List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread

[The King!]

Agree, much rather get Serong, Papely and Daniher, than just Daniher.

I ask people disagreeing with us is which deal is better in three years time? Having Serong, Papely and Daniher in our club or just Daniher?

whats if serong is a flop or goes at 4, papley becomes disgruntled and daniher doesn't go

we dont know it is choice a or choice b

 

[The King!]

How dare us.

how bad are essendon fans in melbourne

daniher wants to escape the city, must pester him all the time

 

[mtooler]

whats if serong is a flop or goes at 4, papley becomes disgruntled and daniher doesn't go

we dont know it is choice a or choice b

Serong won't flop, if gone, we take Ash. Papely isn't disgruntled and if Daniher doesn't go its a very liveable outcome. The odds are way more in our favour with Serong/Ash Papely/Kemp and Daniher or no Daniher in 2021.

 

[The King!]

Serong won't flop, if gone, we take Ash. Papely isn't disgruntled and if Daniher doesn't go its a very liveable outcome. The odds are way more in our favour with Serong/Ash Papely/Kemp and Daniher or no Daniher in 2021.

whichever kid we get might just rot in the neafl then play off half back

we dont know, its all guess work

the right option might be to ignore daniher

but i suspect its happening so may as well get used to it

 

[The King!]

dont forget daniher didnt have the surgery the first year

essendon made this a two year thing being incompetent

 

[Mick Oxlong]

We need to call Essendon's bluff and white noise.

They have tried to anchor the price at 5 and 9 so if wee pay up 5 and 25 we feels like it is a 'bargain'.

Daniher is 25 and hasnt play in two seasons. He could be cooked. He is worth pick 9 but not more. I'd probably even do 9 and 25.

Essendon: he is worth 2 x 1st rd picks
Also Essendon: he is a required player...we have not even thought of extending his contract beyond 2020.

 

[robbieando]

I'd argue against that across the last few years, I'd back my draft picking over them every day of the week. I'd have taken Constable and Worpel for example and based off my record I'd be doing better than them.

I still trust the club's list managers. Neither player was in the discussion as a first round pick as was proven by where they were selected in the draft. Then we got Tom McCartin with our second round pick. Its easy to throw stones with hindsight

 

[Tedeski]

If we give up 5 and 9 for a bloke who’s played 11 games that’s a disgrace. We’ve been bent over the trade table since Harley has been at the club. What has he done to improve the clubs list and performance?

We won't be giving up as much as people think. The club will play hard ball but he won't play for them again as the relationship is very sour & it's all to do with the medical stuff. They hold no cards & will take something better than what the AFL would deliver them with him as a FA.

There were rumours last year that Scully threatened GWS with a damages claim with medical issues again, not unlike Daniher & it's why he may have got to the Hawks, his club of choice, with no one other club surprisingly even allowed to offer something better than what the Hawks eventually gave GWS, a third round pick 53! Have a read of this.

Inside story: Why Scully became a Hawk steal

Marc McGowan looks at the former Giant's stunning move

www.afl.com.au

"But the problem lingered and Scully had a "setback" that saw him reduce his training loads, before the Giants officially put an end to his 2018 season in early August. In between then and the injury first occurring, the jungle drums were beating about Scully departing Greater Western Sydney, with the Hawks and Essendon linked to him as far back as July."


It is eerily similar to the Daniher situation where he was brought back way too early.

AFL 2019: Essendon’s worst fears confirmed, Joe Daniher to miss rest of season

Dons Disaster: Daniher’s season over in major Bombers blow

www.foxsports.com.au

"After missing the first four games of the year with a calf issue, Daniher was a bizarre last-minute inclusion for Essendon’s Good Friday clash against North Melbourne. He then backed up six days later against Collingwood in the Anzac Day game and impressed with four goals.
The Bomber kicked 0.4 against Fremantle last weekend before, on Thursday, being ruled out until season’s end."

Dual premiership Kangaroo David King said the Bombers’ handling of Daniher had been confusing.
“This is a guy that was rushed back for the JLT (pre-season series) and we didn’t see him again until Round 5, (he) played three weeks, (then) out Round 8, back Round 9,”
“If that’s the case, at some point do you have to say ‘have we got the program right here?’
“This is their best player, their highest paid player you would assume, it has been a head scratcher at best.”

Make no mistake fellow Swans supporters, the Daniher & Essendon relationship soured after this mismanagement of "their asset" & they don't hold any cards what so ever in this trade & if we are as ruthless as the Haws were with the Scully deal, we'll give them a third round pick for him.
If we are the good will traders that everyone says we are, then we'll give them a second rounder.
If we are soft, we'll trade Paps & give them pick 9.

IMO, the Daniher deal is the cheap sideshow & we are into someone else with the proposed pick 9 we would get for Paps.

HOW'S THAT FOR CENTRE UMP?

 

[mtooler]

I still trust the club's list managers. Neither player was in the discussion as a first round pick as was proven by where they were selected in the draft. Then we got Tom McCartin with our second round pick. Its easy to throw stones with hindsight

They were discussed by plenty, just not taken earlier. Have a read of historic threads on here, wider draft forums etc. Both would be outstanding for us, Worpel particularly.

