List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Tarasque36]

Any idea who our current Melbourne recruiting manager is?

Football Recruiting Manager
Adelaide Football Club Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

About the job

• Melbourne-based Full-time position.
• Reporting to National Recruitment Manger & GM List Management and Strategy
• Start in February 2022

The Football Recruiting Manager is a full-time position responsible for assisting with recruitment through the monitoring of football nationally. This position will be based in Melbourne, Victoria.

Can we apply as a Group? The Crows Bigfooty Recruitment Dept!
Time to shake up the recruiting process and place it back in the hands of the fans! Then we only have ourselves to blame

 

[aabp1978]

Can we apply as a Group? The Crows Bigfooty Recruitment Dept!
Time to shake up the recruiting process and place it back in the hands of the fans! Then we only have ourselves to blame

Interview Question 1: What is your approach to Recruitment
Answer: No David Mackay, Jake Kelly or Billy Frampton type players

I am sorry, we cant proceed with your application...

 

[FR0GGY]

Abab = marty

Marty was at least smart, but just liked to troll.

 

[Go the Guts]

To be a Charlie Cameron type you need to be an absolute monster on the defensive side of things. Firmly deserves to be considered a part of the Brisbane cake.

Rozee is closer to Fantasia than Cameron, but even that's a tad harsh. Port will be hoping he can be their next Gray.

He's got good pace but not even close to Gray's footy smarts.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'll make it easy for you....

Adelaide - Every Draft Pick Ever - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Ok here's my analysis .....like Mike Sheehans Top 50, no correspondence will be entered into


Summary
Country Draftees ......Success 10 ....Failures 7
Vic Draftees .............Success 15 ....Failures 15
Sth Aust Draftees .....Success 9 ......Failures 14

Year 2000

	Laurence Angwin	Dandenong U18
	Michael Handby	Dandenong U18
	Matthew Smith	Oakleigh U18
	Hayden Skipworth	Woodville-West Torrens
	Graham Johncock	Port Adelaide

Year 2001

Brent Reilly	Calder U18
Ben Finnin	Northern U18
Jacob Schuback	Sale/Gippsland

Year 2002

Luke Jericho	West Adelaide
James Begley	Sturt

Year 2003

Fergus Watts	Wesley College/Sandringham U18
Joshua Krueger	Glenelg
Ben Hudson	Uni of Queensland/Mount Gravatt/Werribee

Year 2004

John Meesen	Geelong U18
Nathan van Berlo	Whitford JFC/Sacred Heart College (WA)/West Perth
Chad Gibson	Norwood
Ivan Maric	Keilor/Calder U18
Chris Knights	Waverley Blues/Vermont/Eastern U18

Year 2005

Richard Douglas	Calder U18
Darren Pfeiffer	Norwood
Bernie Vince	Woodville-West Torrens
Alan Obst	Central District

Year 2006

James Sellar	Glenelg
Kurt Tippett	Southport
David Mackay	Beverley Hills/Trinity Grammar/Oakleigh U18
Nick Gill	Scotch College/Oakleigh U18
Bryce Campbell	Norwood

Year 2007

Patrick Dangerfield	Anglesea/Geelong U18
Andy Otten	Oakleigh U18
Jarrhan Jacky	Subiaco
Myke Cook	Sandringham U18
Tony Armstrong	Calder U18
Aaron Kite	Calder U18
Taylor Walker	North Broken Hill/NSW-ACT U18

Year 2008

Phil Davis	North Adelaide
Shaun McKernan	Tullamarine/Calder U18
Rory Sloane	Upwey-Tecoma/Eastern U18
Tom Lee	Swanbourne JFC/Scotch College (WA)/Claremont

Will Young North Ballarat U18
Year 2009

Daniel Talia	Calder U18
Jack Gunston	Sandringham U18
Sam Shaw	Oakleigh U18
James Craig	North Adelaide

Year 2010

Brodie Smith	Henley/Woodville-West Torrens
Jarryd Lyons	Sandringham U18

Year 2011

Sam Kerridge	Bendigo U18
Mitch Grigg	Athelstone/Norwood
Nick Joyce	Crystal Brook/Woodville-West Torrens
Cam Ellis-Yolmen	Woodville-West Torrens

