Analysis 2021 trade thread

[Sanchez365]

The issue with Neale always seemed that a deal going down to the wire with Freo would mean we have no ability to then turn that capital into something else. With our current list squeeze we can't really turn Neale into multiple picks and being in our window don't want to turn him into a 18 year old.

I wouldnt be surprised if we had created a list of targets and had started calling around the afl one after the other to see how we could replace him.

There will be alot more smoke if we get linked so someone good a bit more seriously.

 

[mpal6]

No basis but for some reason I was thinking along these lines with Neale. Is it a smokescreen to make Fremantle cough up more as they know he wants to go home but also wants to stay at the lions. If he is wanting home, and being a new parent next year that desire will grow, and if it’s this year or next this year is more beneficial to the club one would think. But it’s not something our current administration is known for they usually seem like pretty straight shooters and the team is better with Neale in it so hopefully it is all straight ahead go and Lachie lines up for us next year.

I feel its the other way around where the news got leaked in WA both to force the conversation as well as test how strong is Neale's resolve to get back.

May be no one was prepared for the circus that followed and all involved may have panicked and backed off.

 

[BangyBangy]

Yeah and grizzly Adam’s had a beard

Anyone? Or am I just derailing the thread?

 

[BangyBangy]

No basis but for some reason I was thinking along these lines with Neale. Is it a smokescreen to make Fremantle cough up more as they know he wants to go home but also wants to stay at the lions. If he is wanting home, and being a new parent next year that desire will grow, and if it’s this year or next this year is more beneficial to the club one would think. But it’s not something our current administration is known for they usually seem like pretty straight shooters and the team is better with Neale in it so hopefully it is all straight ahead go and Lachie lines up for us next year.

Won't be a smokescreen to make Freo cough up more. If a trade happens with two years to run on a contract it will be on terms that both parties are happy with.

More than anything it was probably to stop the media pile on that was pretty full on towards Lachie & Jules. Nothing is really gained by all that stuff in the media so far out from trade week.

 

[Section 5]

Neale is not going anywhere this year other than to get a Covid shot or two
No point in announcing to the AFL world you are staying and then changing your mind
He was given an opportunity to state his intentions so both clubs had time to find solutions to such a request
He has done so and will be a Lion next year
However 2023 is a different matter depending how covid affects next season
Hopefully interstate travel is back to sort of normal by Feb 2022

 

[Monkey Daniel]

Toe and Achilles by the looks. Speedy defender when drafted.

Three years on, Swans' forgotten first-round pick will debut

Speedy defender Matthew Ling will play his first AFL game on Saturday, having overcome a torrid run of injuries

www.afl.com.au

Lock down small defender and did an ankle earlier this year too
Very unlucky run of injuries, together with Covid, lockdowns interfering with Reserves matches, he never got a good go of it. After getting over his foot/toe injury he was heading in the right direction, bent down at training to pick up a ball and did his Achilles.

 

[briztoon]

No basis but for some reason I was thinking along these lines with Neale. Is it a smokescreen to make Fremantle cough up more as they know he wants to go home but also wants to stay at the lions. If he is wanting home, and being a new parent next year that desire will grow, and if it’s this year or next this year is more beneficial to the club one would think. But it’s not something our current administration is known for they usually seem like pretty straight shooters and the team is better with Neale in it so hopefully it is all straight ahead go and Lachie lines up for us next year.

Neale, or more to the point the trade cost of Neale, doesn’t fit with Fremantle’s current time line.

Fremantle aren’t trying to win now, they’re trying to win in the future, and they still need to build their forward line.

 

[Elixuh]

Unless they can trade in some forwards, Freo's current list build is not healthy...and who are they replacing Fyfe and Mundy with over the next few years?

They lose Cerra, great young player. They are about to lose Mundy, their best player this year. Fyfe is injury riddled and the wrong side of 30. Non-existent forward line. Because of the way they have built this list, at some stage they are going to have to trade in players. Freo is one of the only teams that I can't gauge their 'timeline'. briztoon what do you think their timeline is?

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Neale, or more to the point the trade cost of Neale, doesn’t fit with Fremantle’s current time line.

Fremantle aren’t trying to win now, they’re trying to win in the future, and they still need to build their forward line.

Not that I don't agree with you, but I would be careful believing that the position of Freo supporters re: Neale in any way matched the position of Freo as a club. I think they were much more keen (and much more willing to trade at least one top 10 pick) than was reported in the media.

