2015 Trade/FA Discussion (cont. in Pt.2)

[jackess]

But that dogs play was a HUGE gamble, at the moment it looks ok though Boyd isnt a million dollar player, but certainly tons of potential. But he could also be the next Gumbleton (not that I am wishing it on him, because I quite like the dogs).

Or Boyd might just end up a 2 goal a game handy key forward on a $mil/year.

 

[Viceregal]

Or Boyd might just end up a 2 goal a game handy key forward on a $mil/year.

Good work if you can get it!

 

[PattyKwasagun]

But that dogs play was a HUGE gamble, at the moment it looks ok though Boyd isnt a million dollar player, but certainly tons of potential. But he could also be the next Gumbleton (not that I am wishing it on him, because I quite like the dogs).

Oh absolutely it was. And you're right, there is the potential that it could backfire potentially if we try to go down the same path. But what's the alternative? Not take any risks and just settle with what's there? I think there's significant risk in seemingly overspending on players who haven't proven they're worth it yet - like Dixon or Henderson - but the payoff could be so important that I feel we'd be mad not to try.

 

[lionshine]

Oh absolutely it was. And you're right, there is the potential that it could backfire potentially if we try to go down the same path. But what's the alternative? Not take any risks and just settle with what's there? I think there's significant risk in seemingly overspending on players who haven't proven they're worth it yet - like Dixon or Henderson - but the payoff could be so important that I feel we'd be mad not to try.

I wouldn't be against targeting a Dixon or Henderson, however, if we are going to take a big risk like the Bulldogs did with Boyd I would rather we took it on a player who had the potential to be a superstar like Patton or Carlise. Someone that has the potential to really reward the club in return for the risk.

 

[pulpdriver]

I wouldn't be against targeting a Dixon or Henderson, however, if we are going to take a big risk like the Bulldogs did with Boyd I would rather we took it on a player who had the potential to be a superstar like Patton or Carlise. Someone that has the potential to really reward the club in return for the risk.

Carlisle has had a couple very impressive games but I still think he's somewhat overrated. Would happily offer our first and (if) highest pick we get for Aish to GWS for Patton though, even with the injuries. Kind of risk I could get behind. Henderson a safe, quality target and not contracted though. I think we could pay overs if he were willing to come to us.

 

[captainrich]

Carlisle has had a couple very impressive games but I still think he's somewhat overrated. Would happily offer our first and (if) highest pick we get for Aish to GWS for Patton though, even with the injuries. Kind of risk I could get behind. Henderson a safe, quality target and not contracted though. I think we could pay overs if he were willing to come to us.

he wuldnt willingly leave gws while still cntracted, would look to repay the faith shown in him by them after all the knee recons

 

[Lace Out]

he wuldnt willingly leave gws while still cntracted, would look to repay the faith shown in him by them after all the knee recons

You would think so but more surprising things have happened.

Dixon seems like the one we've been into for a while though.

 

[pulpdriver]

he wuldnt willingly leave gws while still cntracted, would look to repay the faith shown in him by them after all the knee recons

Yeah, probably. But if we come to GWS with a Godfather offer (potentially 2 first round picks) it might be enough for them to consider how much they need him along with their other forward options and with the notion of being a definitive number one forward along with a contract increase from us might be enough to get him over the line.

 

[FFB1]

I wouldn't be against targeting a Dixon or Henderson, however, if we are going to take a big risk like the Bulldogs did with Boyd I would rather we took it on a player who had the potential to be a superstar like Patton or Carlise. Someone that has the potential to really reward the club in return for the risk.

You really like Carlisle don't ya Lionshine? I reckon you've mentioned Carlisle as a target more times than I've had hot dinners.

 

[lionshine]

You really like Carlisle don't ya Lionshine? I reckon you've mentioned Carlisle as a target more times than I've had hot dinners.

I have probably mentioned him the same amount of times I have mentioned the likes of Henderson, Dixon and Rance which admittedly has been quite a few times in this thread The reality is they are all points for discussion because they are quality KPP's who are out of contract at the end of this year and fit the age profile of our list.

