Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Azul]

Spent some time working on Barrow Island off the NW W.A coast. Lots of bloody big lizards

Taste like chicken?

 

[HARKER]

Agreed, but that is my concern, don't think his body will improve to allow him to play the football he was once capable of

I've held out wanting it to be the case and even saw great signs suggesting that would be the case two years ago, but I feel it would take a massive turnaround in his body being able to cope with what is required.....it's possible.....just not probable, unfortunately.

 

[RoyalParade]

So list management crystal ball gazing following Season 2017 ...

Out: Jacksch, Jones, Thomas, Boekhorst, Graham, Gorringe, Buckley (all delisted), Casboult, Kreuzer (free agents), Gibbs (trade) and Armfield (retired)

One more year: Simpson, White, Lamb, Wright, Rowe, Kerridge

Priority at draft and trading: midfield and ruck

None of that seems unreasonable.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Taste like chicken?

Class A Protected Zone. You such much as fart in the direction of a bandicoot and you got the sack. Serious.

 

[therubbernub]

I'm happy if he has good output this year but he represents one of the worst recruiting decisions in our history.

And I'm not just talking about his contract. I mean the process, the reasons and the knock on effects of his signing should be a case study for all future admin decisions as what not to do.

I think they should close the door on his career as soon as possible and put that era behind us.

need to move on. If you take all the emotional angst away from the Thomas decision and just evaluate him as a player, surely if he is able to perform at say a B level and pay him as such, then why not?

 

[LanceRomance]

I've held out wanting it to be the case and even saw great signs suggesting that would be the case two years ago, but I feel it would take a massive turnaround in his body being able to cope with what is required.....it's possible.....just not probable, unfortunately.

The Shoulder injury that richmond potato gave him was the end

 

[thylacine60]

Class A Protected Zone. You such much as fart in the direction of a bandicoot and you got the sack. Serious.

good to hear

 

[passmark]

need to move on. If you take all the emotional angst away from the Thomas decision and just evaluate him as a player, surely if he is able to perform at say a B level and pay him as such, then why not?

I haven't seen him able to perform at B level for more than 1 game I think in his time here.

So his output and the circumstances of his hiring don't add up to keeping him.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Does anyone have a definite list of players who's contracts expire at the end of 2017.

From memory the ones i have

Arnfield - IMO likely to retire at end of year having had a very good career with the blues. 40/60
Boekhurst - Needs to show something but i would expect him to be extended. 70/30
Buckley- Last chance and would need to play 15+ games and be a solid contributer. 40/60 to stay/go
Levi - Writing is on the wall, if the young forwards push him out of the side then he will be gone, if they dont come on as well as expected he gets another go 50/50
Gorringe - Gone 10/90
Graham - Same as Buckley 40/60
Jaksch - Is coming from a long way back and we have filled our list with similar defenders and no longer see a future at the club for him 20/80
Jones - Gone unless something drastic happens 10/90
Kruezar - Is a free agent, but would expect to stay especially if he plays 15+ good games. 70/30
Phillips - I rate Phillips and think he might end up a better option than Humfrey should be offered at least another year 70/30
Rowe - A lot will depend on how well Weitering, Alex Silvagni, Plowman & Marchbank work together and may get to a place where there is no room for Sammy.. The advantage of having depth in a position. Is a chance to reinvent himself forward.. 50/50
Simpson - Seems ageless and if he wants to play on we let him. 50/50
Thomas - Big year for Daisy, i dont think anyone now sees him as a $700k player but if Daisy can contribute he still might be an asset provided he is prepared to play for minimum chips. 40/60
Whiley - Unless something drastic happens over pre season he will gone. Not good enough for AFL 20/80
White - Similar to Rowe, hopefully enough kids overtake him that there is no place for him. 40/60

So based on that i would have 6 definite, 8 maybes & 3 unlikely.. If half of the maybes go then we are in for another busy off season next year.

 

[Stefchook]

Does anyone have a definite list of players who's contracts expire at the end of 2017.