 

[Nuggo]

From the outside Freo appeared to be shaking the tree fairly hard. Maybe they were just playing games.

 

[briztoon]

Lock down small defender and did an ankle earlier this year too
Very unlucky run of injuries, together with Covid, lockdowns interfering with Reserves matches, he never got a good go of it. After getting over his foot/toe injury he was heading in the right direction, bent down at training to pick up a ball and did his Achilles.

I might be misremembering, but I don’t recall Ling being a lockdown small defender in his draft year.

I thought he was very much a wing with a very, very low contested possession percentage.

 

[briztoon]

Unless they can trade in some forwards, Freo's current list build is not healthy...and who are they replacing Fyfe and Mundy with over the next few years?

They lose Cerra, great young player. They are about to lose Mundy, their best player this year. Fyfe is injury riddled and the wrong side of 30. Non-existent forward line. Because of the way they have built this list, at some stage they are going to have to trade in players. Freo is one of the only teams that I can't gauge their 'timeline'. briztoon what do you think their timeline is?

If Cerra had stayed, I believed they were two years away from genuinely pushing the top 8.

They looked to be potentially adding two KPF’s this year via the draft. Amiss with their first pick and they have a nga kpf who’s flown under the radar somewhat.

Cerra going might put them back a year.

 

[LionCub29]

If Cerra had stayed, I believed they were two years away from genuinely pushing the top 8.

They looked to be potentially adding two KPF’s this year via the draft. Amiss with their first pick and they have a nga kpf who’s flown under the radar somewhat.

Cerra going might put them back a year.

Cerra’s a promising player, but far from a finished product. There is currently a gulf in quality between Brayshaw and him. If I was Freo and there was no easy deal involving Neale or Angus, I’d draft the forwards, finish where they finish and go hard after one or both next year.

If Freo go to the draft, from a Lions perspective next year would be the time to trade Neale (when the Dockers would be closer to all in).

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not in love with the idea of a Neale, Lyons and Zorko-led midfield against Melb, Bulldogs or Swans going forward.

 

[brisbanelions]

Madden said “the passing of Stynes drew his attention to how big the AFL was, but it was watching former Essendon speedster Conor McKenna that really piqued his interest.’ always loved Conor for his speed and skill.

The Essendon games I watched I just love Conor’s foot skills and at 25 years, is right in the sweet spot to give us an attacking defender.May also inspire/influence Madden to take his game to the next level as it appears from above, Madden has a good amount of respect/looks up to Conor and this could be a great source of inspiration to Madden.

I would refer to some of our experts here but we would not have to trade for him, he would only take up a list spot.no drafts picks would be involved. There is an old saying never look a gift horse in the mouth. A great opportunity in my book to get a real talent at no cost to our draft hand. Brisbane YES YOU CAN. meets our needs to a tee.In my book he is a GUN!!!!

 

[T Rick]

This is probably the wrong thread but can someone explain why our salary cap is supposedly so tight - are we paying overs to a lot of players?

 

[M Malice]

Cerra’s a promising player, but far from a finished product. There is currently a gulf in quality between Brayshaw and him. If I was Freo and there was no easy deal involving Neale or Angus, I’d draft the forwards, finish where they finish and go hard after one or both next year.

If Freo go to the draft, from a Lions perspective next year would be the time to trade Neale (when the Dockers would be closer to all in).

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not in love with the idea of a Neale, Lyons and Zorko-led midfield against Melb, Bulldogs or Swans going forward.

We did ok against the Dogs midfield in the semi final..... with McStay/Hipwood out, replacement KPF Payne off early in the 2nd quarter and J.Berry off for all the 2nd half. We are a reasonable injury run away from a flag with our current list IMO, 9 times out of 10 the premiers end up being a team that has the vast majority of their best 22 available for the finals.

We have another 2 years in the flag window with Zorks/Rich in the side and then another couple of years after that with Lyons/Neale still in the side IMO.

 

[briztoon]

This is probably the wrong thread but can someone explain why our salary cap is supposedly so tight - are we paying overs to a lot of players?

First, the salary cap went down from $14.7m to $13.4m, and as far as I’m aware, we were one of the few teams that didn’t ask our players to take a pay cut.

Neale
Daniher
Cameron
Rayner
McCluggage
Hipwood
Lyons
Zorko
Andrews

Are all going to be on significant coin. Then we’re going to have a lot of players in the middle pay bracket.

