List Mgmt. 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[Chief]

This is Part 1

The thread is continued in part 2:

List Mgmt. - 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread - Part 2

This Part 2 Continued from Part 1: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-list-management-free-agency-trade-thread.1241035/ What type of players does our list need? Pace, Skill, Class and and goal threat. A winger, forward flank and forward pocket are the 3 positions that we need, plus...

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[blue shark]

Now we're just going to have to sit back and watch as a golden generation of stars from the 2018 draft, redefine football as we know it, as Rosich runs the VRC into the ground on 500k a year

Not necessarily this years draft is choc full of talls, and if we use our 1st, 2nd rounder on one we can miss the iceberg.
That and Walker, etc, and talent wise we are way ahead compared to 2013.
Sure they may not be generational players, but across the board a good coach, system should have us firing by 2022.
Daniher was supposedly that type of player, Boyd at the Bulldogs, doesn't always stay on script.
Hogan is just not a power forward now, maybe as a manchild, between him and McCarthy they are natural footballers.
They are not players to build a forward line around, intimidate defenders, but part of the solution.
I'd take Tilthorpe, McDonald, Callow, DGB, in a heart beat, with Trew.
A few draft guys also think Callow with his vice like hands could dominate CHB.

 

[Taylor]

That article has the opinions of Tom Browne and Brendan Goddard. The latter I don't care at all about and the former I only care if it is a matter that can be verified, which in this case it can not.

All of that stuff is just your opinion based on guesses and assumptions. It may be true, but it could also be totally false and you can't verify it either way.

I am confident that if GC thought they could hold him then we would think the same. Same goes for the rest of our Vic talent. You genuinely have no idea (nor do I) what drives these blokes but it is not as though our list management doesn't take that into consideration.

TLDR: Give me some evidence (not other opinion pieces either), not your opinion if you want me to change my mind.


Sure but how sure are you that King wouldn't have a similar effect even this year? He kicks more goals than Jesse does. Also plays more games. Clearly will get a lot better injuries permitting and will be around 5+ years longer.


Lobb I can live with because he was noticeably cheaper and I can genuinely see Sturt = Rozee eventually.

Hogan has achieved more than King and he can do it again. Ben King could be around for 5 extra years, or he could be gone in two.

 

[Joao]

Hogan has achieved more than King and he can do it again. Ben King could be around for 5 extra years, or he could be gone in two.

Not arguing that, I am arguing about what they are right now. Hogan isn't doing what he did at Melbourne. He is doing less and I think you would struggle to make a case he is making more of an impact than B.King. Especially since he has missed a lot of games for us already.

Also the last part of your sentence is a bit of an oversight since if we are being honest, I know which player is FAR more likely to not be on a list in 2 years and I suspect you do to.

 

[heypenny]

I haven't given up on the trade yet. Obviously hindsight is a very beautiful thing. It wasn't obvious how strong the 2018 draft was at the time and there are no guarantees on who we would have picked (i.e picking Polak in the top 5 of the famous 2001 Superdraft).

On paper the trade seemed like a no brainer. We as a club had been crying (literally crying) for a key position forward to replace Pavlich for years. There was a highly touted 23 year old West Australian who had already won a rising star (kicking 40+ goals in his first season), and had an average of more than 2 goals a game in his first 70 (pretty rare for a key position payer early in their career). For someone so talented, pick 6 (which is no guarantees in the draft) was a no brainer.

Hogan hasn't had a proper run at it yet. He's come into both seasons underdone (no preseason) and limited time to gel with the team and get his confidence back. Confidence is huge in sport. I haven't given up on the trade yet and have faith that he will come good.

 

[Taylor]

Not arguing that, I am arguing about what they are right now. Hogan isn't doing what he did at Melbourne. He is doing less and I think you would struggle to make a case he is making more of an impact than B.King. Especially since he has missed a lot of games for us already.

Also the last part of your sentence is a bit of an oversight since if we are being honest, I know which player is FAR more likely to not be on a list in 2 years and I suspect you do to.

My point isn't that Ben King won't be on a list, it's whether he is on ours.

 

[Joao]

My point isn't that Ben King won't be on a list, it's whether he is on ours.

Again, give me evidence of that.

And no, I don't accept Vic Metro as evidence.