 

[WillHayward]

If we say pick 9.

And they say eff off.

They get stuck with a half-hearted player who walks and they might end up with an end of first round compo if he walks as a FA.

So really the question for Essendon is pick 9 now or pick 19 next year?

 

[mtooler]

We won't be giving up as much as people think. The club will play hard ball but he won't play for them again as the relationship is very sour & it's all to do with the medical stuff. They hold no cards & will take something better than what the AFL would deliver them with him as a FA.

There were rumours last year that Scully threatened GWS with a damages claim with medical issues again, not unlike Daniher & it's why he may have got to the Hawks, his club of choice, with no one other club surprisingly even allowed to offer something better than what the Hawks eventually gave GWS, a third round pick 53! Have a read of this.

Inside story: Why Scully became a Hawk steal

Marc McGowan looks at the former Giant's stunning move

www.afl.com.au

"But the problem lingered and Scully had a "setback" that saw him reduce his training loads, before the Giants officially put an end to his 2018 season in early August. In between then and the injury first occurring, the jungle drums were beating about Scully departing Greater Western Sydney, with the Hawks and Essendon linked to him as far back as July."


It is eerily similar to the Daniher situation where he was brought back way too early.

AFL 2019: Essendon’s worst fears confirmed, Joe Daniher to miss rest of season

Dons Disaster: Daniher’s season over in major Bombers blow

www.foxsports.com.au

"After missing the first four games of the year with a calf issue, Daniher was a bizarre last-minute inclusion for Essendon’s Good Friday clash against North Melbourne. He then backed up six days later against Collingwood in the Anzac Day game and impressed with four goals.
The Bomber kicked 0.4 against Fremantle last weekend before, on Thursday, being ruled out until season’s end."

Dual premiership Kangaroo David King said the Bombers’ handling of Daniher had been confusing.
“This is a guy that was rushed back for the JLT (pre-season series) and we didn’t see him again until Round 5, (he) played three weeks, (then) out Round 8, back Round 9,”
“If that’s the case, at some point do you have to say ‘have we got the program right here?’
“This is their best player, their highest paid player you would assume, it has been a head scratcher at best.”

Make no mistake fellow Swans supporters, the Daniher & Essendon relationship soured after this mismanagement of "their asset" & they don't hold any cards what so ever in this trade & if we are as ruthless as the Haws were with the Scully deal, we'll give them a third round pick for him.
If we are the good will traders that everyone says we are, then we'll give them a second rounder.
If we are soft, we'll trade Paps & give them pick 9.

IMO, the Daniher deal is the cheap sideshow & we are into someone else with the proposed pick 9 we would get for Paps.

HOW'S THAT FOR CENTRE UMP?

I like the logic there, not overly confident, but a red hot post all the same mate!

 

[RobbieK]

If we give up 5 and 9 for a bloke who’s played 11 games that’s a disgrace. We’ve been bent over the trade table since Harley has been at the club. What has he done to improve the clubs list and performance?

Was this supposed to be a post challenging my assertion that the dislike of Harley is pure ignorance?

I think it just proves the point. What drivel.

 

[Tedeski]

So really the question for Essendon is pick 9 now or pick 19 next year?

Spot on.
This!

 

[mtooler]

whichever kid we get might just rot in the neafl then play off half back

we dont know, its all guess work

the right option might be to ignore daniher

but i suspect its happening so may as well get used to it

I know, I'm a Clifton Strengths Finder facilitator and coach though, strategic thinking is in my top 2 for my personality profile, so I carry on a bit when I see something illogical with gigantic risk. Hypotheticals like 5 + 9 for Daniher when he has barely played with OP in 2 years and his brother retired early due to injury has all the sirens going off in my head of waiting one more year to see if he can get fit, and pick up a high end kid who will be useful in our next tilt at the title which is definitely not going to be in 2020. Which means if Joe comes it doesn't matter really if he's with us in 2020 or 2021.

 

[Tedeski]

Here's what we are dealing with. SOS the next in line to Dodoro's throne.

Carlton 'frustrated' a player manager - and it could come back to bite them

A behind-the-scenes look into year-long talks has offered an intriguing insight into the unknown of the AFL trade period.

7news.com.au

"Player manager Marty Pask says he will be cautious in future dealings with Carlton after he felt the Blues left his client Brandon Ellis in the lurch.
The two-time premiership player is certain to head up to the Suns after a potential opportunity to stay home was seemingly pulled out from under him by Carlton."

One gets the feeling that Paps came to their attention.

 

[robbieando]

They were discussed by plenty, just not taken earlier. Have a read of historic threads on here, wider draft forums etc. Both would be outstanding for us, Worpel particularly.

