List Mgmt. 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[Chief]

This is Part 1

The thread is continued in part 2:

List Mgmt. - 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread - Part 2

This Part 2 Continued from Part 1: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-list-management-free-agency-trade-thread.1241035/ What type of players does our list need? Pace, Skill, Class and and goal threat. A winger, forward flank and forward pocket are the 3 positions that we need, plus...

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[Snuffaluphagus]

I still lose sleep over us giving up the chance in the trade/draft period of 2018 to have anyone of these options, in what has turned out to be a generational draft....

Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & Lachie Neale (for another year and a subsequent trade in 2019)
Pick 5 (Connor Rozee) Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & loose change

But we went with the obviously very talented Sam Sturt (who can't get on the field) and a broken down (known) Jesse Hogan on a million a year, for 13 goals in 15 games and continued bad publicity (his off-field behaviour known) .

I feel the club has escaped the scrutiny of this, which was obvious, to a good majority of us at the time, as a bad decision. I was stoked to have Hogan and I still wish like hell that he plays a meaningful role for the club... but my god, what a disaster.

I keep saying 'we' and the 'club' but it's apparent now that this was mostly Steve Rosich, in what was a desperate attempt to bring immediate success to the club in his final days.

How could someone that works in the interest of tens of thousands of people, make such an irrational and impatient decision?

I'm obviously really angry about this,

I think its easy to do in hindsight, and something I have done myself but no list manager could possibly have turned down Hogan (he's also on nowhere near 1m) and Lobb in favour of taking untried players. Especially given both players are exactly what we needed.

The only thing I think we could have done better is not break up one of those top 10 picks for Lobb.

It should have been essentially Neale for Hogan and GWS to take whatever else for Lobb

 

[summerthebat]

Hogan isn't on a million, he actually took a pay cut to come home. Lobb is on more.

Lachie Neale would have been a free agent in 2019. Don't expect a trade for him at the end of that season.

Bailey Smith is the player that was rumoured to have a note from his doctor that he wouldn't handle living interstate and would need to come home.

OK Bailey Smith was an example, I feel foolish now for not knowing about the doctor's note, there's another five players after him who are contributing and projecting more than Hogan.

Neale would have been a restricted FA at the end of 2019 and on the proposed wage they were offering, we would have received a decent compensation, but not as much as what we would have trading him in 2018.

Are you trying to convince me that it was the right decision? Because that's not going to happen.

 

[summerthebat]

I think its easy to do in hindsight, and something I have done myself but no list manager could possibly have turned down Hogan (he's also on nowhere near 1m) and Lobb in favour of taking untried players. Especially given both players are exactly what we needed.

The only thing I think we could have done better is not break up one of those top 10 picks for Lobb.

It should have been essentially Neale for Hogan and GWS to take whatever else for Lobb

Sorry about the one million claims, I'm working off his reported absurd early request of an eight year-eight million dollar contract, so I assumed he didn't go from wanting a million a year to $300,000 a year.

I'll argue that a good list manager should have absolutely turned down Hogan given his recent injury history and known off-field issues, in conjunction with a strong reliance on a head scouts opinion that can asses the strength of drafts.

My gripe is with the disarray in the office, with Lloyd leaving, Rosich, despite no qualifications, made decisions that were self-interested that has hindered the subsequent on-field success of the football.

I'M STILL ANGRY, SOMEONE CALM ME DOWN

 

[Paracleet]

Sorry about the one million claims, I'm working off his reported absurd early request of an eight year-eight million dollar contract, so I assumed he didn't go from wanting a million a year to $300,000 a year.

I'll argue that a good list manager should have absolutely turned down Hogan given his recent injury history and known off-field issues, in conjunction with a strong reliance on a head scouts opinion that can asses the strength of drafts.

My gripe is with the disarray in the office, with Lloyd leaving, Rosich, despite no qualifications, made decisions that were self-interested that has hindered the subsequent on-field success of the football.

I'M STILL ANGRY, SOMEONE CALM ME DOWN

Mate Bell cut the Hogan deal.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Sorry about the one million claims, I'm working off his reported absurd early request of an eight year-eight million dollar contract, so I assumed he didn't go from wanting a million a year to $300,000 a year.

I'll argue that a good list manager should have absolutely turned down Hogan given his recent injury history and known off-field issues, in conjunction with a strong reliance on a head scouts opinion that can asses the strength of drafts.

My gripe is with the disarray in the office, with Lloyd leaving, Rosich, despite no qualifications, made decisions that were self-interested that has hindered the subsequent on-field success of the football.

