2011 Ladder Predictions - Part 2

[Blueboys7]

What a surprise, the majority of BF are not giving Carlton a spot in the top 8. You all wrote us off last year...just saying.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Pies – There’s no reason why the pies can’t dominate the comp again, they beat their two closest rivals to win the premiership in 2010. You’d expect their youngsters to continue to improve, players like Thomas & Pendles still have plenty of upside themselves, Cloke/Dawes combo could develop into a deadly one. The only possible downfall could be their lack of depth, they’ve shed quite a few players between 2010/11, all it takes is a few injuries to key players at the wrong end of the season and they come back to the pack pretty quickly.
Saints – They have the quality, they have some of the biggest names in the league. Reiwoldt will have a huge year, injury robbed him (and us) of a sensational season in 2010. A lot of players will be burning after the last couple of seasons, it could be their ultimate downfall, or it could spur them to get the best out of themselves during pre-season. There are whispers that the Saints will be going with a more attacking gameplan, I rate Ross as a tactician and believe he’ll be able to develop a gameplan to negate Collingwood. However, 2 successive grand final defeats, off-field dramas that may impact player-relations and questions over their bottom 6, although they should be there for one final crack there are many factors that could play a part.
Hawks – Burgoyne added much needed polish to the Hawks midfield, with a solid pre-season he’ll be amazing for them, they have a decent backline, and if they can get Buddy/Roughead firing they’ll be a dangerous proposition. With an injury-free start to the season they’ll arrive at the finals without having burnt themselves out to get there. Only question mark I have is will they finally play to their potential and put a complete season together? Lets hope so cause they’re a great team to watch.
Swans – I’m probably being optimistic here, but we had 3 pretty big outs in 2010 with injuries to Bradshaw, Bolton & Seaby, compromising all areas of the ground. Craig Bird also missed most of 2010 through injury and will help fill the void left by Kirk’s retirement. Goodes was played out of position in the forward line for a majority of the season and guys like Jetta, Hannebery & Rohan spent 2010 serving somewhat of an apprenticeship and should be better for the experience. Guys like Mumford, Kennedy & McGlynn should further establish themselves in the squad, Jessie White & Trent Dennis lane should benefit from our improving midfield and provide targets up forward, while a fit O’keefe & continually improving Malceski will provide a little more class, and if Keiran Jack continues to improve he’ll be one to watch. The question marks I have revolve around how players will respond to a new coach and gameplan, however I don’t expect wholesale changes to take place so it should be fine. The major concern I have relates to Bradshaw & Bolton, both are at the twilight of their careers and could go down with injuries again, while we can cover Bolton without too much concern, the loss of Bradshaw would leave White & TDL to shoulder much of the load, and while we should be able to fill the void, our forward structure would be compromised and White & TDL are yet to perform consistently over the course of a season.
Cats – The cracks started to appear in 2010. They have quite a few players who are getting on in their careers, have suffered some injuries over the last 2 seasons and would expect more of the same in 2011. The loss of Ablett is HUGE, sure they’ve got midfield depth, and the emergence of players like Varcoe should help plug the gap, but Ablett has won games off his own boot and his determination and drive will be hard to replace. Chapman & Bartell should help, I think Selwood may struggle (could be wrong though) but I think Ling will be exposed, he’s a chink in their armour unfortunately. Scott should be smart enough a coach to move him out of the middle. There have always been question marks over the cats forward line, Mooney’s been very inconsistent at times, Pods kicked bags at Skilled with a superior midfield feeding him the ball but I question how effective he’ll be without that kind of supply, Johnson’s creative but erratic and Hawkins will probably spend more time in the ruck. The kids have had little senior exposure over the last few years which should be telling in 2011. They’ll easily account for the lower ranked sides but could struggle against stiffer competition.
Dockers - I can’t help feel that they’re cursed in some way. Any time they get a taste of finals footy they appear to take a step back the following season. Injuries to Barlow & Morabito will impact them in 2011, I’d assume 2011 will be a write off for Barlow, if he comes back with close to the same impact he had in 2010 I’ll be seriously impressed with his mental toughness. The loss of Tarrant will weaken them defensively, and the heavy reliance on Sandilands is a bit of a worry, he’s been pretty healthy up until this point in his career but the sheer size and weight of his frame make him more susceptible to injury, if he goes down it’ll turn ugly very quickly for freo. It all hinges on Sandiland’s fitness imo, if he goes down for an extended period Freo won’t make the 8.
Blues – We should see some improvement from the Blues from the likes of Gibbs & Murphy, Judd will dominate as always. Kruezer will be a huge in for them, he was in great form before going down with injury and will strengthen their midfield. Their forward line will begin to function better after using 2010 to adjust to the post-Fevola era. The question I have is whether their list will improve more than the others who are just behind them. Unless their prized draft picks come along in 2011, their presence in finals football will be short lived.
Demons – May be the bolters of 2011 or may still be a year off. They have some impressive youngsters who have improved over 2010 and have shown enough to suggest that they’ll take the next step in 2011. Their senior players were also in great form in 2010.
------------------------
the next 3 could all possibly end up somewhere between 5-8 displacing the dockers, blues or demons

