Preview 2015 Grand Final: Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles - Gunston IN, Hartung OUT

[MadDawg]

One thing I see in regards to this is your coach.

Simmo is unflappable and this will help calm the group.

I think you'll find he has flapped in the past and ruffled a few feathers in the process.

I'll just leave the heading here for you all:

Adam Simpson still haunted by chicken sex video

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/ad...hicken-sex-video/story-e6frf7jo-1225732661239

 

[moginie]

With all the talk of the heat and the advantage the Boo!gles should have, my mind immediately goes back to round 2 2013 where we kicked 8 goals to 3 in the final quarter.

We'll dig deep because most of the team know what it's like to sit on your bum and watch the other team celebrate.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Dry conditions must help our highly skilled game and the spread we have with Smith, Hilly, Suckers, Birch and Suckling.

 

[heh]

Dry conditions must help our highly skilled game and the spread we have with Smith, Hilly, Suckers, Birch and Suckling.

We have two sucklings??
Twice the whipping boys!!

 

[Hawkk]

The odds really flatter us.. Without stating the obvious, the start will be crucial for us - Hopefully Eagles are abit jittery playing on the big stage in front of 100k people.. And Hawks settle in a lot quicker and get the early scoreboard pressure..

With a big last 3 weeks, and a 30 degree day if it's close at 3/4 time I fear that we could get run over.

Perhaps. Our fans are far more pessimistic than the general public about our chances I have found.

A couple of things that have really jumped at me having a look at the match today...

Pros

- statistically, despite our indifferent performance through the year, we really have been the best team. We lead scores for / sit marginally second for scores against and are top 2 across most categories.
- we squared our 2 games against the Eagles this year (both at Subiaco - where the Eagles have an 11-2 record) and enter with a 8-3 record against the top 8 (the eagles have 7-5 record against the top 8)
- we are playing at a venue that we have an 80% success / rate over the last 4 years (we are 9/1 at the venue in finals) while the Eagles have a 3-4 record over 4 years
- the Eagles have a 6-1-3 record away from Perth (they haven't won a game outside Perth since round 16 - Collingwood)
- since the final 8 configuration was introduced in 1994 the team that has taken the long road has won 5 of 7 flags (Crows 97/98, Lions 03, Swans 05, Eagles 06 v Cats 94 and Carlton 99)
- we are lining up for our 5th GF in 8 years, as Jonathon Brown said today the toughest thing about the threepeat is just qualifying for the big dance...from here the best team usually takes home the chocolates
- for the third season in a row we have a clean bill of health leading into the GF...we have no excuses
- in terms of quarters won:

Hawks
Q1 16/9
Q2 19/6
Q3 22/3
Q4 21/4

Eagles
Q1 14/10
Q2 19/5
Q3 15/9
Q4 17/7

Countering these pros...

- we were spanked the last time we played them (the score line definitely flattered us)
- the Eagles have the forward structure that has exposed us in the past (power forwards that get spread on our defenders)
- the Eagles have a clear ascendency in the ruck and theoretically should have a clearance advantage over us (although we have won the clearance count in both matches). If they get easy ball out of the middle I don't think any defence in the league can take down Kennedy and Darling one out...
- a 4 week finals campaign, including 2 trips to WA is ridiculous...it's taken a herculean performance just to line up for the GF

I've waxed and wanned over the legs issue. The Hawks so far this season have been the best second half / final quarter team this season (and it's not even close) so perhaps we undersell our fitness?

If I was framing the market I would have us 1.70 to 2.20 favourites with an 8.5 point line (we are basically in 2012 GF territory)

 

[Hawkk]

Probably should mention that our MCG form (7-3) has been uncharacteristically poor so far this season

Geelong +62
Essendon -2
Melbourne +105
Sydney -3
Essendon +48
Collingwood +10
Richmond -18
Geelong +36
Carlton +37
Adelaide +73

Although 2 of those games were decided by less than a goal

 

[Hawkk]

A couple of interesting stats...

http://www.afl.com.au/stats

- Hawthorn are 7th in the completion for tackles (65.8) whilst the Eagles are 14th (61.0)
- the Eagles are 2nd for hit outs (51.9) while we are 7th (45.0)
- Hawthorn is 1st for kicks (224.8), 2nd for kicks (168.9) and 1st for disposals (393.7). The Eagles are 7th for kicks (202.3), 6th for handball (165.3) and 5th for disposals (371.8)
- Hawthorn is 1st for inside 50s, the Eagles are 2nd
- The Eagles are 3rd for free kicks for (18.7) / 18th for free kicks against (15.1). Hawthorn is 12th for free kicks for (17.7) / 13th for free kicks against (17.1)

I can't find a marks inside 50 metric but the Eagles would destroy us in that category. What does this mean?