 

[eastfreo75]

I haven't given up on the trade yet. Obviously hindsight is a very beautiful thing. It wasn't obvious how strong the 2018 draft was at the time and there are no guarantees on who we would have picked (i.e picking Polak in the top 5 of the famous 2001 Superdraft).

On paper the trade seemed like a no brainer. We as a club had been crying (literally crying) for a key position forward to replace Pavlich for years. There was a highly touted 23 year old West Australian who had already won a rising star (kicking 40+ goals in his first season), and had an average of more than 2 goals a game in his first 70 (pretty rare for a key position payer early in their career). For someone so talented, pick 6 (which is no guarantees in the draft) was a no brainer.

Hogan hasn't had a proper run at it yet. He's come into both seasons underdone (no preseason) and limited time to gel with the team and get his confidence back. Confidence is huge in sport. I haven't given up on the trade yet and have faith that he will come good.

Sorry but that just not true.

2018 top 7 were considered the super 7.

 

[tonygeeks]

When you draft players you obviously draft them with a focus on what they will do for your team , with some trades it always seems to me the focus is more on what players have done when the reality is this means absolutely nothing

Would we draft a young player with a bung foot , mental health and off field discipline issues at pick 6 ?

Not a chance that is the type of boom or bust player who drops to the 2nd or 3 rd round even if they are very talented


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[Taylor]

Again, give me evidence of that.

And no, I don't accept Vic Metro as evidence.

You could argue that our poor performance wouldn't have swayed him since he has won a total of three games in his whole career and all of them came after his contract extension but I don't think it's the same. He would be friends with Brayshaw, but would he have played 14 games with us in his first year when Lyon is trying to win enough games to not get fired? Does he sign the extension with Fremantle after the year we have minus the wins Hogan directly contributed in such as the GWS, Port games.

Not so sure.

 

[Joao]

I haven't given up on the trade yet. Obviously hindsight is a very beautiful thing. It wasn't obvious how strong the 2018 draft was at the time and there are no guarantees on who we would have picked (i.e picking Polak in the top 5 of the famous 2001 Superdraft).

On paper the trade seemed like a no brainer. We as a club had been crying (literally crying) for a key position forward to replace Pavlich for years. There was a highly touted 23 year old West Australian who had already won a rising star (kicking 40+ goals in his first season), and had an average of more than 2 goals a game in his first 70 (pretty rare for a key position payer early in their career). For someone so talented, pick 6 (which is no guarantees in the draft) was a no brainer.

Hogan hasn't had a proper run at it yet. He's come into both seasons underdone (no preseason) and limited time to gel with the team and get his confidence back. Confidence is huge in sport. I haven't given up on the trade yet and have faith that he will come good.

You just picked Hogan's good points. Include the full story. He is all that plus a potentially career threatening foot injury and mental health issues/off field issues. If you leave that off it does seem like a no-brainer, obviously. With it he feels like a ticking time-bomb.

You could argue that our poor performance wouldn't have swayed him since he has won a total of three games in his whole career and all of them came after his contract extension but I don't think it's the same. He would be friends with Brayshaw, but would he have played 14 games with us in his first year when Lyon is trying to win enough games to not get fired? Does he sign the extension with Fremantle after the year we have minus the wins Hogan directly contributed in such as the GWS, Port games.

Not so sure.

Ok so you have an opinion that Ross wouldn't play him and therefor he wouldn't re-sign. Not only that but you also know which games we would and would not have won if it was different.

That is pure speculation masquerading as an opinion masquerading as your evidence.

It's so absurd that I can just say King would have won the Coleman and it is no less valid. Maybe more absurd, but not less valid.

It's just ****ing lazy to assume that Vic Metro = go home. Worse, it is prejudice. The same thought process that goes into racism. Not as much malice but the same principle. Labeling a whole group based on the actions of a small subset of that group.

 

[Dockeroo]

Like I said earlier - I’ve had enough of these hero trades. Even Tim Kelly starting to look shaky across town. At the end of the day, a traded in player has a huge weight of expectation on his shoulders, especially one like hogan. When you pay a massive price like we did for hogan and eagles did for Kelly, they have to perform at outrageous levels in order for the trade to be considered mildly successful. If the eagles don’t win at least one flag, Kelly is a failure. If Hogan doesn’t kick 60 goals for us for a few seasons, it’s a failure.