I'M STILL ANGRY, SOMEONE CALM ME DOWN

Haha, would have to be a pretty bold list manager to turn him down, not sure too many, if any would if in the same situation.

Can understand the rage though

 

[summerthebat]

Mate Bell cut the Hogan deal.

Bell joined as the 'head of football' in September 2018, Rosich was the list manager between August 2018 when Lloyd left and December when Micallef joined.

Rosich was sacked less than 12 months later, Bell has been promoted, I think the 'why' is pretty obvious. Sure, Bell had a significant role in the negotiations, but there's absolutely no way it was his decision to bring over Jess Hogan in the 30 days he was at the club.

 

[Joao]

Haha, would have to be a pretty bold list manager to turn him down, not sure too many, if any would if in the same situation.

Can understand the rage though

I personally think it should have been blindingly obvious to turn him down. Potential career ending injury and known serious off-field issues? I'm with summerthebat that's an easy decision every day of the week if you are using the logical part of your brain. At the very least we should have given him 2019 to make sure the foot was ok.

It's not like we haven't had our fair share of off-field issue types either. Sure Sonny turned it around but the rest are in a heap or on their way there.

It is genuine incompetence based on the information we have. That's leaving out the strength of the 2018 top 10 as well.

 

[summerthebat]

Mate Bell cut the Hogan deal.

"They pulled out of it after the due diligence had been so thorough that serious alarm bells were ringing through the Fremantle recruiting and football management team, that they should back off and not bring Jesse Hogan in, he had too many problems.

"Steve Rosich overruled that decision, Friday into Saturday, and they went back into the chase some 20 hours later for Jesse Hogan.

 

[Paracleet]

Bell joined as the 'head of football' in September 2018, Rosich was the list manager between August 2018 when Lloyd left and December when Micallef joined.

Rosich was sacked less than 12 months later, Bell has been promoted, I think the 'why' is pretty obvious. Sure, Bell had a significant role in the negotiations, but there's absolutely no way it was his decision to bring over Jess Hogan in the 30 days he was at the club.

Rosich was dead man walking the moment Bell took the head of football role. Bell fronted all the press conferences about both Neale and Hogan. It was Bell that made a public show about 'suspending due diligence' on Hogan just as leading in to the trade period it was him that would acquire feathers for his hat if Neale stayed. It's all on Bell irrespective of how much of the preliminary work Rosich did in the lead up.

He could simply have torn those perspective deals up, but choose not too.

 

[rgauci]

"They pulled out of it after the due diligence had been so thorough that serious alarm bells were ringing through the Fremantle recruiting and football management team, that they should back off and not bring Jesse Hogan in, he had too many problems.

"Steve Rosich overruled that decision, Friday into Saturday, and they went back into the chase some 20 hours later for Jesse Hogan.

Don’t quote Hagdorn.

 

[summerthebat]

Now we're just going to have to sit back and watch as a golden generation of stars from the 2018 draft, redefine football as we know it, as Rosich runs the VRC into the ground on 500k a year

 

[Paracleet]

"Steve Rosich overruled that decision, Friday into Saturday, and they went back into the chase some 20 hours later for Jesse Hogan.

What's the source of this? How exactly could he do this anyway? Bell didn't report to him as CEO and as temporary list manager he reported to Bell.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I personally think it should have been blindingly obvious to turn him down. Potential career ending injury and known serious off-field issues? I'm with summerthebat that's an easy decision every day of the week if you are using the logical part of your brain. At the very least we should have given him 2019 to make sure the foot was ok.

It's not like we haven't had our fair share of off-field issue types either. Sure Sonny turned it around but the rest are in a heap or on their way there.

It is genuine incompetence based on the information we have. That's leaving out the strength of the 2018 top 10 as well.

As well as who is AB's number 1 fan is I suppose its another one we'll have to agree to disagree.

Think their are other factors that make it a very difficult choice to not take Hogan given the opportunity, especially if you consider we would have been chasing him for years and to actually pull out would have made us look very average to player managers.

Was there a clear and valid argument to not take him, absolutely, but that is a very difficult call to make.

 

[summerthebat]

From another article, this one implying more of a role by Bell.

''The majority of the list management department were sceptical about trading for Hogan, but Bell and Rosich were adamant they wanted him. As CEO, Rosich took on key list management duties last October, disenfranchising key members of the recruiting team. Hogan has endured a difficult season and there are serious doubts on his playing future.''

 

[Wilksyy]

I still lose sleep over us giving up the chance in the trade/draft period of 2018 to have anyone of these options, in what has turned out to be a generational draft....

Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & Lachie Neale (for another year and a subsequent trade in 2019)
Pick 5 (Connor Rozee) Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & loose change

I've been losing sleep over it too. Hindsight and all that, I think a lot of us wanted Bobby Hill at pick 6. Regardless, Bell did a fantastic job at the time, the type of trade move you can't fault, it just didn't work out. A step up from us trading Clement and Holland back in the day.

 

[Joao]

As well as who is AB's number 1 fan is I suppose its another one we'll have to agree to disagree.

Think their are other factors that make it a very difficult choice to not take Hogan given the opportunity, especially if you consider we would have been chasing him for years and to actually pull out would have made us look very average to player managers.

Was there a clear and valid argument to not take him, absolutely, but that is a very difficult call to make.

I'm genuinely surprised you think that but each to their own.

I also object to the idea it makes us looks poor to managers. I don't think it is the least bit controversial to not want to take on a player for a significant salary and trade cost when you find out that there are significant issues that come to light during the deal (on top of the known injury).

Not only that, but we should definitely have taken his issues into account when negotiating both prices. Pick 6 & 23 is overs for anyone (except maybe Carey) with two potential career enders hanging over them. I thought at the time it was borderline when all we knew about was the foot.

 

[Carnthedockers]

I still lose sleep over us giving up the chance in the trade/draft period of 2018 to have anyone of these options, in what has turned out to be a generational draft....

Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & Lachie Neale (for another year and a subsequent trade in 2019)
Pick 5 (Connor Rozee) Pick 6 (Ben King/Bailey Smith) & loose change

But we went with the obviously very talented Sam Sturt (who can't get on the field) and a broken down (known) Jesse Hogan on a million a year, for 13 goals in 15 games and continued bad publicity (his off-field behaviour known) .

I feel the club has escaped the scrutiny of this, which was obvious, to a good majority of us at the time, as a bad decision. I was stoked to have Hogan and I still wish like hell that he plays a meaningful role for the club... but my god, what a disaster.

I keep saying 'we' and the 'club' but it's apparent now that this was mostly Steve Rosich, in what was a desperate attempt to bring immediate success to the club in his final days.

How could someone that works in the interest of tens of thousands of people, make such an irrational and impatient decision?

I'm obviously really angry about this,

Lewis Jetta had barely done a thing after a year at eagles, continually getting dropped. Then he caught fire and helped win them a flag. Im happy with our choices at this stage. With a bit of luck for Jesse it will still turn out ok. We really do need another up and coming forward like oscar allen though. Not sure if Dixon will make it.

 

[summerthebat]

Regardless of the machinations and who is to blame, the benefit of hindsight, the unique circumstances that resulted in Neale leaving and Hogan coming. What is undeniable, that just 20 months after the 2018 trade period, how painfully apparent the decision making has proven to be wrong, and not just slightly wrong, really wrong. The decision making, made by industry professionals.

 

[Joao]

Regardless of the machinations and who is to blame, the benefit of hindsight, the unique circumstances that resulted in Neale leaving and Hogan coming. What is undeniable, that just 20 months after the 2018 trade period, how painfully apparent the decision making has proven to be wrong, and not just slightly wrong, really wrong. The decision making, made by industry professionals.

You shouldn't assess the decision on the outcome because you don't have that information at the time of decision. With this one I don't think you even need it since the information at the time was more than enough.

 

[Dockeroo]

I think at this stage, the hogan trade is looking disastrous. But there is still a chance that he will come good. I thought he was very decent for us this year particularly against Adelaide. One of the good decisions made was to restrict him to a 3 year deal. That in itself was interesting and suggests the club had reservations about a longer term deal. We will have a big decision to make at the end of 2021 when his contract expires. What do we do? Trade him out? Extend? All depends on what he gives us in the next season and a half I suppose?
On a separate note - I’ve had enough of these bloody messiah trades. They almost NEVER come off, and are even less likely to do so for a club like ours outside the Melbourne bubble.
If we keep going to the draft, we will be better in the long run.
In saying that - pick 6 in 2018 gave us A choice of Ben king or bailey smith. Blakey and Thomas were off the table due to academy’s. I’m not confident we would have kept either smith or king in Perth long term. Maybe 4 years. 6 maximum. They are very Melbourne metro types.

