Resource 2020 Draft Watch (picks 1, 9, 20, 30, 45, 50, 60, 74) - updated R17 15/9/20

[Deaneus!]

​

 

[Tex200]

Lever averaged 1.70 score launches across 2016-2017 compared to Lukosius just 1.00 average this season

Also averaged more score involvements (3.32 versus 2.75) and far more intercept marks (3.00 versus 1.17) and intercept possessions (8.31 vs 4.75) with a better contested win rate (~70% versus ~50%). Luko does average more meters gained.

Don't get me wrong, Lukosius is a great player. But Jake Lever's first three seasons with us were absolutely elite

If you’re including his 3rd seasons it’s apples and oranges.

 

[Mutineer]

If you’re including his 3rd seasons it’s apples and oranges.

When it comes to impact per disposal Lever's not even in the same country let alone post code.

There's hardly a better distributor in the AFL, let alone one in only their second season.

 

[SaltPeter]

Lever averaged 1.70 score launches across 2016-2017 compared to Lukosius just 1.00 average this season

Also averaged more score involvements (3.32 versus 2.75) and far more intercept marks (3.00 versus 1.17) and intercept possessions (8.31 vs 4.75) with a better contested win rate (~70% versus ~50%). Luko does average more meters gained.

Don't get me wrong, Lukosius is a great player. But Jake Lever's first three seasons with us were absolutely elite

Lever was playing in a defensive group in 2016 in which Talia, Brown and possibly Laird had statistically career best years. 2017 was a pretty good for the group as well.

Agree Lever was great in those years. Lever was also drafted as a defender, whereas Lukosius played predominantly as forward pre draft.

Lukosius is now 3rd in total metres gained, and 5th in average meters per game. 8th in total rebound 50's. 12th in average kicks per game. I don't think Lever ranks close to top in anything this year.

The question really is was Levers form a reflection of the sum of the group around him.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

When it comes to impact per disposal Lever's not even in the same country let alone post code.

There's hardly a better distributor in the AFL, let alone one in only their second season.

I only saw snippets last night, but in the 10 total minutes I got to see, Lukosius had three or four kicks - a few of them under pressure but all of them 40+ meters out in front of a team mates advantage.

Adelaide would be lucky for our entire team to have that many kicks to team mates advantage in a game.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Comment Mutineer .....who's the best ruckman for us to take, that has a leap of more than 10 cm and isn't a puffcake like English

Clubs see Zach Reid as one of the country's best young prospects, given his kicking ability and versatility to play anywhere on the field at 202cm.

 

[Scorpus]

If you’re including his 3rd seasons it’s apples and oranges.

Jake Lever 2nd season (2016):
Kick Efficiency: 74.2%
Meters Gained: 246
Intercept Possessions: 7.33
Turnovers: 3.0
Intercept Marks: 2.46
Score Involvements: 3.58
Score Launches: 1.79
Contested Defense Win Rate: 75%

Jack Lukosius 2nd season (2020):
Kick Efficiency: 70.5%
Meters Gained: 441
Intercept Possessions: 4.75
Turnovers: 3.9
Intercept Marks: 1.16
Score Involvements: 2.75
Score Launches: 1.0
Contested Defense Win Rate: 50%

I know some people don't want to believe it but Jake Lever was a really good player

 

[Scorpus]

Lever was playing in a defensive group in 2016 in which Talia, Brown and possibly Laird had statistically career best years. 2017 was a pretty good for the group as well.

Agree Lever was great in those years. Lever was also drafted as a defender, whereas Lukosius played predominantly as forward pre draft.

Lukosius is now 3rd in total metres gained, and 5th in average meters per game. 8th in total rebound 50's. 12th in average kicks per game. I don't think Lever ranks close to top in anything this year.

The question really is was Levers form a reflection of the sum of the group around him.

I don't think Lever has been anywhere near as good at Melbourne. They aren't playing him in the same role.

The claim was that Luko is tracking well behind Lever at the same age and I think that's true in most aspects outside meters gained. Both are good players but I think people are clearly forgetting how exceptional Lever was in his first years

 

[FAITH]

Anderson played like 4 games with Rowell, who would've thought that Anderson would look more comfortable 10 games down the track......

#ChayceJones

If EH keeps developing, I'd favour McDonald simply because I don't think Fog is a certainty to develop. EH as KPF/second ruck and McDonald as pure forward sounds like a good forward spine to me and better balanced.

PMBangers has Logan at 1 now. Few experts getting on board.

 

[SaltPeter]

It seems that me jumping off him after 2 years pumping his tyres with you and Nikki was just the tonic the young lad needed

I'd have no problem if list sizes stay the same giving Himmelberg an extension and still look at drafting another KPF with the first pick. If he continues to improve all well and good and it may create some trade value in a few years time.

It seems to me that Strachan is the tall who is most likely to fall by the wayside this year.