The Eagles guard space, they don't really tackle in great numbers (even in the QF the count was only in mid 60's). Hawthorn will try and control possession, the Eagles will seek to break down our system and catch us on the counter...and finally, the Eagles advantage in the ruck is greatly overstated. For the most part they cut us to pieces due to our horrid disposals on the counter

I have no doubt this will be a terrific game, potentially the most entertaining of our 5 GF's since 2008

 

[Hawkk]

Interesting point made in tomorrow's paper. Wasn't aware we were number 1 for marks inside 50. The Eagles have had more marks inside 50 during our two games so far this season...

http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news...ck-v-west-coasts-defence-20150928-gjwo1i.html

The premiers rank No.1 in the league for marks inside 50, but the percentage of goals that come from those marks is actually the second fewest in the league – which tells you that the Hawks are at their most dangerous when the ball is on the deck in their forward half.

They rank No.1 in the forward area for ground ball gets and contested possessions. We have seen it already in the finals, the likes of Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and even the versatile Roughead and Gunston winning crucial one-on-one contests, spinning or sharing and then snapping or setting up.

 

[WWSD]

The last time we played the Eagles a few weeks ago the coaching staff got a number of things wrong. This time Lake will not play on Kennedy. Chip Frawley will get first crack. Suckling is no longer playing in defense where he's exposed, playing high up the ground as a wing/half forward. Schoenmakers over the last two games has given us a target up forward allowing Roughead to spend more time in the center. We go into the Grand Final in better form then we did in the Qualifying Final.

 

[offtherails9]

Looking like it'll be windy. Does the wind have much of an affect on games at the G? I wouldn't really know but do the stands provide much shelter?

 

[dipper86]

Looking like it'll be windy. Does the wind have much of an affect on games at the G? I wouldn't really know but do the stands provide much shelter?

Wind is the worst nightmare for our gameplan......you combine that with pressure from a good team and we have a recipe for what's happened to us in 2012 and most recently in Subiaco.

 

[Hawkk]

Wind is the worst nightmare for our gameplan......you combine that with pressure from a good team and we have a recipe for what's happened to us in 2012 and most recently in Subiaco.

Ill raise you round 19 2015 and the 2013 GF...

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Hoping schoe stays in

He's our most important in terms of structure

A bit like ladson in the 2000's
Nowhere near the best, but allows those around him to do their thing much easier

Also provides us with an alternative rebounding from defence, relief in the ruck, and on the half forward flank as a link man

 

[SSSSSS]

Would like to see Roughy as ruck rover. Gunners playing high half forward. Schoey at CHF and Rioli at FF in the square.

I think their defense is going to struggle if we keep mixing and matching throughout the day.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Perhaps. Our fans are far more pessimistic than the general public about our chances I have found.

A couple of things that have really jumped at me having a look at the match today...

Pros

- statistically, despite our indifferent performance through the year, we really have been the best team. We lead scores for / sit marginally second for scores against and are top 2 across most categories.
- we squared our 2 games against the Eagles this year (both at Subiaco - where the Eagles have an 11-2 record) and enter with a 8-3 record against the top 8 (the eagles have 7-5 record against the top 8)
- we are playing at a venue that we have an 80% success / rate over the last 4 years (we are 9/1 at the venue in finals) while the Eagles have a 3-4 record over 4 years
- the Eagles have a 6-1-3 record away from Perth (they haven't won a game outside Perth since round 16 - Collingwood)
- since the final 8 configuration was introduced in 1994 the team that has taken the long road has won 5 of 7 flags (Crows 97/98, Lions 03, Swans 05, Eagles 06 v Cats 94 and Carlton 99)
- we are lining up for our 5th GF in 8 years, as Jonathon Brown said today the toughest thing about the threepeat is just qualifying for the big dance...from here the best team usually takes home the chocolates
- for the third season in a row we have a clean bill of health leading into the GF...we have no excuses
- in terms of quarters won:

Hawks
Q1 16/9
Q2 19/6
Q3 22/3
Q4 21/4

Eagles
Q1 14/10
Q2 19/5
Q3 15/9
Q4 17/7

Countering these pros...

