Preview 2015 Grand Final: Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles - Gunston IN, Hartung OUT

[TazHawk15]

Aaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhh!!!! 4 more days of speculating and waiting before the big dance, hurry up Saturday !@

Yep forget about the holiday in Vic on Friday I am taking a week off starting tomorrow.

So its going to be a looooooooooooonnnnnnnnnngggggggggg week.

 

[Agent Smith]

Been changing my INs and OUTs continuously, trying to figure out the best lineup. Eventually, the weather forecast did it for me. Assuming we'll lose the ruck anyway, have Roughie do Hale's job (which will actually bring Big Red into the game rather than spectating). If he and BB can negate NicNat enough to stop him providing an armchair ride to their onballers, then it becomes a matter for our guys to be smart enough to position themselves correctly at the contest.

IN: Gunners
OUT: Hale

 

[pantskyle]

Hello Hawks,

Really looking forward to the game this week, dream Grand Final for me, plenty of Hawks supporters in the family (most of them actually) and being it in this year is a nice reward for barracking for the Hawks in the last two.

Do you guys think the reported 32 degree heat will impact you guys negatively? Frankly I'm looking at any little tiny thing that could benefit us.

Good luck anyway for what I hope is a cracker and not a one sided affair (genuinely terrified of this outcome, I'd have to change families).

Wager Abasi?

 

[macdaddio]

Hello Hawks,

Really looking forward to the game this week, dream Grand Final for me, plenty of Hawks supporters in the family (most of them actually) and being it in this year is a nice reward for barracking for the Hawks in the last two.

Do you guys think the reported 32 degree heat will impact you guys negatively? Frankly I'm looking at any little tiny thing that could benefit us.

Good luck anyway for what I hope is a cracker and not a one sided affair (genuinely terrified of this outcome, I'd have to change families).

Wager Abasi?

32 degrees in Melbourne is more like 28 degrees.
In 2008 GF we played in 30 degrees

 

[Hawk Presidente]

For those worried about the wind, we have cut teams to ribbons at Launceston and that wind is the strongest breeze in the AFL. Yes, it makes it scrappier, but we adjust extremely well and are conditioned to doing so.

As for the Eagles being the best defence, well, 0.4 of a point per game is irrelevant, particularly when you consider their significantly easier draw (not to mention playing Haw, Syd, Adel Geel at home). The Dockers were the best going into last week's game (again we were 2nd) and look how that turned out.

 

[pantskyle]

32 degrees in Melbourne is more like 28 degrees.
In 2008 GF we played in 30 degrees

Appreciate you quickly evaporating any thought I had of an advantage.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hello Hawks,

Really looking forward to the game this week, dream Grand Final for me, plenty of Hawks supporters in the family (most of them actually) and being it in this year is a nice reward for barracking for the Hawks in the last two.

Do you guys think the reported 32 degree heat will impact you guys negatively? Frankly I'm looking at any little tiny thing that could benefit us.

Good luck anyway for what I hope is a cracker and not a one sided affair (genuinely terrified of this outcome, I'd have to change families).

Wager Abasi?

If Hawthorn lose I get to punch you in the face? Deal?

 

[MrPremiership]

We need to play 2 rucks against NicNat and Sinclair....so we won't be dropping Hale to bring in Gunstan. Cegs was boz for BHH, so ruckman stay as is.

Only 1 possible change, and it will be Schoe for Gunners

 

[pantskyle]

If Hawthorn lose I get to punch you in the face? Deal?

Would be worth it, plus I've seen your hands.

 

[driftyhunter]

If Hawthorn lose I get to punch you in the face? Deal?

U can punch me in the head too if we lose cause I will lost, sad.....and drunk as a monkey and probably won't remember...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Would be worth it, plus I've seen your hands.

 

[Hawkk]

Posted this in the squiggle thread on the main board...