 

[FAITH]

I think Luko is doing great as an intercepting defender. Obviously tracking well behind Lever at the same age, but still a very promising young player.

absolutely.
i'm probably alone here, but i expect more from a pick 2 in a super draft than neat kicking and metres gained.

 

[morris086]

I like the look of Brayden Cook, strong one on one and plays with a bit of arrogance. Kicked 5.5 on the weekend and led south to a come from behind win. Plays on the wing but has kicked 13 goals over the last month.

 

[FAITH]

Jake Lever 2nd season (2016):
Kick Efficiency: 74.2%
Meters Gained: 246
Intercept Possessions: 7.33
Turnovers: 3.0
Intercept Marks: 2.46
Score Involvements: 3.58
Score Launches: 1.79
Contested Defense Win Rate: 75%

Jack Lukosius 2nd season (2020):
Kick Efficiency: 70.5%
Meters Gained: 441
Intercept Possessions: 4.75
Turnovers: 3.9
Intercept Marks: 1.16
Score Involvements: 2.75
Score Launches: 1.0
Contested Defense Win Rate: 50%

I know some people don't want to believe it but Jake Lever was a really good player

Lever was top quality and at a much more advanced level than Luko is right now.

 

[Tex200]

Jake Lever 2nd season (2016):
Kick Efficiency: 74.2%
Meters Gained: 246
Intercept Possessions: 7.33
Turnovers: 3.0
Intercept Marks: 2.46
Score Involvements: 3.58
Score Launches: 1.79
Contested Defense Win Rate: 75%

Jack Lukosius 2nd season (2020):
Kick Efficiency: 70.5%
Meters Gained: 441
Intercept Possessions: 4.75
Turnovers: 3.9
Intercept Marks: 1.16
Score Involvements: 2.75
Score Launches: 1.0
Contested Defense Win Rate: 50%

I know some people don't want to believe it but Jake Lever was a really good player

It’s a meaningless comparison when Luko has played just 12 games and will only play 17. He also plays the equivalent of 3 quarters not 4.

We all know Luko won’t ever get the kudos he’ll deserve:

1. He doesn’t play for a Melb team
2. He’s not a Victorian to be cheered home to Melb

That’s ok, I’d take him any day over Lever, just my opinion

 

[hey shorty]

I don't think Lever has been anywhere near as good at Melbourne. They aren't playing him in the same role.

The claim was that Luko is tracking well behind Lever at the same age and I think that's true in most aspects outside meters gained. Both are good players but I think people are clearly forgetting how exceptional Lever was in his first years

I think Luko is the more versatile but Lever was certainly very good

 

[Mutineer]

Jake Lever 2nd season (2016):
Kick Efficiency: 74.2%
Meters Gained: 246
Intercept Possessions: 7.33
Turnovers: 3.0
Intercept Marks: 2.46
Score Involvements: 3.58
Score Launches: 1.79
Contested Defense Win Rate: 75%

Jack Lukosius 2nd season (2020):
Kick Efficiency: 70.5%
Meters Gained: 441
Intercept Possessions: 4.75
Turnovers: 3.9
Intercept Marks: 1.16
Score Involvements: 2.75
Score Launches: 1.0
Contested Defense Win Rate: 50%

I know some people don't want to believe it but Jake Lever was a really good player

I know some people don't want to believe it but Luko >>>>>>>>>>>>>Leaver

 

[Crow till I die]

I only saw snippets last night, but in the 10 total minutes I got to see, Lukosius had three or four kicks - a few of them under pressure but all of them 40+ meters out in front of a team mates advantage.

Adelaide would be lucky for our entire team to have that many kicks to team mates advantage in a game.

100%. one of his kicks - 40+m was when he was in traffic and just being grabbed - he hit the kick out in front of the leading forward who had his man right up his arse and it was inch perfect inside forward 50 - from memory it went over the head of the Richmond player 15 ahead of the leading forward. I hope sometime soon someone puts up some highlights of his game last night

 

[Freshj]

Can someone point me towards some eddie ford highlights??

 

[Snake_Baker]

It's interesting looking at start up clubs - us, Freo, Port, GC, GWS - put admin together, get draft concessions, develop the list, then maybe a flag 7-10 years down the line. They seem to need to put things together, get an initial practice run before rebuilding/tinker slightly before being able to reach the ultimate - this is like us & Port.

Freo seem to nearly get there but just missed with Lyons and needed to go back to the drawing board. If you don't snag a flag within 10 years of your initial startup concessions, then you just join the rest of the comp in the cycle of rebuild, become competitive challenger and then rinse and repeat.

GC's initial attempts just didn't work - maybe because being in a non-traditional AFL state made it harder to get together an admin with AFL know-how? GWS' setup may have learnt from GC's but may or may not quite get there. And now with the recent generous concessions given, maybe GC will have learnt from their early days and should find success soon.

The real long term problem arises when club pulls the pin too early on their rebiuilds, Carlton being notorious for it.

You don't want your club doing this. Book in for a couple more years of pain.