 

[Joao]

I think at this stage, the hogan trade is looking disastrous. But there is still a chance that he will come good. I thought he was very decent for us this year particularly against Adelaide. One of the good decisions made was to restrict him to a 3 year deal. That in itself was interesting and suggests the club had reservations about a longer term deal. We will have a big decision to make at the end of 2021 when his contract expires. What do we do? Trade him out? Extend? All depends on what he gives us in the next season and a half I suppose?
On a separate note - I’ve had enough of these bloody messiah trades. They almost NEVER come off, and are even less likely to do so for a club like ours outside the Melbourne bubble.
If we keep going to the draft, we will be better in the long run.
In saying that - pick 6 in 2018 gave us A choice of Ben king or bailey smith. Blakey and Thomas were off the table due to academy’s. I’m not confident we would have kept either smith or king in Perth long term. Maybe 4 years. 6 maximum. They are very Melbourne metro types.

Whilst there is noise around Smith I am curious to find out how well you personally know Ben King to make that call?

 

[Dockeroo]

Whilst there is noise around Smith I am curious to find out how well you personally know Ben King to make that call?

Don’t know him personally at all. But he’s got a twin brother playing for St Kilda. The risk has to be higher in that instance. Unless we were able to somehow swap draft picks and take the two Kings in that 2018 draft, then the chances of one moving back to vic are high. I just don’t see Ben king staying at GC long term - they have had to pay massive overs to keep him there already as shown by this article.

The major concern over tide-turning Ben King deal

Ben King’s contract extension has been hailed as a turning point for the Suns, but some aren't so sure.

www.google.com.au

For me this is the biggest problem with us constantly drafting high end Victorian talent. All of these guys will want big coin in a couple of years time. If as a club, we find ourselves paying an “avoid going home” Tax - i.e. having to pay $800k a season to keep a Victorian talent on the list that could have stayed for $600k if he was Western Australian, we won’t be long having salary cap issues. Particularly if we climb up the ladder and all our vic high draft picks develop into the players we all hope they become.

 

[Taylor]

... Hogan is playing football again and we win 20% more games with him in the side than without it.

Because we had no forward line before Lobb and Hogan showed up. We had Taberner and nobody.

 

[Purple Suit]

Regardless of the machinations and who is to blame, the benefit of hindsight, the unique circumstances that resulted in Neale leaving and Hogan coming. What is undeniable, that just 20 months after the 2018 trade period, how painfully apparent the decision making has proven to be wrong, and not just slightly wrong, really wrong. The decision making, made by industry professionals.

Way to early to call the trade. Hogan is still massively talented and helps us win games because he always takes a good defender. Still coming back from injury and could develop faster than the 2018 kids who are going to yo yo along. This year is a train wreck, going to have to wait an extra year to see the effect of the side with a bit more experience rather than full of kids.

 

[Joao]

Don’t know him personally at all. But he’s got a twin brother playing for St Kilda. The risk has to be higher in that instance. Unless we were able to somehow swap draft picks and take the two Kings in that 2018 draft, then the chances of one moving back to vic are high. I just don’t see Ben king staying at GC long term - they have had to pay massive overs to keep him there already as shown by this article.

The major concern over tide-turning Ben King deal

Ben King’s contract extension has been hailed as a turning point for the Suns, but some aren't so sure.

www.google.com.au

For me this is the biggest problem with us constantly drafting high end Victorian talent. All of these guys will want big coin in a couple of years time. If as a club, we find ourselves paying an “avoid going home” Tax - i.e. having to pay $800k a season to keep a Victorian talent on the list that could have stayed for $600k if he was Western Australian, we won’t be long having salary cap issues. Particularly if we climb up the ladder and all our vic high draft picks develop into the players we all hope they become.

That article has the opinions of Tom Browne and Brendan Goddard. The latter I don't care at all about and the former I only care if it is a matter that can be verified, which in this case it can not.

All of that stuff is just your opinion based on guesses and assumptions. It may be true, but it could also be totally false and you can't verify it either way.

I am confident that if GC thought they could hold him then we would think the same. Same goes for the rest of our Vic talent. You genuinely have no idea (nor do I) what drives these blokes but it is not as though our list management doesn't take that into consideration.

TLDR: Give me some evidence (not other opinion pieces either), not your opinion if you want me to change my mind.

... Hogan is playing football again and we win 20% more games with him in the side than without it.

Because we had no forward line before Lobb and Hogan showed up. We had Taberner and nobody.

Sure but how sure are you that King wouldn't have a similar effect even this year? He kicks more goals than Jesse does. Also plays more games. Clearly will get a lot better injuries permitting and will be around 5+ years longer.


Lobb I can live with because he was noticeably cheaper and I can genuinely see Sturt = Rozee eventually.