 

[Dan12]

It's an interesting idea. In the past few years while a few clubs down the bottom with us have gone with or at least considered drastic trades to get in key forwards (Dees with Hogan, Dogs with Boyd), we - arguably with the biggest need for a key forward - haven't gone down that path.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if we do take a big gamble this trade period. Whether it's Patton, Henderson, Dixon or anyone else - I wouldn't be surprised to see us pay what's considered generous overs to get a very promising key forward prospect here. It's gotten to the stage of desperation now where we don't have much of a choice.

I think it's important to differentiate between our situation and the Bulldogs/Boyd. They had zero promising forwards and now have one. In our case I think we have four promising forward types- Andrews, McStay, Freeman and Close. They're all very raw but I think they're all more likely to make it than not. I like that group of four and think they could gel and compliment each other as a forward unit. Andrews as the back up ruck/agile tall forward ala David Hale, McStay as the versatile 3rd tall, Close as a workhorse, contest-creating CHF and Freeman at full forward. There probably isn't any superstars amongst that bunch but they all have talent and could all be those components of a winning team. I'd like to give these guys time so we can have a better idea of what we need. All of them except Andrews are contracted until 2017- I wonder if that's their time for judgement and the time for big moves to be made.

I'd be wary of gettingto someone like a Hawkins or Patton. They're only elite/worth the money if we play them at FF and in 2-3 years we could have a situation that doesn't render them the super important players that they would be now if they walked into our team. Is it worth spending $1 million on such an 'unknown' situation with these 18-20yo's developing together?

In short, we don't lack talent up forward, we lack maturity. And we should be projecting a few years away with our forwards. I'd rather we got a less expensive option who could provide the necessary target and contest (say Josh Walker) or someone who can play as a no. 1 target but also play other roles (perhaps Dixon, Henderson or McGovern).

Also, the situation up forward is currently as dire as it will ever be. McGuane, Paine, Freeman, Close, West, Merrett all injured and Staker only just coming back. That's a remarkable run, seeing as those guys are all our most capable tall targets. I think we should wait until it settles down a bit to decide what exactly we need. I do agree though, something really significant has to change. Either the guys currently listed need to improve a lot or we need 1-2 new players to give us something resembling a proper spine.

 

[captainrich]

You would think so but more surprising things have happened.

Dixon seems like the one we've been into for a while though.

agree someone like Dixon is more gettable for us in comparison to Patton, especially with acquisition of 2metre Peter, however we must remember Dixon has only shown glimpses much like say an Aaron Black or Carlisle (even less than them) without ever becoming a proven talent

Yeah, probably. But if we come to GWS with a Godfather offer (potentially 2 first round picks) it might be enough for them to consider how much they need him along with their other forward options and with the notion of being a definitive number one forward along with a contract increase from us might be enough to get him over the line.

youre correct in your thinking and we probably do need to be more ballsy but maybe patton is just tooo risky with whatt we have to give up for him, however not may other options either besides say dixon, tomlinson, reid

 

[blueiris]

Wouldn't pay 2 first round picks for Patton has done 2 knee injuries may never be the same again

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I think it's important to differentiate between our situation and the Bulldogs/Boyd. They had zero promising forwards and now have one. In our case I think we have four promising forward types- Andrews, McStay, Freeman and Close. They're all very raw but I think they're all more likely to make it than not. I like that group of four and think they could gel and compliment each other as a forward unit. Andrews as the back up ruck/agile tall forward ala David Hale, McStay as the versatile 3rd tall, Close as a workhorse, contest-creating CHF and Freeman at full forward. There probably isn't any superstars amongst that bunch but they all have talent and could all be those components of a winning team. I'd like to give these guys time so we can have a better idea of what we need. All of them except Andrews are contracted until 2017- I wonder if that's their time for judgement and the time for big moves to be made.

I do agree with you, but I think you've got to be really cautious about thinking any of them have long term futures. Right now I haven't really seen a lot from any of the four of those players to suggest that they'll definitely be improvements on Retzlaff, Cornelius, or Lisle.