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...squiggly-lines.1022679/page-207#post-41208054

Just reading the Grand Final myths thread on the main board I thought I would have a look at the impact of the 4 game finals series using the squiggle performance in forecasting the Grand Final result (where the two competing clubs have played an uneven number of finals games)

For ease of reference I extended the analysis pre final 8 (1994 onwards) to the creation of the final 6 (1991 - 1993) and final 5 (1972 - 1990)

Top 8 (QF, SF, PF, GF (4 games) vs. QF, PF, GF (3 games))
1994 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Eagles by 22 (Eagles (rested) won by 80pts in the GF)
1997 ISTATE:91-12 tipped St Kilda by 22 (Crows won by 31 pts in the GF)
1998 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 4 (Crows won by 35 pts in the GF)
1999 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 9 (North (rested) won by 35 pts in the GF)
2003 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Lions by 17 (Lions won by 50 pts in the GF)
2005 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Swans by 25 (Swans won by 4 pts in the GF)
2006 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Swans by 8 (Eagles won by 1 pt in the GF)

Top 6 (QF, SF, PF, GF (4 games) vs. QF, SF, GF (3 games))
1991 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 9 (Hawks (rested) won by 53 pts in the GF)
1992 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Cats by 15 (Eagles (rested) won by 28 pts in the GF)
1993 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Dons by 4 (Dons won by 44 pts in the GF)

Top 5 (QF, QF, SF, GF (4 games) vs. SF, PF, GF (3 games))
1990 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Pies by 16 (Pies won by 48 pts in the GF)

Top 5 (QF/EF, SF, PF, GF (4 games) vs. SF, GF (2 games)
1989 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 12 (Hawks (rested) won by 12 pts in the GF)
1988 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 32 (Hawks (rested) won by 96 pts in the GF)
1987 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 4 (Blues (rested) won by 31 pts in the GF)
1985 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Dons by 1 (Dons (rested) won by 78 pts in the GF)
1982 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 9 (Blues won by 18 pts in the GF)
1981 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 12 (Blues (rested) won by 20 pts in the GF)
1979 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 5 (Blues (rested) won by 7 pts in the GF)
1975 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 0 (North won by 55 pts in the GF)
1974 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Tigers by 1 (Tigers (rested) won by 41 pts in the GF)

Top 5 (QF, SF, GF (3 games) vs. SF, PF GF (3 games)
1986 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 8 (Hawks won by 42 pts in the GF)
1984 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Dons by 11 (Dons won by 24 pts in the GF)
1978 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 1 (Hawks won by 18 pts in the GF)
1972 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Tigers by 5 (Blues won by 27 pts in the GF)

Top 5 (QF/EF, SF, PF, GF (4 games) vs. QF, SF, GF (3 games)
1983 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 6 (Hawks (rested) won by 83 pts in the GF)
1980 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Tigers by 8 (Tigers (rested) won by 81 pts in the GF)
1976 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 4 (Hawks (rested) won by 30 pts in the GF)
1973 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 4 (Tigers won by 30 pts in the GF)

Top 5 (QF, SF, PF, GF, GF (5 games) vs. SF, GF, GF (3 games)
1977 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 6 + 5 (North (rested) won replay by 27 pts in the GF)

Ignore the Top 5 (5 games v 3 games) and (4 games v 2 games) and the rested team beats the squiggle performance line 9 times out of 17 games (53% of time)

That probably goes against conventional understanding...

The rested team has 'beaten' the squiggle performance line on 9 out of 17 occasions (53%). In the other 8 games the team that has played the extra game has actually outperformed the expected performance...

Surprisingly it appears that the extra final is negligible

 

[cryptor]

It's forecast to be 32 now??

Was 26 originally and has been jumping up 2 degrees every day. Will be 40 degrees by game day at this rate!

The BOM website still says 28 degrees and with most of the heat hitting early arvo it shouldn't be that big a deal by the opening bounce and later in the game.

I reckon the week after playing in the heat or a wet slog is when it hits players. At the time they should be relatively fresh and well hydrated going in. Replenishing energy and stored water in the body during recovery is the issue. But no next week unless we draw so shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Hawkk]

Hello Hawks,

Really looking forward to the game this week, dream Grand Final for me, plenty of Hawks supporters in the family (most of them actually) and being it in this year is a nice reward for barracking for the Hawks in the last two.

Do you guys think the reported 32 degree heat will impact you guys negatively? Frankly I'm looking at any little tiny thing that could benefit us.

Good luck anyway for what I hope is a cracker and not a one sided affair (genuinely terrified of this outcome, I'd have to change families).

Wager Abasi?

Where is it reported that it will be 32 degrees?

 

[Hodginator]

@sam_mcclure: The Grand Final Umpires are Matt Stevic, Brett Rosebury and Jeff Dalgliesh.

 

[pantskyle]

Where is it reported that it will be 32 degrees?

