Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[passmark]

...not many teams lining up to take our discards either. Robinson and Garlett gone for reasons other than ability.

Hard to believe you can move on 30+ players in three years and, apart from a trade or two

I will defer to player rankings. I probably regard 6 and 7 rankings as a B performance http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/110972/Dale-THOMAS
View attachment 316821 View attachment 316822

Those ranking surprise me, but 2015 still looked pretty shit for a $600k player.

Close the door on his career. He's a failed decision.

 

[therubbernub]

...not many teams lining up to take our discards either. Robinson and Garlett gone for reasons other than ability.

Hard to believe you can move on 30+ players in three years and, apart from a trade or two


Those ranking surprise me, but 2015 still looked pretty shit for a $600k player.

Close the door on his career. He's a failed decision.

Agree for a 600k player no doubt. But put a 2 in front of it.... not too shabby!

 

[passmark]

Agree for a 600k player no doubt. But put a 2 in front of it.... not too shabby!

I disagree.

He's surplus to requirements.

 

[LordLucifer]

I posted this in another list management thread :

SACKED
Buckley (on a one year contract)
Casboult (on a one year contract)
(R) Galluci (second-time around on the rookie list)
Graham (on a one year contract)
Jaksch (contract runs out)
Jones (contract runs out)
Lamb (contract runs out)
Rowe (contract runs out)
(R) Sheehan (gazillionth time around on the rookie list)
Thomas (contract runs out)
White (contract runs out)

CRACKED
Armfield (might be kept longer in a mentoring role)
Boekhorst (time to piss or get off the pot)
Gibbs (could he be traded this time ??)
(R) Glass-McCasker (kick on son, we need you to make it)
Gorringe (he's been around the AFL long enough, delivery time is now)
(R) LeBois (hopefully he can give us something)
(R) Korchek (will be a great story if he succeeds)
Kreuzer (could he be traded ??)
Marchbank (no free rides, has to prove himself at Carlton)
Palmer (no free rides, has to prove himself at Carlton)
Pickett (no free rides, has to prove himself at Carlton)
(R) A. Silvagni (clearly a short-term option only)
Smedts (no free rides, has to prove himself at Carlton)

BACKED
Byrne (upgrade from rookie list)
C.Curnow
Cripps
Cuningham
Docherty
E. Curnow
Fisher
Kerr
Kerridge (may be a short-term option)
MacCreadie
McKay
Murphy
Petrevski-Seton
Phillips
Plowman
Polson
Silvagni
Simpson (may only be short-term due to retirement)
Sumner
Weitering
Williamson
Wright (short-term)

With 11 names on the Sacked List, there is still scope for another massive turnover of players at the end of 2017. At this stage, it's hard to mount a case for any of them being retained, however, it's not out of the question for 1 or 2 of the younger guys to develop further and escape the scrutiny.

13 players in the Cracked section, if 6 of them can graduate to the Backed List, that will mean we will have 28 players in for the possible long-haul. Naturally, there will be some older players who slide down the rankings, it happens to them all eventually.

All new draftees are fully assessed after two seasons and only then are they possibly moved off the Backed List.

Whilst our overall list is getting better each year, there is still a lot of work to be done before we are a genuine Top 4 aspirant.

The other important thing that a lot of people may be overlooking is that whilst the club has entered a 66-game "reset", it actually means we will work within four (4) trade & draft periods to get our list right, not three (3).

We are only halfway there at present.

 

[Jeremias]

I mentioned earlier that there could be 15 or so players moved on at the end of 2017. FWIW those players are:

