List Mgmt. 2022 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals: Kinnear & Dalrymple - we march to no drum but our own!

[Ticky009]

 

[Maximumlnsanity]

I also reckon Twomey is simply very good at his job.. seems pretty good at putting pieces of each players puzzle together.

Despite him being relatively negative about the Swans (which i put down to Kinnear & Dalrymple giving him nothing!.. oh and the fact his heart lies in Victoria), I like him compared to other journos

Twomey doesn't have an inside source for us, so you're right that's why. He's literally never gotten a first round pick of ours right (excluding academy obvs)

 

[Ticky009]

Twomey doesn't have an inside source for us, so you're right that's why. He's literally never gotten a first round pick of ours right (excluding academy obvs)

Its now a running joke between him and Kinnear, Cal almost always call it out when he interviews him come draft time. Kinnear gives him nothing but white noise, its hilarious.

 

[RUNVS]

Its now a running joke between him and Kinnear, Cal almost always call it out when he interviews him come draft time. Kinnear gives him nothing but white noise, its hilarious.

Yep.

2012 (Pick 23) - Jesse Lonergan
2013 (Pick 15) - Tom Cutler
2014 (Pick 18) - Isaac Heeney
2015 (Pick 3) - Callum Mills
2016 (Pick 11) - Jy Simpkin
2017 (Pick 14) - Luchie O'Brien
2018 (Pick 7) - Nick Blakey
2019 (Pick 5) - Sam Flanders
2020 (Pick 4) - Denver Grainger-Barras
2021 (Pick 18) - Tom Brown

So other than the academy picks Twomey has never got a Swans selection correct, even in the years we had really high draft picks which are easier for him to guess.

 

[ShireSwan]

Beat Sydney's ruckman, beat Sydney

You've convinced me. Let's get Barnett with our first pick, before GWS do.

 

[caesar88]

Yep.

2012 (Pick 23) - Jesse Lonergan
2013 (Pick 15) - Tom Cutler
2014 (Pick 18) - Isaac Heeney
2015 (Pick 3) - Callum Mills
2016 (Pick 11) - Jy Simpkin
2017 (Pick 14) - Luchie O'Brien
2018 (Pick 7) - Nick Blakey
2019 (Pick 5) - Sam Flanders
2020 (Pick 4) - Denver Grainger-Barras
2021 (Pick 18) - Tom Brown

So other than the academy picks Twomey has never got a Swans selection correct, even in the years we had really high draft picks which are easier for him to guess.

Just a theory here, and could come off as arrogant and overly-confident in our recruitment team, but I just wonder if Beatson & co simply do a better and more extensive job of assessing the draftees? Every year I hear from very good sources that the Swans have done multiple interviews with and met the families of x, y and z, that our interest in them is there. And then every year we take a bunch of totally different players.

It's possible my sources are wrong, or lying - I really don't believe they are or I wouldn't post it on here. But I think it's more likely that Beatson & co simply cast a very wide net, keep their options open and are thorough in getting every bit of intel they can on every player of remote interest to them.

Maybe other clubs aren't doing it to that extent. Maybe their focus is more narrowed on a few prospects they really like. So when the likes of Twomey snoop around for a scoop, they hear 2-3 names linked to other clubs, but hear at least half a dozen linked to us, meaning when it's time to predict who we'll take, his chances of a correct call are decreased significantly.

Like I said, just my theory, but it does check out. I mean, just look at our successful draft record against, say, Essendon's, a club Twomey's clearly found very predictable (Francis, Parish, Redman, McGrath, Reid, Hobbs are among the players he's correctly placed). Clearly our recruiters are doing something right that certain other recruiters are not.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Just a theory here, and could come off as arrogant and overly-confident in our recruitment team, but I just wonder if Beatson & co simply do a better and more extensive job of assessing the draftees? Every year I hear from very good sources that the Swans have done multiple interviews with and met the families of x, y and z, that our interest in them is there. And then every year we take a bunch of totally different players.

It's possible my sources are wrong, or lying - I really don't believe they are or I wouldn't post it on here. But I think it's more likely that Beatson & co simply cast a very wide net, keep their options open and are thorough in getting every bit of intel they can on every player of remote interest to them.

Maybe other clubs aren't doing it to that extent. Maybe their focus is more narrowed on a few prospects they really like. So when the likes of Twomey snoop around for a scoop, they hear 2-3 names linked to other clubs, but hear at least half a dozen linked to us, meaning when it's time to predict who we'll take, his chances of a correct call are decreased significantly.

Like I said, just my theory, but it does check out. I mean, just look at our successful draft record against, say, Essendon's, a club Twomey's clearly found very predictable (Francis, Parish, Redman, McGrath, Reid, Hobbs are among the players he's correctly placed). Clearly our recruiters are doing something right that certain other recruiters are not.

