Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[OnceKicked50]

So FA aside you are saying McGovern isnt worth a first round pick?

If West Coast decide not to match he will be worth a first round pick as compensation. As the ladder remains, it's clearly going to be under what his true trade value would be.

Personally, I don't think he is the type of player needed at Hawthorn. I actually think we have Sicily playing the same role, and he is much more damaging by foot.

 

[THE_GUN]

OK this is what i dont get with the entire McGovern thing

McGovern doesnt want to leave but wants more money
West Coast may not give him the $1 mil he wants (just plucking the number so may not be the amount)
Say North/Freo/StKilda offer him the $1 mil and he decides to take up the offer

Do West Coast match ?
If Yes then McGovern stays on $1 mil a year at west Coast and gets what he wants all along
If They dont match McGovern goes to North/Freo/Stkilda who ever and still gets what he wants
West Coast get #17-#20

McGovern either gets the $$$$ he wants or West Coast let him go for Compo otherwise its a non event and he signs so i dont get how it gets to the matching stage

 

[Wickzki]

McGovern either gets the $$$$ he wants or West Coast let him go for Compo otherwise its a non event and he signs so i dont get how it gets to the matching stage

West Coast tell McGovern, "Alright, Jeremy. We're letting the market set your price. Go out and get what you're worth. We'll be happy to match that. You're happy. We're happy. Done deal."

It happens in US sports such as the NBA regularly.

 

[THE_GUN]

West Coast tell McGovern, "Alright, Jeremy. We're letting the market set your price. Go out and get what you're worth. We'll be happy to match that. You're happy. We're happy. Done deal."

It happens in US sports such as the NBA regularly.

Enter North Melbourne into the equation 7 x $1.2 mil

 

[Yoda_]

Enter North Melbourne into the equation 7 x $1.2 mil

Nobody wants to go to LolNorf

 

[citizen-erased]

Nobody wants to go to LolNorf

ahem.
Billy Hartung and Alex Morgan beg to differ.

 

[Turbocat]

So if Freo get WC McG as a FA and want Crows McG. what is that trade going to cost them? Freo are not exactly flush with early picks?

 

[Joao]

So if Freo get WC McG as a FA and want Crows McG. what is that trade going to cost them? Freo are not exactly flush with early picks?

Agree, don't see how we could get MGov across. Pick 6 is too high and we don't have anything else.

 

[Turbocat]

Agree, don't see how we could get MGov across. Pick 6 is too high and we don't have anything else.

Too high..or too high a price. he would cost more than that imo

 

[Joao]

Too high..or too high a price. he would cost more than that imo

He is not worth pick 6 let alone more. I know he is contracted but he simply isn't that good.

I would expect Adelaide to ask for heaps (and rightly so) but I sincerely hope we don't entertain the idea (if we are even interested).

 

[Turbocat]

He is not worth pick 6 let alone more. I know he is contracted but he simply isn't that good.

I would expect Adelaide to ask for heaps (and rightly so) but I sincerely hope we don't entertain the idea (if we are even interested).

If he is no good why chase him . With all their recent losses ..the Crows would only want Fyfe etc.

 

[Sheezel2Wardlaw]

Nobody wants to go to LolNorf

Same old crap blah blah blah.
* can keep signing front runners like saad and stringer. How you blokes going this year?

 

[Benj7]

Same old crap blah blah blah.
* can keep signing front runners like saad and stringer. How you blokes going this year?

Don’t take the bait!

 

[Weiterbot23]

Mitch McGovern and pick 8/9 for pick 1.

Top 10 is pretty special this year.

I want the best mid in the draft

As it stands

If Walsh is pick 2 I'd do a swap with Brisbane and get something extra

Maybe doggies second for their second (3-4 pick upgrade).

Curnow already a star forward, plus McKay and even Kerr look likely imo.


McGov and 9 for pick 1 means we get the 4/5th best mid plus have to drop/trade Kerr/McKay

 

[Yoda_]

Same old crap blah blah blah.
* can keep signing front runners like saad and stringer. How you blokes going this year?

SSS aren't our problem. Two of the three are probably in the top 10 of our best and fairest whilst the third is leading our goal kicking.

 

[Joao]

If he is no good why chase him . With all their recent losses ..the Crows would only want Fyfe etc.

You can still be good but not worth pick 6+. I think he is worth pick 15-20 (that's my opinion Crows fans you can have you own). I wouldn't give up a top 10 pick for him unless he showed some consistency which he has never done.

In any event we don't really know who is chasing him. I hope it is not us because we'll have to overpay.

That said, he seems like the type of player that could suddenly go nuts and be AA so really what do I know?

