List Mgmt. 2022 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals: Kinnear & Dalrymple - we march to no drum but our own!

[Ticky009]

 

[Bandicoot]

There are some good options available that have significant upside. These are another two. Keeler is another. Then if one of the favourites was to slide.
I've seen Hotton linked to us but I can't see where he improves us or adds a lot longer term. Not that he's a bad player. Ditto with the Tassie lad. Good player but what does he add?
No doubt Kinnear and Simon will find a way to.surprise us.

If history tells us anything, our first pick will be none of the players we have surmised in this thread. Will most likely be be someone suggested to go in the late 20s early 30s.
We will all then go "what the f**k". That player will probably then go on to play 200+ games with us.

 

[Wolftone]

There is an article under retirement, để listing & trade, who has left your club. Then they only list for 10 clubs.

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[Wolftone]

Humphrey sliding to our pick...I can only imagine Swans have hired some of the lads out west and somehow blackmailed every recruiter south of the Murray.
He's top 10 for sure.

These are the rumours from PM Bangers from over on the draft board

• Obvious first four selections are Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel and Ashcroft, no need to address that
• Essendon's pick obviously shapes the rest of the next 10 picks, think they're leaning Humphrey atm
• Gold Coast deciding between Ginbey (leading), Clark and Humphrey
• Saints likely take whoever of Mackenzie or Phillipou are left
• Jacob Konstanty and Charlie Clarke both heavily linked to GWS, apparently Clarke has interest from Collingwood too so may pounce at 16
• GWS likely to trade out 19 on the second night, wait and see on the offers but from my bias POV we should be able to get a future first
• Elijah Hewett may slide into the 30's, 75% chance he doesn't go first round at the very least
• For NGA's; Cooper Vickery the most likely to go prior to 41 (apart from Mackenzie obviously) which would mean Hawks miss out, Munkara and the rest should get through

You forgot Keeler, he is an Nga Academy player linked to Crows but will go well before 41 so they have not nominated him

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[Bandicoot]

There is an article under retirement, để listing & trade, who has left your club. Then they only list for 10 clubs.

On JAT-L29 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I hate it every time I see an article in the Herald Sun which then only shows the Victorian clubs. Almost inclined to cancel my subscription.

 

[Caj]

If history tells us anything, our first pick will be none of the players we have surmised in this thread. Will most likely be be someone suggested to go in the late 20s early 30s.
We will all then go "what the f**k". That player will probably then go on to play 200+ games with us.

Like Matt Ling or Daniel O’Keefe?

 

[rustycrate]

Like Matt Ling or Daniel O’Keefe?

I think if you went back and looked at every club's draft history of first round picks, no club could hold their head up.
These are 17-18 year old kids playing mostly school and a bit of rep. No recruiter lays claims to be a working Nostradamus.

 

[SeanM]

For those interested in Hewett & Phillopou some interesting posts over on the rumour board

Rumour - 2022 Draft Rumours

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hypothetical-pick-trade-thread.1337423/ Consider posting your hypothetical Pick swaps, or opinions on what's fair, in the linked thread instead! That way, you can discuss in the proper space and this thread can remain more on topic rumour (n)...

www.bigfooty.com

I think when deciding who the club wants to draft. There will be a lot of stuff that we don't see.

Things like how likely a player is to settle into the club, how driven they are to improve, their mental strength and their competitiveness within games.

But if Phillipou is still there at our first pick. He seems like he is talented enough to take a risk on even if there are doubts about his personality.

 

[SeanM]

Looking at a few mock drafts. I think there is a chance that someone rated in the top 10 could unexpectedly slide to us. All it takes is 1 or 2 unexpected picks in the top 10.

For example if expected top 10 (excluding Ashcroft) is Cadman, Sheezel, Wadlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mckenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou and Busslinger. Then Carlton takes running mid Hollands at 11, West Coast take a local Hewett/Allen at 12 and Melbourne takes key forward Jefferson at 13. Then we have next pick.

But if someone unexpected gets taken top 10, a player could be available at pick 14 that we never imagined would be there.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Looking at a few mock drafts. I think there is a chance that someone rated in the top 10 could unexpectedly slide to us. All it takes is 1 or 2 unexpected picks in the top 10.

For example if expected top 10 (excluding Ashcroft) is Cadman, Sheezel, Wadlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mckenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou and Busslinger. Then Carlton takes running mid Hollands at 11, West Coast take a local Hewett/Allen at 12 and Melbourne takes key forward Jefferson at 13. Then we have next pick.