Yep x 3. Our folks value the Club's IP. Why other Clubs blab to Twomey is a mystery

 

[Shaq_01]

Interesting - today

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey rates the performances of 30 of 2022's top draft prospects

www.afl.com.au

 

[BloodySwan]

Twomey has us linked to a few of the talls in the first round

 

[Millky95]

Twomey has us linked to a few of the talls in the first round

Makes the most sense

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Gut feel:

We’ll select a successor to Sir Dane.

Josh Weddle, come on down!

Twomey’s latest list puts Weddle at Sydney.

My (speculative) view is that it all comes down to whether Ginbey goes early.

If Ginbey is available to West Coast, they’ll take him & Allan - meaning Busslinger is potentially available to Sydney.

If Ginbey isn’t available to West Coast, they’ll take Allan and Busslinger - under that scenario Sydney is more likely to select Weddle.

 

[SeanM]

Weddle apparently rated highly for being able to lock down on different types of opponents. Which is promising if he is consistently exhibiting defensive craft.

Also got good results at the combine. 6.03 for the 2km is not far off Hollands who had the fastest time at the national combine with 5.54. Looks like he had decent results for the vertical leap and sprints as well. Also at 192cm/92kg seems to be physically developed and may not need to bulk up.

I would not mind if we picked him with an early pick. At 192cm he is not a monster height and similiar height to Gould/Francis. But maybe it is better to have someone at that height who is physically ready and has performed as a lockdown defender. Rather than go for Hayes 199cm but may need a few years to bulk up and seems more interceptor. Or even Busslinger who seems rated as more of a interceptor and not as quick.

Also Weddle seems to have an attacking rebound game using his running ability. So he might have some versatility to play as a medium defender or half back flanker when he first debuts.

 

[ShireSwan]

Twomey’s latest list puts Weddle at Sydney.

My (speculative) view is that it all comes down to whether Ginbey goes early.

If Ginbey is available to West Coast, they’ll take him & Allan - meaning Busslinger is potentially available to Sydney.

If Ginbey isn’t available to West Coast, they’ll take Allan and Busslinger - under that scenario Sydney is more likely to select Weddle.

Do we need Weddle given the numbers of 3rd defender types we already have on the list? Francis, Gould behind Fox and Rampe. (maybe given questions over Gould and Francis turning into much I suppose. He's got a bit of Robbie Fox about him on his highlight film - with our second pick I'd be for it.

Gotta go the marking presence of Barnett with our first pick since we have two rucks departed, Hickey definitely and maybe Reid in his last year. Still not sure on whether McDonald is going to have the attitude to take contested marks inside 50 too, doesn't seem an issue with Barnett at all. We simply MUST take Barnett who looks like Kurt Tippet II with a bit more pace (and Tippet was bloody good when not injured).

Hayes might still be there for our second - he looks an AFL KPD all day too looking at his highlight reel. They're not easy to find.

I'd be mortified if we took Busslinger over Barnett tbh. We have The Lizzard to do that role and will be AA next year doing it. Francis also good at it apparently.

 

[Mathelios]

Do we need Weddle given the numbers of 3rd defender types we already have on the list? Francis, Gould behind Fox and Rampe. (maybe given questions over Gould and Francis turning into much I suppose. He's got a bit of Robbie Fox about him on his highlight film - with our second pick I'd be for it.

Gotta go the marking presence of Barnett with our first pick since we have two rucks departed, Hickey definitely and maybe Reid in his last year. Still not sure on whether McDonald is going to have the attitude to take contested marks inside 50 too, doesn't seem an issue with Barnett at all. We simply MUST take Barnett who looks like Kurt Tippet II with a bit more pace (and Tippet was bloody good when not injured).

Hayes might still be there for our second - he looks an AFL KPD all day too looking at his highlight reel. They're not easy to find.

I'd be mortified if we took Busslinger over Barnett tbh. We have The Lizzard to do that role and will be AA next year doing it. Francis also good at it apparently.

I agree, feel like we are pretty well stocked for “medium defenders”. I really like the look of Barnett and feel like he would be a sensible selection. As for our other first rounder, Jefferson in the unlikely case that he gets through, otherwise Allen, Hustwaite, George maybe Hotton.

 

[Bloods86]

Twomey’s latest list puts Weddle at Sydney.

My (speculative) view is that it all comes down to whether Ginbey goes early.

If Ginbey is available to West Coast, they’ll take him & Allan - meaning Busslinger is potentially available to Sydney.

If Ginbey isn’t available to West Coast, they’ll take Allan and Busslinger - under that scenario Sydney is more likely to select Weddle.

If Twomey's power rankings are correct (though not supposed to be a mock draft), then would we have 15 (+1 because of Ashcroft) and 20 (+ another 2 with Fletcher, Davey Jnr)?

