Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

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The crows have been absolutely burnt in the past by the go home factor. If you don't think that has had an effect throughout the club let me give you a hint from contacts of mine close to the club.

It does.

If that's true then it should be a lock they'll take Thilthorpe, be interesting to see how it pans out.
 

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Could never have drafted him off that vision.

Contrary to this bloke - looked an absolute pearler from day 1. Amazing thing was Vic Country had both him and Cunnington in the centre this year, surprised WA managed a clearance.

 
So Hawthorn have pick 4 and 24

We know Hawthorn are going to get a really good player with 4. I feel that the 3 gun talls will be gone in Tillthorpe, McDonald & DGB and it’s looking likely Hawthorn would take Hollands with pick 4. Wow watching his highlights he looks to be a player and could be number 1 if he didn’t do his knee. Id be lying if I said I’m not worried about his knee as I’ve heard he did it reasonably innocuously. Yes most players recover well under a professional medical system yet some don’t and I’ve seen many careers ruined from knee injuries.

I also feel that while Hawthorn would like to take multiple top 10 selections to fast track their rebuild. They could do this two ways by packaging up picks or splitting pick 4. Yes they would most likely miss out on Hollands but let’s say they get 7 & 8 from the bombers they would most likely grab 2 of


Phillips (most likely gone)
Bruhn
Perkins
Henry
Cox
Reid

I think this may be better for the rebuild Hawthorn needs to undertake.

Interested to hear your thoughts?
 
So Hawthorn have pick 4 and 24

We know Hawthorn are going to get a really good player with 4. I feel that the 3 gun talls will be gone in Tillthorpe, McDonald & DGB and it’s looking likely Hawthorn would take Hollands with pick 4. Wow watching his highlights he looks to be a player and could be number 1 if he didn’t do his knee. Id be lying if I said I’m not worried about his knee as I’ve heard he did it reasonably innocuously. Yes most players recover well under a professional medical system yet some don’t and I’ve seen many careers ruined from knee injuries.

I also feel that while Hawthorn would like to take multiple top 10 selections to fast track their rebuild. They could do this two ways by packaging up picks or splitting pick 4. Yes they would most likely miss out on Hollands but let’s say they get 7 & 8 from the bombers they would most likely grab 2 of


Phillips (most likely gone)
Bruhn
Perkins
Henry
Cox
Reid

I think this may be better for the rebuild Hawthorn needs to undertake.

Interested to hear your thoughts?
It is a reasonable option to consider but I’m not sure * will do that trade.
 
So Hawthorn have pick 4 and 24

We know Hawthorn are going to get a really good player with 4. I feel that the 3 gun talls will be gone in Tillthorpe, McDonald & DGB and it’s looking likely Hawthorn would take Hollands with pick 4. Wow watching his highlights he looks to be a player and could be number 1 if he didn’t do his knee. Id be lying if I said I’m not worried about his knee as I’ve heard he did it reasonably innocuously. Yes most players recover well under a professional medical system yet some don’t and I’ve seen many careers ruined from knee injuries.

I also feel that while Hawthorn would like to take multiple top 10 selections to fast track their rebuild. They could do this two ways by packaging up picks or splitting pick 4. Yes they would most likely miss out on Hollands but let’s say they get 7 & 8 from the bombers they would most likely grab 2 of


Phillips (most likely gone)
Bruhn
Perkins
Henry
Cox
Reid

I think this may be better for the rebuild Hawthorn needs to undertake.

Interested to hear your thoughts?
Depends on how we rate the top end of the draft. If we believe their is a strong evenly talented top 8 or so (as opposed to the consensus of a fab 5) outside the academy kids we should try and pull the trigger with the Bombers with a 4 & 24 for 6 & 8 pick trade. If we are as keen as mustard on one of those top 5 we keep 4 obviously.
 
The top 5 players are pretty consistent in most mock drafts. There is solid evidence to suggest Hollands is the best mid/forward in the draft. The question is do we take a player who has an injury cloud against them at a pick as high as 4. If we were a finals team then yes we probably take him. If we had multiple first round selections we probably take him. But we have 1 selection and we are going into a rebuild. if his knee isn’t right then that’s a draft we’ve missed out and a step back in our rebuild.

This is the reason I’d contemplate taking 7 & 8 from the bombers.