- we were spanked the last time we played them (the score line definitely flattered us)
- the Eagles have the forward structure that has exposed us in the past (power forwards that get spread on our defenders)
- the Eagles have a clear ascendency in the ruck and theoretically should have a clearance advantage over us (although we have won the clearance count in both matches). If they get easy ball out of the middle I don't think any defence in the league can take down Kennedy and Darling one out...
- a 4 week finals campaign, including 2 trips to WA is ridiculous...it's taken a herculean performance just to line up for the GF

I've waxed and wanned over the legs issue. The Hawks so far this season have been the best second half / final quarter team this season (and it's not even close) so perhaps we undersell our fitness?

If I was framing the market I would have us 1.70 to 2.20 favourites with an 8.5 point line (we are basically in 2012 GF territory)

Our fans are pessimistic some on here were concerned about Brisbane in Tassie Round 22 being a danger game.

 

[JoeHawk]

Ouch. Right next to the Eagles cheer squad (M3).

Damn. In 08 that side was the Hawks cheer squad end.

 

[abe8009]

Ill raise you round 19 2015 and the 2013 GF...

There was a game in 2013 vs the pies that it felt like a cyclone came thru the G and we still played our way.
Round 22 vs Brisbane this year. Strong wind in tassie. Not quite the same opposition I know but we kicked well that day.

I don't think the wind is terrible. The wet & slippery bothers is more as you would see in last few years against Richmond and numerous times vs geelong

 

[Xtreme]

Don't want to harp on about it (but I guess I am going to). Really hoping for a good showing on Saturday, if Hawthorn lose I am not sure what would hurt more... losing by less than 2 goals, or losing by 8+ goals (at least I'd know how Sydney felt last year lol).

I guess I am more worried about players playing their grand final (form wise) in the preliminary final. I am sure they are being told that they still have work to do and the job isn't over. It happens to the team that doesn't win the GF, Sydney last year, Freo the year before.... everyone looks at their prelim result and thinks "yep they'll be unstoppable come grand final day" and the opposite happens.

 

[macdaddio]

Let's not forget our 30 degree day is nothing compared to a 30 degree day in Perth.
So this will make no difference at to to our boys and it's more likely to reach 26 knowing our weather here in Melbourne...

 

[cryptor]

Interesting point made in tomorrow's paper. Wasn't aware we were number 1 for marks inside 50. The Eagles have had more marks inside 50 during our two games so far this season...

http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news...ck-v-west-coasts-defence-20150928-gjwo1i.html

The premiers rank No.1 in the league for marks inside 50, but the percentage of goals that come from those marks is actually the second fewest in the league – which tells you that the Hawks are at their most dangerous when the ball is on the deck in their forward half.

They rank No.1 in the forward area for ground ball gets and contested possessions. We have seen it already in the finals, the likes of Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and even the versatile Roughead and Gunston winning crucial one-on-one contests, spinning or sharing and then snapping or setting up.

I think most teams will have a shot for any mark inside 50 where as we will often try to hit another target that is closer or at a better angle. This can help with our conversion when the shot is actually taken but it dilutes the conversion per mark inside 50 stat.

It's a tactic that works extremely well when we're switched on but I'd wager it's one of the number one sources of our turnovers that result in coast to coast goals.

 

[Hawkk]

Let's not forget our 30 degree day is nothing compared to a 30 degree day in Perth.
So this will make no difference at to to our boys and it's more likely to reach 26 knowing our weather here in Melbourne...

Humidity is a major factor (so says anyone who has spent more than a few hours in Queensland or WA)

 

[Gene Simmons]

Hoping schoe stays in

He's our most important in terms of structure

A bit like ladson in the 2000's
Nowhere near the best, but allows those around him to do their thing much easier

Also provides us with an alternative rebounding from defence, relief in the ruck, and on the half forward flank as a link man

I am leaning towards the "Shoey should stay in" chorus, the best thing about having him in the side is that he stays around the 50 and provides a marking target inside 50 besides just Puopolo

In saying that, I don't think we can have Rough, Gunston, Hale & Shoey all in the forward line...

 

[Dinsdale]

Aaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhh!!!! 4 more days of speculating and waiting before the big dance, hurry up Saturday !@

 

[dipper86]

Ill raise you round 19 2015 and the 2013 GF...

2013 wasn't anywhere near as windy as 2012.

 

[Xtreme]

Both 2012 and 2013 were good cape weather!! Seinfeld reference