So Busslinger and Weddle. Suspect we'll miss out on Busslinger but what a get that would be. I'd be more inclined to get Hayes, but wouldn't complain about Weddle.

Looking at Twomey's rankings, I'd love to manufacture 3 picks in the 20s to grab Barnett, Gruzewski and Hustwaite.

 

[SeanM]

Barnett looks good in his highlights video. Looks like he can intercept mark around the ground. Good combine results for the sprint and 2km so is quick and already has a tank. Also already solidly built rather than beanpole body type so more chance to debut earlier. No idea how good his ruckwork is.

I feel if we play a young ruck. Then we need someone like Ladhams as a capable 2nd ruck to take the pressure off. Tim English at the bulldogs seems to be a useful player around the ground but needs support at times.

 

[ShireSwan]

I agree, feel like we are pretty well stocked for “medium defenders”. I really like the look of Barnett and feel like he would be a sensible selection. As for our other first rounder, Jefferson in the unlikely case that he gets through, otherwise Allen, Hustwaite, George maybe Hotton.

I think it quite possible both Jefferson and Hustwaite are there for our second. On the highlight reels I'd be more convinced by obviously Allen, but he'll be gone before our first IMO let alone our second. Also more convinced by Hayes & Weddle, possibly Hustwaite with his nice boot than Jefferson who feels like a lucky dip type. (Hustwaite's kicks remind me of Paul Roos a bit, drops it onto his foot facing side-on and seems to just ease it into the right spaces with a bit of arc). Does the game still have room for slow, tall half backs? My question is; is Jeffersen good at junior level just due to being a good size, and does that translate to senior level where everyone is? A lot will depend on attitude I guess. Is he an alpha footy type that is just gonna get after it, or is he a good kid who will fade to nought at senior (ultra testosterone) professional level.

Personally I'm still waiting on McDonald to show me which way he's going to fall in that regard, so not sure on getting another one with another high pick. Amartey also seems a nice guy type, but has some out-and-out athleticism and the body to make a go of being the man up forward. I think he might beat McDonald for a spot this season unless McDonald comes back with a more aggressive attitude and with 5kg of more muscle.

Anyways Barnett + one of Hayes, Weddle.... maaaybe Hustwaite would do me in the first round. If Hayes really came on in a year we'd have the prospect of Tommy McCartin taking Rampe's spot or even going forward again. Certainly great cover at the KPD spot ongoing as Melican seems peripheral now.

Hotton I don't see a need for us, and not knowing him from a bar of soap; he has the look of "I'm staying in Melbourne my entire life" about him too. George - don't want any part of two separate knee injuries in a draft year + no play next year - unless it's a pick in the late 30s/40s.

We probably won't take any of these guys I like...

 

[caesar88]

Twomey linking us to 7 players, none of them inside mids, 5 of them from either Vic Metro or Vic Country.

It's like he just wants to watch this board burn!

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Do we need Weddle given the numbers of 3rd defender types we already have on the list? Francis, Gould behind Fox and Rampe. (maybe given questions over Gould and Francis turning into much I suppose. He's got a bit of Robbie Fox about him on his highlight film - with our second pick I'd be for it.

Gotta go the marking presence of Barnett with our first pick since we have two rucks departed, Hickey definitely and maybe Reid in his last year. Still not sure on whether McDonald is going to have the attitude to take contested marks inside 50 too, doesn't seem an issue with Barnett at all. We simply MUST take Barnett who looks like Kurt Tippet II with a bit more pace (and Tippet was bloody good when not injured).

Hayes might still be there for our second - he looks an AFL KPD all day too looking at his highlight reel. They're not easy to find.

I'd be mortified if we took Busslinger over Barnett tbh. We have The Lizzard to do that role and will be AA next year doing it. Francis also good at it apparently.

Busslinger is a genuine key position defender - the comparison to the Lizard is a bit misplaced.

I’ve seen Busslinger play this year in the WAFL & reckon he’d be a sensational get.

There’s good reason he was touted as a top 5 pick before the shoulder injury.

 

[Dan87]

Busslinger a no brainier if he slides

 

[Kiama Chris]

Just a theory here, and could come off as arrogant and overly-confident in our recruitment team, but I just wonder if Beatson & co simply do a better and more extensive job of assessing the draftees? Every year I hear from very good sources that the Swans have done multiple interviews with and met the families of x, y and z, that our interest in them is there. And then every year we take a bunch of totally different players.

It's possible my sources are wrong, or lying - I really don't believe they are or I wouldn't post it on here. But I think it's more likely that Beatson & co simply cast a very wide net, keep their options open and are thorough in getting every bit of intel they can on every player of remote interest to them.