I’m hearing the upside of Perkins is huge and Bruhn also is class maybe 2 would be better than 1 even if Hollands goes onto be a star.
 
Yet Scully and Trengove went before him.

Because there was no Dusty to compare him to. That's the problem with being the player that draws comparison, there's no one from before you could say "well he's the next X" to get him over the top as Pick 1.

The issue with Dusty was that he was the best player in the draft but you'd never see him as the mature, well studied kid who'd lead the club and front the media.
 
Because there was no Dusty to compare him to. That's the problem with being the player that draws comparison, there's no one from before you could say "well he's the next X" to get him over the top as Pick 1.

The issue with Dusty was that he was the best player in the draft but you'd never see him as the mature, well studied kid who'd lead the club and front the media.
He was a hard running mid as a junior, but he is most devastating forward of centre.
If he just played in the midfield he'd be one of the best mids, but combined with his forward craft he is the best player in the league.
 

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How many times did we interview Will Day last year?
I recall Will saying ‘a few times’ in an interview. I spose it could go both ways, if we are sure you might not even interview a player or maybe once, if you are unsure and concerns keep coming up you might interview multiple times. So I don’t think it’s a great metric unless you know the content of the interview
 
The top 5 players are pretty consistent in most mock drafts. There is solid evidence to suggest Hollands is the best mid/forward in the draft. The question is do we take a player who has an injury cloud against them at a pick as high as 4. If we were a finals team then yes we probably take him. If we had multiple first round selections we probably take him. But we have 1 selection and we are going into a rebuild. if his knee isn’t right then that’s a draft we’ve missed out and a step back in our rebuild.

This is the reason I’d contemplate taking 7 & 8 from the bombers.

I’m hearing the upside of Perkins is huge and Bruhn also is class maybe 2 would be better than 1 even if Hollands goes onto be a star.

For interest, this is what Chris Doere said when asked about Perkins at #4:

"Big reach for me. He's not that certain star midfielder. He's someone you just want to be a good midfielder. I view Perkins as appropriate on quality based on my evaluation for selection in the 10-20 range.

He's someone people will talk up like he's Christian Petracca, but for mine he's closer to Dan Houston
"

One person's opinion but I think it is widely accepted Perkins is more speculative than the "big 5" but that he has that high perceived upside. He seems to be someone who was disadvantaged (or possibly advantaged) by the lack of footy for Victorians this year as clubs could not see his progression. Strikes me as a guy with a super high ceiling, but just hasn't proven himself like the others. If he's our preference, I reckon we could get him at 6, so would be worth considering a trade.

He's definitely a 'type' of player we need - like Hollands. Damaging forward, you could possible transition to midfield. Question is how confident we are that he lives up to that upside, based on less proven performance than the "big 5."
 
For interest, this is what Chris Doere said when asked about Perkins at #4:

"Big reach for me. He's not that certain star midfielder. He's someone you just want to be a good midfielder. I view Perkins as appropriate on quality based on my evaluation for selection in the 10-20 range.

He's someone people will talk up like he's Christian Petracca, but for mine he's closer to Dan Houston
"

One person's opinion but I think it is widely accepted Perkins is more speculative than the "big 5" but that he has that high perceived upside. He seems to be someone who was disadvantaged (or possibly advantaged) by the lack of footy for Victorians this year as clubs could not see his progression. Strikes me as a guy with a super high ceiling, but just hasn't proven himself like the others. If he's our preference, I reckon we could get him at 6, so would be worth considering a trade.

He's definitely a 'type' of player we need - like Hollands. Damaging forward, you could possible transition to midfield. Question is how confident we are that he lives up to that upside, based on less proven performance than the "big 5."

He also said Will Day was the 40th best kid in the draft in 2019. To be fair to Knightmare, draft watchers consistently fail to pick kids who are more potential than known quantity.
 