 

[Joao]

Like I said earlier - I’ve had enough of these hero trades. Even Tim Kelly starting to look shaky across town. At the end of the day, a traded in player has a huge weight of expectation on his shoulders, especially one like hogan. When you pay a massive price like we did for hogan and eagles did for Kelly, they have to perform at outrageous levels in order for the trade to be considered mildly successful. If the eagles don’t win at least one flag, Kelly is a failure. If Hogan doesn’t kick 60 goals for us for a few seasons, it’s a failure.

I agree, most players would struggle with the pressure. It especially bothered me (even before we knew about all the mental/off field stuff) that most of his good games were against weaker teams. Not the sort of bloke to handle being the messiah. At least not yet.

 

[Taylor]

You just picked Hogan's good points. Include the full story. He is all that plus a potentially career threatening foot injury and mental health issues/off field issues. If you leave that off it does seem like a no-brainer, obviously. With it he feels like a ticking time-bomb.


Ok so you have an opinion that Ross wouldn't play him and therefor he wouldn't re-sign. Not only that but you also know which games we would and would not have won if it was different.

That is pure speculation masquerading as an opinion masquerading as your evidence.

It's so absurd that I can just say King would have won the Coleman and it is no less valid. Maybe more absurd, but not less valid.

It's just ****ing lazy to assume that Vic Metro = go home. Worse, it is prejudice. The same thought process that goes into racism. Not as much malice but the same principle. Labeling a whole group based on the actions of a small subset of that group.

How about you show me that he would have stayed at Freo and it not be speculation?

 

[Docker82]

I like Schultz, I think he could be a very good depth player/fringe best 22.

1. Mundy
2. Banfield
3. Matera
4. North
5. Watson
6. O'Reilly
7. McCarthy
8. Dixon - if he is not fit this year, then he won't be

Then you start looking at the other players, but I don't see us delisting more than 6.

Name Years Service Status
Bailey Banfield 3 Non-Free Agent
Brandon Matera 3 Non-Free Agent
Brennan Cox 4 Non-Free Agent
Brett Bewley 2 Non-Free Agent
Cameron McCarthy 4 Non-Free Agent
David Mundy 17 Unrestricted Free Agent
Dillon O'Reilly 2 Non-Free Agent
Hugh Dixon 3 Non-Free Agent
Isaiah Butters 1 Non-Free Agent
Jarvis Pina 1 Non-Free Agent
Jason Carter 2 Non-Free Agent
Lachlan Schultz 2 Non-Free Agent
Luke Valente 2 Non-Free Agent
Thomas North 1 Non-Free Agent
Tobe Watson 2 Non-Free Agent

I’m actually still expecting list cuts from the AFL tbh. 40 man lists would be likely imo, with 1-3 for category b rookies (would be surprised to see them go but reduced is possible, maybe likely).

If we see that they’ll be more than six delisted and they’ll come from the group above unless we trade a contracted player out.

 

[Joao]

How about you show me that he would have stayed at Freo and it not be speculation?

He signed with Gold Coast. We historically have better retention than them and outperformed them up to the point he re-signed.

It is speculation with evidence as opposed to just speculation.

If you actually provided numbers showing a large proportion of Vic Metro kids do in fact request trades or that twins are so many times more likely to end up at he same club, the claims would be on similar footing.

Let me add though, that what you just tried to do is shift the burden of proof. You claimed he would leave, I am not required to prove he wouldn't.

 

[mayne iac]

That article has the opinions of Tom Browne and Brendan Goddard. The latter I don't care at all about and the former I only care if it is a matter that can be verified, which in this case it can not.

All of that stuff is just your opinion based on guesses and assumptions. It may be true, but it could also be totally false and you can't verify it either way.

I am confident that if GC thought they could hold him then we would think the same. Same goes for the rest of our Vic talent. You genuinely have no idea (nor do I) what drives these blokes but it is not as though our list management doesn't take that into consideration.

TLDR: Give me some evidence (not other opinion pieces either), not your opinion if you want me to change my mind.


Sure but how sure are you that King wouldn't have a similar effect even this year? He kicks more goals than Jesse does. Also plays more games. Clearly will get a lot better injuries permitting and will be around 5+ years longer.


Lobb I can live with because he was noticeably cheaper and I can genuinely see Sturt = Rozee eventually.

Your whole big footy resume is based on assumptions, bloody hell

 

[Joao]

Your whole big footy resume is based on assumptions, bloody hell

Not sure of your point here.