Maybe other clubs aren't doing it to that extent. Maybe their focus is more narrowed on a few prospects they really like. So when the likes of Twomey snoop around for a scoop, they hear 2-3 names linked to other clubs, but hear at least half a dozen linked to us, meaning when it's time to predict who we'll take, his chances of a correct call are decreased significantly.

Like I said, just my theory, but it does check out. I mean, just look at our successful draft record against, say, Essendon's, a club Twomey's clearly found very predictable (Francis, Parish, Redman, McGrath, Reid, Hobbs are among the players he's correctly placed). Clearly our recruiters are doing something right that certain other recruiters are not.

Judging by what we saw of Stevie J's comments our guys are very thorough and we know for instance that Longmire talked with Ollie's mum so I think your hypothesis holds water.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Barnett looks good in his highlights video. Looks like he can intercept mark around the ground. Good combine results for the sprint and 2km so is quick and already has a tank. Also already solidly built rather than beanpole body type so more chance to debut earlier. No idea how good his ruckwork is.

I feel if we play a young ruck. Then we need someone like Ladhams as a capable 2nd ruck to take the pressure off. Tim English at the bulldogs seems to be a useful player around the ground but needs support at times.

Been plugging Barnett for a very long time now. His ruck work at this level is good. All Australian. Great mark. Good kick. Excellent reader of the ball and can drop behind like Gawn. Well developed for his age and by all accounts a good teammate.
Taking rucks late is BS. If a player is good take him where he is worth taking.
14/15 or 18/19 so what?
If we can get Busslinger or Hayes with the other pick great! If not, Hustwaite or Allan, then take Van Es at 41. If he's gone, the best available mid.
I still have it in my mind that Hustwaite might be the Rampe replacement.

 

[ShireSwan]

Busslinger is a genuine key position defender - the comparison to the Lizard is a bit misplaced.

I’ve seen Busslinger play this year in the WAFL & reckon he’d be a sensational get.

There’s good reason he was touted as a top 5 pick before the shoulder injury.

Fair enough, I thought he was more an intercept type given his thin build.

I'd still rather Barnett over him at our first though, purely on a needs basis given Sinkers, Naismith gone, Hickey likely in last year. Whichever one between the two we didn't take GWS a strong chance to. Collingwood will also take Barnett if available IMO. So Hayes also looks a good KPD for our second, and there aren't any comparable rucks that I know of we can get if we miss out on Barnett. Certainly none that might be ready to go in twelve months like he looks.

Have you seen Hayes play? What'd you think?

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Fair enough, I thought he was more an intercept type given his thin build.

I'd still rather Barnett over him at our first though, purely on a needs basis given Hickey, Naismith gone, Hickey likely in last year. Whichever one between the two we didn't take GWS a strong chance to. Collingwood will also take Barnett if available IMO. So Hayes also looks a good KPD for our second, and there aren't any comparable rucks that I know of we can get if we miss out on Barnett. Certainly none that might be ready to go in twelve months like he looks.

Have you seen Hayes play? What'd you think?

Haven’t seen Hayes - I only get a chance to see the WA based players.

 

[Maximumlnsanity]

My takes on the Twomey Power Rankings:

- We're going 1 small forward and 1 KPP just based on the 8 players linked to us.

- Midfield is not on the cards at all unless someone from the top 10 slides. No links to Hustwaite, Hewett, or Charlie Clarke. Nothing to Ed Allan but that's likely because he's bolted out of our range. The only mid linked to is Hollands and it's more of a "we'd be daft not to pick him if he slides" link.

- Twomey has linked us to all 3 pure small forwards in our range and not Mid/Fwd Hotton. Davey Jr is obviously off limits unless we trade up to scare off Essendon, Konstanty is damn near certain to go to GWS unless we jump at 14, so the most likely one is Brayden George. No I'm not drawing that conclusion because I'm a massive George fan I swear.

- KPP just seems inevitable because we're linked to almost every single one after the top 10. No word on Lewis Hayes is disappointing as I'd prefer him to Weddle. A Jefferson/Busslinger slide falling into our hands would work out perfectly and is definitely on the cards. Personally I'd prefer Busslinger but I wouldn't mind either

 

[sataris]

Yep.

2012 (Pick 23) - Jesse Lonergan
2013 (Pick 15) - Tom Cutler
2014 (Pick 18) - Isaac Heeney
2015 (Pick 3) - Callum Mills
2016 (Pick 11) - Jy Simpkin
2017 (Pick 14) - Luchie O'Brien
2018 (Pick 7) - Nick Blakey
2019 (Pick 5) - Sam Flanders
2020 (Pick 4) - Denver Grainger-Barras
2021 (Pick 18) - Tom Brown

So other than the academy picks Twomey has never got a Swans selection correct, even in the years we had really high draft picks which are easier for him to guess.

The best part (for me) is the posts after this one, that take anything he says/writes seriously in any manner.

As if his power rankings have any merit or meaning.