I did go back, you certainly didn't raise those two players on the night, you raised picking Higgins over Ling. The only two people who were strong on us not picking up either were Ceasar88 (who thought that letting Worpel pass would be a mistake that every club would rue) and Mick Oxlong (who before the draft thought whoever picked up Worpel would be the winners of the draft) but no one thought that they should've been picked with our first pick of the night (the three names brought up on the night were Richards, Higgins and Allen). Your using hindsight and what was actually said.

Its one thing to say they would've been outstanding for us because yes both fit the profile of the type of player we need now, but its another to say that we should've picked up two players with our picks that were overlooked by nearly every single club twice (include one that was twice overlooked by the very club that actually picked him in the end) and as such you could do a better job as a list manager. Clearly your basing that off false pretences

 

[Kummerspeck]

Yes he has influence, you don’t agree?

Read the question again. What should he have done?

 

[bungee]

I’m with you re Kaffir fruit zest...the difference is Daniher v Lou Richards. It’s a tree, not a bush...not the 80’s anymore!

Tree/bush. If my other half shaved her tree it'd be all the same to me

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Tree/bush. If my other half shaved her tree it'd be all the same to me

If? Ok then.

 

[bungee]

I'm in the n Daniher camp and let it wait for next year. If he's still keen we can pick him up as a FA. TBH I think Sam Reid is less of an injury risk. Then we've got McCartin coming through too. Our premiership window is open from 2021. That's when we need to have our best on board and I don't see Daniher in the mix. I'd be fine to get him cheap but that's all. I hope Tom Harley can keep his personal views out of it. We aren't short of tall forwards.

Papley needs to stay. The guy is contracted and I haven't heard anything to suggest he's unhappy. We need his pressure inside 50.

 

[Mick Oxlong]

I did go back, you certainly didn't raise those two players on the night, you raised picking Higgins over Ling. The only person who was strong on us not picking up either was Ceasar88 (who thought that letting Worpel pass would be a mistake that every club would rue) but no one thought that they should've been picked with our first pick of the night (the three names brought up on the night were Richards, Higgins and Allen). Your using hindsight and what was actually said.

Its one thing to say they would've been outstanding for us because yes both fit the profile of the type of player we need now, but its another to say that we should've picked up two players with our picks that were overlooked by nearly every single club twice (include one that was twice overlooked by the very club that actually picked him in the end) and as such you could do a better job as a list manager. Clearly your basing that off false pretences

I beg to differ but I’ll forgive you for that oversight for all the stuff you do. The boy from Winch goes alright and if I recall, there was a question mark over his kicking?

 

[robbieando]

I beg to differ but I’ll forgive you for that oversight for all the stuff you do. The boy from Winch goes alright and if I recall, there was a question mark over his kicking?

View attachment 759822

Well I was talking in regards to after the draft was finished, but happy to give you fair credit for the call, so will update.

As for question mark, yes it was his kicking that was an issue which clearly was and is stupid. Could get the ball as a kid and now as a senior.

 

[elastic]

She's a nurse and flat out refuses to move to Sydney

Well clearly she doesn't love him and he is making a

Yeah, but then we also run the risk of Joe changing his mind. We'll do everything to get it done this year, and rightfully so IMO.

What about if he changes his mind after one season in Sydney? That's when the club does whatever they can to get him back to Melbourne for a future 3rd rounder.

Anyway, my prediction is a deal is done and fans of both teams feel they got ripped off.

Truth is we more than likely won't really know for another 2-3 years.

I reckon we will know sooner than that particularly if we trade 2 first rounders. I think Joe should look through the Sam Reid thread before coming here because if he doesn't get on the park regularly he is going to be a whipping boy. There is way too much exuberance about this trade for a broken down player. If he has a similar output over the next 2 years that he has over the last 2 then it will be very damaging for our club particularly as Buddy's final contract years play out. Not a fan of this deal. Way too much risk.

 

[RobbieK]

I still trust the club's list managers. Neither player was in the discussion as a first round pick as was proven by where they were selected in the draft. Then we got Tom McCartin with our second round pick. Its easy to throw stones with hindsight

We also don't know what these guys interviewed like. Maybe there were indications they wouldn't be happy to come to Sydney? While of course you want the club to back itself to bring in the best players and retain them, it is surely a consideration these days considering the increased power of players to demand trades to specific destinations.

I find it strange that people would criticise our drafting over the last four or five seasons - many more hits than misses, our first round drafting is way better than it used to be.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I find it strange that people would criticise our drafting over the last four or five seasons - many more hits than misses, our first round drafting is way better than it used to be.

Is it? Take out the academy picks which anyone could have picked these are the ones we've drafted in the last say 8 years

2011- Tom Mitchell (academy)
2012- Dean Towers (fail)
2013- Zac Jones (pass- likely to be traded for lower than selection though)
2014- Isaac Heeney (academy)
2015- Callum Mills (academy)
2016- Oliver Florent (tick)
2017- Matthew Ling (questionable reach- might work, but at this stage it's not looking great)
2018- Blakely (academy)

With the exception of Florent, which ones have been hits aside from academy selections? That is hardly a glowing strike rate on top end talents. That said Darymple is in now which is a good thing and he can only improve this.