1. Gibbs: Will Adelaide come knocking again?

2. Simpson: Will he go around again in 2018?

3. Buckley: Survived the cull this year but wouldn't want a bad year in 2017.

4. Kreuzer: Free Agency awaits. The offers may come if he has another injury-free year.

5. Boekhorst: Out of contract and would want to deliver on the talent he possesses.

6. Lamb: We're not short on talent when it comes to small forwards. Can he keep up with the pack?

7. Jones: Reckon he needs a miracle. Odds on to be the first name let go.

8. Rowe: May find himself surplus to requirements by the end of the year, given the talls we've recruited.

9. Jaksch: I like KJ but with one more year on his contract he is clearly running out of time.

10. Armfield: Signed a one year deal but has interests elsewhere now. Reckon this will be his final year.

11. Graham: Same situation as Buckley.

12. Gorringe: Brought in on a 2 year deal, needs a big year to earn another contract.

13. Thomas: Needs to pull a party trick to stay on beyond 2017.

14. Casboult: One year deal and Free Agency awaits after that. I suspect we will be happy to see him move elsewhere.

15. White: Handy depth player capable at both ends, but may be pushed out in favour of youth.

All of the above are in some danger of not being around in 2018. Obviously not all will make way - but I think we could quite easily see another 10+ changes made, without raising a sweat.

 

[therubbernub]

IMO

1. Gibbs: Will Adelaide come knocking again? No that deal has gone. gibbs will stay a blue now

2. Simpson: Will he go around again in 2018? yes he is still playing well and is resilient

3. Buckley: Survived the cull this year but wouldn't want a bad year in 2017. Perhaps gone

4. Kreuzer: Free Agency awaits. The offers may come if he has another injury-free year. If he gets injured no one will want. If he plays well we will want, If he doesnt play well noome will want

5. Boekhorst: Out of contract and would want to deliver on the talent he possesses. Needs to be given an injury free run, has the talent

6. Lamb: We're not short on talent when it comes to small forwards. Can he keep up with the pack? I think gone

7. Jones: Reckon he needs a miracle. Odds on to be the first name let go. Probably gone

8. Rowe: May find himself surplus to requirements by the end of the year, given the talls we've recruited. Not gone. highly flexible player and rated internally

9. Jaksch: I like KJ but with one more year on his contract he is clearly running out of time. He knows its showtime. Might finally pull the finger out. maybe gone

10. Armfield: Signed a one year deal but has interests elsewhere now. Reckon this will be his final year. Yep

11. Graham: Same situation as Buckley. Yep

12. Gorringe: Brought in on a 2 year deal, needs a big year to earn another contract. I think they might develop him as depth forward ruck

13. Thomas: Needs to pull a party trick to stay on beyond 2017. is ok to stay on greatly depreciated contract. sets a good example

14. Casboult: One year deal and Free Agency awaits after that. I suspect we will be happy to see him move elsewhere. Stays if he gels within the new forward line. may thrive not being the only target

15. White: Handy depth player capable at both ends, but may be pushed out in favour of youth. No stays. he is really flexible and tries his guts out

All of the above are in some danger of not being around in 2018. Obviously not all will make way - but I think we could quite easily see another 10+ changes made, without raising a sweat.

 

[thylacine60]

we are not fair dinkum as long as we have the likes of white running around in navy

 

[bmaurizio]

In our postion there'll be at least another 8 players delisted, 1 to 2 retirements and a few trades the usual 10 to 12 players upgraded.
2017 list refreshment should be the last of the bigger revisions and modifications.
Bolton will have a strong group of players from which to start giving us results in a few years.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

In our postion there'll be at least another 8 players delisted, 1 to 2 retirements and a few trades the usual 10 to 12 players upgraded.
2017 list refreshment should be the last of the bigger revisions and modifications.
Bolton will have a strong group of players from which to start giving us results in a few years.

Who are the out of contract Giants we should start monitoring there NEAL form?

 

[Blue__Balls]

2017 Draft Prospects spending next two weeks at AFL clubs:

WHO IS TRAINING AT YOUR CLUB?