 

[Dockeroo]

Only one generational talent from Melbourne has been drafted by a WA club. That was Chris Judd, he was drafted by the successful glamour team in WA at the time and he still only lasted 6 seasons here before requesting a trade. I think if we or the eagles had drafted Dusty or Dangerfield or Ablett, they would have requested a trade to Melbourne eventually. The commercial opportunities there are much greater than perth. That’s just my opinion.
A more pressing debate is what does Fremantle do next season when Hogan runs out of contract? If he’s still half injured/half fit and showing glimpses of talent do we extend his contract? Or put him on the trade table?

 

[mayne iac]

He signed with Gold Coast. We historically have better retention than them and outperformed them up to the point he re-signed.

It is speculation with evidence as opposed to just speculation.

If you actually provided numbers showing a large proportion of Vic Metro kids do in fact request trades or that twins are so many times more likely to end up at he same club, the claims would be on similar footing.

Let me add though, that what you just tried to do is shift the burden of proof. You claimed he would leave, I am not required to prove he wouldn't.

Omfg

 

[Joao]

Omfg

That's not a response. If you have a point spit it out.

 

[Joao]

A more pressing debate is what does Fremantle do next season when Hogan runs out of contract? If he’s still half injured/half fit and showing glimpses of talent do we extend his contract? Or put him on the trade table?

Don't think he will have many suitors if we aren't interested.

I think he will be in a similar situation that Cam has had for the last couple of years until he has a good period off-field behavior and on-field performance. Shorter contracts on less money.

If he gets all his **** together and gets anywhere near his potential he is in for a payday.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Only one generational talent from Melbourne has been drafted by a WA club. That was Chris Judd, he was drafted by the successful glamour team in WA at the time and he still only lasted 6 seasons here before requesting a trade. I think if we or the eagles had drafted Dusty or Dangerfield or Ablett, they would have requested a trade to Melbourne eventually. The commercial opportunities there are much greater than perth. That’s just my opinion.
A more pressing debate is what does Fremantle do next season when Hogan runs out of contract? If he’s still half injured/half fit and showing glimpses of talent do we extend his contract? Or put him on the trade table?

Would think that’s a no-brainer re-sign. Hogan on 300k has the potential to be an incredible contract. Even half fit he’s a valuable contributor in structure as shown this year I fee

 

[Taylor]

He signed with Gold Coast. We historically have better retention than them and outperformed them up to the point he re-signed.

It is speculation with evidence as opposed to just speculation.

If you actually provided numbers showing a large proportion of Vic Metro kids do in fact request trades or that twins are so many times more likely to end up at he same club, the claims would be on similar footing.

Let me add though, that what you just tried to do is shift the burden of proof. You claimed he would leave, I am not required to prove he wouldn't.

Actually, you claimed he would stay, at least as I saw it. Suggesting Hogan is less chance to be on a list in two years. But we are talking about Freo.

If I go to the effort to show how many brothers have requested a trade to play with each other, what would you have me exclude at the start so as to not waste time showing a stat that will be dismissed?

And the Vic Metro players requesting a trade home/moving from interstate teams. Any caveats on that?

 

[Paracleet]

There is 0 chance we would have let Lachie walk without it being the key to Hogan. So we didn't miss out on King.

 

[Joao]

Actually, you claimed he would stay, at least as I saw it. Suggesting Hogan is less chance to be on a list in two years. But we are talking about Freo.

If I go to the effort to show how many brothers have requested a trade to play with each other, what would you have me exclude at the start so as to not waste time showing a stat that will be dismissed?

And the Vic Metro players requesting a trade home/moving from interstate teams. Any caveats on that?

I believe the whole thing started with me responding to someone else claiming he would go home because twin and Vic Metro. You joined later. This is hardly unique to this discussion. The Vic Metro crap pops up 50 times a season, mostly in these threads.

I'd be genuinely interested and if it turns out the evidence is overwhelming I would change my position as I hope anyone would.

Of course. You'd be looking for first choice players leaving where there is no apparent financial or opportunity difference between the original club and destination club. I'd also be skeptical of any clubs who had a lot of players leave together (GC pre 2018 or Brisbane 5 etc) since I think there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the culture was playing a part. Make it obvious they just wanted to go home (Ed Langdon is a good example).