And most of our rookies aren’t on true rookie contracts, they’ll all have some portion of their contracts under the tpp.

 

[T Rick]

First, the salary cap went down from $14.7m to $13.4m, and as far as I’m aware, we were one of the few teams that didn’t ask our players to take a pay cut.

Neale
Daniher
Cameron
Rayner
McCluggage
Hipwood
Lyons
Zorko
Andrews

Are all going to be on significant coin. Then we’re going to have a lot of players in the middle pay bracket.

And most of our rookies aren’t on true rookie contracts, they’ll all have some portion of their contracts under the tpp.

Thanks Briztoon - for clarification, where clubs asked players to take a pay cut was that a real cut or a re-jigging of contracts and a deferral of pay to later years?

 

[briztoon]

Thanks Briztoon - for clarification, where clubs asked players to take a pay cut was that a real cut or a re-jigging of contracts and a deferral of pay to later years?

It varied from club to club.

Players at multiple clubs set to agree to collective pay cuts

Players at as many as five clubs will agree to collective pay cuts.

www.sen.com.au

 

[briztoon]

Double the cost, half the pain: Eagles agree to bigger pay cut

West Coast players will take a bigger pay cut in 2021 to speed the club's return to normal salary cap levels

www.afl.com.au

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If Freo go to the draft, from a Lions perspective next year would be the time to trade Neale (when the Dockers would be closer to all in).

But our leverage would be lower since he'd only have one year left on his deal.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not in love with the idea of a Neale, Lyons and Zorko-led midfield against Melb, Bulldogs or Swans going forward.

Who says Zorko will continue to play midfield much going forward? The lack of Rayner meant he played more than he otherwise would have this year.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Neale, or more to the point the trade cost of Neale, doesn’t fit with Fremantle’s current time line.

Fremantle aren’t trying to win now, they’re trying to win in the future, and they still need to build their forward line.

If a player like Neale is available to your club, you make a fair effort to get them across the line. I see the “Fremantle timeline” argument as an a effort to devalue his trade cost.

Freo are definitely building a decent list, with their midfield as their strength IMO. However if you take out Mundy, Cerra and potentially Fyfe in a few years (wear and tear) it doesn’t project as a strength anymore. Darcy, Serong and Brayshaw is a great core, but every chance they’ll need to some mature help to keep momentum in their list.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Lightning quick? Pin point kicking? First round pick but career ruined by injuries so far and delisted now?

You sound like our kind of player - come on down for a rookie pick Matthew Ling.

I prefer McKenna if he's on the market. Give me the guy who's proven he can do it at the top level over someone who hasn't.

 

[briztoon]

If a player like Neale is available to your club, you make a fair effort to get them across the line. I see the “Fremantle timeline” argument as an a effort to devalue his trade cost.

Freo are definitely building a decent list, with their midfield as their strength IMO. However if you take out Mundy, Cerra and potentially Fyfe in a few years (wear and tear) it doesn’t project as a strength anymore. Darcy, Serong and Brayshaw is a great core, but every chance they’ll need to some mature help to keep momentum in their list.

In which time Fremantle target Neale when he’s out of contract next.

Neale might only have 3 years of top level play left in him. He’s copped it much more here, being the main man, from opposition midfields. This year’s injuries might be a one off, or they might be the beginning of the downward trajectory for Neale.

When you’re trading in a player, you’re looking at minimum expectations, not maximum expectations.

Fremantle don’t look to be in their window in the next 3 years. I wouldn’t be trading out a top 10 pick in for a short term player.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

In which time Fremantle target Neale when he’s out of contract next.

Neale might only have 3 years of top level play left in him. He’s copped it much more here, being the main man, from opposition midfields. This year’s injuries might be a one off, or they might be the beginning of the downward trajectory for Neale.

When you’re trading in a player, you’re looking at minimum expectations, not maximum expectations.

Fremantle don’t look to be in their window in the next 3 years. I wouldn’t be trading out a top 10 pick in for a short term player.

Things change, and the pull for Lachie is obviously now. Another year on, they’ve had their baby and hopefully settled in, borders open up and the Jules family can travel. The pull mightn't be there again, from Fremantle perspective.

The exact same could have been applied to us prior to trading in Lachie, wait a year for free agency (he’ll be cheaper). Our window won’t be opened for another 3 years, but here we are after 3 years of top4 finishes, largely in part to our strategy of just getting it done.

I’m all for holding Neale, and hope we don’t need to trade him. We’re not that far off considering