are middle of the pack with the advantage of the SCG likely to win a couple of games.

8. Richmond
Yes shock horror. The Tigers.

Strengths: Outstanding young midfield talent. Good up and coming KPP stocks including the reigning Coleman medallist. Well coached with genuine belief in ability.

Weaknesses: Under developed ruck division, over reliance on Reiwoldt. Smaller bodies in midfield. They are Richmond.

Verdict: One thing Richmond have done better then Melbourne, is maintain some larger bodies going into 2011. They won’t be as easily pushed around. Record for second half of 2010 was pretty good. Might surprise.

9. Essendon
Best is pretty good, have beaten some very good sides recently. Just need to level out.

Strengths: Very strong ruck division, possibly strongest in the league. Excellent KPP prospect stocks at both ends of the grounds. Plenty of leg speed. X-Factor and capacity to defeat highly fancied opponents. No Knights.

Weaknesses: Poor midfield with the exception of Watson. Younger list needing game time. Poor disposal at times. Few options for running off half back.

Verdict: Deplorable second half of 2010 should not mask the depth of talent on the list. Consistency naturally comes with game time and Essendon has several best 22 players approaching the 50-100 game mark. Can win games.

10. North Melbourne
Mundane side perhaps experiencing a false dawn.

Strengths: Strong midfield prospects with great leadership potential. Excellent on field leadership through senior players. Good leg speed.

Weaknesses: Poor KPP stocks. Midfield talent is largely young. Questionable ability to kick a winning score.

Verdict: A little over excited about finishing ninth, but cast your eye at the percentage and this is a team that gets pumped when it loses. Is building a solid list that needs some KPPs. Not going to be a significant force in 2011.

11. Carlton
Where is the improvement coming from?

Strengths: Very good midfield on the attack. Reasonable ruck division. Some good KPP prospects.

Weaknesses: Poor defensive team setup and mindset. KPPs do not match midfield in development. Poor coach.

Verdict: Very much a middle of the road side. Midfield has the strength to win it games, but teams that run off of half back counter them with such ease I’m surprised it isn’t done more often. Will win some, will lose some.

12. Melbourne
I think they’ve gone too far with getting rid of the larger bodies.

Strengths: Classy midfield, though a little on the young side. Very good defensive posts. Reasonable ruck division and plenty of room for improvement

Weaknesses: Far too many small bodies in the team, too reliant on younger stars to stand up to an entire season. Poor forward prospects (Watts included). Potential loss of valuable leadership skills.

Verdict: Went one or two players too far in culling the list I think. This will be a good side no doubt, but geez they are going to cop a battering in 2011. Just hope they don’t suffer any long term injuries because of it.

13. Port Adelaide
Who?

Strengths: Mid-sized forwards look the goods at the moment. Good defensive prospects. Youngish list with plenty of room for improvement. Midfield has some star quality (though sparing). Reasonable ruck division.

Weaknesses: Lack of quality tall forwards. Only moderate leg speed. Poor disposal.

Verdict: I’ll happily fess up and say I know little about Ports prospects next year. I picked them reasonably well last year, and nothing I’ve seen tells me we are in for a dramatic improvement in 2011.

14. Adelaide
All that experience gone has got to hurt.

Strength: Excellent KPP prospects, especially forward. Young talented midfield. Good leg speed.

Weaknesses: Lack of experience, poor defensive prospects. Lack of crumbing small forwards.

Verdict: I picked them for the flag last year (shows what my prediction here is worth). But considering how poorly they performed in 2010, combined with the loss of experience I don’t see an immediate climb for them.

15. Gold Coast
Too young I reckon.

Strengths: Gary Ablett. A host of exceptional young talent. Unknown quantity to most sides.

Weaknesses: Far too young. Little to know forward prospects to speak of.

Verdict: Who the hell knows? I don’t think anyone expects them to win too many, but it is a talented squad. My guess is come 2014 they’ll be the other end of my prediction.

16. West Coast
Daylight at the end of the tunnel is a LONG way away.

Strengths: That damn Frenchman. Strong ruck division.

Weaknesses: Moderate pace in the midfield, very poor key position stocks. Very poor disposal. Young list.

Verdict: An aging Dean Cox, inconsistent Natanui and broken Kerr aren’t conducive to winning games. Will take time and quite a few beatings in 2011.

17. Brisbane
Absolutely GAWN.

Strengths: Young midfield has talent. Sturdy defensive prospects.

Weaknesses: Bloody hell where do you start? A broken forward line, a midfield that will have to be carried by Simon Black, a poor coach, disenchanted players, too many recycled list fillers.

Verdict: Prepare for rock bottom.

 

[Barnzy]

^^

Can't see us finishing any higher than 11th/12th. I think finals are a couple years away yet. Would be nice if your prediction came true though.

 

[The Kipster]

The arrogance of Melbourne supporters is astounding considering how little they have acheieved in the last few years. They are all flocking to these types of the threads and telling every man and his dog that their youth is the best and won't hear anything which says otherwise.

The have effectively tanked for a decade and they are still shite

 

[Joshen]

Long post as above.

While I disagree with some of your predictions its certainly nice to see someone put some thought into a reply and justifies their opinion well. Nice job.

 

[mickctiger]

1. Collingwood
2. Footscray
3. Freemantle
4. St Kilda
5. Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Melbourne
9. Hawthorn
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. North Melbourne
13. Port Adeliade
14. Essendon
15. West Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast Suns

 

[Demonheart]

The have effectively tanked for a decade and they are still shite

We tanked when we played finals?

You need to read up on the meaning of tanking.

