Analysis 2021 draft thread

[pulpdriver]

Same as this year.

I don't remember the early ratings of the draft but even so that bodes well considering how many more KPs there are next year than this.

 

[Dalions]

I don't remember the early ratings of the draft but even so that bodes well considering how many more KPs there are next year than this.

I don’t really see how we can trade our first next year into 2023 and still have enough points for Ashcroft, to be able to then trade back into 2022 for a highly rated tall without trading someone out next year to get the points required.
Unless if we are prepared to take a hit on the first round points the year after.

 

[briztoon]

Jam-packed full of talls I see.

Barely looked outside of Victoria.

 

[pulpdriver]

I don’t really see how we can trade our first next year into 2023 and still have enough points for Ashcroft, to be able to then trade back into 2022 for a highly rated tall without trading someone out next year to get the points required.
Unless if we are prepared to take a hit on the first round points the year after.

Assuming we win the flag we'd need roughly 700 points after our first three picks value are taken into account. Basically needing to trade in pick 28. Even if Ashcroft does manage to go no 1, which I kinda hope he doesn't, we should able to find those points with trading our first into 2023.

 

[briztoon]

Here’s an early look at next year’s draft crop from the draft board, from RMC’s PMBangers.


Early disclaimer, this is just my top 22 for next years crop early on, so some positions are iffy at best!

FB: Sam Gilbey (Claremont/ WA), Jedd Busslinger (East Perth/ WA), Jonti Schuback (Gippsland Power/ VIC C)

Gilbey is a speedy rebounding defender out of Claremont, with a piercing left foot out of defence, his attacking flair from the back half puts him in a position to transition into a Wing long term, standing at 185 cm, he's a nice height to play on a range of opponents, but his style forces them to defend him moreso than him doing the defending. Busslinger is a classic intercepting tall defender, not too dissimilar to Rhett Bazzo from this year, but I'd argue more damaging with his disposal and more willing to push up the ground, the 195 cm East Perth product will have his work cut out for him at the champs next season with the strength of the tall forwards. Jonti, otherwise known as 'The Jont', is another smooth mover like Gilbey, but is arguably better on the wings or in the thick of things as a rover, also possessing a damaging boot and speed.

HB: Kobe Ryan (West Adelaide/ SA), Harry Barnett (West Adelaide/ SA), Jed Hagan (East Fremantle/ WA)

Ryan is 100% better as a midfielder, but due to not many others in the side being able to play multiple positions (or rather, not showing that versatility) he's forced onto the half back line, where his class and poise under pressure are still valuable weapons when forced back here that he utilises to full effect. There's a bit of the Pendlebury's to Ryan, with his movement smooth but looking more so due to read of the game than athleticism. Barnett is 202cm and has played mainly ruck and forward, but at his height he's got sublime skills and athleticism that may see him turn into a successful Key Defender. Regardless, his ability to get around the ground and impact in all phases of the game is invaluable for a big man. Hagan is very much a 'performance' selection here, having made the WA U19s team and holding his own it's hard to deny that he's got more exposure than most, however I expect he may drop quickly next year =(

C: Elijah Tstatas (Oakleigh Chargers/ VIC M), George Wardlaw (Oakleigh Chargers/ VIC M), Oliver Hollands (Murray Bushrangers/ VIC C)

Arguably 3 of the best 4 mids heading into next year, all three of these guys have shown their capabilities as inside and outside players with genuine game sense. Elijah is an athletic beast with his acceleration around stoppages a massive weapon of his, paired with his damaging kick he looms as a genuine Pick 1 candidate early. Wardlaw is also in that same calibre of player, but a much stronger contested player with a real strength of his being his repeat efforts, inside consistency and the ability to stand up in tackles, and that's no joke, the RookieMe Central team were discussing last night and concluded we'd never seen Wardlaw brought to ground before disposing of the ball. Hollands is the brother of the SUNS' Elijah, with athleticism and class being key features of his game.