POrt got a flag, GC went too early on the likes of Ablett when they should have looked for budget consolidation players, but now appear to be settling properly after mutiple years of building, certainly more than was required, and Freo fell over at the starting gate with Neesham.

IMO, GWS are a coach related matter, as I reckon they should have 2 flags in the bank.

 

[Mr Alldayeveryday]

I would bid on JUH at 1, take Hollands at 2, bid on Campbell hoping Sydney match. Trade pick with Freo for pick swap and next year 1st. On current ladder Roos and hawks would have the next pick. This would allow crows to get Thilthorpe and add another pick for next year.

Due to the compromised draft, crows should be able to get a good mid with giants pick if they finish out of the 8.

Everyone is tradeable for the right price. This is the right time to accumulate talent on the list even it’s sitting near bottom next year. 2022 should be the crows target to show significant improvement and start pushing for the 8.

If Freo are dumb enough to do this then its good. I don't think they are.

 

[Scorpus]

I know some people don't want to believe it but Luko >>>>>>>>>>>>>Leaver

I think long term Luko will be the better player and I would have him over Lever, especially given how Lever is playing right now

 

[Mutineer]

Comment Mutineer .....who's the best ruckman for us to take, that has a leap of more than 10 cm and isn't a puffcake like English

Sandringham Dragon's Max Heath is the one Rendell was talking up as possibly the best Ruck in this draft, can't comment as I've never seen him play. Of those I've seen I wouldn't be over keen on any of them. For SA outside of Riley Thilthorpe the only one that's impressed me at all is WWT's Zach Phillips 198cm who looks reasonably athletic and does get involved around the ground.

I was hopeful coming into the season his 202cm teammate Forward/Ruck Henry Smith would get more exposure in the Ruck but had a late start to the season and has played the bulk of his time up forward....Showed a bit in that U17's Future Stars game on Grand Final day last year so obviously he is rated by recruiters.

eDPS has tickets on WA tall Shannon Neale but I've not seen enough to pass an honest assessment, another WA Ruck putting up some impressive numbers is Michael Mallard but I've not seen him play.

Zach Reid mentioned there hasn't played a lot of Ruck as far as I know more a KPP player when I've seen him play for Gippy Power, no doubt he'd have played some Ruck in his top age year but there has to be ??

 

[FAITH]

I know some people don't want to believe it but Luko >>>>>>>>>>>>>Leaver

But Lever>>>>>>Luko?

 

[Golumless]

What is our football philosophy or Nicks


Or better put : what is the trend and are we able to get ahead of that?

In 2017 we relied on 2 KPFs with Lynch playing higher. Jenkins aerobic fitness (whatever happened to that) brought our small forwards in

Do we continue that or change it?

That decides your picks

Is Berg and Fog the answer? Thilthorpe looks to be more steadier than Berg but would still be 2022 ready

tl,dr : do we trust the club to get it right

You have to change that structure as it only worked in an ideal scenario.

On top of that, the Lynch role is garbage outside of that structure, with the ideal being one higher KPF and two playing deeper. You'd then want to surround them with small/medium forwards (and some can ideally rotate into the midfield to boot). That should be the blueprint for a sustainable forward line.

 

[feenix67]

It’s a meaningless comparison when Luko has played just 12 games and will only play 17. He also plays the equivalent of 3 quarters not 4.

We all know Luko won’t ever get the kudos he’ll deserve:

1. He doesn’t play for a Melb team
2. He’s not a Victorian to be cheered home to Melb

That’s ok, I’d take him any day over Lever, just my opinion

Not only that, he hasn't spent all of his young career at half back, so those stats are pointless.

 

[kulak]

What is our football philosophy or Nicks


Or better put : what is the trend and are we able to get ahead of that?

In 2017 we relied on 2 KPFs with Lynch playing higher. Jenkins aerobic fitness (whatever happened to that) brought our small forwards in

Do we continue that or change it?

That decides your picks

Is Berg and Fog the answer? Thilthorpe looks to be more steadier than Berg but would still be 2022 ready

tl,dr : do we trust the club to get it right

Premiership formula:

Multiple high skill midfielders. Skill relatively more important than pace and size

At least one elite marking forward. As long as they can make a contest, athleticism and skill (Jack Riewoldt, Roughead) is more important than size (Levi Casboult and Tom Hawkins)

At least one very good rebounding defender (Birchall, Johannisen, Houli).

At least one elite small forward. Draft them last. Ideally has surname Rioli.

Other roles:
- a great key defender is not mandatory, you can get by with pretty good eg Lake and Frawley
- a big (190cm) contest winning midfielder eg Cripps, Wines is definitely not mandatory. If you must have one they better be high skill eg Bontempelli.

I would be spending every early pick on players who have a chance to be elite skilful midfielders or elite athletic key forwards.

Once that is in place then you can tailor pick for needs around your current group. Eg Richmond continue to draft pace and pressure to guarantee they can always win the pressure game. Eg West Coast want to kick-mark so they keep their stocks of talls populated.