Dogs – I may have underrated their list, they’ve got some fresh players coming in and got rid of players who were past their best. The danger here is if Hall goes down, their forward line is gonna look pretty bare. Injuries conspired against the dogs in 2010 after putting the jewel in the crown, but it was a year too late imo
Crows –They’re the great unknown for me, shed a lot of experience over 2010, have some great young players who have shown a lot of promise, but with young players comes inconsistency
Kangaroos – if they don’t make the 8 in 2011 they certainly will in 2012

--------------------------


and the rest have little chance of making finals imo






Power
Tigers
Suns
Bombers
Eagles
Lions

 

[docks]

Collingwood had a lot of players that looked better than they are. I don't think they will sustain their performance.



Not sure how the players looked better than they are?

And as for North's light at the end of the tunnel, they played the top four teams six times last year for six losses with an average losing margin of over 10 goals

 

[Rawhead]

1. St Kilda
2. Dogs
3. Fremantle
4. Geelong
5. Carlton
6. Hawthorn
7. Pies
8. Adelaide
9. Sydney
10. Lions
11. Melbourne
12. North Melbourne
13. Port Adelaide
14. Richmond
15. West Coast
16. Essendon
17. Gold Coast Suns

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Collingwood had a lot of players that looked better than they are. I don't think they will sustain their performance.



Not sure how the players looked better than they are?

And as for North's light at the end of the tunnel, they played the top four teams six times last year for six losses with an average losing margin of over 10 goals

Yeah, the top four will be 10 goals better forever.....

 

[winty]

Put it this way, you lose the best player in the AFL, to replace him you put in a player who only just makes your best 22.

Where have I said one player who was on the fringe of our list will be taking Ablett's spot? I can see us shuffling a few players around in order to pick up the "slack" that Ablett's departure has caused. I can easily see James Kelly getting back into the midfield, especially considering he was labelled as the best midfielder out of the three of him, Ablett and Bartel when he burst onto the scene in 2002, and it was only a broken leg in 2004 and then the inclusion of Selwood in 2007 that saw him move out of the midfield and pinch hit in the backline or on the forward flank, depending on where he was needed due to injuries or suspension.

If we wanted to inject some pace into the midfield, we could play Varcoe in the guts. Depending on whichever player gets the nod, we'll then get a player on the fringe, either Menzel or Duncan if Varcoe plays more midfield, or someone like Taylor Hunt if Kelly gets the go ahead.

It won't be like we'll be giving Ablett's spot to someone relatively unproven like Hogan or Christensen. We'll be giving someone already in the 22 the opportunity to spend more time in the midfield, and giving a youngster who's already shown some potential at senior level an opportunity to cement a spot in the side elsewhere.

 

[Righteo]

Errr "GoTheSwannies" I'm guessing you've been reading too many Kim Hagdorn articles if you think 2011 will be write-off for Barlow.

Out of interest how much do you actually know about hs injury

I agree he's unlikely to play as well as he did last year but he'll still play the majority of games in 11'.

 

[evo]

Collingwood
St Kilda
Fremantle
Bulldogs
Geelong
Hawthorn
Sydney
Carlton

Adelaide
Melbourne
Richmond
North Melbourne
Essendon
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Gold Coast

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Errr "GoTheSwannies" I'm guessing you've been reading too many Kim Hagdorn articles if you think 2011 will be write-off for Barlow.

Out of interest how much do you actually know about hs injury

I agree he's unlikely to play as well as he did last year but he'll still play the majority of games in 11'.