Adelaide: Jordan Houlahan, Darcy Fogarty, Callum Coleman-Jones
Brisbane Lions: Jack Clayton, Connor Ballenden
Carlton: Lochie O'Brien, Joel Garner
Collingwood: Jack Higgins, Aidan Quigley
Essendon: Noah Balta
Fremantle: Jake Patmore
Geelong: James Worpel, Paddy Dow
Gold Coast: Dominic Grant, Brayden Crossley, Kwaby Boakye
Greater Western Sydney: Charlie Spargo, Jarrod Brander, Jack Powell, Nathan Richards
Hawthorn: Changbuoth Jiath, Sam Hayes
Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke, Oscar Clavarino
North Melbourne: Jaidyn Stephenson
Port Adelaide: Andrew McPherson, Thomas Schmusch
Richmond: Patrick Naish, Kane Farrell
St Kilda: Hunter Clark, Tom De Koning
Sydney: Hayden McLean
West Coast: Aaron Darling, Sam Taylor
Western Bulldogs: Cameron Rayner, Lachlan Fogarty

 

[Jimmae]

Struggling to see how we'll manage more than 10 delistings given we don't have much in the way of trade bait.

If we bring in two or more free agents, I doubt we'll bother let anyone out the other way aside from Casboult, as the loss of Kreuzer is only worth our time if he can net us a pick (unless something spectacularly bad happens on the injury front).

I reckon Lamb, Jones, White, Jaksch, Armfield, and Graham are the first batch jettisoned, then it's your pick of two of Phillips, Casboult and Gorringe.

That's 8 gone, and with say 4 coming in via FA/trade, that's 4 picks at the draft. Unless we manage to get more out of Adelaide this time around, I don't see us cutting much deeper unless there's serious value in the later rounds of the draft or we have Cat B/FS/academy talent earmarked.

The next batch is Simpson, Boekhorst, Buckley, Sumner, Rowe and Kreuzer, but those are highly conditional on what comes in. We'd need a really good haul through FA/trade to cut more than one of them.

People moan about how much we still need to bring through the door, but if the list progresses overall to the point where Boekhorst and Buckley are clearly in our bottom 10 at the club, we're doing very well IMO. I think some have unrealistic expectations about what list depth looks like.

 

[MightyMighties]

Agree for a 600k player no doubt. But put a 2 in front of it.... not too shabby!

2600K?

 

[rp84]

we are not fair dinkum as long as we have the likes of white running around in navy

ditto for Daisy. I'm not sure what value people see in him. Too many people being influenced by his form well before he was injured and a Blue. Offers nothing more than the 44th player on our list. I would prefer to see a half fit LeBois get a game before Daisy. Maybe he can donate some post-footy time to CFC after stealing a paycheck for the last few years (I know its not his fault, and he does seem like a genuinely nice guy).

 

[rp84]

Good list. My thoughts...

I mentioned earlier that there could be 15 or so players moved on at the end of 2017. FWIW those players are:

1. Gibbs: Will Adelaide come knocking again? Absolutely gone.

2. Simpson: Will he go around again in 2018? Possible but will be easier to tell at the end of 2017. If he is borderline AA, he will play on.

3. Buckley: Survived the cull this year but wouldn't want a bad year in 2017. Gawn.

4. Kreuzer: Free Agency awaits. The offers may come if he has another injury-free year. Most likely stays around at the blues on a middling contract playing middling football.

5. Boekhorst: Out of contract and would want to deliver on the talent he possesses. Hard to read. Has been unlucky with injuries and has shown more glimpses than a lot on this list. Seems out of favour.

6. Lamb: We're not short on talent when it comes to small forwards. Can he keep up with the pack? Fell right down the pecking order, but certainly played some ok footy this year.

7. Jones: Reckon he needs a miracle. Odds on to be the first name let go. GAWN.

8. Rowe: May find himself surplus to requirements by the end of the year, given the talls we've recruited. Stays until one of Macreadie or JGM are ready for (not necessarily playing) senior footy.

9. Jaksch: I like KJ but with one more year on his contract he is clearly running out of time. Always hoped he would come on, just so it feels like GWS didn't go in dry on that deal. Can't see it after his efforts in 2016.

10. Armfield: Signed a one year deal but has interests elsewhere now. Reckon this will be his final year. Great servant, will not get another go after this year. Shouldn't get any senior footy this year.

11. Graham: Same situation as Buckley. VFL for the year and delist. Love him to prove me wrong, but doubt it.

12. Gorringe: Brought in on a 2 year deal, needs a big year to earn another contract. Most likely gone, but depends on our ruck stocks. Might get another 1yr contract if we cat pluck a decent backup from elsewhere.