HF: Jack O'Sullivan (Oakleigh Chargers/ VIC C), Will Elliott (Oakleigh Chargers/ VIC M), Harry Sheezel (Sandringham Dragons/ VIC M)

O'Sullivan is exactly the type of small player that I love, so early disclaimer that I may be overrating him all of 2022, but as a forward he's a pressure machine that knows how to use it going forward as well, there's not many tackles he goes for that he doesn't lay and when rotated through the midfield he's a contested ball magnet as well. Elliott is a super athletic tall, which is looking to be a theme next year, who can play ruck but looks much more at home as a forward, where he can impact well at ground level and aerially for his height. Sheezel is similar to Rachele from this years draft, but slightly taller and I think with a little stronger workrate, but a similar flair in the forward 50 and knack for doing miraculous things

FF: Elijah Hewett (Swan Districts/ WA), Harry Lemmey (West Adelaide/ SA), Mattaes Phillipou (WWT Eagles/ SA)

The premiere tall heading into next season, Lemmey is a lead up specialist with his arm span and ability to mark in front at full speed allowing him to beat most opponents with ease when given the space to lead into, with his follow up shot at goal super impressive for a junior, already having a well defined routine. Phillipou is a super athletic medium forward that runs through the midfield well, it's very much a speculative pick having him this high early on, but I think he's got a lot of similar traits to a guy like Calen Poulter. Hewett has done the majority of his damage as a big bodied inside ball winner for WA, but at club and PSA level has had some impressive stints up forward, and he still manages to hit the scoreboard when playing through the guts.

R: Jackson Broadbent (Peel Thunder/ WA), Will Ashcroft (Sandringham Dragons/ VIC M), Jhye Clark (Geelong Falcons/ VIC C)

Broadbent is undoubtedly a big prospect, and whilst he may not have the athleticism of other ruck options next year he already looks like a guy that could be considered a safe bet to make it as a number 1 ruck at the next level, early on he reminds me a bit of Jarrod Witts

28

Jarrod Witts

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.8

4star

CL

3.3

5star

HO

31.8

5star

D

10.8

3star

K

5.9

2star

HB

4.9

3star

CL

3.4

4star

HO

29.5

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

8.0

5star

, but I feel Broadbent is more mobile. Ashcroft will be spoken about plenty as a top end father-son, but he does pretty much everything as a midfielder really well and frequently hits the scoreboard. Clark is a hard at it mid that is surprisingly clean with his disposal, even when being tackled or directly pressured he manages to hit targets by hand or foot

IN/C: Noah Long (Bendigo Pioneers/ VIC C), Kane Bevan (West Perth/ WA), Adam D'Aloia (WWT Eagles/ SA), Matthew Jeffersen (Oakleigh Chargers/ VIC M)

Long is a very similar player to Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

, just high workrate, ferocious and doesn't let his size stop him from having a crack and really troubling opposition players through the midfield. Bevan is a versatile prospect, and at 192 cm he could very well grow to KPP height but keep his strengths as a midfielder, especially his contested ball winning. D'Aloia has impressed everyone that's watched him, even getting a BOG medal in one of the SA U19's games, as well as the SANFL U18s Grand Final, a hard at it and hard working midfielder. Jeffersen is an exciting tall utility, with hisa best performances coming as a forward where his leading patterns and accuracy will impress many

 

[Dalions]

Assuming we win the flag we'd need roughly 700 points after our first three picks value are taken into account. Basically needing to trade in pick 28. Even if Ashcroft does manage to go no 1, which I kinda hope he doesn't, we should able to find those points with trading our first into 2023.

That’s 700 points including our first pick being pick 18 yeah?
Which means that if we trade that first pick into 2023 it means we need to find the value of that pick as well.

 

[pulpdriver]

That’s 700 points including our first pick being pick 18 yeah?
Which means that if we trade that first pick into 2023 it means we need to find the value of that pick as well.

Assuming we're premiers and Ashcroft goes pick 1, yeah. If list spots open up as predicted that will be easy. Would still require some compromise for future drafts but if we're premiers and Ashcroft is pick 1 who gives a ****?

 

[MacMum]

Just make sure there are some Ballarat boys in there......have to keep up tradition.

 

[pulpdriver]

You got any of those Lohmann highlights videos yet?