He also said Will Day was the 40th best kid in the draft in 2019. To be fair to Knightmare, draft watchers consistently fail to pick kids who are more potential than known quantity.
yea he didnt like Day last year and even this year didnt think Day was that good until he got a Rising Star Nom, not everyone gets everything right.

from knightmare on july 10th 2020, "It was a typical Day game. Don't notice him without doing anything wrong. I was surprised in checking the stats to see he had 10d+. It seemed like Day had Atu most of the game? One Day starts influencing games against recognised established players I'll be singing his praises."

i was surprised because i thought Day and Atu had good debut games.

also most other Draft Watches had Day late first to early 2nd round, just to make sure you get your facts straight
 
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He also said Will Day was the 40th best kid in the draft in 2019. To be fair to Knightmare, draft watchers consistently fail to pick kids who are more potential than known quantity.
Yep, one person's opinion as I said, and opinions will vary. Knightmare seems to focus a lot on proven performance, not upside (for example he loves McDonald and Phillips based on proven output). That's where he differs from recruiters, rightly or wrongly. Recruiting involves risk - some pay off; some don't. It seems to be accepted that Perkins is rated more on upside/potential than performance, so he is a more speculative pick. But he seems to have those high upside traits. I like him as a prospect for that reason and I am not averse to a high risk / high reward (Hollands fits that bill too due to his body) - but is Perkins too risky at 4? There is arguably more merit in taking the "upside" punt in 2020 given players missed out on the year of development so other than the interstate guys, every player is more speculative than usual.
 
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Yep, one person's opinion as I said, and opinions will vary. Knightmare seems to focus a lot on proven performance, not upside. That's where he differs from recruiters, rightly or wrongly. It seems to be accepted that Perkins is rated more on upside/potential than performance, so he is a more speculative pick. But he seems to have those high upside traits. I like him as a prospect for that reason - but is he too risky at 4?

his performances in 2019 were amazing for Sandringham in the few games i saw him play, very skillful player, i would expect top 10 somewhere, he could potentially play midfield which is his upside, whereas ive only seen him play really well as a half forw as a 16/17 yr old.
 
Yeah my view Hawthorn should keep pick 4 in chance that one of Tillthorpe, McDonald or DGB are still there. I’ve heard next years draft is light on with talls so maybe this year we should pick a tall if we have the chance.



If the 3 talls aren’t available I think Hawthorn will have a tough decision to make

  • Take Hollands who is a speculative pick (because of his body)
  • Or split 4 with the Bombers and get 2 inside the top 8. They then can get Perkins who is also speculative plus a more proven performer.
Im also hoping Hawthorn can pick another player like an Eddie Ford or Bailey Laurie with pick 24 and use their other picks 45, 46 and 49 to get Conor Downie through the door. I believe that could be a possibility if a bid doesn’t come for Downie in the top 20

If we were to land 4 kids projected to be inside the top 30 that would be huge for our rebuild
 
Yet Scully and Trengove went before him.
If I recall there was nothing controversial in Scully at 1. He was pretty well accepted as that safe professional, very similar to Walsh a couple years ago. He was seen as the Shane Crawford, Robert Harvey, Ben Cousins type, not the outside winger he became.

Like Buddy, the knock on Martin was never his footy. What is more extraordinary - and infuriating - is that Richmond couldn’t give him away that year he was out of contract. 17 clubs should be very dirty on themselves for not biting the bullet when one of the game’s greatest ever talents was free to a good home. Richmond would still have a premiership drought rather than 3 flags if they did
 
If I recall there was nothing controversial in Scully at 1. He was pretty well accepted as that safe professional, very similar to Walsh a couple years ago. He was seen as the Shane Crawford, Robert Harvey, Ben Cousins type, not the outside winger he became.

Like Buddy, the knock on Martin was never his footy. What is more extraordinary - and infuriating - is that Richmond couldn’t give him away that year he was out of contract. 17 clubs should be very dirty on themselves for not biting the bullet when one of the game’s greatest ever talents was free to a good home. Richmond would still have a premiership drought rather than 3 flags if they did
Scully was one of the best kids I've seen. Still remember him racking up 40 touches in a game at the Dees in his first year. Back then, I thought he'd end up a multiple Brownlow winner.
Clearly the injuries have eroded his confidence in his footy. A real shame.
 
When have this years Vic under 17’s played?
They played last year. But what we have seen from the non vic u17s it looks a strong year especially when considering how good the vic kids are in comparison to the non vic kids.

Now COVID might completely change everything for the vic kids. In which case having picks in 2021 when we get to see the kids play top age is still better because the same effect it will have on next years kids it will have on this years.
 
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