They've definitely got potential, but I'd be very hesitant to bet our future on them as I wouldn't really be surprised if at least 3 of them aren't on the list in 4/5 years time.

The other advantage of someone like Dixon is that he'd come into our side as a 25 year old - ready to hit his prime and lead a team up front. I personally do think that he's shown enough to suggest he could be an elite key forward (although am well aware others could argue strongly against that), and that coming into our side as the midfield matures around the same age as them would be a massive boost.

Regardless of the potential of players like Close and McStay, when they hit their prime (25ish), Rocky, Reddo, Rich, Beams etc will be in or nearing their 30s. We need someone who's going to be able to stand up as a leader in the forward line within the next two seasons and hit their straps as this midfield we've put together hits their prime of 27/28. Regardless of how good our current young key forwards could be, I can't imagine any of them are going to be ready to be the main key forward in a premiership side within 4 or 5 years time - and I feel if we're going to have a serious crack at a premiership with our current midfield, we need someone who can be.

That's why Dixon makes a lot of sense, Carlisle could well too, and even though I'm not necessarily for Patton, he is a year older than them and more ready made. That's not to say that 2 or 3 of those other young kids won't be in the forward line - I just can't see them being our main target up forward so soon.

 

[Gibbo_88]

I think it's important to differentiate between our situation and the Bulldogs/Boyd. They had zero promising forwards and now have one. In our case I think we have four promising forward types- Andrews, McStay, Freeman and Close. They're all very raw but I think they're all more likely to make it than not. I like that group of four and think they could gel and compliment each other as a forward unit. Andrews as the back up ruck/agile tall forward ala David Hale, McStay as the versatile 3rd tall, Close as a workhorse, contest-creating CHF and Freeman at full forward. There probably isn't any superstars amongst that bunch but they all have talent and could all be those components of a winning team. I'd like to give these guys time so we can have a better idea of what we need. All of them except Andrews are contracted until 2017- I wonder if that's their time for judgement and the time for big moves to be made.

I'd be wary of gettingto someone like a Hawkins or Patton. They're only elite/worth the money if we play them at FF and in 2-3 years we could have a situation that doesn't render them the super important players that they would be now if they walked into our team. Is it worth spending $1 million on such an 'unknown' situation with these 18-20yo's developing together?

In short, we don't lack talent up forward, we lack maturity. And we should be projecting a few years away with our forwards. I'd rather we got a less expensive option who could provide the necessary target and contest (say Josh Walker) or someone who can play as a no. 1 target but also play other roles (perhaps Dixon, Henderson or McGovern).

Also, the situation up forward is currently as dire as it will ever be. McGuane, Paine, Freeman, Close, West, Merrett all injured and Staker only just coming back. That's a remarkable run, seeing as those guys are all our most capable tall targets. I think we should wait until it settles down a bit to decide what exactly we need. I do agree though, something really significant has to change. Either the guys currently listed need to improve a lot or we need 1-2 new players to give us something resembling a proper spine.

Good post Dan. I do worry with this fast tracking development of our key position players that they might become a bit like what happened to the demons from 2012-14. If our midfield can't get it together so that we're at least getting the ball inside 50 and giving them the opportunity to mark the ball then it's not a year of development for them, the only lesson they will learn is that they have to make the most of every opportunity. I also have some serious doubts about all those players trying to make it. I don't think any of them have shown the improvement or natural ability that Clarke and Gardiner have at the other end. Still very early days.

 

[a mayes ing]

Dixon has played 50 games for a grand total of 55 goals over a period of 4 years. Too injury prone imo, if we are saying we shouldn't get Patton due to his injuries then why is Dixon any different. Averaging just over a goal a game.
I would prefer Hawkins (unlikely) or Carlisle (massive potential but unlikely as well).

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Dixon has played 50 games for a grand total of 55 goals over a period of 4 years. Too injury prone imo, if we are saying we shouldn't get Patton due to his injuries then why is Dixon any different. Averaging just over a goal a game.
I would prefer Hawkins (unlikely) or Carlisle (massive potential but unlikely as well).