 

[mattsmob]

That’s 700 points including our first pick being pick 18 yeah?
Which means that if we trade that first pick into 2023 it means we need to find the value of that pick as well.

Yeah I think we may struggle to get up high enough to get one of the real good KPP. As long as we have enough points to match bids in the first round I don't think we should be worried about second round picks going into deficit. I think the biggest question for next season will be where will Fletcher end up? Ashcroft looks like a gun already, Fletcher looks like he's got all the tools to be a really big riser next season.

 

[mattsmob]

You got any of those Lohmann highlights videos yet?

I'm just going to assume we're getting Isaac Heeney

 

[briztoon]

Assuming we're premiers and Ashcroft goes pick 1, yeah. If list spots open up as predicted that will be easy. Would still require some compromise for future drafts but if we're premiers and Ashcroft is pick 1 who gives a fu**?

If we win the whole shebang next year, our current picks/points would be worth:
Pick 18: 985
Pick 35: 522
Pick 54: 220
Pick 72: 19

We need 2400 points to match a bid at pick 1.

 

[pulpdriver]

If we win the whole shebang next year, our current picks/points would be worth:
Pick 18: 985
Pick 35: 522
Pick 54: 220
Pick 72: 19

We need 2400 points to match a bid at pick 1.

Which is like 700 points. Didn't I post that?

 

[Mighty Lions]

If we win the whole shebang next year, our current picks/points would be worth:
Pick 18: 985
Pick 35: 522
Pick 54: 220
Pick 72: 19

We need 2400 points to match a bid at pick 1.

That is exactly why the club was not interested in trading any 2022 draft picks we have in this draft just gone.

 

[briztoon]

Which is like 700 points. Didn't I post that?

If we trade our first in to 2023, we need to find about 1600 points.

No one is giving us a future first round pick plus enough later picks that equate to 1600 points.

 

[pulpdriver]

If we trade our first in to 2023, we need to find about 1600 points.

No one is giving us a future first round pick plus enough later picks that equate to 1600 points.

Good point. I was wrong. Hmm that really makes life difficult if he does go pick 1.

On a side note I have heard rumours about Will being a rapist that burns crosses on his neighbour's lawns.

 

[M Malice]

2022 AFL draft >

Selection 1- Will Ashcroft.
Selection 2- Jaspa Fletcher.

Not to mention Riley McMillian.

 

[pulpdriver]

2022 AFL draft >

Selection 1- Will Ashcroft.
Selection 2- Jaspa Fletcher.

Not to mention Riley McMillian.

We're honestly laughing. Wonder if we can turn out picks into a chance for a 22 KP though?

 

[M Malice]

We're honestly laughing. Wonder if we can turn out picks into a chance for a 22 KP though?

IMO we have almost no chance of grabbing a highly rated tall next year with the points that will be needed for Ashcroft and co.... we'll have to wait for 2023 for a tall/s.

Unless we can trade in another clubs 2022 1st rounder and they win the spoon.

 

[briztoon]

I expect we’re going to spend most of next season watching our academy, and assessing the KPP stocks that might end up as rookies.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Good point. I was wrong. Hmm that really makes life difficult if he does go pick 1.

On a side note I have heard rumours about Will being a rapist that burns crosses on his neighbour's lawns.

I heard he's a Covid-denier who kicks puppies in his spare time

 

[pulpdriver]

IMO we have almost no chance of grabbing a highly rated tall next year with the points that will be needed for Ashcroft and co.... we'll have to wait for 2023 for a tall/s.

Unless we can trade in another clubs 2022 1st rounder and they win the spoon.

I figured we'd be able to trade into into but looking into the actual points value it's just not on unless he slides. Matching a pick one bid would be a massive task,

 

[Dalions]

If we trade our first in to 2023, we need to find about 1600 points.

No one is giving us a future first round pick plus enough later picks that equate to 1600 points.

And that was my point.

 

[mattsmob]

Others will have a better idea than me but from what I've seen at this stage there could be 3-5 kids from the academy a chance to be drafted this year.

 

[M Malice]

I heard he's a Covid-denier who kicks puppies in his spare time

I also heard that he crossed state lines.