From memory the ones i have

Arnfield - IMO likely to retire at end of year having had a very good career with the blues. 40/60
Boekhurst - Needs to show something but i would expect him to be extended. 70/30
Buckley- Last chance and would need to play 15+ games and be a solid contributer. 40/60 to stay/go
Levi - Writing is on the wall, if the young forwards push him out of the side then he will be gone, if they dont come on as well as expected he gets another go 50/50
Gorringe - Gone 10/90
Graham - Same as Buckley 40/60
Jaksch - Is coming from a long way back and we have filled our list with similar defenders and no longer see a future at the club for him 20/80
Jones - Gone unless something drastic happens 10/90
Kruezar - Is a free agent, but would expect to stay especially if he plays 15+ good games. 70/30
Phillips - I rate Phillips and think he might end up a better option than Humfrey should be offered at least another year 70/30
Rowe - A lot will depend on how well Weitering, Alex Silvagni, Plowman & Marchbank work together and may get to a place where there is no room for Sammy.. The advantage of having depth in a position. Is a chance to reinvent himself forward.. 50/50
Simpson - Seems ageless and if he wants to play on we let him. 50/50
Thomas - Big year for Daisy, i dont think anyone now sees him as a $700k player but if Daisy can contribute he still might be an asset provided he is prepared to play for minimum chips. 40/60
Whiley - Unless something drastic happens over pre season he will gone. Not good enough for AFL 20/80
White - Similar to Rowe, hopefully enough kids overtake him that there is no place for him. 40/60

So based on that i would have 6 definite, 8 maybes & 3 unlikely.. If half of the maybes go then we are in for another busy off season next year.

Can't see Whiley staying on the list. Since he's already off.

Armfield and Jones would have to be certainties. Can't see Gorringe making the necessary improvement unfortunately. Can't see us keeping both White and Alex Silvagni on the list for another year. At least one to go. I doubt Graham will make it.

I'd then place Boekhorst, Buckley, Casboult, Jaksch, Rowe, Simmo and Thomas in my next group.

We're stuck with Kreuzer now. And Phillips is the future.

 

[Soapy V]

Can't see Whiley staying on the list. Since he's already off.

Armfield and Jones would have to be certainties. Can't see Gorringe making the necessary improvement unfortunately. Can't see us keeping both White and Alex Silvagni on the list for another year. At least one to go. I doubt Graham will make it.

I'd then place Boekhorst, Buckley, Casboult, Jaksch, Rowe, Simmo and Thomas in my next group.

We're stuck with Kreuzer now. And Phillips is the future.

Why are people so keen to get rid of Rowe? Had a very good year and even as we get better he will be a handy player to have on the list for the next 2-3 seasons. Can play back, forward or ruck. Does a job and usually well. No star but a good role player. If he stays fit I'd definitely keep him even if its a back up playing most time in the reserves.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Arnfield - IMO likely to retire at end of year having had a very good career with the blues. 40/60

He'll be back...

 

[Blue__Balls]

Why are people so keen to get rid of Rowe? Had a very good year and even as we get better he will be a handy player to have on the list for the next 2-3 seasons. Can play back, forward or ruck. Does a job and usually well. No star but a good role player. If he stays fit I'd definitely keep him even if its a back up playing most time in the reserves.

Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Glass-McCasker, Jaksch - all genuine KPD's (some capable of swinging forward).
Silvagni, White, Smedts, Williamson, Sheehan - not quite KPP size, but tall enough to play a defensive role if required.

The ones in bold are long-term prospects -Jaksch could join that group if he pulls his finger out this season, while Smedts and Sheehan could forge reasonable careers if their bodies hold out this season.

Rowe, Silvagni and White are providing experienced bodies while the others develop, but by the end of 2017 we'll hopefully have Plowman and Weitering on 60 and 40 games each respectively. I think White probably holds on a bit longer than Rowe if we're talking defensive depth as he can play on smaller opponents as well, and Silvagni (provided he shows something this year) is probably a blend of the other two, so may pip them both.

