Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Section 5]

Not sure how “ITK” Fox Footy is but FWIW here’s their attempt.

AFL phantom draft: Inside word on the first round and who will be taken in the top 20

Updated AFL phantom draft: Gun mid slides out of top 10 as Tigers to shake things up

www.foxsports.com.au

Comparing the first 20 picks they picked 12 in the same order & club as Cal Twomey:-
Pick 1 through to pick 7
Pick 12 Erasmus
Pick 14 Sinn,
Pick 16 Wilmot (Lions)
Pick 18 Brown
Pick 19 Howes

 

[blueiris]

Comparing the first 20 picks they picked 12 in the same order & club as Cal Twomey:-
Pick 1 through to pick 7
Pick 12 Erasmus
Pick 14 Sinn,
Pick 16 Wilmot (Lions)
Pick 18 Brown
Pick 19 Howes

Hun has BFONE at 17 if available do we look at 16

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Comparing the first 20 picks they picked 12 in the same order & club as Cal Twomey:-
Pick 1 through to pick 7
Pick 12 Erasmus
Pick 14 Sinn,
Pick 16 Wilmot (Lions)
Pick 18 Brown
Pick 19 Howes

For what it's worth, every Sydney fan I've seen reacting to Twomey's phantom is very unimpressed with the selection and they want a midfielder instead. Maybe the club don't agree with them, but you'd think the fans would know their needs fairly well.

 

[T Rick]

There is prob a reduced flight risk overall with us being in the VFL....least someone who is from interstate (vic at least) and is developing in the 2's will have an opportunity to see their friends and families....every little bit helps I guess

Good point

 

[jackess]

Seems the top 14 are a fair bit better than the rest. Are we just unlucky or are our recruiters a bit average?

Haven’t really had a great draft haul since 2016

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Seems the top 14 are a fair bit better than the rest.

On which metric?

 

[jackess]

On which metric?

They all just seem better all round draft prospects. After 14 Then we’re looking at small forwards, backs, average athletically KPPs, outside mids who are that skilled or quick. They all seem to carry a lot of risk and not have the ability you’d hope to be drafting with a first rounder

 

[RoyBoy17]

I can see Melbourne nabbing the Giants pick and taking Wilmot ahead of us. Would be happy with any combo of Wilmot, chesser, Brown, goater. Don’t like the look of JVR. Kicking style a little awkward and not the most agile

 

[The Flying Belgian]

They all just seem better all round draft prospects. After 14 Then we’re looking at small forwards, backs, average athletically KPPs, outside mids who are that skilled or quick. They all seem to carry a lot of risk and not have the ability you’d hope to be drafting with a first rounder

Is that different to any other year?

 

[jackess]

Is that different to any other year?

Yes the level of depth is different most years although I'd say the last few years seem to be pretty weak drafts

 

[M Malice]

There will be very good long term players taken after the first round and there will be ordinary players/complete busts taken in the first round and vice versa... we place our trust in Conole, Ambrogio and co.

Realistic best case scenario for me is 16- Josh Sinn/Josh Goater, 20- Darcy Wilmot/Campbell Chesser and 41- Sam Banks/Leek Alleer.

 

[briztoon]

Seems the top 14 are a fair bit better than the rest. Are we just unlucky or are our recruiters a bit average?

Haven’t really had a great draft haul since 2016

Who’s left from our 2016 draft? I believe you mean the 2017 draft.

Recruiters do not have control over where the picks land, or the perceived talent tiers. They don’t even have control over who is picked before them.

Personally, a JVR and Wilmot draft is very vanilla draft. I understand why the club would go that way, even though I would prefer more exciting players.

There is some good talent in the 15 to 20 range.

 

[Nunez]

Yes the level of depth is different most years although I'd say the last few years seem to be pretty weak drafts

A huge pool of talent the past two years have been effected by Covid. I think we'll be talking up a number of talents who 'slipped' more than we usually do due to the pandemic.

 

[briztoon]

There will be very good long term players taken after the first round and there will be ordinary players/complete busts taken in the first round and vice versa... we place our trust in Conole, Ambrogio and co.

Realistic best case scenario for me is 16- Josh Sinn/Josh Goater, 20- Darcy Wilmot/Campbell Chesser and 41- Sam Banks/Leek Alleer.