Year 2013

Matt Crouch	North Ballarat
Riley Knight	Woodville-West Torren

Year 2014

Jake Lever	Calder U18
Harrison Wigg	North Adelaide
Mitch McGovern	Claremont
Harry Dear	Sandringham U18

Year 2015

Wayne Milera	Central District
Tom Doedee	Geelong U18

Year 2016

Jordan Gallucci	Eastern U18
Myles Poholke	Dandenong U18
Elliot Himmelberg	Queensland U18
Matt Signorello	Northern U18
Ben Davis

Year 2017

Darcy Fogarty	Glenelg
Andrew McPherson	Port District/Woodville-West Torrens
Patrick Wilson	Woodville South/Sturt

Year 2018

Chayce Jones	Tasmania U18
Ned McHenry	Geelong U18
William Hamill	Dandenong U18
Lachlan Sholl	Calder U18

 

[Skippos]

Thinking about what we should do with #4, and all I'm arriving on is i hate it.

JHF & Callaghan are gone. So we'll get second bite from a pool of the following categories.

Cat 1: Vanilla-ish mids who are good enough, but won't ever be game-breakers: Ward, Hobbs, Roberts, Sonsie, Taylor
Cat 2: More dynamic options but with clear bust potential: Erasmus, Goater, Rachele, Draper, Johnson
Cat 3: Key position players we really don't need: Gibcus, Andrew, Amiss
Cat 4: Outside flair with bust potential: Sinn, Chesser, Wanganeen-Milera

It just does nothing for me. Ward's probably the conservative option - he ends up a good player with a bit of hurt factor and won't be a waste, but he's a bit vanilla. Hobbs could be a Hopper or he could be a Dunstan - the peak doesn't inspire me. It's the same story for that category. Good players who make you good. But don't make you great. I like Sonsie a bit and feel like he's slipped in the eyes of many because of injury, but again, maybe a little meh.

Then the blokes who could potentially turn into list defining options all have clear paths to being absolute busts as well. Callaghan fits into Cat 2 as well I reckon. Do you really want to take a bloke with a high pick where you know there's a clear reality they end up a waste?

Then categories three and four are roles we probably need a little less and also have had a clear history of first round busts over the last 15 years. You're better off looking for outside run late as the ones up top often fail.

It's just uninspiring. The wrong draft to have a high pick in - you could slide down to 12 and end up with a similar risk/reward player to what you'd get at 4. Instead of Ward it might be Roberts. Instead of Erasmus it might be Johnson.

Really not sure what we should do. Trade it for Dawson? Probably better than the alternative. Try and trade it down? Not sure another club would be keen; they'd all see it the same way. Try and trade it up? It might be the one year where the overpay required to grab pick one is worth it. Try and trade into next year? Hard sell to supporters, but perhaps the % play with a couple of nice talents next year.

Right now I think Ward's possibly the best option without applying context. And he's the option that has the highest chance of helping us back into finals. But not to a flag. Erasmus might be that - he's probably who I'd look to pick right now if we did the draft tomorrow. But jeez, pick 4 feels steep for him. And busting 3 firsts in 4 years would hurt if it turned out that way.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Thinking about what we should do with #4, and all I'm arriving on is i hate it.

JHF & Callaghan are gone. So we'll get second bite from a pool of the following categories.

Cat 1: Vanilla-ish mids who are good enough, but won't ever be game-breakers: Ward, Hobbs, Roberts, Sonsie, Taylor
Cat 2: More dynamic options but with clear bust potential: Erasmus, Goater, Rachele, Draper, Johnson
Cat 3: Key position players we really don't need: Gibcus, Andrew, Amiss
Cat 4: Outside flair with bust potential: Sinn, Chesser, Wanganeen-Milera

It just does nothing for me. Ward's probably the conservative option - he ends up a good player with a bit of hurt factor and won't be a waste, but he's a bit vanilla. Hobbs could be a Hopper or he could be a Dunstan - the peak doesn't inspire me. It's the same story for that category. Good players who make you good. But don't make you great. I like Sonsie a bit and feel like he's slipped in the eyes of many because of injury, but again, maybe a little meh.