Rowe's future may depend on him getting a chance up forward. Which isn't a criticism of him, as he's done very well for a rookie draftee and is a genuine AFL player in my book, but is just a realistic evaluation of how we've chosen to develop our list.

 

[Soapy V]

Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Glass-McCasker, Jaksch - all genuine KPD's (some capable of swinging forward).
Silvagni, White, Smedts, Williamson, Sheehan - not quite KPP size, but tall enough to play a defensive role if required.

The ones in bold are long-term prospects -Jaksch could join that group if he pulls his finger out this season, while Smedts and Sheehan could forge reasonable careers if their bodies hold out this season.

Rowe, Silvagni and White are providing experienced bodies while the others develop, but by the end of 2017 we'll hopefully have Plowman and Weitering on 60 and 40 games each respectively. I think White probably holds on a bit longer than Rowe if we're talking defensive depth as he can play on smaller opponents as well, and Silvagni (provided he shows something this year) is probably a blend of the other two, so may pip them both.

Rowe's future may depend on him getting a chance up forward. Which isn't a criticism of him, as he's done very well for a rookie draftee and is a genuine AFL player in my book, but is just a realistic evaluation of how we've chosen to develop our list.

fair points but I still think he should be kept on the list whilst they develop. just to good a back up and many others to go before him. could very well depend if guys like jaksch or gorringe stand up as well.

 

[Blue__Balls]

fair points but I still think he should be kept on the list whilst they develop. just to good a back up and many others to go before him. could very well depend if guys like jaksch or gorringe stand up as well.

Yep - comes down to how much development is required.

Plowman already has almost 40 games under his belt, Weitering played 20 in his first season and will only miss through injury from here on out. Marchbank is in single figures, but has a few preseasons in him, so should start to build some continuity now. JGM got a number upgrade, to Jamo's number as well, which would seemingly indicate the club is happy with his progress so far.

By the end of next season, all four blokes could be well ahead of Rowe, with Macreadie "under development". At that point, I reckon we need to choose one of Rowe, Silvagni and White to retain, unless the others can offer something elsewhere on the ground.

I hope we stick with the young guys down back this year, give Rowe a spot in our forward goal square, and let the younger forwards loose a bit further from goal.

 

[Funk]

We have 12 players on the list who are 195cm or taller.

Of that 12, there are only 3 or 4 who are proven or we have any genuine faith in.

To add insult to injury, one of them is a midfielder (and a damn good one at that).

From a poster who should know!!!!

 

[Funk]

Class A Protected Zone. You such much as fart in the direction of a bandicoot and you got the sack. Serious.

So no beans on site?

 

[The Smoking Gun]

So no beans on site?

Shit no!!! Between the LNG plant and petroleum facility there are enough explosive mixtures there already.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

The Thing is, I genuinely think Casboult has the talent and ability to be a 50 plus a year goal kicker, that's what's so frustrating, although to be fair, he hasn't had much support, plus the delivery to him in the past few years has been diabolical.

Can't make excuses for him missing sodas that most fowards could kick blind folded, plus the occasions where he just drops the bundle and doesn't bother to actually go out and chase, try win the ball in the red zone.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Shit no!!! Between the LNG plant and petroleum facility there are enough explosive mixtures there already.

PHWOAR !!!

 

[therubbernub]

I haven't seen him able to perform at B level for more than 1 game I think in his time here.

So his output and the circumstances of his hiring don't add up to keeping him.

I will defer to player rankings. I probably regard 6 and 7 rankings as a B performance http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/110972/Dale-THOMAS

 

[therubbernub]

Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank, Macreadie, Rowe, Glass-McCasker, Jaksch - all genuine KPD's (some capable of swinging forward).
Silvagni, White, Smedts, Williamson, Sheehan - not quite KPP size, but tall enough to play a defensive role if required.

The ones in bold are long-term prospects -Jaksch could join that group if he pulls his finger out this season, while Smedts and Sheehan could forge reasonable careers if their bodies hold out this season.