I don't know a lot about Dixon's injury history, but I think 'injury prone' is a phrase that gets thrown around far too regularly. Josh Drummond regularly injured himself in the same way - he was injury prone. My read on Dixon to this stage (off little in depth knowledge) has been that he's had different injuries, rather than one part of his body that just keeps failing.

While some bodies just don't stand up to being elite athletes and regularly break down, I'm not sure I'd put Dixon in that camp. I feel like he's more just had a fair bit of bad luck. There are plenty of promising key forwards who have been in and out of sides in their early years through injuries though, before stepping up and cementing their place - so that doesn't worry me.

In just about every way, I think Dixon is probably the perfect target for us. Age, stage of career he's at, style of play - and it doesn't hurt that he's a Queenslander either. Personally I'd have him as our number 1 off season target.

 

[a mayes ing]

I don't know a lot about Dixon's injury history, but I think 'injury prone' is a phrase that gets thrown around far too regularly. Josh Drummond regularly injured himself in the same way - he was injury prone. My read on Dixon to this stage (off little in depth knowledge) has been that he's had different injuries, rather than one part of his body that just keeps failing.

While some bodies just don't stand up to being elite athletes and regularly break down, I'm not sure I'd put Dixon in that camp. I feel like he's more just had a fair bit of bad luck. There are plenty of promising key forwards who have been in and out of sides in their early years through injuries though, before stepping up and cementing their place - so that doesn't worry me.

In just about every way, I think Dixon is probably the perfect target for us. Age, stage of career he's at, style of play - and it doesn't hurt that he's a Queenslander either. Personally I'd have him as our number 1 off season target.

Plus he can ruck a bit as well. If we do get Dixon then l doubt we would have both Martin and Leuy in the same team. This leads me to believe that l think Leuy will go via FA IF we acquire Dixon.

 

[captainrich]

Plus he can ruck a bit as well. If we do get Dixon then l doubt we would have both Martin and Leuy in the same team. This leads me to believe that l think Leuy will go via FA IF we acquire Dixon.

leuy leaving this year by FA would be disapointing, if in the unlikely event the club does pull offf a coup and sign Rance, leuy goes for free (unlikely but would be pretty dogsheet)

 

[Dan12]

I do agree with you, but I think you've got to be really cautious about thinking any of them have long term futures. Right now I haven't really seen a lot from any of the four of those players to suggest that they'll definitely be improvements on Retzlaff, Cornelius, or Lisle.

They've definitely got potential, but I'd be very hesitant to bet our future on them as I wouldn't really be surprised if at least 3 of them aren't on the list in 4/5 years time.

The other advantage of someone like Dixon is that he'd come into our side as a 25 year old - ready to hit his prime and lead a team up front. I personally do think that he's shown enough to suggest he could be an elite key forward (although am well aware others could argue strongly against that), and that coming into our side as the midfield matures around the same age as them would be a massive boost.

Regardless of the potential of players like Close and McStay, when they hit their prime (25ish), Rocky, Reddo, Rich, Beams etc will be in or nearing their 30s. We need someone who's going to be able to stand up as a leader in the forward line within the next two seasons and hit their straps as this midfield we've put together hits their prime of 27/28. Regardless of how good our current young key forwards could be, I can't imagine any of them are going to be ready to be the main key forward in a premiership side within 4 or 5 years time - and I feel if we're going to have a serious crack at a premiership with our current midfield, we need someone who can be.

That's why Dixon makes a lot of sense, Carlisle could well too, and even though I'm not necessarily for Patton, he is a year older than them and more ready made. That's not to say that 2 or 3 of those other young kids won't be in the forward line - I just can't see them being our main target up forward so soon.

With due respect, I clearly rate them higher than you and am willing to put more eggs into that basket. I'll be quite surprised if 3 out of 4 aren't on our list long term, although it's obviously possible.
But that doesn't mean we just place all hope in these few guys. Unless something really significant changes from here to round 23, I agree we'll need a more mature KPF at season's end. We can't rely on 18-21yo's to carry the forward line just yet. I don't mind Dixon but he gets injured frequently and despite some potential has never really dominated a game. Still, we can't be too picky. He is big, strong, agile and can play key forward or ruck. I'd be more open to a big name trade in a couple years when we have a better idea of what our forward line looks like.