Then the blokes who could potentially turn into list defining options all have clear paths to being absolute busts as well. Callaghan fits into Cat 2 as well I reckon. Do you really want to take a bloke with a high pick where you know there's a clear reality they end up a waste?

Then categories three and four are roles we probably need a little less and also have had a clear history of first round busts over the last 15 years. You're better off looking for outside run late as the ones up top often fail.

It's just uninspiring. The wrong draft to have a high pick in - you could slide down to 12 and end up with a similar risk/reward player to what you'd get at 4. Instead of Ward it might be Roberts. Instead of Erasmus it might be Johnson.

Really not sure what we should do. Trade it for Dawson? Probably better than the alternative. Try and trade it down? Not sure another club would be keen; they'd all see it the same way. Try and trade it up? It might be the one year where the overpay required to grab pick one is worth it. Try and trade into next year? Hard sell to supporters, but perhaps the % play with a couple of nice talents next year.

Right now I think Ward's possibly the best option without applying context. And he's the option that has the highest chance of helping us back into finals. But not to a flag. Erasmus might be that - he's probably who I'd look to pick right now if we did the draft tomorrow. But jeez, pick 4 feels steep for him. And busting 3 firsts in 4 years would hurt if it turned out that way.

Thoughts on Mac Andrew .....has the potential IMO to be the #1 Draft pick in revision 5 years time

People comment on how thin he is ...look at his body at the start of this year, and now .....big difference already
Has the Nic Nat leap, but the cat-like reflex's once he hits the ground of a David Kantilla .....and speed for a 200+ player, WOW

 

[Mutineer]

Ok here's my analysis .....like Mike Sheehans Top 50, no correspondence will be entered into

View attachment 1234941
Summary
Country Draftees ......Success 10 ....Failures 7
Vic Draftees .............Success 14 ....Failures 16
Sth Aust Draftees .....Success 9 ......Failures 14

Year 2000

	Laurence Angwin	Dandenong U18
	Michael Handby	Dandenong U18
	Matthew Smith	Oakleigh U18
	Hayden Skipworth	Woodville-West Torrens
	Graham Johncock	Port Adelaide

Year 2001

Brent Reilly	Calder U18
Ben Finnin	Northern U18
Jacob Schuback	Sale/Gippsland

Year 2002

Luke Jericho	West Adelaide
James Begley	Sturt

Year 2003

Fergus Watts	Wesley College/Sandringham U18
Joshua Krueger	Glenelg
Ben Hudson	Uni of Queensland/Mount Gravatt/Werribee

Year 2004

John Meesen	Geelong U18
Nathan van Berlo	Whitford JFC/Sacred Heart College (WA)/West Perth
Chad Gibson	Norwood
Ivan Maric	Keilor/Calder U18
Chris Knights	Waverley Blues/Vermont/Eastern U18

Year 2005

Richard Douglas	Calder U18
Darren Pfeiffer	Norwood
Bernie Vince	Woodville-West Torrens
Alan Obst	Central District

Year 2006

James Sellar	Glenelg
Kurt Tippett	Southport
David Mackay	Beverley Hills/Trinity Grammar/Oakleigh U18
Nick Gill	Scotch College/Oakleigh U18
Bryce Campbell	Norwood

Year 2007

Patrick Dangerfield	Anglesea/Geelong U18
Andy Otten	Oakleigh U18
Jarrhan Jacky	Subiaco
Myke Cook	Sandringham U18
Tony Armstrong	Calder U18
Aaron Kite	Calder U18
Taylor Walker	North Broken Hill/NSW-ACT U18

Year 2008

Phil Davis	North Adelaide
Shaun McKernan	Tullamarine/Calder U18
Rory Sloane	Upwey-Tecoma/Eastern U18
Tom Lee	Swanbourne JFC/Scotch College (WA)/Claremont

Will Young North Ballarat U18
Year 2009

Daniel Talia	Calder U18
Jack Gunston	Sandringham U18
Sam Shaw	Oakleigh U18
James Craig	North Adelaide