Rowe, Silvagni and White are providing experienced bodies while the others develop, but by the end of 2017 we'll hopefully have Plowman and Weitering on 60 and 40 games each respectively. I think White probably holds on a bit longer than Rowe if we're talking defensive depth as he can play on smaller opponents as well, and Silvagni (provided he shows something this year) is probably a blend of the other two, so may pip them both.

Rowe's future may depend on him getting a chance up forward. Which isn't a criticism of him, as he's done very well for a rookie draftee and is a genuine AFL player in my book, but is just a realistic evaluation of how we've chosen to develop our list.

He is good cheap insurance, and noone can argue that he is keeping another KPP out for development- we have plenty of developing KPP. Tries his heart out. Probably his best role is to add flexibility and also to keep the youngsters honest

 

[Arr0w]

The Thing is, I genuinely think Casboult has the talent and ability to be a 50 plus a year goal kicker, that's what's so frustrating, although to be fair, he hasn't had much support, plus the delivery to him in the past few years has been diabolical.

Can't make excuses for him missing sodas that most fowards could kick blind folded, plus the occasions where he just drops the bundle and doesn't bother to actually go out and chase, try win the ball in the red zone.

You make some great points especially highlighting the following "he hasn't had much support, plus the delivery to him in the past few years has been diabolical". IMHO, Casboult should be played as a high CHF, which mitigates the stress of his poor kicking. His strength has always been his contested marking and splitting packs. Allowing him to play away from the goal square will also alleviate the pressure when kicking at goal, similar to what Matthew Richardson did later in his career

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Does anyone have a definite list of players who's contracts expire at the end of 2017.

From memory the ones i have

Arnfield - IMO likely to retire at end of year having had a very good career with the blues. 40/60
Boekhurst - Needs to show something but i would expect him to be extended. 70/30
Buckley- Last chance and would need to play 15+ games and be a solid contributer. 40/60 to stay/go
Levi - Writing is on the wall, if the young forwards push him out of the side then he will be gone, if they dont come on as well as expected he gets another go 50/50
Gorringe - Gone 10/90
Graham - Same as Buckley 40/60
Jaksch - Is coming from a long way back and we have filled our list with similar defenders and no longer see a future at the club for him 20/80
Jones - Gone unless something drastic happens 10/90
Kruezar - Is a free agent, but would expect to stay especially if he plays 15+ good games. 70/30
Phillips - I rate Phillips and think he might end up a better option than Humfrey should be offered at least another year 70/30
Rowe - A lot will depend on how well Weitering, Alex Silvagni, Plowman & Marchbank work together and may get to a place where there is no room for Sammy.. The advantage of having depth in a position. Is a chance to reinvent himself forward.. 50/50
Simpson - Seems ageless and if he wants to play on we let him. 50/50
Thomas - Big year for Daisy, i dont think anyone now sees him as a $700k player but if Daisy can contribute he still might be an asset provided he is prepared to play for minimum chips. 40/60
Whiley - Unless something drastic happens over pre season he will gone. Not good enough for AFL 20/80
White - Similar to Rowe, hopefully enough kids overtake him that there is no place for him. 40/60

So based on that i would have 6 definite, 8 maybes & 3 unlikely.. If half of the maybes go then we are in for another busy off season next year.

I would suggest that the likes of White, Whiley, Jaksch, Jones, Gorringe are 100% assured of being moved on. Buckley, Graham and Thomas would be 75% chance of moving on. Armfield, Rowe, Levi are all 50/ 50 for me. What decides it is how they are performing in 2017. Simpson, I would suggest, will likely make the call on playing 2018 in conjunction with SOS and Bolton.

 

[Funk]

He is good cheap insurance, and noone can argue that he is keeping another KPP out for development- we have plenty of developing KPP. Tries his heart out. Probably his best role is to add flexibility and also to keep the youngsters honest

In practical terms I think Rowe is very valuable.

Teams need mature back ups for ruck, KPD and KPF.

The 1 player: Rowe can do all these on our list.

This in turn frees up more list spots to create more depth OR development spots for other players.

IMO the list manager would think players like him are gold.

Could even call him a "hybrid"????