I said "if he comes back with close to the same impact he had in 2010 I’ll be seriously impressed with his mental toughness."...what I meant by that is if he comes back and has the same courage he showed when he sustained the injury I'd be seriously impressed, I don't think many people could sustain an injury like that without it effecting them mentally in the short term... added to that the physical aspect of spending that long on the sidelines, the interruption of his development etc I'd expect it to take him the 2011 season and another pre season before he really gets back to where he was before the injury, that's what I meant by "write-off", perhaps the term was a little strong for what I meant, but if he's able to come back at even 90% in 2011 I'm sure he'll have the respect of alot of people

 

[WCE_phil]

Yeah, the top four will be 10 goals better forever.....

Even if north improves against the current top 4 by 5 goals over the preseason its still 6 losses from 6 matches. you then have to win at the very least 12 from 16 other matches to make the finals.

 

[Clag]

1. Collingwood
2. St Kilda
3. Hawthorn
4. Bulldogs
5. Fremantle
6. Geelong
7. Sydney
8. Melbourne

9. Essendon
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. North Melbourne
13. Port Adelaide
14. Adelaide
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. West Coast

 

[GoTheSwannies]

^^ i think your top 8 may be pretty accurate... i was floating a similar idea before dropping the dogs out... I just feel like it's been the same teams in the top 8 for the last few seasons that something's gotta give...but I think a dramatic shift will occur in 2012/13...

 

[DaveyTrainxpress]

The have effectively tanked for a decade and they are still shite

We played in a grand final in 2000, played finals in 2002, 2004,2005 and 2006 but yes we tanked for a decade...

One year of tanking is fine with me as it brought us Jack Trengove, thanks Jordan Mcmahon and the rest of tigerland

 

[crazywildhorse]

There is a lot of love for Hawthorn getting around. No finals in 2009, barely made the finals 2010, No Key Defender and 'that' ruck division. The team has talent but Clarko without Hardwick and Viney = nothing. I like the Hawks but just can't see top 4 unless Clarko can pull something special together.

Collingwood
Freo
Geelong
St's
WB
Hawthorn
Carlton
Sydney

Mel
Rich
North
Adel
GC
Ess
Bris
Port
WCE

 

[MadMaxx]

Errr "GoTheSwannies" I'm guessing you've been reading too many Kim Hagdorn articles if you think 2011 will be write-off for Barlow.

Out of interest how much do you actually know about hs injury

I agree he's unlikely to play as well as he did last year but he'll still play the majority of games in 11'.

Will have next to Zero pre-season.

How many players do well with no pre-season these days?

 

[cammo78]

Even if north improves against the current top 4 by 5 goals over the preseason its still 6 losses from 6 matches. you then have to win at the very least 12 from 16 other matches to make the finals.

Never use logic with a North Melbourne fan.

 

[MadMaxx]

There is a lot of love for Hawthorn getting around. No finals in 2009, barely made the finals 2010, No Key Defender and 'that' ruck division. The team has talent but Clarko without Hardwick and Viney = nothing. I like the Hawks but just can't see top 4 unless Clarko can pull something special together.

Fair comments CWH.

I think much of the optimism around the Hawks Chances can be summarised to the following points:

1. After a horrible 1-6 start we went 11-3-1 for the remainder of the season, form second only to Collingwood over the same period.

2. Form against Collingwood. Apart from the nasty drubbing we took in Rd 4 (Hawks were in a horrible form slump, and the Pies ran hot), The Hawks won Rd 22 breaking a 9 game winning streak by the Pies. The pies have struggled to contain the Hawks over the last few seasons. they just dont seem to have the right match ups, especially for Buddy. if you are going to succeed in 2011, you will HAVE to get through Collingwood at some stage.

3. Drafting has shored up SOME deficiencies. Hale will improve and add depth to our ruck division, no doubt.. Bruce will give our midfield more flexibility, allowing better rotations, with Hodge to spend more time back to shore up our obvious weaknesses there. And from 09, Burgoyne will start from a fresh fitness base. Note that our improved 11-3-1 form came the same round Burgoyne entered the team. He is a key player in '11.