 

[bradrowe#32]

1. Collingwood
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. St. Kilda
6. Hawthorn
7. Adelaide
8. Sydney
---------------------
9. Carlton
10. Melbourne
11. North Melbourne
12. Richmond
13. Port Adelaide
14. West Coast
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast
17. Brisbane

 

[winty]

8. geelong - will suffer greatly with no ablett, and certain players with inflated reputations will be exposed

Like who?

5. Geelong
Welcome to the OTHER side of the mountain Cats.

Strengths: Outstanding depth of midfield talent despite the loss of Ablett. Disposal of the ball is elite, has been for years. A well oiled machine that knows how to, and is used to winning games of football.

Weaknesses: No Ablett - losses like that can't be covered, no matter how badly you want to. Relatively weak forward line - a fact glossed over by the utter dominance enjoyed by its midfield. Lack of leg speed, little development of youth. Aging list.

Verdict: It happens to all the great ones. When you are on top, the end seems so far away and then all of a sudden its there. In their heart of hearts I believe most Cats fans realise its over. Quality in the side won’t let them slip too far too quickly, but slip they will.

So we have outstanding depth of midfield talent despite losing Ablett, yet he can't be covered?

As for little development of youth, expect that to change this year. By all reports, Chris Scott won't be playing favourites this season like Bomber has in the past, so we're expecting to see a lot more of the likes of Duncan, Menzel, T.Hunt, Hogan, Gillies and West this year, with the likes of Vardy, Christensen, Smedts and Guthrie possibly debuting as well. I'm hoping several of those players who are given a chance will grab it with both hands and become regulars, a la Blair and Sidebottom at the Pies last year.

 

[Barnzy]

Like who?

Mackie.

 

[Boppo]

A fundamental problem with people predicting an impove in their teams fortunes is that they compare their next squad that runs on to the field with what they know of the opposition in 2010.

All the teams (barring one or two top teams who will slide) will improve on last year and the game will be slightly different again. I was sick of Freo talking up their chances each year and then being blown away by the likes of Essendon, Port Adelaide and Richmond because the club was stuck in a mindset based on the previous 12 months.

Hawks
Pies
Freo
Adelaide
Dogs
Dees
North
Tigers

Port
Sydney
Saints
Cats
Blues
Dons
GC
West Coast
Brisbane

 

[dajesmac]

1) Collingwood
2) Hawthorn
3) W Bulldogs
4) Geelong
5) Fremantle
6) St Kilda
7) Sydney
8) Carlton

9) Adelaide
10) Gold Coast
11) Melbourne
12) North Melbourne
13) Port Adelaide
14) West Coast
15) Richmond
16) Essendon
17) Brisbane Lions

 

[_Christoh_]

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
St Kilda
Geelong
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs

North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Richmond
Melbourne
Sydney
Adelaide
Essendon
West Coast
Brisbane

 

[Jade]

So we have outstanding depth of midfield talent despite losing Ablett, yet he can't be covered?

Yes, you have an outstanding collection of midfield talent.

No, Ablett's loss can not be covered completely.

 

[Meow]

Geez reading through this Thread and the previous one some people are precious when it comes to their teams positioning on the ladder, the clear standouts North and Melbourne supporters.

1. St. Kilda- Everything to play for in 2011.
2. Collingwood- Will be thereabouts.
3. Fremantle- Will take the next step and launch a huge assault on the flag. Hard to see them losing at Subi. My surprise premiership tip and the start of something special for the Dockers.
4. Western Bulldogs- One last failed crack at it.
5. Port Adelaide- 2011's bolter. Bookmark it.
6. Geelong- Yes, as much as it pains me to say it we will slip, hard to see us losing at Skilled though. If I were biased- 2nd.
7. Sydney- Mix of recycled, old and new will produce the usual up and down season for the Swans.
8. Hawthorn- At their best are in the top 4, but when did we last see their best on a consistent basis?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Carlton- Middle of the road side.
10. North Melbourne- Steadily on the way up, but will take time to develop.
11. Melbourne- Steadily improving young talent but have gone too far in removing bigger bodies, leaving some big holes in the side.
12. Adelaide- Lack of experience mean inconsistency, which is what hurt the Crows most in 2010.
13. Richmond- On the rise again, can they deliver this time? Steadily improving but the future looks bright.
14. West Coast- Can do better than what they did in 2010. Must move on from ageing former AA's. Will continue to develop steadily. LeCras to have an outstanding season, taking out the Coleman Medal.
15. Gold Coast- Wow, slow down here on the predictions for the Gold Coast guys. May have some great talent but will take 1-2 seasons to truly bond together as a side and become very competitive. Expect a trial and error season in 2011, good sides are made from learning from mistakes.
16. Essendon- Arguably the worst list in the AFL. Too many list-cloggers.
17. Brisbane Lions- Rock bottom for the Lions in 2011. In the darkest hour, but things will get better with cautious list management. The Voss experiment has clearly and resoundingly failed. Fev to be sacked after yet another off-field indiscretion.

Grand Final: St. Kilda v Fremantle
Premiers: Fremantle
Norm Smith Medal: Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle)
Brownlow Medal: Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Mark LeCras (West Coast)

 

[HolyWars]

Cats (I still think they have what it takes)
Hawks
Pies
Dockers
Saints
Crows
Swans
Dees

Dogs
Power
Blues
Kangaroos
Tigers
Suns
Lions
Eagles
Bombers

 

[The Bomb]

Like who?

So we have outstanding depth of midfield talent despite losing Ablett, yet he can't be covered?
quote]


Put it this way, you lose the best player in the AFL, to replace him you put in a player who only just makes your best 22.