Mega Thread 2018 Trade Period Discussion part 2! (cont. in Part 3 - link in OP)

[pjcrows]

If Port end up with 5, 10 and 15 that's a great haul.

 

[ad victoriam]

Polec, Pittard, Wingard, Hombsch, Amon, 23, 30, and 49 to get Ryan Burton, a future 3rd, and pick 5

And that will be the start of a period that will match the Primus years.

 

[Strahany]

I can’t see a trade being done for pick 4. If you look at St Kilda’s list, there’s only one young player that can be highlighted as a future star, which is Gresham. The rest of the young players are either unproven or already stagnated as a GOP. Because of that, there’s a huge need to get elite talent through the door, which pick 4 guarantees in this draft.

Unfortunately, for Adelaide, pick 8 is just outside the pack of 6 elite players (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, M.King, Smith, Blakey) with one of them being a Sydney academy player, in Blakey, so really only 5 available elite players. Rozee, B.King, Hately etc are nothing to sneeze at by any means, but are a clear step down from the rest (with arguments to be made each way).

There would have to be quite the lopsided trade to get it over the line. Port’s trade with Fremantle sets the market, with them trading two second round picks to go from 11 > 6. The closer to the pointy end, the more expensive each singular slot up the draft order. This cost is exacerbated by the fact that Port paid so much for pick 6 which is no guarantee to net one of the “SA three”, whereas pick 4 does guarantee one, and it could well be Rankine if GC opt to keep the friends together.

I just can’t see St Kilda asking for a trade that would be deemed an acceptable cost by Adelaide. I imagine they’d be pressing Port for 6 + 10, so would likely be asking for 8 + 13 + 16 in exchange for 4 + 28. That’s a huge price to pay, and Adelaide will quite rightly laugh it off, much like St Kilda would laugh off alternative offers on the other end of the spectrum.

Surely Hately + 2 others is a sufficient haul, with work being put into the three SA guns, ready to pounce in 2020.

 

[Thetrader15]

Here we go.

So we weren't invited hey.

Well how about we sort out a deal for 2 and 3 to go with 8 then GTFO by lunch time and settle in to watch the Batchelorette while the kids play with their toys in the sandpit

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

If Port end up with 5, 10 and 15 that's a great haul.

For Wingard, Polec etc. that’s their wing and half forward line sacrificed.

 

[Mego Red]

Your problem today is that you are treating all first round picks equally, when it's quite clear that is not and never has been the case.

Has it?

Has a top five pick been proven to be double as successful as a 10-15 pick?

Because that's what the cost of trading looks like.

 

[Thetrader15]

If Port end up with 5, 10 and 15 that's a great haul.

So 5 and 15 for polec, wingard, hombsch a 2nd, 3rd and 4th rd picks

Hope they don't get any injuries

 

[Crowman32]

Has it?

Has a top five pick been proven to be double as successful as a 10-15 pick?

Because that's what the cost of trading looks like.

What pick was dangerfield again ? If my memories correct pick 10. Not bad for a Brownlow medalist.

 

[ad victoriam]

We don't need to trade up yet, Wait until GC picks at 2 and 3 if they the Kings then we talk to the Saints, if they go with the SA talent then we sit back and pick 4 kids.
there no rush just make Port believe we are interested, let them sell the farm

 

[pjcrows]

So 5 and 15 for polec, wingard, hombsch a 2nd, 3rd and 4th rd picks

Hope they don't get any injuries

+ Ryan Burton

 

[Hodgy]

If Port end up with 5, 10 and 15 that's a great haul.

Yes but it took giving up 2 best 6 players and a further 2 best 22 players. If we threw M Crouch and R Laird into the mix I'm sure we would end up with 3 top 5 picks. But what a cost.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

If Port end up with 5, 10 and 15 that's a great haul.

+ Burton

 

[CrowMan90]

Yes but it took giving up 2 best 6 players and a further 2 best 22 players. If we threw M Crouch and R Laird into the mix I'm sure we would end up with 3 top 5 picks. But what a cost.

Exactly. Port have done well with the picks they could potentially have in this draft. But they have absolutely paid a high price and their depth, which was already not great, is looking a lot worse.

 

[bird_man]

Who's to say this top 6 will be elite?

No draftee is a guaranteed to be elite in 5 or 6 years time, but as far as draftees go the top 6 is elite. Most are saying one of strongest we've seen.

 

[Bicks]

I can’t see a trade being done for pick 4. If you look at St Kilda’s list, there’s only one young player that can be highlighted as a future star, which is Gresham. The rest of the young players are either unproven or already stagnated as a GOP. Because of that, there’s a huge need to get elite talent through the door, which pick 4 guarantees in this draft.

Unfortunately, for Adelaide, pick 8 is just outside the pack of 6 elite players (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, M.King, Smith, Blakey) with one of them being a Sydney academy player, in Blakey, so really only 5 available elite players. Rozee, B.King, Hately etc are nothing to sneeze at by any means, but are a clear step down from the rest (with arguments to be made each way).