Year 2010

Brodie Smith	Henley/Woodville-West Torrens
Jarryd Lyons	Sandringham U18

Year 2011

Sam Kerridge	Bendigo U18
Mitch Grigg	Athelstone/Norwood
Nick Joyce	Crystal Brook/Woodville-West Torrens
Cam Ellis-Yolmen	Woodville-West Torrens

Year 2013

Matt Crouch	North Ballarat
Riley Knight	Woodville-West Torren

Year 2014

Jake Lever	Calder U18
Harrison Wigg	North Adelaide
Mitch McGovern	Claremont
Harry Dear	Sandringham U18

Year 2015

Wayne Milera	Central District
Tom Doedee	Geelong U18

Year 2016

Jordan Gallucci	Eastern U18
Myles Poholke	Dandenong U18
Elliot Himmelberg	Queensland U18
Matt Signorello	Northern U18
Ben Davis

Year 2017

Darcy Fogarty	Glenelg
Andrew McPherson	Port District/Woodville-West Torrens
Patrick Wilson	Woodville South/Sturt

Year 2018

Chayce Jones	Tasmania U18
Ned McHenry	Geelong U18
William Hamill	Dandenong U18
Lachlan Sholl	Calder U18

Never change...
LOL @
David Mackay
Brett Reilly

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Never change...
LOL @
David Mackay
Brett Reilly

That was an oversight on Reilly ......but Mackay, any sane person couldn't dispute a 248 game player was not a success

 

[Scorpus]

Given who we drafted between 2000 and 2006 it's amazing we were a flag chance in 2005-06

Bust and spud galore those years. Wow.

EDIT: Ah right the list above doesn't include rookie picks like Rutten and Porplyzia

 

[Mutineer]

That was an oversight on Reilly ......but Mackay, any sane person couldn't dispute a 248 game player was not a success

And on my original post that we'd drafted way more Vic Metro lads than Vic Country lads which you seemed to doubt?

 

[Mutineer]

Given who we drafted between 2000 and 2006 it's amazing we were a flag chance in 2005-06

Bust and spud galore those years. Wow.

EDIT: Ah right the list above doesn't include rookie picks like Rutten and Porplyzia

 

[Skippos]

Thoughts on Mac Andrew .....has the potential IMO to be the #1 Draft pick in revision 5 years time

People comment on how thin he is ...look at his body at the start of this year, and now .....big difference already
Has the Nic Nat leap, but the cat-like reflex's once he hits the ground of a David Kantilla .....and speed for a 200+ player, WOW

He's one I'm not going to advocate either way on because a lot of how I'd assess him depends on how he interviews/screens for character. Being a 'project' requires so much more resilience, hard work & patience compared to the plug and play types.

Agree - the canvas is very, very appealing. But the work required to be that player is very high. He'd need to enter the system and invest so much time and energy into improvement (both physically and on the field) and be extremely coachable. Like, be in the top 25% of draftees for those things. Players with his canvas but without the desire/work rate/coachability rarely end up a success.

It's effectively the difference between Naitanui and Tony Olango - who could have been Naitanui if he'd wanted it. But he didn't, and in that role talent gets you nowhere without work.

But agree - if he gets there, could be a revisionist #1. I'm certainly taking Luke Jackson #1 in his year and Tim English top few too if we do it again. Those players are so worthwhile if the make the grade.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agree - the canvas is very, very appealing. But the work required to be that player is very high. He'd need to enter the system and invest so much time and energy into improvement (both physically and on the field) and be extremely coachable. Like, be in the top 25% of draftees for those things. Players with his canvas but without the desire/work rate/coachability rarely end up a success.

Totally agree .....we can only judge any player on his footy skills ..but equally important is his motivation, his hunger to improve ...and this is why so many talented, supremely talented players, have failed

The added consideration with Mac Andrew is how easily would he assimilate to another state, away from his family

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Sounds like the Adelaide offer is conservative ....and maybe no games guarantee ?
Any mention of Adelaide & Stephens, seems to have us as a tag on option .....maybe because any Sth Aust player is automatically linked to coming home ......real or not

 

[Peter Doherty]

Has there been any dates floated yet for the draft?