13. Thomas: Needs to pull a party trick to stay on beyond 2017. This has to end now (2017). Should not get anywhere near the senior team this year. Love him to show some leadership and coaching ability in the seconds.

14. Casboult: One year deal and Free Agency awaits after that. I suspect we will be happy to see him move elsewhere. Freeagency beckons. Someone (?Richmond) will be wooed by this flawed one-trick pony.

15. White: Handy depth player capable at both ends, but may be pushed out in favour of youth. Only gets a one year contract if Macreadie or JGM aren't projected to be ready by the end of 2017. Would think one of him or Rowe stays.

All of the above are in some danger of not being around in 2018. Obviously not all will make way - but I think we could quite easily see another 10+ changes made, without raising a sweat.

 

[Soapy V]

One more trade period of 8-12 changes. delistings or retirements will come from the following:

Buckley
Casboult
Graham
Jaksch
Jones
Lamb
Sheehan
Thomas
White
Armfield
Boekhorst
Kerridge
Wright
Gorringe
A. Silvagni
Sumner
Korchek

This doesn't include possible trades.

Given what we have added over the past 2 years another trade/draft period of the same will have us with a very exciting list. Added to that is the possibility of 1 or 2 elite players from other clubs.

 

[Malifice]

I can't see another turnover of more than 10 players. That would make it something like 40 players in 3 years. It's a little too drastic.

When pruning a tree you don't want to cut back too savagely or you kill the thing.

Also while I'm down with the youth path you don't want to gut the list of experience too soon and too deeply. You need a solid core of experience around.

What we need to do is get 40 odd games into the current list playing together. That should be the focus over the next 2 years, with recruiting focused on plugging holes as they are identified.

Well be adding a key forward and a mid next draft. Plus hopefully a marquee free agent. We're set for Key backs and look OK for rucks (it's a huge year for Korcheck) with Phillips and McKay as a forward/ ruck option.

Blokes like Rowe and Buckley stay for mine. Rowe is needed for a year or two of experience in our backline for the younger key backs to develop around. Buckley shows enough to keep for depth if nothing else. He's borderline best 22 and plays a role. He's been around long enough to provide experience (like Army has done the past few years).

We're likely to lose a lot of experience next year with Gibbs set to look to leave again, MK fielding a FA offer, Thomas on the way out, and Simpson close to retiring. Jones should be shown the door as well. Looking over the list that doesn't leave us much in the way of experience.

It's partly why I'm keen on getting a FA in next year. We need that experience and fresh eyes from an outside club to anchor some of the younger guys.

We should be looking for 2 picks in the 1st round (presuming we do the Gibbs dance again) and a 500k offer to MK nets us a second rounder for him. We pick up a KPF and a Mid to go with our FA and then in 2018 and 19 we push games into them, and again use those drafts to adress needs, and get in more FA.

2020 is the year we should have a FA or two, most of the list will be in that 22-28 year old bracket with 60 plus games playing together under their belts. That's the year I expect results.

 

[rp84]

I can't see another turnover of more than 10 players. That would make it something like 40 players in 3 years. It's a little too drastic.

When pruning a tree you don't want to cut back too savagely or you kill the thing.

Also while I'm down with the youth path you don't want to gut the list of experience too soon and too deeply. You need a solid core of experience around.

What we need to do is get 40 odd games into the current list playing together. That should be the focus over the next 2 years, with recruiting focused on plugging holes as they are identified.

Well be adding a key forward and a mid next draft. Plus hopefully a marquee free agent. We're set for Key backs and look OK for rucks (it's a huge year for Korcheck) with Phillips and McKay as a forward/ ruck option.

Blokes like Rowe and Buckley stay for mine. Rowe is needed for a year or two of experience in our backline for the younger key backs to develop around. Buckley shows enough to keep for depth if nothing else. He's borderline best 22 and plays a role. He's been around long enough to provide experience (like Army has done the past few years).