There would have to be quite the lopsided trade to get it over the line. Port’s trade with Fremantle sets the market, with them trading two second round picks to go from 11 > 6. The closer to the pointy end, the more expensive each singular slot up the draft order. This cost is exacerbated by the fact that Port paid so much for pick 6 which is no guarantee to net one of the “SA three”, whereas pick 4 does guarantee one, and it could well be Rankine if GC opt to keep the friends together.

I just can’t see St Kilda asking for a trade that would be deemed an acceptable cost by Adelaide. I imagine they’d be pressing Port for 6 + 10, so would likely be asking for 8 + 13 + 16 in exchange for 4 + 28. That’s a huge price to pay, and Adelaide will quite rightly laugh it off, much like St Kilda would laugh off alternative offers on the other end of the spectrum.

Surely Hately + 2 others is a sufficient haul, with work being put into the three SA guns, ready to pounce in 2020.

We'll take Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield off your hands right now, if they're not 200 game players I'll give up.

 

[Morning_Fog]

Price goes down on draft night. There are always more players available than you expect at your pick, and if your player isn't there the demand drops

Not at pick 4.

 

[simmo97]

I hope your wrong. People have got carried away with the quality of this draft because of the quality at the pointy end. The top 7 are miles better than the rest, and for us it's top 5 because we don't want the King brothers.

their will still be high quality players available after pick 7.

 

[Scorpus]

There has never, ever been the case where the top 5 picks in a draft all become star players. It just does not happen

 

[Strahany]

We'll take Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield off your hands right now, if they're not 200 game I'll give up.

You underestimate how bad this club is at developing players

 

[Jack McKraken]

i am putting my money on that we end up using picks 8,13,16,21 to draft young talent.

Can’t help but get excited at the thought of unleashing the Ham with those picks.

Could it be our turn to sweep the talent like Cats in 99/2001 or Hawks in 2004?

 

[matty p]

We'll take Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield off your hands right now, if they're not 200 game players I'll give up.

Clark was surprisingly poor this season compared to how I thought he’d go, but Coffield looks like a gun.

 

[Jibroni]

No draftee is a guaranteed to be elite in 5 or 6 years time, but as far as draftees go the top 6 is elite. Most are saying one of strongest we've seen.

Strongest since the Hodge, Judd and Ball draft 2001 IMO.

 

[matty p]

You underestimate how bad this club is at developing players

Then wouldn’t it be wiser to take two players and hope one of them works out rather than risk everything on King?

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

I can’t see a trade being done for pick 4. If you look at St Kilda’s list, there’s only one young player that can be highlighted as a future star, which is Gresham. The rest of the young players are either unproven or already stagnated as a GOP. Because of that, there’s a huge need to get elite talent through the door, which pick 4 guarantees in this draft.

Unfortunately, for Adelaide, pick 8 is just outside the pack of 6 elite players (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, M.King, Smith, Blakey) with one of them being a Sydney academy player, in Blakey, so really only 5 available elite players. Rozee, B.King, Hately etc are nothing to sneeze at by any means, but are a clear step down from the rest (with arguments to be made each way).

There would have to be quite the lopsided trade to get it over the line. Port’s trade with Fremantle sets the market, with them trading two second round picks to go from 11 > 6. The closer to the pointy end, the more expensive each singular slot up the draft order. This cost is exacerbated by the fact that Port paid so much for pick 6 which is no guarantee to net one of the “SA three”, whereas pick 4 does guarantee one, and it could well be Rankine if GC opt to keep the friends together.

I just can’t see St Kilda asking for a trade that would be deemed an acceptable cost by Adelaide. I imagine they’d be pressing Port for 6 + 10, so would likely be asking for 8 + 13 + 16 in exchange for 4 + 28. That’s a huge price to pay, and Adelaide will quite rightly laugh it off, much like St Kilda would laugh off alternative offers on the other end of the spectrum.

Surely Hately + 2 others is a sufficient haul, with work being put into the three SA guns, ready to pounce in 2020.

Yes but history compelling, today's talent order will not necessarily translate to success

You could reassess.every draft between 2005 and 2015 and the draft order based on actually careers would.look different in each of the drafts

I'm one that truly beloved that with every pick their are unknowns and it's not until you get players into professional programs and playing AFL you truly never know what a player is capable

Footy history is littered with top.10 flops and drafting gold outside the 1st round

I'll back our recruiters in with pick 8

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[Archie87]

Port pre-trade week: "We won't sell the farm for this draft"

Now, the Teal Bathwater Drinkers are about to trade out a gun like Wingard and a solid depth defender in Hombsch for a minor pick upgrade and some change late in the first round all in an effort to make sure big brother doesn't come in over the top and usurp them.