 

[70lethal]

Given who we drafted between 2000 and 2006 it's amazing we were a flag chance in 2005-06

Bust and spud galore those years. Wow.

EDIT: Ah right the list above doesn't include rookie picks like Rutten and Porplyzia

2001 Reilly, Hentschel, Bock, Rutten, Mattner ( quarter of a starting 22 in one draft).
Some of the traded in players Thompson, Stevens, Torney, Carey, Massie, Bode, Clarke and Welsh

High draft picks for midfielders and trade the rest in. We need 4-6 players traded in over the next 2-3 years to propel the squad to finals.

The worst result is Clarkson to coach GC in 2023, no way I would leave if he was announced coach.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

No.

It was reflective of the sub standard administration that infected the club at the time

you’re basically siding with that crab Trigg over Rendell

Thinking about what we should do with #4, and all I'm arriving on is i hate it.

JHF & Callaghan are gone. So we'll get second bite from a pool of the following categories.

Cat 1: Vanilla-ish mids who are good enough, but won't ever be game-breakers: Ward, Hobbs, Roberts, Sonsie, Taylor
Cat 2: More dynamic options but with clear bust potential: Erasmus, Goater, Rachele, Draper, Johnson
Cat 3: Key position players we really don't need: Gibcus, Andrew, Amiss
Cat 4: Outside flair with bust potential: Sinn, Chesser, Wanganeen-Milera

It just does nothing for me. Ward's probably the conservative option - he ends up a good player with a bit of hurt factor and won't be a waste, but he's a bit vanilla. Hobbs could be a Hopper or he could be a Dunstan - the peak doesn't inspire me. It's the same story for that category. Good players who make you good. But don't make you great. I like Sonsie a bit and feel like he's slipped in the eyes of many because of injury, but again, maybe a little meh.

Then the blokes who could potentially turn into list defining options all have clear paths to being absolute busts as well. Callaghan fits into Cat 2 as well I reckon. Do you really want to take a bloke with a high pick where you know there's a clear reality they end up a waste?

Then categories three and four are roles we probably need a little less and also have had a clear history of first round busts over the last 15 years. You're better off looking for outside run late as the ones up top often fail.

It's just uninspiring. The wrong draft to have a high pick in - you could slide down to 12 and end up with a similar risk/reward player to what you'd get at 4. Instead of Ward it might be Roberts. Instead of Erasmus it might be Johnson.

Really not sure what we should do. Trade it for Dawson? Probably better than the alternative. Try and trade it down? Not sure another club would be keen; they'd all see it the same way. Try and trade it up? It might be the one year where the overpay required to grab pick one is worth it. Try and trade into next year? Hard sell to supporters, but perhaps the % play with a couple of nice talents next year.

Right now I think Ward's possibly the best option without applying context. And he's the option that has the highest chance of helping us back into finals. But not to a flag. Erasmus might be that - he's probably who I'd look to pick right now if we did the draft tomorrow. But jeez, pick 4 feels steep for him. And busting 3 firsts in 4 years would hurt if it turned out that way.

I’d try and trade into getting 2 players in CAT 2 and hope at least one is an absolute gun , they’re more the types we need at this stage and best case is getting 2 absolute game changers

 

[GreyCrow]

That was an oversight on Reilly ......but Mackay, any sane person couldn't dispute a 248 game player was not a success

Oversight on Begley as well. Are you related?

No way Begley is a tick

 

[70lethal]

Rozee is an absolute jet. Would take him in a heartbeat, but he’s not going anywhere unless Port decide to hit the self destruct button.

The power made out like bandits in that draft while we sat on our hands. We need to lift our game at the trade and draft table, or the 2018 draft looks as defining both SA clubs for the next 5-10 years. It may do anyway.

Powa have done extremely well with their 3 picks.
I think we will look back and see 3-4 very good players.
There was serious improvement and if Burgess arrives this year some of these guys will transform into very different players.
Unfortunately Hamills concussions may be his limiting factor.
Strachan could be interesting moving forward.

If this is our worse draft out of 2018-2020 then its not looking to bad.