4. Leon Cameron. Top credentialed assistant to replace the poor performing John Barker (ask Saints Supporters..).

5. Clarkson seeing that we need a Plan B tactics wise. In recent articles, Clarkson has acknowledged a flaw most football watchers could see. The Hawks put all their eggs in the one basket, and tried to repeat the tactics from 08. Obviously, this has been countered by most clubs, and the high running high rotation tactics of 09-10 effectively trumped the cluster. 2011 brings Interchange Caps, designed to slow the game down, so only time will see here.

I'm not THAT bullish about the Hawks this year, but we will win or lose with what happens above the shoulders. The talent is there. We have proven we CAN win a flag with this list. We (arguably) have the most talented top 5 players. It all will come down to application and attitude.

 

[butters78]

kelvin sheedy u must be joking!!! essendon are one of the favorites for the wooden spoon!!!
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. St Kilda
4. Geelong
5. Bulldogs
6. Carlton
7. Fremantle
8. Adelaide

9. Sydney
10. Kangaroos
11. Brisbane
12. Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. West Coast
15. Port
16. Essendon
17. Gold Coast

 

[jimbob7085]

1 - Collingwood
2 - St Kilda
3 - Sydney
4 - Carlton
5 - Brisbane
6 - Adelaide
7 - Western Bulldogs
8 - Fremantle

9 - Geelong
10 - Hawthorn
11 - North Melbourne
12 - Melbourne
13 - Richmond
14 - Port Adelaide
15 - West Coast
16 - GC
17 - Essendon

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

1. Collingwood: It's a scary thought that the well coached Collingwood could have won the AFL premiership on the back of unseasoned, fresh kids. That's what they did. When newspapers, talkback radio & the internet community threw their two cents worth, Collingwood was a club full of potential stars. No one placed them anywhere near the almighty Geelong, or even the challengers such as Hawthorn & St. Kilda. Infact, Carlton supporters put themselves over Collingwood too. With a new year, comes new predictions, one safe prediction however is that Daisy Thomas will become All Australian, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and even Alan Didak could challange for the Brownlow and many of there young players come into this season as the best. Collingwood are easily the best, don't expect them to fail, only hope that someone comes along and surpasses them - they are the benchmark.

2. Hawthorn: 2009 & 2010 were pretty average years for Hawthorn supporters. They underachieved after that 2008 season, the end of 2010 saw that momentum return however. 11-3-1, that sounds like Hawthorn. If they can carry this momentum into the new season, Hawthorn will challenge for the premiership. Luke Hodge & Lance Franklin are the best this competition have, many from that 2008 premiership team are still playing for Hawthorn, you would think (if injury free) 2011 would be their last chance to make a real play for another premiership with this list. If they fail miserably, we will see a new rebuild take place, maybe with a new coach? But I predict they will have a very good year.

3. Fremantle: Very unsure on how Michael Barlow will bounce back after his horrific injury, but it seems as if Mark Harvey has taken this team from the bottom to the top. You can't do that in footy if you're not doing something right. 2011 should see Fremantle continue their unward trend, if they hit 2nd by the end of the year, they will get the double-chance, home final. Which basically means their chances of making a Grand Final will look very strong, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

4. St. Kilda: Their list is aging, but Brendon Goddard is a megastar, Hayes, Riewoldt, Montagna & Fisher are still strong enough to lead this team towards the top four again, but their chances are running out - even they know it. 2011 will be the last chance St. Nick has to attain premiership glory. 2012 will see the rise of teams such as Melbourne, North Melbourne & maybe Richmond & Essendon. Even the Gold Coast team will be a wildcard, they could explode and win it within two years, they have the stars. St. Kilda will begin to age, decline and tumble down the ladder until they begin rebuilding again.

5. Carlton: Carlton supporters will be the first to announce 'they are coming'. But unfortunately, without a strong forwardline and backline they will never be a legit contender for the flag. Their midfield is arguably the best in the league, but their defence and attack are not. They are good enough to make the top four, but I find it difficult to believe they can win a premiership with Lachie Henderson at full forward. Not that it's a knock on the kid, but he is too green to start kicking 60 a year, he might not even get 40. No team can win a premiership without some decent size up forward.

6. North Melbourne: The big shock for 2011. They are good enough to win 90% of their matches in 2011. They won't win them all, but they will make finals this year, if you want to make some easy money, bet on it now.