Also, in 4-5 years Close, McStay etc. would be reaching the peak of their powers, wouldn't they? 23, 24, 25 years old- there's been plenty of key forwards establish themselves by that age and play well in finals. I think there's probably a window from something like 2018-2021 where we should have a bunch of guys peaking at the same time.

 

[bato]

Yes it's a no for me on Dempsey. He hasn't improved or got any younger. I would rather look at someone like Curtly Hampton from GWS. Good player with good skills who isn't getting a game right now in a very good side. Has played 47 games is only 22 and could player either half back flank or half forward flank. Has plenty of upside to his game.

Saying that it's really Free agency or nothing for the club. We want to get players in who won't cost us picks or players and free agents naturally come with loads experience. I think outside of free agents the club will want to use it's draft picks unless a player who is to good to refuse wants to come to the Lions.

Full of talent no doubt, but he's really struggled at the Giants. Even though his disposal efficiency is always good-solid, his decision making isn't quite up to AFL standard.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Also, in 4-5 years Close, McStay etc. would be reaching the peak of their powers, wouldn't they? 23, 24, 25 years old- there's been plenty of key forwards establish themselves by that age and play well in finals. I think there's probably a window from something like 2018-2021 where we should have a bunch of guys peaking at the same time.

That's true, but I feel like with the age profile of the core of our list - Rocky, Redden, Rich, Christensen, Beams, Robinson, Zorko, Green - we should realistically be hoping to be in the bottom part of the 8 by next season, and then climbing from there. I just don't know if any of those prospects are going to be up to it.

I remember the hype that did exist around Cornelius for a while, even Retzlaff had a bit when he was playing well in the reserves - it wasn't too dissimilar to what we've seen around some of our young keys at the moment. To be honest, Ace probably ended up showing more than any of them have to this point in time. Obviously that's not saying they won't end up better players than him - but right now none of them have produced more at senior level than he did. Because of that, I struggle to be confident enough to bet that they will, or even are likely to.

I rate our list at the moment very highly. I think our defence is just about sorted for 7+ years at the moment, and our midfield is in a similar situation. Up forward is the major concern though. McStay is the only one who I've seen enough from to think he could genuinely be an elite forward prospect. Freeman showed a bit but is still way off the pace, Close has never really dominated a game in terms of actually kicking goals, and realistically Andrews shouldn't be playing senior footy right now - I think even he would probably agree with that.

 

[lionshine]

Wouldn't pay 2 first round picks for Patton has done 2 knee injuries may never be the same again

Well you can rest assured with the knowledge that the Lions would not trade two first round picks for Patton unless they had done their due diligence in regards to medical checks and what not before completing such a trade.

 

[PTizzle]

I remember the hype that did exist around Cornelius for a while, even Retzlaff had a bit when he was playing well in the reserves - it wasn't too dissimilar to what we've seen around some of our young keys at the moment. To be honest, Ace probably ended up showing more than any of them have to this point in time. Obviously that's not saying they won't end up better players than him - but right now none of them have produced more at senior level than he did.

I was going to debate this as I'm quite a fan of Close (although not as the main target as such, but probably for another post) and think he's been handy and should become a serviceable key forward, but Ace kicked 3 bags of 4 in 25 games and averaged 1.4 goals a game and 2 marks inside 50 a game. Not amazing stats but I'd love to add a player doing that in the forward line at the moment.

Possibly more a reflection of how dire our situation is than anything.

 

[SizeMatters]

IMO the Suns have a shocking medical team as I have stated previously. Look at their injury list since coming into the AFL and you will see a hell of a lot of soft tissue stuff. Maybe they are overworked or brought back too early from injury? Dixon has had soft tissue problems like the rest of the Suns list so nothing major like knee or foot problems. Dixon should be our number one target IMO and unlike the current crop of KPFs we have he has leadership potential. We need someone with a strong leadership up forward and we have been missing that since Brown has retired.