But if someone unexpected gets taken top 10, a player could be available at pick 14 that we never imagined would be there.

From what I've seen/heard the most likely to slide would be Phillipou, Hewett or Allan. All mids, albeit all a bit different. Rumour suggests of those we may have shown the greatest interest in Allan. He also seems to have the greatest predicted range.
Personally I still would like to see us take Hustwaite but Allan would in no way be a disappointment.

 

[Ticky009]

I think when deciding who the club wants to draft. There will be a lot of stuff that we don't see.

Things like how likely a player is to settle into the club, how driven they are to improve, their mental strength and their competitiveness within games.

But if Phillipou is still there at our first pick. He seems like he is talented enough to take a risk on even if there are doubts about his personality.

Everything I've read says he's 100% heading home first opportunity.

 

[Caj]

I think if you went back and looked at every club's draft history of first round picks, no club could hold their head up.
These are 17-18 year old kids playing mostly school and a bit of rep. No recruiter lays claims to be a working Nostradamus.

I know rusty, our recruiting has generally been excellent, but a couple of times when we've reached in the first round it generally hasn't come off.

Fingers crossed that Stephens and Sheldrick aren't in the same boat

 

[RUNVS]

I was thinking about a comment that Dalrymple made after last years draft in that he prefers one touch players. ie players that don't fumble, clean hands. They then have more time to do the damage to the opposition. He likes those players.
I know clean hands is not everything, and probably is more related to mids and smaller types, that is sought after by the recruiters...but just thinking about our picks (14,17,42) and who is likely.
A cursory look through the RookieMeCentral draft guide revealed these players with clean hands:
Top 30
Coby Burgeil-183cm Mid/Forward
Jhye Clark-181cm Inside Mid - Geelong
Jasper Fletcher-183 Balanced Mid - Brisbane
Reuben Ginbey-189 Inside Mid - Probably gone
Olli Hotton-182 Mid/Forward
Henry Hustwaite-195 Mid/Defender
Jacob Konstanty-177 Forward/Mid
Cameron McKenzie-188 Balanced Mid - Probably gone
Mattaes Phillipou-190 Mid/Forward - Gone
Mitch Szybkowski-186 Inside Mid
Elijah Tsatas-186 Balanced Mid - Gone
George Wardlaw-182 Inside Mid - Gone

The rest
Adam D'Aloia-186 Inside Mid (40-60)
Blake Drury-177 Small forward/Mid (40-60)
Steely Green-179 Inside Mid (40-60)
Noah Long 177 Inside Mid (40+)
Jayden Maygor-179 Mid/Forward (40+)
Jack O'Sullivan-177 Mid/Forward (Late)
Nick Sadler-180 Balanced Mid (35-50)

Well that filled in about 45 minutes in this void between now and the draft.

When does training start for the youngsters?

I will go on the record and say Hustwaite is who I am hoping we call with pick 15.

 

[Bloods86]

I was thinking about a comment that Dalrymple made after last years draft in that he prefers one touch players. ie players that don't fumble, clean hands. They then have more time to do the damage to the opposition. He likes those players.
I know clean hands is not everything, and probably is more related to mids and smaller types, that is sought after by the recruiters...but just thinking about our picks (14,17,42) and who is likely.
A cursory look through the RookieMeCentral draft guide revealed these players with clean hands:
Top 30
Coby Burgeil-183cm Mid/Forward
Jhye Clark-181cm Inside Mid - Geelong
Jasper Fletcher-183 Balanced Mid - Brisbane
Reuben Ginbey-189 Inside Mid - Probably gone
Olli Hotton-182 Mid/Forward
Henry Hustwaite-195 Mid/Defender
Jacob Konstanty-177 Forward/Mid
Cameron McKenzie-188 Balanced Mid - Probably gone
Mattaes Phillipou-190 Mid/Forward - Gone
Mitch Szybkowski-186 Inside Mid
Elijah Tsatas-186 Balanced Mid - Gone
George Wardlaw-182 Inside Mid - Gone

The rest
Adam D'Aloia-186 Inside Mid (40-60)
Blake Drury-177 Small forward/Mid (40-60)
Steely Green-179 Inside Mid (40-60)
Noah Long 177 Inside Mid (40+)
Jayden Maygor-179 Mid/Forward (40+)
Jack O'Sullivan-177 Mid/Forward (Late)
Nick Sadler-180 Balanced Mid (35-50)

Well that filled in about 45 minutes in this void between now and the draft.

When does training start for the youngsters?