I’m pretty confident both will be gone before our third pick.

 

[SizeMatters]

Seems the top 14 are a fair bit better than the rest. Are we just unlucky or are our recruiters a bit average?

Haven’t really had a great draft haul since 2016

We've picked up Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Answerth, Robertson, Coleman, and Prior since 2016 AFL draft. Best 22 or borderline. Not bad considering the picks we've had. Still think we could do with a big bodied ball winning midfielder though... a few are floating around the league so they aren't exactly rare types. Doubt we'd get one in this draft unless we trade up.

 

[jackess]

Who’s left from our 2016 draft? I believe you mean the 2017 draft.

Recruiters do not have control over where the picks land, or the perceived talent tiers. They don’t even have control over who is picked before them.

Personally, a JVR and Wilmot draft is very vanilla draft. I understand why the club would go that way, even though I would prefer more exciting players.

There is some good talent in the 15 to 20 range.

Yeah the Bailey/Starcevich draft was a pass mark. The Clug I'd give us an A despite Witherden and Cox being busts. Since then we haven't really improved the list through the draft as much as you need to

They don't but they do influence our trading. Trading is now part of the draft process. Like how we gave up heaps for Dev. It's not as simple as he was pick 22 he cost us more than that. And our pick 18 this year will have cost more.

Unfortunately at our picks it seems we have the choice of the vanilla picks for very risky ones due to the lack of games

 

[jackess]

A huge pool of talent the past two years have been effected by Covid. I think we'll be talking up a number of talents who 'slipped' more than we usually do due to the pandemic.

Yeah and there will be more high draft pick busts than usual and given we have more higher picks, this year, we'll more than likely fall in this category.

Geelong might be the ones to benefit from this more

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Yes the level of depth is different most years although I'd say the last few years seem to be pretty weak drafts

So you're basing your view of this year off a few paragraphs of text?

 

[blueiris]

Seems the top 14 are a fair bit better than the rest. Are we just unlucky or are our recruiters a bit average?

Haven’t really had a great draft haul since 2016

To be fair we have traded away 2 years of first round picks

 

[jackess]

So you're basing your view of this year off a few paragraphs of text?

Yep. What do you base your opinions on the draft on?

 

[briztoon]

Yeah the Bailey/Starcevich draft was a pass mark. The Clug I'd give us an A despite Witherden and Cox being busts. Since then we haven't really improved the list through the draft as much as you need to

They don't but they do influence our trading. Trading is now part of the draft process. Like how we gave up heaps for Dev. It's not as simple as he was pick 22 he cost us more than that. And our pick 18 this year will have cost more.

Unfortunately at our picks it seems we have the choice of the vanilla picks for very risky ones due to the lack of games

There really wasn’t much depth to the 2018 draft beyond the top 17 or 18 picks.

2019 draft would have been good to hold our first round pick, as we could have got Robertson and Rivers early, matched Coleman and picked up Prior late. 2019 was always thought of as a deep draft in to the second round.

2020 was thought to be a shallow draft based on their U16 Championships, while 2021 was thought to be a deep draft based their U16 Championships.

I guess the lesson for me is, if it’s considered a deeper draft, don’t trade out your early picks until it’s your turn to pick.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Yep. What do you base your opinions on the draft on?

I wait and see 3-4 years down the track what the players are like.

 

[jackess]

I wait and see 3-4 years down the track what the players are like.

Do you wait until the third or fourth quarter of the game to start forming an opinion of how it's going?

I can't switch my mind off to blissful ignorance that easy. Not sure what you're even doing in this thread. Might want to uncover the 2017 draft thread

 

[Section 5]

Hun has BFONE at 17 if available do we look at 16

Not sure who BFONE is.
Happy to accept whoever clubs decide on at 14 (16) & 18 (20)
My opinion which does not count for much is: Goater before Wilmot but both if available at our selection

 

[blueiris]

Not sure who BFONE is.
Happy to accept whoever clubs decide on at 14 (16) & 18 (20)
My opinion which does not count for much is: Goater before Wilmot but both if available at our selection

Neil Erasmus or Big Footy Own Neil Erasmus