I read it on BigFooty...

 

[Hawkk]

With respect to 1987, I note that we actually played 4 finals in that finals series (compared to Carlton's 2)

Top 5 (QF/EF, SF, PF, GF (4 games) vs. SF, GF (2 games)
1989 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 12 (Hawks (rested) won by 12 pts in the GF)
1988 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 32 (Hawks (rested) won by 96 pts in the GF)
1987 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Hawks by 4 (Blues (rested) won by 31 pts in the GF)
1985 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Dons by 1 (Dons (rested) won by 78 pts in the GF)
1982 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 9 (Blues won by 18 pts in the GF)
1981 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 12 (Blues (rested) won by 20 pts in the GF)
1979 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Blues by 5 (Blues (rested) won by 7 pts in the GF)
1975 ISTATE:91-12 tipped North by 0 (North won by 55 pts in the GF)
1974 ISTATE:91-12 tipped Tigers by 1 (Tigers (rested) won by 41 pts in the GF)

In 33 degree heat (the hottest Grand Final temperature in recorded history) its pretty amazing that we only lost by 5 goals)

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

@sam_mcclure: The Grand Final Umpires are Matt Stevic, Brett Rosebury and Jeff Dalgliesh.

Hahaha, meltdown on the main board, imminent!

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Schoey has to stay in. Get him 4 shots on goal and more likely than not. We will get 4 goals.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I'm just going to list reasons why we will win against West Coast using errors in the QF
- Clarko was out of form as a coach.
- Frawley playing forward first half?
- Lake playing forward in second half?
- Narrow ground, web won't work as well
- our disposal was awful, pressure can't turn your disposal THAT bad
- our touch was awful as well, just not one touching the ball when all year we would.
- crowd will be even, no umpires being influenced by the crowd
- Shoenmakers will most likely be in. Played well against Weagles in round 18 or whatever. Provides a contest and can kick 3 goals from 3 kicks.
Edit: only did this to give me a false sense of safety. But I think they're all valid reasons as well

 

[Hawkk]

I'm just going to list reasons why we will win against West Coast using errors in the QF
- Clarko was out of form as a coach.
- Frawley playing forward first half?
- Lake playing forward in second half?
- Narrow ground, web won't work as well
- our disposal was awful, pressure can't turn your disposal THAT bad
- our touch was awful as well, just not one touching the ball when all year we would.
- crowd will be even, no umpires being influenced by the crowd
- Shoenmakers will most likely be in. Played well against Weagles in round 18 or whatever. Provides a contest and can kick 3 goals from 3 kicks.

It won't be.

If the last 4 years is any indication, the travelling crowd always brings more noise irrespective of whether or not we have the numbers.

Just like Fremantle in 2013 the Eagles fans will be LOUD!

...and who could blame them, they haven't made a GF for a decade and have in all likelihood spent thousands of dollars just to get to Melbourne

 

[pantskyle]

Hahaha, meltdown on the main board, imminent!

Big deal.

Best team on the day will win regardless of the umpires.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

It won't be.

If the last 4 years is any indication, the travelling crowd always brings more noise irrespective of whether or not we have the numbers.

Just like Fremantle in 2013 the Eagles fans will be LOUD!

...and who could blame them, they haven't made a GF for a decade and have in all likelihood spent thousands of dollars just to get to Melbourne

Yeah fair enough, but the crowd factor could also affect the psychology of our players. I doubt they will be intimidated like they were in the QF. We were rattled and it showed

 

[Hawkk]

Yeah fair enough, but the crowd factor could also affect the psychology of our players. I doubt they will be intimidated like they were in the QF. We were rattled and it showed

That excuse was a cop out.

We've played off in 6 PF's, 4 GF's and have played countless home and away matches in front of 80k plus.

Are you telling me that any player that played in the 2011 Preliminary Final against Collingwood would be intimidated by noise?

 

[grumbleguts]

Posted this in the squiggle thread on the main board...

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...squiggly-lines.1022679/page-207#post-41208054



The rested team has 'beaten' the squiggle performance line on 9 out of 17 occasions (53%). In the other 8 games the team that has played the extra game has actually outperformed the expected performance...

Surprisingly it appears that the extra final is negligible

Not surprisingly, the bye has a negative effect. The extra game isn't negligible. When you consider that the extra game is usually played by a lower ranked team but they still win almost 50% of the time, it has a positive effect.