I'd also be happy with Hustwaite. It would also shut me up about a KPD for the rest of the draft, as we'd at least have brought in Francis and a draftee who can play the position. Ideally we'd just draft a pure KPD (like Hayes), but I think it would allow the focus to be on bringing in a KPF and a ruck (Keeler, Barnett etc), or a swingman like Gruzewski.

I also wouldn't be upset with Ginbey, but probably gone as you say. Not sold on any of the other top 30 prospects you've mentioned as an inside mid. Hotton if we needed another mid/forward, but we definitely don't.

 

[RUNVS]

I'd also be happy with Hustwaite. It would also shut me up about a KPD for the rest of the draft, as we'd at least have brought in Francis and a draftee who can play the position. Ideally we'd just draft a pure KPD (like Hayes), but I think it would allow the focus to be on bringing in a KPF and a ruck (Keeler, Barnett etc), or a swingman like Gruzewski.

I also wouldn't be upset with Ginbey, but probably gone as you say. Not sold on any of the other top 30 prospects you've mentioned as an inside mid. Hotton if we needed another mid/forward, but we definitely don't.

I could see the argument about getting Jefferson if he is available but even then he doesn't fill a massive need as I am happy with the prospect of our forward line consisting of McDonald, McLean, Amartey, Heeney, Papley and Hayward in the long term. It isn't a forward line that has many holes in it, though arguments could be made that Jefferson would be better than one of Amartey or McLean. We don't really need to draft any forwards though.

To me though we desperate need some big bodied mids for those big games. We also need a KPD to take on the 200cm key forwards but I am not sure which is the bigger need right now.

 

[Bloods86]

Based on having 17, 20 and 41 (as per draft order with likely bids/matching), I'd be happy with any of these drafts:

Draft A

• Hewett/Ginbey (doubt they'll be available)
• Barnett or Keeler
• Van Es (or if we got Barnett, plunder next year's draft to get Gruzewski, around the mid/late 20s)

Draft B

• Hustwaite
• Barnett or Keeler
• Van Es (or the Gruzewski trade up scenario above)

Draft C

• Hayes
• Barnett or Keeler
• Best Inside Mid (e.g D'Aloia)

If pushed, the best balance for me would be Hustwaite, Barnett and Gruzewski. Though since Gruzewski can play at both ends, if we could grab Hewett or Ginbey, then Barnett and Gruz (by trading up), I'd be ecstatic.

 

[RUNVS]

Based on having 17, 20 and 41 (as per draft order with likely bids/matching), I'd be happy with any of these drafts:

Draft A

• Hewett/Ginbey (doubt they'll be available)
• Barnett or Keeler
• Van Es (or if we got Barnett, plunder next year's draft to get Gruzewski, around the mid/late 20s)

Draft B

• Hustwaite
• Barnett or Keeler
• Van Es (or the Gruzewski trade up scenario above)

Draft C

• Hayes
• Barnett or Keeler
• Best Inside Mid (e.g D'Aloia)

To me the perfect draft for us would be

Pick 15 - Hustwaite
Pick 18 - Hayes

 

[Bloods86]

To me the perfect draft for us would be

Pick 15 - Hustwaite
Pick 18 - Hayes

Yeah I'd be happy with that. Then go best ruck or KPF available at our pick 41 (if we had picked up these two, I'd be fine with trading up into the 20s to get Keeler who might be available mid to late 20s). I value this year's draft more than next because of where our depth is in some areas and where we're at in the flag window.

I like the sound of Hustwaite, though partially it's because he has KPD potential too, at least in a break glass scenario. I feel like with Francis, keeping Melican, and if we were to get Hustwaite, we could afford to spend up elsewhere (not on Hayes), then if say Van Es is available at 41, go with him. For me it's all about covering the areas we have needs, but realising we're going to pick a mid with one of our 1st rounders regardless, so I factor that in. There's various scenarios to achieve that, seeing as I struggled to limit it to just 3 potential drafts.

 

[Bloods86]

I could see the argument about getting Jefferson if he is available but even then he doesn't fill a massive need as I am happy with the prospect of our forward line consisting of McDonald, McLean, Amartey, Heeney, Papley and Hayward in the long term. It isn't a forward line that has many holes in it, though arguments could be made that Jefferson would be better than one of Amartey or McLean. We don't really need to draft any forwards though.

To me though we desperate need some big bodied mids for those big games. We also need a KPD to take on the 200cm key forwards but I am not sure which is the bigger need right now.