Most Disposals in a game this year.
1. Butters 36
2. Sholl 31
3. McHenry, Duursma 24
5. Rozee 23
6. Jones, Woodcock 19
7. Strachan 18
8. Butts 17
9. Hamill 16
10. Grundy, Cox 0

 

[dogs105]

Ok here's my analysis .....like Mike Sheehans Top 50, no correspondence will be entered into

View attachment 1234941
Summary
Country Draftees ......Success 10 ....Failures 7
Vic Draftees .............Success 14 ....Failures 16
Sth Aust Draftees .....Success 9 ......Failures 14

Year 2000

	Laurence Angwin	Dandenong U18
	Michael Handby	Dandenong U18
	Matthew Smith	Oakleigh U18
	Hayden Skipworth	Woodville-West Torrens
	Graham Johncock	Port Adelaide

Year 2001

Brent Reilly	Calder U18
Ben Finnin	Northern U18
Jacob Schuback	Sale/Gippsland

Year 2002

Luke Jericho	West Adelaide
James Begley	Sturt

Year 2003

Fergus Watts	Wesley College/Sandringham U18
Joshua Krueger	Glenelg
Ben Hudson	Uni of Queensland/Mount Gravatt/Werribee

Year 2004

John Meesen	Geelong U18
Nathan van Berlo	Whitford JFC/Sacred Heart College (WA)/West Perth
Chad Gibson	Norwood
Ivan Maric	Keilor/Calder U18
Chris Knights	Waverley Blues/Vermont/Eastern U18

Year 2005

Richard Douglas	Calder U18
Darren Pfeiffer	Norwood
Bernie Vince	Woodville-West Torrens
Alan Obst	Central District

Year 2006

James Sellar	Glenelg
Kurt Tippett	Southport
David Mackay	Beverley Hills/Trinity Grammar/Oakleigh U18
Nick Gill	Scotch College/Oakleigh U18
Bryce Campbell	Norwood

Year 2007

Patrick Dangerfield	Anglesea/Geelong U18
Andy Otten	Oakleigh U18
Jarrhan Jacky	Subiaco
Myke Cook	Sandringham U18
Tony Armstrong	Calder U18
Aaron Kite	Calder U18
Taylor Walker	North Broken Hill/NSW-ACT U18

Year 2008

Phil Davis	North Adelaide
Shaun McKernan	Tullamarine/Calder U18
Rory Sloane	Upwey-Tecoma/Eastern U18
Tom Lee	Swanbourne JFC/Scotch College (WA)/Claremont

Will Young North Ballarat U18
Year 2009

Daniel Talia	Calder U18
Jack Gunston	Sandringham U18
Sam Shaw	Oakleigh U18
James Craig	North Adelaide

Year 2010

Brodie Smith	Henley/Woodville-West Torrens
Jarryd Lyons	Sandringham U18

Year 2011

Sam Kerridge	Bendigo U18
Mitch Grigg	Athelstone/Norwood
Nick Joyce	Crystal Brook/Woodville-West Torrens
Cam Ellis-Yolmen	Woodville-West Torrens

Year 2013

Matt Crouch	North Ballarat
Riley Knight	Woodville-West Torren

Year 2014

Jake Lever	Calder U18
Harrison Wigg	North Adelaide
Mitch McGovern	Claremont
Harry Dear	Sandringham U18

Year 2015

Wayne Milera	Central District
Tom Doedee	Geelong U18

Year 2016

Jordan Gallucci	Eastern U18
Myles Poholke	Dandenong U18
Elliot Himmelberg	Queensland U18
Matt Signorello	Northern U18
Ben Davis

Year 2017

Darcy Fogarty	Glenelg
Andrew McPherson	Port District/Woodville-West Torrens
Patrick Wilson	Woodville South/Sturt

Year 2018

Chayce Jones	Tasmania U18
Ned McHenry	Geelong U18
William Hamill	Dandenong U18
Lachlan Sholl	Calder U18

You seem to have accidentally put a cross next to Brent Reilly

 

[Golumless]

Powa have done extremely well with their 3 picks.
I think we will look back and see 3-4 very good players.
There was serious improvement and if Burgess arrives this year some of these guys will transform into very different players.
Unfortunately Hamills concussions may be his limiting factor.
Strachan could be interesting moving forward.