 

[Turbocat]

You can still be good but not worth pick 6+. I think he is worth pick 15-20 (that's my opinion Crows fans you can have you own). I wouldn't give up a top 10 pick for him unless he showed some consistency which he has never done.

In any event we don't really know who is chasing him. I hope it is not us because we'll have to overpay.

That said, he seems like the type of player that could suddenly go nuts and be AA so really what do I know?

Determining worth of a trade is not easy.. probably a bit like FA comp .. it probably take wage and age into account. For example ..very difficult to say a player is worth only P20 if you are willing to pay him 1M a year. The age thing is a bit arbitrary I think... Age is important of course , historically players were tradde like you buying and selling a resource with a number of years of value in him.. and that probably not as true as it once was. FA has change that... its set a benchamrk..that most players are free at 8 years ..all at 10 years. Perhaps you probably have to think more about the length of contract offered than some fantastic future 10 years or more of service that you can either use or trade off. Take Cerra for example..any club trading for may hope they get a kid for a decade but really the way its going that is only an assumption. Some players are very settled and you do get that length of service .. others can be like Caddy ... Drafted by Gold Coast , traded to Geelong then trade to Rich ...and he may well end up somewhere else before he is finished..who knows. Type of player probably plays a part but really money cover all that.

Apparently WCoast McG wants 1.1M over several years... if he is not a FA it would indicate a player of considerable worth id have thought. Of course RFA payments to ensure a FA transfer can distort it a bit.

The hard part to determine is over payment.. because you are right ..if you want him you will have to pay a price.. a bit like Gold Coast had to. Any club would know ..or have a rough idea of what they think they will give away to get a deal done.... if they proceed then they are happy or willing to pay the price.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Not a chance Mitch Mcgov is worth pick 6.

 

[Kenny Dee]

Not a chance Mitch Mcgov is worth pick 6.

Then he stays a crow. Fwiw I don’t think the crows would accept just 6 for him either.

 

[Joao]

Determining worth of a trade is not easy.. probably a bit like FA comp .. it probably take wage and age into account. For example ..very difficult to say a player is worth only P20 if you are willing to pay him 1M a year. The age thing is a bit arbitrary I think... Age is important of course , historically players were tradde like you buying and selling a resource with a number of years of value in him.. and that probably not as true as it once was. FA has change that... its set a benchamrk..that most players are free at 8 years ..all at 10 years. Perhaps you probably have to think more about the length of contract offered than some fantastic future 10 years or more of service that you can either use or trade off. Take Cerra for example..any club trading for may hope they get a kid for a decade but really the way its going that is only an assumption. Some players are very settled and you do get that length of service .. others can be like Caddy ... Drafted by Gold Coast , traded to Geelong then trade to Rich ...and he may well end up somewhere else before he is finished..who knows. Type of player probably plays a part but really money cover all that.

Apparently WCoast McG wants 1.1M over several years... if he is not a FA it would indicate a player of considerable worth id have thought. Of course RFA payments to ensure a FA transfer can distort it a bit.

The hard part to determine is over payment.. because you are right ..if you want him you will have to pay a price.. a bit like Gold Coast had to. Any club would know ..or have a rough idea of what they think they will give away to get a deal done.... if they proceed then they are happy or willing to pay the price.

That's a lot of writing. You can spin whatever you like into it but MGov just doesn't have the output I expect for someone worth a top 10 pick. He is still relatively inexperienced but is 24 this year. He'd need to get on the park and pump out consistent footy pretty soon as he'll be peaking in the next 3-4 years.

Also who the **** is offering Mitch $1m a year? Hopefully nobody. Not even close to the league of player that should be getting paid that.

Worth noting of course that I don't work for FFC so they may see it completely differently of course. I'll be shattered if we cough up pick 6 for MGov.

 

[Punts]

Then he stays a crow. Fwiw I don’t think the crows would accept just 6 for him either.

Kidding surely

 

[Joao]

Then he stays a crow.

Sounds good.

 

[Mofra]

Maybe doggies second for their second (3-4 pick upgrade).

I'd do that in a heartbeat






(You already have our second rounder from last year's pick swap)

 

[Turbocat]

That's a lot of writing. You can spin whatever you like into it but MGov just doesn't have the output I expect for someone worth a top 10 pick. He is still relatively inexperienced but is 24 this year. He'd need to get on the park and pump out consistent footy pretty soon as he'll be peaking in the next 3-4 years.

Also who the **** is offering Mitch $1m a year? Hopefully nobody. Not even close to the league of player that should be getting paid that.

Worth noting of course that I don't work for FFC so they may see it completely differently of course. I'll be shattered if we cough up pick 6 for MGov.

OK I'll keep it thin... Want to dance , you pay the band .

 

[Joao]

OK I'll keep it thin... Want to dance , you pay the band .

Yeah that's the thing, I don't want to dance.