Analysis 2021 draft thread

[blueiris]

We’re the only team that’s locked into our picks according to Twomey with a few changes from last night

 

[mattsmob]

We’re the only team that’s locked into our picks according to Twomey with a few changes from last night

Where's this from?

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I personally like the idea of Wilmot, I get Vlaustin type vibes from him, for what ever reason.

Our defense doesn’t seem balanced to me at the moment, potentially adding him with Starce in the future gives us options to cover Rozzee/Butters, Stringer/Tippa, Fritsch/Pickett, De-goey/Elliot type duos, while being able to add some offensive drive when not having the hard match ups.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

We’re the only team that’s locked into our picks according to Twomey with a few changes from last night

Or, he hasn't heard aything that give him cause to assign us anyone else and is sticking with what he's gone with originally.

 

[jackess]

Or, he hasn't heard aything that give him cause to assign us anyone else and is sticking with what he's gone with originally.

I get the feeling we're not big leakers

Or just not interested in having things play out through the media

 

[JasRulz63]

Apologies if this has been mentioned earlier (81 pages is a LOT to scroll through)... but I simply cannot fathom why if you had the early picks you wouldn't just pick Daicos and Darcy, and bend the Dogs and Collingwood over as best you can. I get why North might take Horne-Francis at #1 so the young man gets the $10k, but surely if you're the Giants, this is a great chance to force not 1 club but 2 to burn as many draft picks as possible.

I am by no means a draft nuffy so maybe someone who is more knowledgeable can explain this one to me?

It's an interesting one. From memory, in 2019 Fremantle not bidding on Tom Green resulted in Carlton bidding on their own NGA (Henry) the very next pick (before they then bid on Green), which left Freo with a deficit they would've been reduced/not had if they had just bid on Green. The end result was that their 2020 pick ended up sliding back from pick 7 to pick 10.

 

[briztoon]

Apologies if this has been mentioned earlier (81 pages is a LOT to scroll through)... but I simply cannot fathom why if you had the early picks you wouldn't just pick Daicos and Darcy, and bend the Dogs and Collingwood over as best you can. I get why North might take Horne-Francis at #1 so the young man gets the $10k, but surely if you're the Giants, this is a great chance to force not 1 club but 2 to burn as many draft picks as possible.

I am by no means a draft nuffy so maybe someone who is more knowledgeable can explain this one to me?

1. Because burning those late picks won’t have much impact on GWS. They have their own academy kid likely to be bid on the second round, then they are done with the draft.

Bulldogs will trade pick 23, likely to Geelong for two early 30’s picks as well.

2. There’s been a lot of talk from the Northern academy recruiters that they don’t make opposition clubs burn picks, just to improve draft their own hands.

Plus with the nga academies losing access to players inside the top 40 from next year, it’s likely the Northern academies will have more players bid on in the future, than Vic clubs, etc.

 

[blueiris]

Where's this from?

The AFL website

 

[briztoon]

We’re the only team that’s locked into our picks according to Twomey with a few changes from last night

I’d say the first four picks are pretty locked in.

Twomey reckons the top 6 picks are locked in.

 

[SizeMatters]

I did say possibly and any replacement does not necessarily have to have the same qualities as someone they replace.
Alex Rance goes down and is replaced. Richmond still go on to win the premiership
I also mentioned other roles once he settles into an AFL system
I don't think he gets early games unless he goes to a bottom 6 side
A bit of a stretch to say he got caught 3 times in his highlight video

unsure where the dislike is. Wilmot looks like a jet from that highlights package. Caught 3 times? gee posters are a bit harsh here twice he was mopping up others poor work surrounded by players and the third time he still got a possession off cleanly enough. Sure, his decision making needs a bit of work but I love that he plays on quickly, backs himself - always searching and looking for an option, amazing ability to read the ball in the air and use his body to nullify his opponent to get an intercept possession... looks to have some nice pace too. I'd happily use pick 16 on him and he looks like he could be a 200 gamer.

 

[mattsmob]

The AFL website

Sorry but if you're talking about the late mail article then he didn't even mention Brisbane once, he just selected the same two he's stuck with the whole time.
He did mention both Chesser and Howes could be smokies to go before our pick meaning someone drops.

 

[JasRulz63]

I was look at this the other night and was curious how Cal Twomey has done predicting our picks in the teens/early twenties since 2016.

2016
17 - Alex Witherden

23

Alex Witherden

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

15.2

5star

HB

5.5

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.8

4star

MG

386.5

5star

D

13.0

3star

K

10.0

4star

HB

3.0

2star

M

7.0

5star

T

0.0

1star

MG

201.0

3star

D

24.0

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

8.6

5star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.2

4star

MG

380.2

5star

(had J Berry at 14)
22 - Jordan Ridley

14

Jordan Ridley

Age

26

Ht

195cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

244.8

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

11.9

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

6.7

5star

T

1.7

3star

MG

265.4

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

MG

208.2

4star

(was taken the pick before in the real thing, had Witherden at 17)
23 - Jack Graham

34

Jack Graham

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

6.3

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

D

14.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

7.0

5star

CL

3.2

5star

(had Cedric Cox

20

Cedric Cox

Age

27

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.8

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.2

2star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.2

3star

at 28)

2017
15 - Lachie Fogarty (had Bailey at 18)
18 - Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

25

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

(didn't have Starcevich in top 30)

2018
21 - Ely Smith (spot on)

2019
23 - Trent Rivers

24

Trent Rivers

Age

23

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

3star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.7

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

(had Robertson at 15)

Thought he'd done a pretty decent job considering how hard it is to predict picks in the teens.