We're likely to lose a lot of experience next year with Gibbs set to look to leave again, MK fielding a FA offer, Thomas on the way out, and Simpson close to retiring. Jones should be shown the door as well. Looking over the list that doesn't leave us much in the way of experience.

It's partly why I'm keen on getting a FA in next year. We need that experience and fresh eyes from an outside club to anchor some of the younger guys.

We should be looking for 2 picks in the 1st round (presuming we do the Gibbs dance again) and a 500k offer to MK nets us a second rounder for him. We pick up a KPF and a Mid to go with our FA and then in 2018 and 19 we push games into them, and again use those drafts to adress needs, and get in more FA.

2020 is the year we should have a FA or two, most of the list will be in that 22-28 year old bracket with 60 plus games playing together under their belts. That's the year I expect results.

People have said this basically every year, but looking at the list 10+ players off is a distinct possibility.
The list of very likely is quite long:
1. Jones
2. Armfield
3. Buckley
4. Graham
5. Thomas
6. Gibbs (if you think he will still want to move, which I think he will)

Then the other maybes like:
7. White
8. Rowe
9. Casboult
10. Lamb
11. Jacksch

All of these guys could be moved on and we wouldn't really lose very much (bar Gibbs)

 

[tipstar]

I can't see another turnover of more than 10 players. That would make it something like 40 players in 3 years. It's a little too drastic.

When pruning a tree you don't want to cut back too savagely or you kill the thing.

Also while I'm down with the youth path you don't want to gut the list of experience too soon and too deeply. You need a solid core of experience around.

What we need to do is get 40 odd games into the current list playing together. That should be the focus over the next 2 years, with recruiting focused on plugging holes as they are identified.

Well be adding a key forward and a mid next draft. Plus hopefully a marquee free agent. We're set for Key backs and look OK for rucks (it's a huge year for Korcheck) with Phillips and McKay as a forward/ ruck option.

Blokes like Rowe and Buckley stay for mine. Rowe is needed for a year or two of experience in our backline for the younger key backs to develop around. Buckley shows enough to keep for depth if nothing else. He's borderline best 22 and plays a role. He's been around long enough to provide experience (like Army has done the past few years).

We're likely to lose a lot of experience next year with Gibbs set to look to leave again, MK fielding a FA offer, Thomas on the way out, and Simpson close to retiring. Jones should be shown the door as well. Looking over the list that doesn't leave us much in the way of experience.

It's partly why I'm keen on getting a FA in next year. We need that experience and fresh eyes from an outside club to anchor some of the younger guys.

We should be looking for 2 picks in the 1st round (presuming we do the Gibbs dance again) and a 500k offer to MK nets us a second rounder for him. We pick up a KPF and a Mid to go with our FA and then in 2018 and 19 we push games into them, and again use those drafts to adress needs, and get in more FA.

2020 is the year we should have a FA or two, most of the list will be in that 22-28 year old bracket with 60 plus games playing together under their belts. That's the year I expect results.

In amongst all the doom and gloom and people predicting 10-15 changes before a ball is kicked in anger, here is the most balanced post I have read on this thread...

I personally think anyone that has been selected by Bolts and SOS aren't going anywhere unless they have absolute stinkers they will be given all the time they need.

The players that are still on the list that Bolts and SOS have inherited, again unless they have stinkers and are out of contract at the years end will probably be safe (besides Jones, even I will submit that he's done.)

 

[Soapy V]

In amongst all the doom and gloom and people predicting 10-15 changes before a ball is kicked in anger, here is the most balanced post I have read on this thread...

why is it doom and gloom? I think it's great. It is just part of the 66 game rebuild the club set down and is following through. It's not about what we get rid of it's about the talent we bring in. After next year it will be about constantly refreshing the list each year. we had a lot of deadwood on the list and now most is gone but the job isn't finished yet. not a negative at all, actually bloody exciting

 

[rp84]

why is it doom and gloom? I think it's great. It is just part of the 66 game rebuild the club set down and is following through. It's not about what we get rid of it's about the talent we bring in. After next year it will be about constantly refreshing the list each year. we had a lot of deadwood on the list and now most is gone but the job isn't finished yet. not a negative at all, actually bloody exciting

Agreed. Its not doom and gloom to suggest a team who has regularly lost to Brisbane (and the Essendon VFL team) might have some players that aren't up to being part of a flag tilt.