If this is our worse draft out of 2018-2020 then its not looking to bad.

Most Disposals in a game this year.
1. Butters 36
2. Sholl 31
3. McHenry, Duursma 24
5. Rozee 23
6. Jones, Woodcock 19
7. Strachan 18
8. Butts 17
9. Hamill 16
10. Grundy, Cox 0

They've definitely got 3 long term players, and no matter the hand, that's a pretty solid result. The challenge will be holding Duursma and Butters though for them, seeing they'll certainly have suitors and Port could be primed to tumble down the ladder.

Ours is also looking solid, though it's probably hinging on Sholl/Butts to be that gun that pushes it higher. Jones and McHenry look pretty set to cement a best 22 role in our side at worst case.

 

[70lethal]

Thinking about what we should do with #4, and all I'm arriving on is i hate it.

JHF & Callaghan are gone. So we'll get second bite from a pool of the following categories.

Cat 1: Vanilla-ish mids who are good enough, but won't ever be game-breakers: Ward, Hobbs, Roberts, Sonsie, Taylor
Cat 2: More dynamic options but with clear bust potential: Erasmus, Goater, Rachele, Draper, Johnson
Cat 3: Key position players we really don't need: Gibcus, Andrew, Amiss
Cat 4: Outside flair with bust potential: Sinn, Chesser, Wanganeen-Milera

It just does nothing for me. Ward's probably the conservative option - he ends up a good player with a bit of hurt factor and won't be a waste, but he's a bit vanilla. Hobbs could be a Hopper or he could be a Dunstan - the peak doesn't inspire me. It's the same story for that category. Good players who make you good. But don't make you great. I like Sonsie a bit and feel like he's slipped in the eyes of many because of injury, but again, maybe a little meh.

Then the blokes who could potentially turn into list defining options all have clear paths to being absolute busts as well. Callaghan fits into Cat 2 as well I reckon. Do you really want to take a bloke with a high pick where you know there's a clear reality they end up a waste?

Then categories three and four are roles we probably need a little less and also have had a clear history of first round busts over the last 15 years. You're better off looking for outside run late as the ones up top often fail.

It's just uninspiring. The wrong draft to have a high pick in - you could slide down to 12 and end up with a similar risk/reward player to what you'd get at 4. Instead of Ward it might be Roberts. Instead of Erasmus it might be Johnson.

Really not sure what we should do. Trade it for Dawson? Probably better than the alternative. Try and trade it down? Not sure another club would be keen; they'd all see it the same way. Try and trade it up? It might be the one year where the overpay required to grab pick one is worth it. Try and trade into next year? Hard sell to supporters, but perhaps the % play with a couple of nice talents next year.

Right now I think Ward's possibly the best option without applying context. And he's the option that has the highest chance of helping us back into finals. But not to a flag. Erasmus might be that - he's probably who I'd look to pick right now if we did the draft tomorrow. But jeez, pick 4 feels steep for him. And busting 3 firsts in 4 years would hurt if it turned out that way.

Parish broke out in year 6
Petracca year 5
Steele went from 22 disposals to 29 in year 7
Zorko, Kelly, Menegola, Barlow where how old?

Maybe going a bit early calling 2nd-3rd year players busts.

 

[Golumless]

Parish broke out in year 6
Petracca year 5
Steele went from 22 disposals to 29 in year 7
Zorko, Kelly, Menegola, Barlow where how old?

Maybe going a bit early calling 2nd-3rd year players busts.

Parish, Petracca, Steele and Zorko weren't exactly spuds who magically came good players at that point in time.

Not only that, but every draftee has the potential to bust. Just a risk we need to deal with.

 

[UcantCme]

View attachment 1235010

Sounds like the Adelaide offer is conservative ....and maybe no games guarantee ?
Any mention of Adelaide & Stephens, seems to have us as a tag on option .....maybe because any Sth Aust player is automatically linked to coming home ......real or not

Games shoukd never be guaranteed

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