 

[Simba Moyo]

The upside for Wilmot is pretty clear not just for his age but also his leadership. As someone that would literally have been ineligible for this draft if born a few hours later, the fact he is so comfortable being one of the most vocal is obviously a big tick in the in the attitude column that we rate very highly

 

[JasRulz63]

They funniest thing about Daicos going at 4 is that Collingwood could've had Callaghan and Daicos from this draft (even if they would've had to provide some incentive for North not to bid).

 

[briztoon]

unsure where the dislike is. Wilmot looks like a jet from that highlights package. Caught 3 times? gee posters are a bit harsh here twice he was mopping up others poor work surrounded by players and the third time he still got a possession off cleanly enough. Sure, his decision making needs a bit of work but I love that he plays on quickly, backs himself - always searching and looking for an option, amazing ability to read the ball in the air and use his body to nullify his opponent to get an intercept possession... looks to have some nice pace too. I'd happily use pick 16 on him and he looks like he could be a 200 gamer.

For me, it’s more about the combination of Wilmot and JVR.

Especially when this years draft looks deep on second tier talent, and there’s the chance we could add a potential difference maker, who in my opinion projects as a midfielder long term, at our second pick, if Goater or Chesser are still on board.

I’d be happy with one of Wilmot or JVR and one of Goater or Chesser.

For me JVR is a long term (or could be short term) Darcy Gardiner replacement. I’ve been saying for a couple of years that I believe Gardiner’s body is going to let him down soon, with the amount of shoulder surgeries he’s had in the last 3 years.

 

[briztoon]

We’re getting a wingman in Fletcher in next years draft We also drafted Sharp last year McCluggage hopefully gets better as an inside midfielder with Bailey

I don’t necessarily believe Fletcher will be a wing at AFL level.

Far more likely to play as a flanker, and if he develops his body over time, might be able to play through the midfield.

I believe Zac Taylor in this years draft would be a fair, but loose comparison. Similar size, skills, speed, plays like, etc.

 

[mattsmob]

I don’t necessarily believe Fletcher will be a wing at AFL level.

Far more likely to play as a flanker, and if he develops his body over time, might be able to play through the midfield.

I believe Zac Taylor in this years draft would be a fair, but loose comparison. Similar size, skills, speed, plays like, etc.

Zac Taylor is a fair bit smaller isn't he? Fletcher looked quite big in the Qld/Tas game.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I get the feeling we're not big leakers

Or just not interested in having things play out through the media

Same. Noble certainly righted the ship in terms of leaks coming out of the club and it seems to have continued. Neither Conole or Ambrogio give the impression as giving much away, even privately.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Same. Noble certainly righted the ship in terms of leaks coming out of the club and it seems to have continued. Neither Conole or Ambrogio give the impression as giving much away, even privately.

Ship + leak =

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

There are 6 Josh's in Cal Twomey's top 30. We haven't had a good record with Josh's. Just saying.

 

[damo72]

There are 6 Josh's in Cal Twomey's top 30. We haven't had a good record with Josh's. Just saying.

josh drumond

 

[NotQuiteJezza]

There are 6 Josh's in Cal Twomey's top 30. We haven't had a good record with Josh's. Just saying.

Josh Drummond was a ripper.

 

[M Malice]

I don’t necessarily believe Fletcher will be a wing at AFL level.

Far more likely to play as a flanker, and if he develops his body over time, might be able to play through the midfield.

I believe Zac Taylor in this years draft would be a fair, but loose comparison. Similar size, skills, speed, plays like, etc.

Excuse my ignorance but what is the difference between a winger and a flanker?

Oh and by the way briz Happy draft day to you.

 

[Mighty Lions]

1. Because burning those late picks won’t have much impact on GWS. They have their own academy kid likely to be bid on the second round, then they are done with the draft.

Bulldogs will trade pick 23, likely to Geelong for two early 30’s picks as well.

2. There’s been a lot of talk from the Northern academy recruiters that they don’t make opposition clubs burn picks, just to improve draft their own hands.

Plus with the nga academies losing access to players inside the top 40 from next year, it’s likely the Northern academies will have more players bid on in the future, than Vic clubs, etc.

Not true, where do you get that "lot of talk" from? Especially when it comes to clubs forcing the same on to us in the past. There is a distinct dislike for clubs that have done likewise to us.

 

[jjami15]

Excuse my ignorance but what is the difference between a winger and a flanker?

Oh and by the way briz Happy draft day to you.

The modern day winger IMO is one of the most undervalued positions in today’s game. They need to be able run all day and be able to ‘roll back’ to assist defensively in the back 50 for when they ball is being transitioned easily by the opposing team. At stoppages they also play a vital
Ingredient in having to cover the ‘outlet’ and again play a defensive role. This is only being defensive. On the offensive side of the ball they have to be able to ‘spread’ the field and provide as a link from the back half to the front half. If you have a really good winger than they are able to do both sides. Offensive wingers who are able to ‘cut’ through or progress the ball faster than the opposition teams defensive set ups are pretty to the eye but in today’s modern footy the coaches want the defensive side. Lastly, this is where Hugh has stood out, their kick into the offensive 50 is vital as well in being able to set up scoring shots.

HBF play ‘behind the ball’. There are two types, defensive HBF (Vlaustin) and Offensive (Saad). They have to be able to nullify their opponent first and then start attacking drives from the backhalf. Teams like the Lions want slow and assured movement of the ball and this is done via foot (Rich). The sexy side is the run and carry types but Saad doesn’t want to really play defensive but their primary role is to be able to shut down their opposition first and then start attacking drives.