 

[Malifice]

People have said this basically every year, but looking at the list 10+ players off is a distinct possibility.
The list of very likely is quite long:
1. Jones
2. Armfield
3. Buckley
4. Graham
5. Thomas
6. Gibbs (if you think he will still want to move, which I think he will)

Then the other maybes like:
7. White
8. Rowe
9. Casboult
10. Lamb
11. Jacksch

All of these guys could be moved on and we wouldn't really lose very much (bar Gibbs)

This is why I think blokes like Buckley, Rowe, Casboult and co will get another year.

We can't afford to lose (Gibbs, Jones, Thomas, Kruezer, Armfield, White, Casboult, Buckley) all in one hit.

It leaves us with pretty much Murphy as the only experienced player.

We need another 40 games into Cripps and the other youngsters.

We don't want to cut too heavily and Rowe, White, Buckley etc all provide experience, depth and stability for the youngsters to build around.

We want them forced out of the side by better talent. Not pushed out for the sake of it.

 

[rp84]

This is why I think blokes like Buckley, Rowe, Casboult and co will get another year.

We can't afford to lose (Gibbs, Jones, Thomas, Kruezer, Armfield, White, Casboult, Buckley) all in one hit.

It leaves us with pretty much Murphy as the only experienced player.

We need another 40 games into Cripps and the other youngsters.

We don't want to cut too heavily and Rowe, White, Buckley etc all provide experience, depth and stability for the youngsters to build around.

We want them forced out of the side by better talent. Not pushed out for the sake of it.

Well, I do think either Rowe or White stay, as cover for talls during development. All of the named players will be pushed out for better talent. These guys mostly are barely AFL standard.

We have other experienced players such as Doc, Ed, Wright, possibly Simpson. Cripps will be going into his 5th AFL season in 2018. Hardly inexperienced. I am hopeful every player brought in this year could be better than the possible outs.

I don't like the idea of keeping experienced players for the sake of it....if they are below average players.

The chances are we get one or more senior players into the lineup via freeagency. Then, potential trades. I would be looking for 5 at the draft (especially if we can get two first rounders, and hopefully two high second rounders), hopefully upgrading Sheehan if his body comes good, as well as hopefully promoting LeBois or Galluci if they perform. We will need 9 or 10 spots for this.

 

[Soapy V]

We have other experienced players such as Doc, Ed, Wright, possibly Simpson. Cripps will be going into his 5th AFL season in 2018. Hardly inexperienced. I am hopeful every player brought in this year could be better than the possible outs.

agree. i don't get the no experience argument. there is heaps plus cripps weitering have real leadership qualities. I don't think it's an issue. We may also recuit one or two more genuine leaders as well.

Bottom line is I prefer to have exciting young talent on our list than carrying 7-8 not good enoughs. Rebuild to list so far has been great. One more year to go

 

[HARKER]

Remember also that we haven't a second rounder next year, either.
That along with the possibility of a weak draft and some will simply hang on for another year.

Dependent on how we see Ben for '18, we may want to trade our 2018 first for a 2017 first....May make sense to do so.

 

[Soapy V]

Remember also that we haven't a second rounder next year, either.
That along with the possibility of a weak draft and some will simply hang on for another year.

I never believe that stuff. Good recuiters will find good players. This year we effectively swapped a second rounder for 3 late picks. Seemed to work out well. Nothing stopping us from trading more future picks, getting picks for gibbs or kruezer, trading one pick for numerous picks, FA's, a few rookie upgrades etc. There are always ways. The key then is to then get good players with whatever picks we have. So far under the new regime it seems to be going very well.

Onwards and upwards I say and after 20 years of watching very average players in Navy Blue I think what is happening now is awesome!






...............and a bloody relief.