7. Geelong: They had a great run. When you lose two of the most important people in your clubs history - in a few months, you are ****ed. It will be SO hard for them to recover. Their list is getting old, we already found out Collingwood have surpassed them and their 2010 draft was sabotaged because Ablett wouldn't tell them what he was doing. They have a solid administration to get them up soon enough, there is also enough class left to keep them in the finals this year, but they are finished. The rebuild will begin in 2012. I also find it very hard to believe a first year coach can get them a premiership, has it ever happened? I highly doubt it.

8. Western Bulldogs: Lost a few older guys, but Eade is a smart cookie. They've got some young kids who have been playing for the last year or two, and you should see them popping up. It will take a few years for them to become legit contenders, but their slide shouldn't be too steep.

9. Melbourne
10. Richmond
11. Adelaide
12. Sydney
13. Port Adelaide
14. West Coast
15. Gold Coast
16. Essendon
17. Brisbane

 

[chriso1088]

1. Collingwod
2. Fremantle
3. St Kilda
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Carlton
6. Hawthorn
7. Geelong
8. North Melbourne
-------------------------
9. Melbourne
10. Sydney
11. Adelaide
12. Essendon
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Port Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. Brisbane

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

1 - Collingwood
2 - St Kilda
3 - Sydney
4 - Carlton
5 - Brisbane
6 - Adelaide
7 - Western Bulldogs
8 - Fremantle

9 - Geelong
10 - Adelaide
11 - North Melbourne
12 - Melbourne
13 - Richmond
14 - Port Adelaide
15 - West Coast
16 - GC
17 - Essendon

Hawthorn not playing this year?

 

[rioli is a hack]

1. Brisbane - I have had this knawing feeling that things are going better than expected.
2. Fremantle - Good size
3. Geelong - seem to have had the wake-up call they needed
4. Collingwood - from last year's form they look like they will be thereabouts
5. Sydney - seem to have ironed out a few of their problems in the coaches box
6. Richmond - look like breaking out in 2011
7. Essendon - James Hird & Bomber Thompson
8. Gold Coast - Bock
9. Carlton - look about the same, but GC seem to have their measure
10. West Coast - best coach in the game
11. St Kilda - Gay scandal too hard to recover from
12. Adelaide - Hard training will leave them buggered
13. Port Adelaide - Primus is not a rocket scientist
14. Western Bulldogs - as Sheed's once said to Aker: "Shit club"
15. North Melbourne - ditto
16. Melbourne - perennial losers

 

[Blotter]

1. Brisbane - I have had this knawing feeling that things are going better than expected.
2. Fremantle - Good size
3. Geelong - seem to have had the wake-up call they needed
4. Collingwood - from last year's form they look like they will be thereabouts
5. Sydney - seem to have ironed out a few of their problems in the coaches box
6. Richmond - look like breaking out in 2011
7. Essendon - James Hird & Bomber Thompson
8. Gold Coast - Bock
9. Carlton - look about the same, but GC seem to have their measure
10. West Coast - best coach in the game
11. St Kilda - Gay scandal too hard to recover from
12. Adelaide - Hard training will leave them buggered
13. Port Adelaide - Primus is not a rocket scientist
14. Western Bulldogs - as Sheed's once said to Aker: "Shit club"
15. North Melbourne - ditto
16. Melbourne - perennial losers

You've left Hawthorn out?

Also can't agree with your assessment of Brisbane. That's just weird. Knawing is also spelt gnawing.

Matty Primus is also a gun. That's a really bad call about him.

You also have Sydney, Carlton and North Melbourne too high.

Otherwise, your assessments are pretty good.

 

[jezza25]

1. Brisbane - I have had this knawing feeling that things are going better than expected.
2. Fremantle - Good size
3. Geelong - seem to have had the wake-up call they needed
4. Collingwood - from last year's form they look like they will be thereabouts
5. Sydney - seem to have ironed out a few of their problems in the coaches box
6. Richmond - look like breaking out in 2011
7. Essendon - James Hird & Bomber Thompson
8. Gold Coast - Bock
9. Carlton - look about the same, but GC seem to have their measure
10. West Coast - best coach in the game
11. St Kilda - Gay scandal too hard to recover from
12. Adelaide - Hard training will leave them buggered
13. Port Adelaide - Primus is not a rocket scientist
14. Western Bulldogs - as Sheed's once said to Aker: "Shit club"
15. North Melbourne - ditto
16. Melbourne - perennial losers

^Pathetic... where's Hawthorn btw ?