The problem with a forward line of McDonald, McLean, Amartey being our tall forwards of the future, is that future could be 2024. And then who is developing in the VFL, Hall-Kahan leading the line? It's the same with the pure ruck position. We're a year away from having no ruck at VFL level, nor one who can provide backup to Ladhams.

Let's assume we lose Rampe and one of Melican/Gould next year. We then still have at least one KPD at reserves level, but potentially no KPF or rucks ready to go. I still want another KPD, but reckon at least ruck has slipped past it in terms of priority.

 

[Membling]

Add another to the list, George.

Would be with second first rounder but a lot of talent

 

[RUNVS]

The problem with a forward line of McDonald, McLean, Amartey being our tall forwards of the future, is that future could be 2024. And then who is developing in the VFL, Hall-Kahan leading the line? It's the same with the pure ruck position. We're a year away from having no ruck at VFL level, nor one who can provide backup to Ladhams.

Let's assume we lose Rampe and one of Melican/Gould next year. We then still have at least one KPD at reserves level, but potentially no KPF or rucks ready to go. I still want another KPD, but reckon at least ruck has slipped past it in terms of priority.

I am not too worried about the ruck as while Ladhams isn't perfect I think he will be good enough going forward and hopefully McAndrews continues to develop.

 

[rustycrate]

Yeah I'd be happy with that. Then go best ruck or KPF available at our pick 41 (if we had picked up these two, I'd be fine with trading up into the 20s to get Keeler who might be available mid to late 20s). I value this year's draft more than next because of where our depth is in some areas and where we're at in the flag window.

I like the sound of Hustwaite, though partially it's because he has KPD potential too, at least in a break glass scenario. I feel like with Francis, keeping Melican, and if we were to get Hustwaite, we could afford to spend up elsewhere (not on Hayes), then if say Van Es is available at 41, go with him. For me it's all about covering the areas we have needs, but realising we're going to pick a mid with one of our 1st rounders regardless, so I factor that in. There's various scenarios to achieve that, seeing as I struggled to limit it to just 3 potential drafts.

The usual Swans way is to rookie rucks or trade for them. I agree one of the firsts will target a mid. Like you I would be happy with Hustwaite as Rampe is long in the tooth. So he may have value like another Blakey at 195. The second pick could be a KPD but I don't think so, because we have already picked up Francis and have Melican as well as Gould. What to do with the other first? Agree Keeler and Barnett would cover needs. I'm just not sure. Whatever happens at the first pick could have a flow on effect to the subsequent picks. I would kill to look at Dalrymple's draft order. Even after the draft.

 

[Bloods86]

The usual Swans way is to rookie rucks or trade for them. I agree one of the firsts will target a mid. Like you I would be happy with Hustwaite as Rampe is long in the tooth. So he may have value like another Blakey at 195. The second pick could be a KPD but I don't think so, because we have already picked up Francis and have Melican as well as Gould. What to do with the other first? Agree Keeler and Barnett would cover needs. I'm just not sure. Whatever happens at the first pick could have a flow on effect to the subsequent picks. I would kill to look at Dalrymple's draft order. Even after the draft.

Yeah. I'm fine with going best available at our first, as long as it's an inside mid, or a tall, since we have needs in those areas.

But then spread the love around our other needs from there.

And also, we rarely have a gun ruck division. When we have, we've traded one in, and that's a lot more difficult in the post COLA era. We got fairly lucky with Ladhams wanting out of Port and having us in his sights. Maybe it's worth trying to draft one with a higher pick.

 

[caesar88]

Can hardly imagine a more triggering draft haul than picking up George and Hewett

 

[Dubai Quacker]

The problem with a forward line of McDonald, McLean, Amartey being our tall forwards of the future, is that future could be 2024. And then who is developing in the VFL, Hall-Kahan leading the line? It's the same with the pure ruck position. We're a year away from having no ruck at VFL level, nor one who can provide backup to Ladhams.

Let's assume we lose Rampe and one of Melican/Gould next year. We then still have at least one KPD at reserves level, but potentially no KPF or rucks ready to go. I still want another KPD, but reckon at least ruck has slipped past it in terms of priority.

McLean and Armatey haven’t yet shown they’re A, or even B graders (and time is running out).

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we drafted a medium forward - the Gunston / Breust type. Beyond Hayward, we’re not well stocked with proven performers in that area.

 

[RUNVS]

Can hardly imagine a more triggering draft haul than picking up George and Hewett

Sort of like Hawthorn picking up Mitchell Lewis.